Let's Start Over

[Loosey]

Let’s start over.  Way over.  If you were GM of the Twins and you could go back to last October 5th (the day after the final game of the season) what would you do differently know what you know now?

Here is a list of offseason moves the Twins made from October 5th to the beginning of the season:
1) Torii Hunter Retires
2) Signed Dan Runzler to Minor League Deal
3) Traded Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy
4) Signed Joe Benson to Minor League Deal – Released in spring
5) Signed Aaron Thompson to Minor League Deal – Released in spring
6) Signed Juan Centeno to Minor League Deal
7) Signed Byung Ho Park
8) Acquired John Hicks (waivers)
9) Signed Buddy Boshers to Minor League Deal
10) Signed Darin Mastroianni to Minor League Deal
11) Signed Brandon Kintzler to Minor League Deal
12) Signed Fernando Abad to Minor League Deal
13) Signed Ryan Sweeney to Minor League Deal – Released in spring
14) Arbitration signing – Tommy Milone
15) Arbitration signing – Eduardo Escobar
16) Arbitration signing – Eduardo Nunez
17) Arbitration signing – Casey Fien
18) Signed – Kevin Jepson
19) Signed – Trevor Plouffe
20) Signed Carlos Quentin to Minor League Deal – Released in spring
Wow!  When you look at the list of signings and re-signings done in the offseason as a whole, it is really pathetic.  I mean what on that list would have made this team better?  Byung Ho Park was an incremental gain and the Aaron Hicks trade was meant to be a lift to the Catcher position.  Outside of that everything else was status quo and minor league signings.  Not one major league free agent outside of Park.  No real backup plans in case the youngsters didn’t work out.
Now what could have been done differently?
First of all the Joe Benson, Ryan Sweeney, Carlos Quentin signings were extremely worthless in my opinion.  They had no shot of making the major league roster and took spring training at bats away from guys like Buxton and Kepler. 
1) Trade Trevor Plouffe.  I know the market was not great, and was actually pretty bad in terms of returns for 3rd basemen.  But if the Twins could look at it as more than just trading Plouffe, instead getting incremental gains by being able to put players in correct positions as well as whatever the return for Plouffe would be. (Plouffe Skywalker day is over so they can trade him now)
2) Do not re-sign Jepsen and Fien let Milone walk.  Opens up two other RP roles and a SP opening.   There were lots of options out there and they didn’t appear interested in exploring any.  I get they don’t want to block younger arms, but we have yet to see one of those arms up here.  I like the Fernando Abad deal so far so that is a good one but then they should have added ML arms. Steve Cishek would have been nice for starters and maybe a 2nd veteran arm like Neftali Feliz. Both are shorter term deal (2 years and 1 year with current team) Also, its like the Twins forget they can trade players they recently signed if they build up value and have younger replacements ready to backfill. . .
3) Trevor May is now a starter.
4) Don’t trade Aaron Hicks. I get the thought here, but don’t do it.  Having his defense in the outfield while Buxton is in AAA would be nice.  Also, would have given the Twins flexibility to keep Buxton at AAA to start the season and not sign Benson, Sweeney, Quentin, and Mastro + Grossman later on.
5) Actually go out and sign a catcher.  The White Sox signed 3 of them in the offseason.  The guy I thought the Twins could have gone and got was Giovani Soto.
6) Sign Byung Ho Park.  This has worked out so far.  Compare him to the DH’s the Twins have had hitting the last few years. 
7) Sign another Veteran Outfielder like Rajai Davis.
I know this is all hindsight.  But many of these suggestions were mentioned on TD during the offseason.  So it isn’t like I just cherry picking players who are performing well.  Also, this would not change the team to playoff team, but would hopefully make them respectable.
The Opening Day Roster would have looked like this:
Outfield
Aaron Hicks
Rajai Davis
Oswaldo Arcia
Eddie Rosario

Infield
Joe Mauer
Brian Dozier
Miguel Sano
Eduardo Escobar
Eduardo Nunez

Super Utility
Danny Santana

DH
Byung Ho Park

Catcher
Kurt Suzuki
Giovani Soto

Starting Pitchers
Phil Hughes
Ervin Santana
Ricky Nolasco
Kyle Gibson
Trevor May

Relief Pitchers
Glen Perkins
Fernando Abad
Steve Cishek
Neftali Feliz
Ryan Pressly
Michael Tonkin
Tyler Duffey

In this scenario the Twins would have left most of the youngsters in AAA but there would be flexibility to promote or replace opening roster players who became injured. 

