What happens when Gibson comes back?

[bluechipper]

 

What should happen:

 

Twins make room for Gibson by putting Hughes in the bullpen or by trading Nolasco or Ervin Santana. 

 

What will happen:

 

Twins will make room for Gibson by sending down Berrios.

As long as Berrios pitches just ok or better, he's not going down. I'm sure the Twins realize Hughes is basically done as a starter and they're not going to send Berrios back down just so Nolasco has a spot.

[nicksaviking]

 

I've got to think Berrios will be around for a while.  You don't typically add a guy on to the 40 ahead of schedule if you aren't planning on giving them an extended look in the majors.  I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes to the pen hasn't been discussed.  It's the right answer too I think b/c he's a better option there than a lot of what we have there now.

 

I agree, Hughes' last three starts have gone 4 innings, 2 innings and 5 innings. Molitor has already shown a pattern yanking him early, even if Ryan did want to milk every dime out of Hughes by sticking him in the rotation, he can't stop Molitor from Alex-Meyering Hughes the rest of the year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think I was pretty clear.  If you're going to judge a roster by a fairly short sample size, then Sano and Arcia would be part of that discussion.  And that's why I started with:

 

"IMHO, still early for that."

"Fairly short sample size"?  Phil Hughes has 196 career games started, 1122 IP, and a career 109 ERA- (100 is average, higher is worse) as a starter.  He's at 119 since the beginning of last year (32 GS).  He has been better than 99 ERA- as a starter in exactly one season in his entire career:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2006&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7450&sort=1,d

 

Also, better than 98 FIP- once, and better than 100 xFIP- once.  All the same magical 2014 season, as you may have guessed.

 

I don't necessarily think he'll be quite this bad (158 ERA- so far in 2016) going forward, but he has a pretty large sample of demonstrated mediocrity as a starting pitcher.  A decision to shift him to the pen right now would not be based on a "fairly short sample size."

[dxpavelka]

 

 Hughes cannot survive in the rotation with a 91mph fastball.

 

 

I've been wondering about that.  And yet we seem to think that Duffy can?

[mazeville]

 

As long as Berrios pitches just ok or better, he's not going down. I'm sure the Twins realize Hughes is basically done as a starter and they're not going to send Berrios back down just so Nolasco has a spot.

 

This is the Twins we're talking about here.

 

It's basically either Duffey or Berrios. Berrios has a 6-plus ERA and has walked 5 batters per nine innings. The Twins will look at those numbers and tell Berrios to go "dominate" at AAA.

[alarp33]

 

I've been wondering about that.  And yet we seem to think that Duffy can?

 

"Hughes cannot survive in the rotation with a 91mph fastball" in no way means "No one can survive in a rotation with a 91mph fastball"  

[bluechipper]

 

This is the Twins we're talking about here.

 

It's basically either Duffey or Berrios. Berrios has a 6-plus ERA and has walked 5 batters per nine innings. The Twins will look at those numbers and tell Berrios to go "dominate" at AAA.

Ricky Nolasco has a 4.87 ERA  and Phil Hughes has a 6.44 ERA. As long as Berrios and Duffey aren't terrible, they're staying.

[Shaitan]

 

What should happen:

 

Twins make room for Gibson by putting Hughes in the bullpen or by trading Nolasco or Ervin Santana. 

 

What will happen:

 

Twins will make room for Gibson by sending down Berrios.

 

They'll demote Berrios. Then, 6 days later after a missed start, put Hughes on the DL and recall him.

 

I'd say a slight possibility they insert Gibson into the bullpen or AAA if his rehab starts don't go well. TR has been kinda no BS these past couple weeks.

[bluechipper]

 

I've been wondering about that.  And yet we seem to think that Duffy can?

Hughes relied on that fastball up in the zone. When it was sitting at 94, he could get a lot of pop ups and fly balls, with some strikeouts. At 90, it's getting squared up way more often.

[bluechipper]

 

They'll demote Berrios. Then, 6 days later after a missed start, put Hughes on the DL and recall him.

 

I'd say a slight possibility they insert Gibson into the bullpen or AAA if his rehab starts don't go well. TR has been kinda no BS these past couple weeks.

So Ryan is going to demote a top prospect in favor of a veteran with a mid 6 ERA? That's not a very no BS move.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I see the headline, "Hughes to DL with a right shoulder strain" in the near future. Seemingly every time a pitcher has a poor pitching streak this particular injury follows. I'm just sayin'.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've been wondering about that.  And yet we seem to think that Duffy can?

Well, maybe. I'm far from sold on Duffey but he has a 90mph fastball, an 83mph change, and a 78mph curve. That's a 12mph spread on his pitches and the fastball/curve have very different looks to them.

