Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wonder if he has evidence for this. Seems like something that could be analyzed deeper. A Shields reference makes me think he remembers outliers.

 

The comp that comes to my mind from reading up on De Leon is Kevin Slowey. Able to have some success, especially initially, but doesn't last especially long.

I too would like to see a deeper analysis on that point, although Slowey might not be a good comp -- his K% hovered around 20% in the upper minors.  Times have changed a bit, but not that much -- he was never missing bats like De Leon (32.5 K% in AAA last year was his lowest mark since rookie league ball in his draft summer).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

not the twins, but, 

 

cheese
12:24 Does the upgrade from Howie Kendrick to Forsyth justify the loss of DeLeon?

 

Dave Cameron
12:24 Not to me.
And even without Kendrick, they could have just brought back Utley and platooned him with Hernandez or Taylor.
Plus I know Willie Calhoun is odd shaped and maybe can't field, but he's close-ish and can hit.

I'm coming to the conclusion Cameron is way higher than De Leon than everyone else, including the Dodgers.

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
12:31 First, thanks for the Arizona Wilderness rec. yummy. Second, if the offer was really only De Leon, would you have traded Dozier?

 

Eno Sarris
12:31 No, I don't think I would have.

[Mike Sixel]

Devil Ray J. Johnson
2:41 Is the A's plan "let's collect as many 1.2 WAR players as possible and try to maximize playing time efficiency"?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:41 I gave up figuring it out.
They seem to be trying to pick up flippable guys.
2:42 But people overrate how many guys actually get flipped.
Last season, teams that finished below .500 had 26 guys signed the previous winter to one-year MLB contracts. only 7 were traded.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm coming to the conclusion Cameron is way higher than De Leon than everyone else, including the Dodgers.

 

Perhaps even De Leon's mother as well. He certainly is hyping him as some kind of can't miss elite arm.

[Mike Sixel]

britishcub
2:45 Are any of the players big gamers that you know of?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:45 Many are, though I don't feel comfortable saying their names unless they're public with it.
Like Trevor May is a big gamer.

 

Sandy Kazmir
2:55 Would you rather have Logan Forsythe and Brock Stewart or just Brian Dozier?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:55 I think Forsythe and Stewart, but I don't think it's a slam dunk

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sandy Kazmir

2:55 Would you rather have Logan Forsythe and Brock Stewart or just Brian Dozier?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:55 I think Forsythe and Stewart, but I don't think it's a slam dunk

That's a really interesting way to look at it.

 

I think I agree. If you're trying to win it all in 2017, I may rather have Forsythe and Stewart than Dozier alone.

 

But it's close either way.

[jimmer]

Eno Sarris from Fangraphs was on MLB Now (on MLB Network) talking about pitching (his specialty, along with beer:-))  It was a good segment.  They were focusing on the Dodgers very deep rotation to start with.  Suggested starting Urias later in the season (due to controlling innings for the young man) so he'd be available in the offseason which they expect to be in.

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/projecting-jose-de-leon/

 

Projecting De Leon

[TheLeviathan]

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/projecting-jose-de-leon/

 

Projecting De Leon

 

That's overall pretty positive.  Some of those comps are a bit scary, but I would imagine that's the case for everybody.

[jimmer]

 

That's overall pretty positive.  Some of those comps are a bit scary, but I would imagine that's the case for everybody.

De leon grades out exceptionally well by my KATOH system. It projects him for 8.1 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method (KATOH) and also 10.1 WAR by the method that integrates Baseball America’s rankings (KATOH+). He’s the 13th-highest-ranking prospect by KATOH+ and the third-highest-ranking pitcher.

[Taildragger8791]

 

De leon grades out exceptionally well by my KATOH system. It projects him for 8.1 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method (KATOH) and also 10.1 WAR by the method that integrates Baseball America’s rankings (KATOH+). He’s the 13th-highest-ranking prospect by KATOH+ and the third-highest-ranking pitcher.

 

Dude, it's cool. We still got Dozier, and I keep hearing we signed some new superstar named "Regression" who's going to pick up all the slack around here. Hold on tight cuz this rocket is about to take off!

[Han Joelo]

 

I'm just going to post here whenever they do an article on the Twins.

 

Today, they have one on Trevor May (noting some changes in set up, and in approach and outcomes).

 

they also have one on Berrios, where his top statistical comparison is...........Pedro Martinez.

 

In a way, this thread has come full circle...I'd have traded Dozier straight up for the next Pedro Martinez for sure.  Especially if the next Boof Bonser was part of the deal, and Pedro Hernandez was the third piece.  (It was Pedro Hernandez in the Liriano/Sux deal, right?  Or am I thinking of the horrible tequila we used to make "Riveritas" back in the day?)

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Mike Sixel: Would you have traded Dozier straight up for De Leon, from the Twins' side? thanks!

 

KLAW:

No. I don't think that's enough value given what Dozier has been the last two years.

[Mike Sixel]

mtsw
10:14 Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier for Johnathan Schoop, Dylan Bundy, Brad Brach and a prospect: make sense for both sides? Seems like a potential way for the O's to maximize what looks like a two-year window of competitiveness.

 

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:15 Tough to think about on the fly, but my first sense is I don't think the Orioles would want to do it. I'm also not sure the Twins would want to do it, but from Baltimore's perspective, I'm not sure it's worth pushing in. Their situation is obviously going to be very tough, but they need some sort of link to the longer-term future. Bundy is something. And Brach would be a real loss in the bullpen

[Mike Sixel]

Keith, what are your thoughts on the Forsythe/De Leon trade?