This flies in the face of everything Terry Ryan and the Twins said their plan was during the offseason, but clearly the youth movement didn’t work in reality and giving them AAA time is probably what would have been best from the start of the season.  They are all in AAA now in reality.  So this roster construction would have been of great benefit for the Twins in my opinion.   Hindsight is 20/20.  What would everyone else have done differently?

[Shane Wahl]

Wow, thanks for taking the time to set this up. I am *FULLY* engaged in alternative realities right now, so I will think up some answers. I didn't do a blueprint in the offseason at all, because I thought some things were just pretty straight forward. And then TR ran it all into the ground.

[Shane Wahl]

And seeing that 1-20 here like this is indisputable proof that it is time for someone completely new to run this organization.

[Loosey]

 

And seeing that 1-20 here like this is indisputable proof that it is time for someone completely new to run this organization.

Yeah, the 20 moves when put together as a whole off season actually shocked me as to how bad of an off season it really was.  Outside of Park what did they do? 

[Shane Wahl]

 

Yeah, the 20 moves when put together as a whole off season actually shocked me as to how bad of an off season it really was.  Outside of Park what did they do? 

 

Some pretty dumb luck on Centeno (for whatever he will end up bringing) and Abad. That's basically it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Good work. (You, not the front office.)

 

I agree #1 on the list is trade Plouffe, or if you prefer, move him to another position. This is because Sano could be a generational talent.

 

The Twins might also consider the value of having a loogy in the bullpen, though that would probably clock in at about 79th on your list.

[bird]

 

Some pretty dumb luck on Centeno (for whatever he will end up bringing) and Abad. That's basically it.

 

 

I love it. Dumb luck on the two moves you think worked. And on the eighteen that you think didn't, just dumb. Perfect.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hindsight is 20/20.  Not a fan of these types of threads b/c its easy to look back and say "I wouldn't have done it" with anything that didn't work and "yes by all means" by anything that did work.  I think if you really want to be fair, go look up the offseason plans that were written last November. 

 

As for what was done.  I have no issues with minor league signings (nor should anyone).  I probably wouldn't have released Sweeney.  To be honest on Park, I suspect most of us would have never even bothered (even though it's looking like an absolute steal).  Yeah, I think we'd all have done a few things differently, but I'm not certain the results would be much better.

[DaveW]

 

Let’s start over.  Way over.  If you were GM of the Twins and you could go back to last October 5th (the day after the final game of the season) what would you do differently know what you know now?

Resigned and let some sorely new blood take over.

[DaveW]

 

 

Yeah, the 20 moves when put together as a whole off season actually shocked me as to how bad of an off season it really was.  Outside of Park what did they do? 

Abad was a good signing, tendering Nunez was the right thing to do (I was against it).

The other "non" bad moves were no brainers: like tendering Escobar and Plouffe contracts.

The one move that hasn't worked out that I don't mind is tendering Jepsen a contract, while it was likely he was going to regress a little from his outstanding 2015 as a Twin, I don't think any of us saw this large a drop off.

 

The five decisions that still frustrate me the most:

1. The utter lack of actually trying to go out and fix/improve the bullpen in any sort of legitimate way.

1a. Not trading Plouffe and sticking Sano in RF.

2. Hicks for Murphy, hated it then, hate it now.

3. Not moving May back into the rotation.

4. Not letting Duffey start the year in the major league rotation.

 

Those are were all very terrible moves and the results have been terrible.

[old nurse]

Rajal Davis is replacement level. You must be thinking the team would get the 2009 version. That was a long time ago.

