Pat Dean love...and are things begining to finally change?

[laloesch]

 

Dean has a 6.7% swinging strike rate. For comparison Milone has a career swinging strike rate of 8.3%, Kevin Correia has a career swinging strike rate of 7.1%, Scott Diamond has a career swinging strike rate of 6.4%, Cole DeVries had a swinging strike rate of 7.5%, Vance Worley has swinging strike rate of 5.6%, Andrew Albers has a swinging strike rate of 6.5%, and everybody's favorite- Nick Blackburn- had a swinging strike rate of 5.3%. 

 

So yeah, Dean is a AAAA pitcher at best in the AL. If he can limit walks and homeruns- he could be a #5 in the NL in a pitchers' park. 

 

Last nights start against the A's wasn't so good.   I think better teams will hit him hard. 

[Shane Wahl]

I don't mind guys like Dean getting some chance in the majors. I like rewarding players like that (free James Beresford) in a time where the MLB team is terrible.

 

But he will not last as a starter. I guarantee that. It is still even conceivable that Tyler Duffey's best role will be setup man with that solid fastball and great curve.

 

I have a hard time believing that the Twins scouted Centeno and Grossman THAT much and that this isn't just some dumb luck. 

 

I think things are slowly being corrected. Now: I really want to see Plouffe, Nunez, Tonkin, Suzuki, and Dozier traded. I would be happy with three of them traded. Meh if two are traded. Upset if only one is traded. Irate in none of them are traded.

[jokin]

 

The question now is how many starts did Dean earn with the initial success? I say 2 more like this and the gig is up. I wish May was pitching better.

 

May's last 5 games:

 

FIP- 0.64

K/BB- 8

K% - BB%= 53.9%

K%- 61.5%

K/9- 18

Hits- 0

BB- 1

[Otto von Ballpark]

And someone speculated Centeno has been a good match for Trevor May.  For what it's worth, he has caught May's last 3 scoreless appearances (although he also caught his 2 HR clunker vs Detroit a few weeks ago).

 

Would be interesting to see those two paired as a starting battery.

[DocBauer]

Buxton is up, and Kepler, by injury or fortune sake. The Twins have stated they will play.

 

Centeno may or may not be a decent backup catcher. But he's playing, not sitting on the bench in favor of Suzuki.

 

Yes Duffey is up. And yes he was up last year. But he began the year in the minors. Now he's up and starting over Hughes or Milone. Dean is starting over Hughes or Milone, regardless of his ultimate floor and/or ceiling.

 

Hughes has been demoted to the pen regardless of contract.

 

We still need to over Nolasco and Plouffe. Maybe Dozier. Theres work that absolutely needs to be done. But I think to say there hasn't been the beginning of some sense of change in approach here is a bit naive.

[Badsmerf]

 

May's last 5 games:

 

FIP- 0.64

K/BB- 8

K% - BB%= 53.9%

K%- 61.5%

K/9- 18

Hits- 0

BB- 1

That's nice. 

 

Previous 5

FIP- 16.62

K/BB- 5

K%-BB%= 16%

K%- 20%

K/9- 13.5

Hard hit- 47.5%

 

His recent outings have been fine. Perhaps he was going through something? Hopefully he can turn the page and get a shot in the rotation before the year is up. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Doc, your original list was written before Kepler came back, right? And it included such names as Mastroianni, Grossman, Rosario, Tonkin, Pressly -- I really had no idea what it was you were trying to say.

 

Buxton was the opening day CF. How is it really a change of approach for him to start at the beginning of June with every other CF on the DL? Kepler starting over Arcia -- what is the change of approach there, exactly? They have been starting everyone over Arcia lately.

 

Centeno has started 10 of 24 games, although 3 of those Suzuki was explicity out with injury. talk about baby steps...

 

Don't look now, but Hughes is starting again tonight, and if it goes well I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick if/when Gibson finally returns. (And even if Dean sticks around longer, he seems exactly the kind of low upside starter the Twins always give a nice long loom before inevitably cutting them after the season, not really a useful change in approach)

 

A change of approach would be a veteran finally, truly getting benched or traded, May getting back in the rotation, an aggressive bullpen addition with upside, etc. I just can't get excited about "signs of change" like Pat Dean in the rotation, Juan Centeno starting 2-3 times per week, and what outfielders they use with 3 OF on the DL.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Has anyone heard who was going to be sent down for Gibson before he begged off with a sore back? I have this irrational hope that it's May going down to be stretched out for 3 starts and come back as a starter.