 

Hughes has similar splits but his curve isn't nearly as bendy and he throws it about 60% as often as Duffey throws his curves.

 

And results matter. Duffey has been getting them, Hughes has not. So you keep throwing the guy with the results out there until something changes.

[Shaitan]

 

So Ryan is going to demote a top prospect in favor of a veteran with a mid 6 ERA? That's not a very no BS move.

 

But he was "injured" when pitching that ERA.

[alarp33]

 

As long as Berrios pitches just ok or better, he's not going down. I'm sure the Twins realize Hughes is basically done as a starter and they're not going to send Berrios back down just so Nolasco has a spot.

 

Trevor May's peripherals were better than Ok last year, and the Twins shifted May to the bullpen in order to keep Mike Pelfrey in the rotation (who was on the last year of his deal). They kept May in the bullpen this year largely because of the long term deals to Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes.  They also didn't call up this same top prospect that many thought could help the rotation last September, while Pelfrey got rocked repeatedly in a playoff race.  

 

So I'm kind of unclear what reasoning you have to be so sure of this.  

 

 

[Kwak]

 

I see the headline, "Hughes to DL with a right shoulder strain" in the near future. Seemingly every time a pitcher has a poor pitching streak this particular injury follows. I'm just sayin'.

Pretty much spot on.  Ryan has sais several times he likes "options".  Since he has more than 5 "options" for the rotation, and MLB rules permit unchallenged designation of "injured"--that's what he will do.  When someone makes a reasonable offer for one of the veteran pitchers, then he will accept the deal and reduce the number of available "options" for the rotation.

[bluechipper]

 

Trevor May's peripherals were better than Ok last year, and the Twins shifted May to the bullpen in order to keep Mike Pelfrey in the rotation (who was on the last year of his deal). They kept May in the bullpen this year largely because of the long term deals to Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes.  They also didn't call up this same top prospect that many thought could help the rotation last September, while Pelfrey got rocked repeatedly in a playoff race.  

 

So I'm kind of unclear what reasoning you have to be so sure of this.  

Berrios is a top prospect in all of baseball, the Twins are terrible, and Phil Hughes has a 6.44 ERA.

 

Last year, Pelfrey had around a 4 ERA in July when May was put in the bullpen. It's a totally different situation.

[alarp33]

 

Berrios is a top prospect in all of baseball, the Twins are terrible, and Phil Hughes has a 6.44 ERA.

 

Last year, Pelfrey had around a 4 ERA in July when May was put in the bullpen. It's a totally different situation.

 

May was performing better than Berrios has so far.  

 

Pelfrey was sporting something like a 4 k/9 rate and 3 walk/9 rate... and was fresh of 5 starts where he went 24.1 innings gave up 23 runs, struck out 11, walked 13.  

[bluechipper]

 

May was performing better than Berrios has so far.  

 

Pelfrey was sporting something like a 4 k/9 rate and 3 walk/9 rate... and was fresh of 5 starts where he went 24.1 innings gave up 23 runs, struck out 11, walked 13.  

Berrios has made 3 starts. As long as he pitches just ok, he will stay in the rotation. Like I said, the Twins aren't going to send down a top prospect to make room for Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco.

[alarp33]

 

Berrios has made 3 starts. As long as he pitches just ok, he will stay in the rotation. Like I said, the Twins aren't going to send down a top prospect to make room for Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco.

 

Ok - since we're both just guessing there is no point to bicker back and forth.  Previous history suggests veterans will be given priority - I hope to be wrong

[bluechipper]

 

Ok - since we're both just guessing there is no point to bicker back and forth.  Previous history suggests veterans will be given priority - I hope to be wrong

You mean like Tommy Milone?

[nicksaviking]

 

I've been wondering about that.  And yet we seem to think that Duffy can?

 

Duffy has a good breaking pitch, Hughes curveball has always been below average.

 

If your only decent pitch is your fastball, and it losses 3-4 MPH in two years, you're in trouble unless it started at 98.

 

Edit: and looking at Fangraphs, his curveball usage has been up this year. He was throwing it 15% of the time last year and it's up to 24% this year. So I'm guessing they've been experimenting with off-speed stuff as everyone knows his velocity is a problem. It's of no use though if the curve stinks just as it always has.

[mazeville]

 

Ricky Nolasco has a 4.87 ERA  and Phil Hughes has a 6.44 ERA. As long as Berrios and Duffey aren't terrible, they're staying.

 

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Are you talking about the same Twins, with the same front office, that I'm talking about?