Aaaron Hicks is still playing below replacement level.  As many players do, he recently had a good week that gives the players something to hope for.

Tyler Duffey. You want to stick the best starter in the bullpen

[Loosey]

 

Rajal Davis is replacement level. You must be thinking the team would get the 2009 version. That was a long time ago.

Aaaron Hicks is still playing below replacement level.  As many players do, he recently had a good week that gives the players something to hope for.

Tyler Duffey. You want to stick the best starter in the bullpen

I'd take replacement level at this point.

[DaveW]

 

Rajal Davis is replacement level. You must be thinking the team would get the 2009 version. That was a long time ago.

Aaaron Hicks is still playing below replacement level.  As many players do, he recently had a good week that gives the players something to hope for.

Tyler Duffey. You want to stick the best starter in the bullpen

Few things: Rajal Davis absolutely is not replacement level. Replacement level is 0.0 WAR, Davis has pretty much been between 1.3 and 1.8 the past few years, not earth shattering, but not replacement level. He has is average at the plate (not replacement level) and already has a 1.0 WAR this season thus far (on pace for 4, but will probably end up 2-3)

 

Not so Fun fact: Aaron Hicks is still playing a lot better overall then the following players:

Murphy- who he was traded for

Buxton- who replaced him

Rosario- Who the Twins kept around instead of Hicks

 

 

[jokin]

 

I love it. Dumb luck on the two moves you think worked. And on the eighteen that you think didn't, just dumb. Perfect.

 

Strictly based on your own specific math criteria... even if the two moves that worked were sheer genius on the part of the GM- that means Terry is still batting .100 on the season.

 

Not perfect

[bird]

 

Strictly based on your own specific math criteria... even if the two moves that worked were sheer genius on the part of the GM- that means Terry is still batting .100 on the season.

 

Not perfect

 

 

That was my pal Shane's math. But hey, I appreciate that you guys share that it was a lousy off-season for  Ryan and the Twins. Good information.

[Platoon]

Is it possible to consider that the retirement of Torii Hunter was the highlight of the Twins off season? (please set your snark meters to 50%).

And I was "meh. On the Hicks/Murphy trade, and still am. I don't really think Murphy will end up a lost cause. That said, I am not sure that the motivation for the trade was talent level oriented. I think Ryan wanted Hicks outa here at any cost.

As for the rest of the year end decisions, they'd didn't seem good at the time, but when you see them printed out, all in a row, they seem more like incomprehensible.

I was not and am not against moving on the the younger talent, but I do wish it seemed like Molitor was more in tune with this program. Rumor has it he was Pohlads choice? If that is true, it would explain some of the unexplained actions that have occurred this year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I love it. Dumb luck on the two moves you think worked. And on the eighteen that you think didn't, just dumb. Perfect.

 

This is a fair take, btw......

[HitInAPinch]

 

Hindsight is 20/20.  Not a fan of these types of threads b/c its easy to look back and say "I wouldn't have done it" with anything that didn't work and "yes by all means" by anything that did work.  I think if you really want to be fair, go look up the offseason plans that were written last November. 

 

As for what was done.  I have no issues with minor league signings (nor should anyone).  I probably wouldn't have released Sweeney.  To be honest on Park, I suspect most of us would have never even bothered (even though it's looking like an absolute steal).  Yeah, I think we'd all have done a few things differently, but I'm not certain the results would be much better.

I would "Like" your comment, but somehow I'm out of "Like's"  

 

Yeah, I'd say this is a pretty big dollop of Hindsight.  Those minor league signings were to fill up the Spring Training rosters.  The "gee, would could have signed all these great plays" I always follow with the question:  "You think great players would want to sign with the Twins?"  Who ever expected Buxton to fall as hard as he did.  Rosario, I'll now admit, was expected.  Same with Dozier, Hughes, Nolasco Jepsen, etc.

 

To accomplish what everyone seems to want [ instance success ] we'd need a new, big pockets, owner.  Funny another article posted recently is exactly the type of owner the Twins really need:  Donald Trump. 

