Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Right now I don’t think he’ll make it, but he’s going to end up as one of those borderline guys who’s written about a lot. It’s going to come down to how the future voting pool decides to handle catchers, with whatever new data is made available

 

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, Mauer has a way higher career fWAR than Yadier Molina, who a lot of people think will make it. Molina will get tons of credit for leadership stuff that Mauer will miss out on, but the point is, there will be a case

 

10:23
Breakout: Noticed Byron Buxton lately? Contact up, contact quality up, swing and miss down. Obviously all these things were starting at a pretty terrible place but interesting things are happening with him. He also bailed on a big leg kick. At the very least, watch his HR yesterday.

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to need a lot more than a couple of decent weeks against bad pitching
10:25
Jeff Sullivan: 10 Twins have batted at least 20 times in August, and Buxton has the third-highest strikeout rate
10:25
Jeff Sullivan: That being said, I’ve really come to appreciate his defense. If he’s just going to be an occasionally more powerful Billy Hamilton, that’s not horrible

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-81817/

 

[Vanimal46]

toki
12:39 After that in the parker by Buxton is his ceiling Willie Mays-Hayes?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:39 I still Buxton is going to figure it out
He's not going to be Trout II, but he's so talented

[nicksaviking]

 

toki
12:39 After that in the parker by Buxton is his ceiling Willie Mays-Hayes?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:39 I still Buxton is going to figure it out
He's not going to be Trout II, but he's so talented

 

Geez, he's already evaluating Trout Jr.? Is he even born yet?

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/byron-buxton-is-playing-excellent-baseball/

[ashbury]

Geez, he's already evaluating Trout Jr.? Is he even born yet?

He misspoke. Follow-on models to cyborgs like Trout should be referenced as Version 2.0 or similar.

[clutchhittin18]

Here is another one by Sullivan about the Twins as a whole:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/something-in-minnesota-has-clicked/

[Vanimal46]

12:07
Hannah Hochevar: Seems like everyone’s in on the Buxton Byronaissance. Do you think he beats his ROS projections?

 

12:07
Dave Cameron: Everyone did this last year too.
12:08
Dave Cameron: Right now, he’s still more Billy Hamilton than anything else. I’ll remain reserved about his prospects for stardom until he sustains power or improves contact.

 

 

12:40
Joe Douglas: Regarding Buxton and Moncada: Eric made a similar comparison in his chat, basically saying that Buxton turning it around this year is similar to what he expects for Moncada (where concerns seem overblown because of a poor start). He cited Buxton being good since July. While I certainly think that expectations can be too high for prospect on debut, I don’t know that I would be looking at Buxton as a desired career path for Moncada, no?

 

12:41
Dave Cameron: Right. The lesson of Buxton shouldn’t be “just wait, we’ll be proven right eventually”, but that these tooled-up guys with swing and approach issues probably come with more risk than is usually acknowledged.

 

 

2:22
Hannah Hochevar: How much has zips changed on Buxton and how much do you think it should change?

 

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Come down on the offense, but up on his defense as he keeps pushing th at threshold higher

 

[Vanimal46]

Klaw chat going on right now.... 

Seath

2:02 What do you make of Royce Lewis promotion to Low A?  He seems to be doing well (SSS).  I know lot of people in MN were upset they didn't go for Greene.

 

Keith Law
2:03 Seems aggressive. If he's really that advanced a bat, then it's not a bad idea to get him a cup of coffee there since he'll play there next year ... but if he's not that advanced, then there's the risk he'll be overmatched. I did not think this spring that he was that advanced a bat.

 

 

Brian
2:37 I know he is old for the FSL despite being drafted this year but Rooker is off to a great start. Do you think he can be a league average player?

 

Keith Law
2:38 Yep, that's probably the best case scenario because he might be a DH and won't be an asset on the field. More likely an up-and-down guy, but everyday player is possible.

[Vanimal46]

Ryan
2:46 What are your thoughts on Byron Buxton? Overall numbers don't look great due to the first month of the year but if you take that out he looks pretty good. Is he finally turning into the player many thought he'd be in the big leagues?

 

Keith Law
2:47 I believe so. I said on Twitter that he's a star and I stand by it: He's the best defensive CF in baseball and he's showing enough progress at the plate that I'm very, very confident he's becoming the player I forecasted he'd be (and so did everyone else ... this isn't just me).

 

Eric
3:16 You're Derek Falvey. Do you shut down Fernando Romero as he's already surpassed his career high in IP?

 

Keith Law
3:16 Do we actually know what a safe innings jump is? The Verducci claim has been debunked. Now it's just an assumption without evidence, no?