 

Berrios has a 6.28 ERA. He is a rookie with options. Barring some superstrong performance in the next start or two I'd fully expect him to be demoted to AAA. I'm not saying that SHOULD happen, I'm saying that will happen. Because this front office gives playing time to veterans and makes rookies perfect their craft in the minors, even when the team has zero chance at the playoffs.

 

As I said, I think Hughes should be in the 'pen until he works through his issues. But as long as Berrios has a 6-plus ERA, the Twins will send him down.

 

 

[bluechipper]

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Are you talking about the same Twins, with the same front office, that I'm talking about?

 

Berrios has a 6.28 ERA. He is a rookie with options. Barring some superstrong performance in the next start or two I'd fully expect him to be demoted to AAA. I'm not saying that SHOULD happen, I'm saying that will happen. Because this front office gives playing time to veterans and makes rookies perfect their craft in the minors, even when the team has zero chance at the playoffs.

 

As I said, I think Hughes should be in the 'pen until he works through his issues. But as long as Berrios has a 6-plus ERA, the Twins will send him down.

Well first off, Kyle Gibson is still a ways away from coming back, so Berrios will have more than two more starts. He's had three starts (two of them affected by weather) where he's shown the great stuff that has made him so highly regarded, and he's dominated the upper minors. In my opinion, there's no way the Twins are going to leave Phil Hughes in the starting rotation to get hammered each time out and send down Berrios.

[Thrylos]

 

Ricky Nolasco has a 4.87 ERA  and Phil Hughes has a 6.44 ERA. As long as Berrios and Duffey aren't terrible, they're staying.

 

Fact check:  Berrios has a 6.28 ERA (and leads all Twins starters with a 5.94 FIP).  He is more "terrible" than either Hughes or Nolasco, if you count with ERA/FIP.   If you count otherwise, eg. "potential", Meyer should be in the conversation as well.

[Linus]

I hope Gibson stays on the rehab assignment until he is throwing the ball well. If he comes back and stinks I don't want to hear about him being rusty.

[Thrylos]

 

Well, maybe. I'm far from sold on Duffey but he has a 90mph fastball, an 83mph change, and a 78mph curve. That's a 12mph spread on his pitches and the fastball/curve have very different looks to them.

 

Hughes has similar splits but his curve isn't nearly as bendy and he throws it about 60% as often as Duffey throws his curves.

 

And results matter. Duffey has been getting them, Hughes has not. So you keep throwing the guy with the results out there until something changes.

 

Don't look, but Duffey was throwing some 88 mph cookies last night that DicknBert was calling "changes" that looked pretty scary.

 

Per Pitchf/x average FB is 89.7, average curve 79.1.  Not that much difference.  And, like last season, only the curve is an above average pitch.

 

Hope that he has long success as a starter, but hate to say it, the lead indicators are that it's not going to last.

[Linus]

Don't look, but Duffey was throwing some 88 mph cookies last night that DicknBert was calling "changes" that looked pretty scary.

 

Per Pitchf/x average FB is 89.7, average curve 79.1. Not that much difference. And, like last season, only the curve is an above average pitch.

 

Hope that he has long success as a starter, but hate to say it, the lead indicators are that it's not going to last.

I think you might be right and that he could end up being an excellent reliever. I will say that I like how he has seized his opportunities to start which is a refreshing change from Gibson.

[alarp33]

 

You mean like Tommy Milone?

 

Yes, the same Tommy Milone that was tendered a contract this winter, assuring Trevor May would not be given a shot at the rotation, and contributed to Duffey and Berrios starting in AAA

 

And come on - Tommy Milone was on a 1 year $4 million deal... Phil Hughes today, is still owed something like $47 million... you can't really think that's an apples to apples comparison?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Frankly, while Gibson's return is still a few weeks off, you can make a strong case for May or Meyer to take Hughes' spot right now.

 

Meyer hasn't pitched hardly at all of late (shoulder strain). I think he's going to have to get back into the swing of things in AAA.  May, I'd agree, but I don't (unfortunately) see the Twins doing that.

[mazeville]

 

Well first off, Kyle Gibson is still a ways away from coming back, so Berrios will have more than two more starts. He's had three starts (two of them affected by weather) where he's shown the great stuff that has made him so highly regarded, and he's dominated the upper minors. In my opinion, there's no way the Twins are going to leave Phil Hughes in the starting rotation to get hammered each time out and send down Berrios.

 

Again, he has a 6.28 ERA. He walks 5 batters per nine innings. And though he strikes out more than 11 per nine innings, his FIP is nearly 6. He has hardly dominated. 

 

I personally think he should stay and be allowed to develop here. But the Twins would hardly be out of their minds sending him down for a bit longer.