If we still have 13 pitchers, no reason he can't be stretched out in the majors.

[drivlikejehu]

 

We still need to over Nolasco and Plouffe. Maybe Dozier. Theres work that absolutely needs to be done. But I think to say there hasn't been the beginning of some sense of change in approach here is a bit naive.

 

That's not a valid statement at all. Quite to the contrary - it's incredibly naive to declare the Twins are changing based on them doing the same things they have always done. They have demoted or waived/released players countless times over the years. 

[ashbury]

I got to watch Dean in person yesterday. Not that I would gain that much less just from watching him on teevee. He has learned the art of pitching, I suppose, given the lack of overpowering stuff, and as a lefty he has some value to an organization. But he clearly showed trouble yesterday putting batters away. And so, when bad luck hits (a couple of two-out two-strike hits that I recall, being just barely too difficult for an infielder to convert to an out), he's prone to letting a run in that a pitcher with better stuff might have stranded or never put on base in the first place.

 

I don't remember right now who the higher-upside choices might have been for his 40-man spot over the winter, but adding him seemed a bet with very little to win except bragging rights of spotting another marginal major league piece that no one else recognized.

[ashbury]

I guess you could set things up in advance and limit Dean to 4-5 innings, although I'm not sure what you do if he starts well.

Pat him on the butt, say to him "nice job," and hope for the same good fortune five days hence?

[Otto von Ballpark]

How do you do that? Have him basically split games with someone like Dean? It seems like he would need to be put on an every 5 day kind of schedule and slowly build up innings. I guess you could set things up in advance and limit Dean to 4-5 innings, although I'm not sure what you do if he starts well. You could stretch him out as a long reliever but there's no certainty that he will get the every 5 day opportunity. Although, with this starting rotation...

It isn't that hard. Just start pitching him longer and giving him more rest between appearances. If another starter has a superlative performance and doesn't need much relief, treat it like a rainout for May and have him appear the next day. And as soon as he is ready to throw 3-4 innings, probably pretty quickly, you can let him start and Dean, Hughes etc. relieve -- heck, we did it last August in a pennant race, we can sure as heck do it given out 2016 record.

[jokin]

 

That's nice. 

 

Previous 5

FIP- 16.62

K/BB- 5

K%-BB%= 16%

K%- 20%

K/9- 13.5

Hard hit- 47.5%

 

His recent outings have been fine. Perhaps he was going through something? Hopefully he can turn the page and get a shot in the rotation before the year is up. 

 

To paraphrase a wise sage... A journey of 1000 appearances back into the starting rotation has to start with the first step... followed by.... 5 consecutive lights-out relief appearances.

 

Whatever the case may be, your point is valid, he was getting rocked not too long ago, and has done remarkably better, of late. If only this club had 5 better starters than him (/sarc), and 5 up-and-coming flame throwing, major-league-ready prospects to assume May's current misplaced role...  something that we have been assured were on the way by the FO for far too long now.

[Mr. Brooks]

How do you do that? Have him basically split games with someone like Dean? It seems like he would need to be put on an every 5 day kind of schedule and slowly build up innings. I guess you could set things up in advance and limit Dean to 4-5 innings, although I'm not sure what you do if he starts well. You could stretch him out as a long reliever but there's no certainty that he will get the every 5 day opportunity. Although, with this starting rotation...

Start 1: 50 pitch count

Start 2: 65 pitch count

Start 3; 80 pitch count

 

That gets you roughly 4 innings then 5 innings then 6. Any decent manager should be able to fill the rest with the army of relievers we are carrying right now.

[jimmer]

Is Meyer alive?

[DocBauer]

Doc, your original list was written before Kepler came back, right? And it included such names as Mastroianni, Grossman, Rosario, Tonkin, Pressly -- I really had no idea what it was you were trying to say.

Buxton was the opening day CF. How is it really a change of approach for him to start at the beginning of June with every other CF on the DL? Kepler starting over Arcia -- what is the change of approach there, exactly? They have been starting everyone over Arcia lately.