[biggentleben]

 

Klaw chat going on right now.... 

Seath

2:02 What do you make of Royce Lewis promotion to Low A?  He seems to be doing well (SSS).  I know lot of people in MN were upset they didn't go for Greene.

 

Keith Law
2:03 Seems aggressive. If he's really that advanced a bat, then it's not a bad idea to get him a cup of coffee there since he'll play there next year ... but if he's not that advanced, then there's the risk he'll be overmatched. I did not think this spring that he was that advanced a bat.

 

 

Brian
2:37 I know he is old for the FSL despite being drafted this year but Rooker is off to a great start. Do you think he can be a league average player?

 

Keith Law
2:38 Yep, that's probably the best case scenario because he might be a DH and won't be an asset on the field. More likely an up-and-down guy, but everyday player is possible.

 

I caught flack for saying similar about Rooker on Twitter the last few days on the Puckett's Pond site account. Now that I've dug through a bunch of video, I just don't like his defense anywhere. Working with Douggie baseball could give him at least a shot at 1B, but I'd still project DH.

[Vanimal46]

Everyone feels the need to get their think piece out on Byron Buxton. Fangraphs is no different. Hot off the presses today:

"Sinking and Then Swimming with Byron Buxton"

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-other-dramatic-turnaround/

 

an article w/o a conclusion, just "baseball"

[ashbury]

Everyone feels the need to get their think piece out on Byron Buxton. Fangraphs is no different.

Frontrunners. Every last one of them. Every. Last. One.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Frontrunners. Every last one of them. Every. Last. One.

 

heh, I think of them "write about interesting stuff, and that they think others will be interested in"....which rarely includes thoughts on the worst teams....

[Mike Sixel]

3:02
JT: What’s your take on Buxton’s recent surge?

3:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Told you so?
3:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I hope this surge is a sign of things to come for him, and that people will look to this as an example of why patience with prospects is important

 

3:43
Joe from Minnesota: Is Wander Javier gonna push his way onto your top-100 list this offseason? He’s been raking this year after a decent amount of hype preseason.

 

3:44
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah relatively polished shortstops like that typically have a shot to land on the back of the 100.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-fall-league-roster-release/

[Vanimal46]

This isn't Twins-related, but a very fun read nonetheless. 

Eno Sarris tackles the age-old question, "If you, (yes, you!) were given a full season's worth of PA's, would you get a hit?"

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/would-chris-hayes-get-a-hit-in-a-full-season-of-play/
 

[ashbury]

 

This isn't Twins-related, but a very fun read nonetheless. 

Eno Sarris tackles the age-old question, "If you, (yes, you!) were given a full season's worth of PA's, would you get a hit?"

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/would-chris-hayes-get-a-hit-in-a-full-season-of-play/
 

I read all the 'splainin. I still say zero.

[CampQ]

If you flip back like six pages you have all the pundits talking about how Buxton is the next Billy Hamilton

[BK432]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-other-dramatic-turnaround/

 

an article w/o a conclusion, just "baseball"

 

This article on Matt Belisle got glossed over here, so I'm 'bumping' it. I find it fascinating, and it will be a real story to follow in September to see if his foul ball rates are sustainable. Thanks for sharing this, Mike.

[USAFChief]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-the-lemahieu-shift-the-boldest-one-ever/

 

wow.

[prouster]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-the-lemahieu-shift-the-boldest-one-ever/

 

wow.

 

I don't mean to be a luddite, but I'm wondering if it's getting to be time for MLB to intervene when it comes to defensive alignments. In the article, Arizona's manager mentions having the left fielder swing across the outfield to play between CF and RF. Isn't that a position change, and shouldn't he be forced to report it to the umpire and leave the player at that position for the rest of the game, or at least report it to the ump if he wants to move that player back to LF? I don't know. I think teams should definitely have some leeway with positioning their defense, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to put limits on what they can actually do.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't mean to be a luddite, but I'm wondering if it's getting to be time for MLB to intervene when it comes to defensive alignments. In the article, Arizona's manager mentions having the left fielder swing across the outfield to play between CF and RF. Isn't that a position change, and shouldn't he be forced to report it to the umpire and leave the player at that position for the rest of the game, or at least report it to the ump if he wants to move that player back to LF? I don't know. I think teams should definitely have some leeway with positioning their defense, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to put limits on what they can actually do.

 

why? I don't see any harm to the game, and it was entertaining I'd guess.