[DaveW]

 

This is a fair take, btw......

Especially when considering that the Twins are now on pace for one of the 3 or 4 worst seasons in the history of baseball.

 

It's not like the Twins are a game or two under .500 and people are over-reacting. The season is 25% over and it has been a complete disaster.

[DaveW]

 

 

 The "gee, would could have signed all these great plays" I always follow with the question:  "You think great players would want to sign with the Twins?" 

There is no reason why guys like Cruz, Davis, Fowler, etc wouldn't come to Minnesota if Minnesota was offering them the money. I mean they were able to get Santana, Hughes, Nolasco to come to Minnesota...

 

They even had enough money/ability to go out and get an ace type guy like Cueto that multiple of us suggested, a guy who has exactly one less win in 2016 than the Minnesota Twins! Signing Cueto alone would have made this team almost 2x as successful as they have been thus far

[bird]

 

This is a fair take, btw......

 

 

To you it is. It's not an opinion I agree with, but the obvious point about poor decisions is more important, and on that we agree.

 

I'd simply remind you that poor decisions can have good outcomes and vice versa, and I think fair-minded folk will remind themselves of a few reasonable decisions out there among Shane's 20 in which the outcome just hasn't cooperated. This doesn't in any way suggest Ryan didn't make a whole lot of really questionable moves. It just means that, to use one example, not trading Plouffe wasn't necessarily the idiotic decision a handful of posters like to portray it to be.

 

It's possible to be both critical and fair-minded for some, but maybe there are a few for which this is not within their realm of capability.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To you it is. It's not an opinion I agree with, but the obvious point about poor decisions is more important, and on that we agree.

 

I'd simply remind you that poor decisions can have good outcomes and vice versa, and I think fair-minded folk will remind themselves of a few reasonable decisions out there among Shane's 20 in which the outcome just hasn't cooperated. This doesn't in any way suggest Ryan didn't make a whole lot of really questionable moves. It just means that, to use one example, not trading Plouffe wasn't necessarily the idiotic decision a handful of posters like to portray it to be.

 

It's possible to be both critical and fair-minded for some, but maybe there are a few for which this is not within their realm of capability.

 

No, i mean your sarcastic response is fair.....saying all good moves are luck, and all bad moves are not luck.....I agree with your statement 100%, that is BS. You can't say that all good is luck, and all bad is not luck. So, we are on teh same side on this one.

 

We are also on the same side that absolutes are not fair.....

[TheLeviathan]

I think this offseason unraveled at the point of deciding on Plouffe/Sano.  

 

Everything else spiraled out of control from there.  Well, that and the complete unwillingness to add to the bullpen despite claims that it was a need.

[Vanimal46]

Yep, the decision very early in the off-season to keep Plouffe, and move Sano to the OF set off a chain of events that has not worked out in the team's favor. Many of us on this board, including myself, were confused as to why the Twins went after another DH in Park, but it's turned out to be a bright spot in the off-season. 

I can't get that worked up about minor league signings. Abad has worked out very well. What I can get worked up about is claiming that fixing the bullpen was a "top priority" and only dumpster dive for players on minor league contracts. I trusted that they knew how ready the young, awesome minor league arms were. They've been wrong 2 years in a row with that judgment. 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

No Twins fan bats 1.000 in their opinions, nor does any GM ever bat 1.000 in their offseason moves.

 

Lots of people (not just on this thread) continue to claim this is a bunch of hindsight. First of all, who cares? This is an Internet discussion board. Secondly, many of the things these same posters wish were hindsight are not hindsight at all. I get it, nobody sees every thread and things get missed. However, Shane has been arguing to try an Arcia/Hicks platoon in RF since before Torii Hunter was signed last season and I joined him. Their batting splits looked really advantageous for that. Hicks could also give you plus defense in right field at the end of games. Having so many corner infielders might cause a problem. Not hindsight. Also, bullpen problems. Who could have predicted that, right?