Centeno has started 10 of 24 games, although 3 of those Suzuki was explicity out with injury. talk about baby steps...

Don't look now, but Hughes is starting again tonight, and if it goes well I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick if/when Gibson finally returns. (And even if Dean sticks around longer, he seems exactly the kind of low upside starter the Twins always give a nice long loom before inevitably cutting them after the season, not really a useful change in approach)

A change of approach would be a veteran finally, truly getting benched or traded, May getting back in the rotation, an aggressive bullpen addition with upside, etc. I just can't get excited about "signs of change" like Pat Dean in the rotation, Juan Centeno starting 2-3 times per week, and what outfielders they use with 3 OF on the DL.

Yes, the ORIGINAL post was before Kepler's return it was before the recent Gibson setback.

 

If my original post didn't make sense to you, my point was simply that I was and am seeing minor changes that I didn't feel you would have previously seen from this regime.there is a TON left to do for sure. But at the time of writing, before additional injuries and relapses happened, they FO wasn't operating by their previous mantras.

 

Again, when is the last time they took a high salaried SP and moved him to the bullpen and kept a rookie in the rotation? A lot of us were disappointed in the far more talented Berrios lacking control but not getting another start or two. Instead of keeping Hughes in the rotation, or promoting veteran Milone, they are allowing Dean a shot. They probably screwed up with Duffey during ST, but rectified that situation by bringing him back pretty quickly.

 

While Mastroianni wasn't a good choice to bring up, they did so as a bench option in order to KEEP Buxton and Kepler in Rochester for experience, a groove, and probably some confidence as well. At least, that was the plan originally. SOME kind of plan is better than the helter skelter way the roster seemed constructed. Same with Grossman...who MIGHT be a solid 4th OF signing...bringing him up and again keeping the young OF down, including sending Rosario down.

 

Still a long way to go, but it looked like an approach, some kind of approach, with some logic behind it.

[DocBauer]

That's not a valid statement at all. Quite to the contrary - it's incredibly naive to declare the Twins are changing based on them doing the same things they have always done. They have demoted or waived/released players countless times over the years.

 

We're going to agree to disagree on this.

 

The previous way the Twins did things would have been to keep Hughes in the rotation because of money and seniority. Even last year, they blindly kept Pelfrey in the rotation and moved May to the pen. After sending Milone down, last year, they brought him back up. Now, they are allowing Dean to pitch...no clue what he may do with the opportunity...and keeping Milone down.

 

Mastroianni was a poor choice of a potential call up. Grossman just may have been a solid spare OF. But they were brought up to keep Buxton and Kepler down and getting AAA time, and sending down Rosario to do the same. You can agree or disagree with them being at AAA is the right idea or not, but at least they were showing that had a form of a plan.

 

Centeno may end up being nothing. He may be a solid backup. We don't know. But the Twins have shown a reluctance to catch almost anyone other than Suzuki, even the other options weren't necessarily good ones. So instead of a poor performing veteran getting the nod due to seniority and/or contract, Centeno has played a lot, and far more than any other catching option the past couple of years.

 

And now, with Buxton and Kepler back up due to injuries, they are playing every day. Something we all complained about didn't happen earlier in the year, or last year even. So while there is a lot of work to still be done, there seems to be a shift in the whole "scholarship" situation many have complained about in the past.

 

Perkins, Hughes and Santana may be untradable. Nolasco may be. Plouffe should be. Dozier is a hard one to call, but may be. Doing what can be done here would further the idea of a change in approach, as well as help open doors for additional promotions.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I also don't trust him because he has 2 first names. Oh, and he just isn't that good at all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Again, when is the last time they took a high salaried SP and moved him to the bullpen and kept a rookie in the rotation?

About a month ago, with Milone? His salary is almost as high as Pelfrey's was last year. Last year they optioned Milone too in favor of May, although his salary wasn't quite as high then. They actually did demote Pelfrey to the pen very briefly (although still longer than Hughes' pen demotion so far, thanks to Gibson's DL extension). They have dropped Liriano, Slowey, Silva, etc. to the pen in the past. They released Jason Marquis at the end of May 2012. (It is a bit of a trick question you are asking too, because they never had many high salary players until a few years ago.)