[USAFChief]

 

I don't mean to be a luddite, but I'm wondering if it's getting to be time for MLB to intervene when it comes to defensive alignments. In the article, Arizona's manager mentions having the left fielder swing across the outfield to play between CF and RF. Isn't that a position change, and shouldn't he be forced to report it to the umpire and leave the player at that position for the rest of the game, or at least report it to the ump if he wants to move that player back to LF? I don't know. I think teams should definitely have some leeway with positioning their defense, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to put limits on what they can actually do.

I guess I'd rather see hitters work on taking advantage of shifts.  "Hit 'em where they ain't."  

 

Do the work necessary to learn to hit the ball to all fields, including pulling the ball and taking an outside pitch the other way.

 

If a hitter only hits the ball to part of the field, he gets what he deserves.

 

EDIT:  I also want to leave defensive positioning to the manager.  The only real rule is, only the catcher can start in foul territory...and that's enough for me.  I rather like the old days, when a manager might use 5 infielders, or put his pitcher in RF for one hitter, then return him to the mound.  

[nicksaviking]

I like the shifts,

 

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.

 

Typically when a new idea is presented, the disadvantaged party is forced to adjust to level the playing field. I think shifts will one day, and probably soon, create a better class of overall hitters.

[Vanimal46]

Aussie Bossy
12:23 Are Lewis Thorpe's numbers encouraging? How has his velocity look?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:23 It's good he made it through an entire season without a DL stint. Mostly low-90s last I checked, though it was a while ago.

 

Erykah Badu
12:36 Is Akil Baddoo more talented than I am?  Is is a legit prospect?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:38 Why don't you call Tyrone and ask him?
He's legit.

[prouster]

 

I guess I'd rather see hitters work on taking advantage of shifts.  "Hit 'em where they ain't."  

 

Do the work necessary to learn to hit the ball to all fields, including pulling the ball and taking an outside pitch the other way.

 

If a hitter only hits the ball to part of the field, he gets what he deserves.

 

EDIT:  I also want to leave defensive positioning to the manager.  The only real rule is, only the catcher can start in foul territory...and that's enough for me.  I rather like the old days, when a manager might use 5 infielders, or put his pitcher in RF for one hitter, then return him to the mound.  

 

I don't disagree. I'm just wondering if there's a point at which defenses gain an unfair advantage. The batter can only be in the batter's box before the pitch is delivered, for instance. He can't stand on top of the plate to get deliberately plunked, nor can he stand with a foot behind the box to stay on tough fastballs/induce catcher's interference. If it's up to the batter to figure out the defense, why can't it be up to the defense to figure out the batter (taking better routes, honing their reflexes, etc.)? Again, I'm not categorically opposed to defensive shifts. I just think it would be valid to talk about whether there should be some limitations in place.

 

Anyway, I didn't mean to get the thread off topic. As you were.

[Mr. Brooks]

If it's up to the batter to figure out the defense, why can't it be up to the defense to figure out the batter (taking better routes, honing their reflexes, etc.)?

 

A defensive shift IS figuring out the batter.

[jimmer]

 

A defensive shift IS figuring out the batter.

exactly.

[nicksaviking]

I don't disagree. I'm just wondering if there's a point at which defenses gain an unfair advantage. The batter can only be in the batter's box before the pitch is delivered, for instance. He can't stand on top of the plate to get deliberately plunked, nor can he stand with a foot behind the box to stay on tough fastballs/induce catcher's interference. If it's up to the batter to figure out the defense, why can't it be up to the defense to figure out the batter (taking better routes, honing their reflexes, etc.)? Again, I'm not categorically opposed to defensive shifts. I just think it would be valid to talk about whether there should be some limitations in place.

 

Anyway, I didn't mean to get the thread off topic. As you were.

Well if Kepler could also learn to go opposite field like Mauer and Mauer could also learn to pull it like Kepler the defense would lose it's advantage.

 

It'll catch up to the defenses sooner or later when that's exactly what these pro batters do.

[prouster]

A defensive shift IS figuring out the batter.

Sure, but doesn't the batter's box exist because standing on home plate or right on top of the catcher unfairly mean unfairly "figuring out" how to neutralize the pitcher?

 

Again. Not categorically opposed to shifts. Not suggesting shifts should go away. Not suggesting they're illegitimate. What I am suggesting is that there *could* be a point at which shifting constitutes an unfair advantage. An example of that *might* be the spontaneous invention of positions that didn't previously exist, or making unofficial roster moves that aren't recognized as such (for example, switching the left and center fielders without a corresponding change to the lineup card). I am merely suggesting that it *might* make sense to implement some formal process that discourages such moves if for the simple reason the manager finds it inconvenient to stroll out to home plate every time he wants to *radically* shift his players.

 

Apologies for all the asterisks. However, they are apparently necessary in order to convey my meaning in a way that makes sense to vigilant and careless readers alike.