 

Again, no fan bats a thousand. No GM bats a thousand. We are all trying to figure this out. So instead of coming on the thread solely to denigrate the OP, offer some ideas of your own, or piggy back on some one else's. What are the Twins ideas that are working? If a few people feel that questioning the front office reveals ignorance, then so be it. rant over.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No Twins fan bats 1.000 in their opinions, nor does any GM ever bat 1.000 in their offseason moves.

snip......

Again, no fan bats a thousand. No GM bats a thousand. We are all trying to figure this out. So instead of coming on the thread solely to denigrate the OP, offer some ideas of your own, or piggy back on some one else's. What are the Twins ideas that are working? If a few people feel that questioning the front office reveals ignorance, then so be it. rant over.

 

I agree with this 100%. 

[Jham]

To avoid analysis skewed by hindsight, and then I may be missing the whole point of the thread I guess, we can look at the 20 moves as a whole and speak in general terms about the process without judging based on results.  

It is abundantly clear in looking at the moves that we took almost no risks.  Regardless of how the moves turned out, every single move on the list was conservative, even the addition of Park who Ryan has admitted he was surprised the Twins won the bid, and then look at the contract.  

This off-season conservatism followed some of the more brash moves made by the organization (Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, Hunter) following a need to try to get back to relevance.  Aggression which actually worked out, much to the chagrin of those hoping to build only from within.  

The tentativeness has plagued the team for years now.  It looks like a sheer lack of confidence from our management/scouts.  We continually overvalue our prospects with no clue as to which ones are ready, which ones will produce, and which won't.  We continue to expose their flaws in trial runs that kill trade value and diminish the built in advantage we have of having more complete scouting on our prospects than our opponents.  We continue to add expensive mid-level free agents who offer little trade value, command longer contracts, and block development.  Basically, we're afraid to trade prospects because we don't trust our scouting.  We're afraid to trade veterans because we don't like the value of return.  We put ourselves in situations where we have to sign guys that perpetuate the problem.  The team needs to take what it can for some of the vets, trade off the prospects we feel the rest of the league overvalues, and then develop and slowly promote the ones we like.

We construct the team afraid to make a mistake, we manage games afraid to make a mistake, we pitch afraid to throw a strike, and we bat afraid to strike out.  

 

[DaveW]

 

I agree with this 100%. 

I agree with you 100% 50% of the time.

[Vanimal46]

 

To avoid analysis skewed by hindsight, and then I may be missing the whole point of the thread I guess, we can look at the 20 moves as a whole and speak in general terms about the process without judging based on results.  

It is abundantly clear in looking at the moves that we took almost no risks.  Regardless of how the moves turned out, every single move on the list was conservative, even the addition of Park who Ryan has admitted he was surprised the Twins won the bid, and then look at the contract.  

This off-season conservatism followed some of the more brash moves made by the organization (Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, Hunter) following a need to try to get back to relevance.  Aggression which actually worked out, much to the chagrin of those hoping to build only from within.  

The tentativeness has plagued the team for years now.  It looks like a sheer lack of confidence from our management/scouts.  We continually overvalue our prospects with no clue as to which ones are ready, which ones will produce, and which won't.  We continue to expose their flaws in trial runs that kill trade value and diminish the built in advantage we have of having more complete scouting on our prospects than our opponents.  We continue to add expensive mid-level free agents who offer little trade value, command longer contracts, and block development.  Basically, we're afraid to trade prospects because we don't trust our scouting.  We're afraid to trade veterans because we don't like the value of return.  We put ourselves in situations where we have to sign guys that perpetuate the problem.  The team needs to take what it can for some of the vets, trade off the prospects we feel the rest of the league overvalues, and then develop and slowly promote the ones we like.

We construct the team afraid to make a mistake, we manage games afraid to make a mistake, we pitch afraid to throw a strike, and we bat afraid to strike out.  

 

There's so many things in this post that I love. You are dead on that this was an off-season of taking zero risks. Your last paragraph is right on the money too. Bravo, good sir. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I agree with this 100%.

 

good snip, by the way. Got carried away.