 

What do you think the old Twins would have done when a starting pitcher publicly admitted having trouble throwing 60-70 pitches?

 

What do you think the old Twins would have done with 3 outfielders on the DL? In fact, some evidence suggests they just recalled Buxton to fill a short term need against their judgement of his readiness or development needs -- something they have done almost annually with Buxton, Hicks and Gomez.

 

The old Twins signed and played Jordan Schafer to demote Hicks, just like promoting Mastro to demote Buxton.

 

Would the old Twins not have signed and played Grossman? Would the old Twins not have buried Arcia? They did just last year.

 

I guess it is nice that Suzuki is taking an extra day or two off per week, although they actually did that briefly two years ago when they first signed Suzuki and spotted starts for Pinto too (and Pinto at the time was a higher upside option than Centeno is now).

 

Getting encouraged by these "trends" over recent roster messes is a little like getting encouraged by our "improved" but still terrible record since our 0-9 start. I guess it is not as bad as it could be, but not a lot has really changed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Put another way, if they were still playing Suzuki 6 games a week at his current performance level, still 100% committed to Hughes as a SP with a 60-70 pitch limit, and still parking Kepler on the bench or in AAA while starting infielders in the outfield again, after everything that has happened, that would be the definition of insanity.

 

The fact that they are not insane is hardly a very encouraging trend. It is more like the bare minimum expectation for a front office with a pulse.

[Shane Wahl]

I am surprised at this point that Rogers is in the bullpen and Dean is starting. That's just weird as hell to me.

[jokin]

 

Is Meyer alive?

 

D B Cooper and Elvis have both had more confirmed sightings.

[jokin]

 

 

 

 

I don't remember right now who the higher-upside choices might have been for his 40-man spot over the winter, but adding him seemed a bet with very little to win except bragging rights of spotting another marginal major league piece that no one else recognized.

 

Hey, you didn't think TR was going to win Executive of the Year this season by just signing Abad, Centeno and Rex Grossman? Our GM has mad roster-ing skillz with the lesser-talented prospects... ***

 

 

*** (he even is utterly unafraid at bringing the most marginal and unwanted guys back for an encore [Albers, Mastro]). Yohan Pino has an ERA of just under 6.00 in Korea- right around Albers' level of performance there last year- thus, I'm sure Pino's on the short list for his own Twins encore on the 2017 Twins SP extended depth chart.

[ashbury]

I am surprised at this point that Rogers is in the bullpen and Dean is starting. That's just weird as hell to me.

Dean has no value I can see in a bullpen, for whatever it's worth. Innings eater for a bad team, is the best role I can come up with.

[Rosterman]

 

I am surprised at this point that Rogers is in the bullpen and Dean is starting. That's just weird as hell to me.

The Twins are looking at Rogers as a long man from the left side, and probably has more leeway than Dean, or will be battling Logan Darnell for a similar position in the Twins system. Dean right now will remain on the 40-man as insurance for Rogers and a token lefty starter possibility. Darnell would have to be added back, and unless he shines, he will move on.

 

We basically lost Zach Jones to Milwaukee in the Rule 5 because of Darnell and Dean. I would really doubt that either would've been grabbed in the Rule 5 (and Darnell wasn't during his recent waiver-wire stint).

 

You have to like Dean. You also have to admire Duffey. Both have to work their butts off to stay in the major leagues and time will tell if they are another Albers, or Kris Johnson, or any number of other one-shot wonders. But anything decent on a major league level can translate into a fine payday in the international market, perhaps.

 

[drivlikejehu]

Duffey and Dean are not at all alike.

 

Anyway, spycake's post is exactly right, and highlights the absurd way some posters are evaluating moves. The Twins FO isn't even compared to other MLB front offices, which is their actual competition, but instead to some bogus standard of 100% perfect incompetence.

 

Oh look, not every single move was completely foolhardy, what a great sign of progress!

 

That is the straw man I referred to originally. This isn't about whether they sometimes call up the right person from AAA, especially when there are no alternatives. Who cares? The organization has been a disaster for years and it is nonsensical at best to focus in on irrelevant, minor transactions when the big picture is what matters.

 

The Twins as an organization do not have the infrastructure required to win in 2016 and beyond, without a shadow of a doubt. And until they take steps to address that problem, all those little moves are background noise, signifying nothing.