 

 

KLAW: Liked it a little more for Tampa Bay. De Leon needs some tweaking but I think he's a surefire back-end starter now.

[Mike Sixel]

Keith, regarding the De Leon-Forsythe trade, I've read some claims that you dissed De Leon's MLB stint, focusing on his low swing-and-miss rate (over 300 pitches). Given your long-held stance on SSS, I find their charge curious. Are you being trolled?

 

KLAW:

Two things. One, the original capsule on De Leon was messed up (on my end, not my editors). It had his number of swings and misses on changeups (9) as if that were his total number (32, I believe - all from baseballsavant). Two, no, that wasn't the basis for his ranking, but something that I felt supported the point that his high K rate from triple-A and double-A might not carry over to the majors. He has no breaking ball, and his fastball is just average and a little true. He's aggressive, he throws strikes, he's an awesome kid, and the changeup is a solid 55 for me. I like him, but if you just look at the minor league stats you might see an ace, and he's not that.

[drjim]

More fuel to the point about De Leon being a classic example of the analytics/scouting split. I personally lean the Law direction more than the Cameron direction, but that outcome is far from certain at this point.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Mike Sixel: Would you have traded Dozier straight up for De Leon, from the Twins' side? thanks!

 

KLAW:

No. I don't think that's enough value given what Dozier has been the last two years.

I appreciate that you post 'em as you see 'em, even when you disagree in opinion with what they say.

[jimmer]

 

I appreciate that you post 'em as you see 'em, even when you disagree in opinion with what they say.

Does Mike really disagree?

 

Has Mike said he would have wanted the Twins to trade Dozier in a 1:1 trade for De Leon?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Does Mike really disagree?

 

Has Mike said he would have wanted the Twins to trade Dozier in a 1:1 trade for De Leon?

I don't know.

[Eris]

 

De leon grades out exceptionally well by my KATOH system. It projects him for 8.1 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method (KATOH) and also 10.1 WAR by the method that integrates Baseball America’s rankings (KATOH+). He’s the 13th-highest-ranking prospect by KATOH+ and the third-highest-ranking pitcher.

10.1 WAR / 6 years averages 1.7 WAR / year.  This seems good but not great.  In ML  last year, 56 pitchers had a WAR greater than Ian Kennedy's 1.7.  Since 2010, Phil Hughes has had 14 WAR, 8.1 WAR excluding his 5.9 WAR in 2014 and including last year.  Ricky Nolasco returned 2.5 WAR last year.  Carl Pavano turned in 7.4 WAR in his 3.5 years with the Twins.  

 

However this does point to one of the Twin problems.  Over the last 20 years, they have only had 7 pitchers who have accumulated a WAR with the Twins greater than 8.  This is depressing.  In that context, DeLeon's 10 WAR projection looks great.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1996&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Over this period team and pitchers with WAR > 8.

Twins: 7

White Sox:  15

Royals:  7

Tigers: 10

Indians:  12

Dodgers:  12

Yankees:  16

[jimmer]

 

10.1 WAR / 6 years averages 1.7 WAR / year.  This seems good but not great.  In ML  last year, 56 pitchers had a WAR greater than Ian Kennedy's 1.7.  Since 2010, Phil Hughes has had 14 WAR, 8.1 WAR excluding his 5.9 WAR in 2014 and including last year.  Ricky Nolasco returned 2.5 WAR last year.  Carl Pavano turned in 7.4 WAR in his 3.5 years with the Twins.  

 

However this does point to one of the Twin problems.  Over the last 20 years, they have only had 7 pitchers who have accumulated a WAR with the Twins greater than 8.  This is depressing.  In that context, DeLeon's 10 WAR projection looks great.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1996&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Over this period team and pitchers with WAR > 8.

Twins: 7

White Sox:  15

Royals:  7

Tigers: 10

Indians:  12

Dodgers:  12

Yankees:  16

I don't really think it's meant to be taken literally due to how the numbers are created.   Do we believe there won't be any top pitching prospect exceeding 11 or 12 WAR n their first 6 seasons?  It's like, well, have you noticed even really good pitching prospects are almost never projected to be aces or #2s? I don't ever remember someone being bold enough to come out and say I project this guy to be an Ace or even a very good #2.  I'm sure it has happened and I don't need examples, but it seems rare. Seems even some of best pitchers were labeled like #3 types.  Eno Sarris has talked about, that guys who write about prospects don't usually find themselves projecting past #3 types very often.  You read things like 'Has ace stuff, but likely becomes a #3 or 4.'  It's like, huh?

 

In regards to the specific quote I posted and then you commented on, I focused more 3rd best pitching prospect part (though, honestly, I wouldn't call him that). I'd envision the first year or two being low and then him picking up from 3rd year on.

[Mike Sixel]

Ian Connor
12:49 Apparently the Dodgers were considering trading Alex Wood to Seattle for prospects(most likely Gohara+), then flipping them with De Leon for Dozier. Would you have done this or the 1 for 1 Forsythe deal?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:49 I'd rather have Dozier

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know.

 

Neither does Mike, frankly.

 

At first, there is no way I would have done that. Now? Now I'm not certain. I still think I say no, but I'm much more tempted to say yes than I was. I just don't see a path to competitiveness this year, and I think they need all the SP prospects they can get, as they aren't outbidding anyone for a legit SP in FA probably.

 

But, man, one prospect? Seems light to me.

 

And, yes, I just post what I see

[Mike Sixel]

Maxwell
12:59 Where do you see the twins in the next 5 years?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:00 Are Sano and Buxton stars? It starts there for me. Would have loved De Leon there. Who is going to pitch? Lot of uncertainty

[Mike Sixel]

Sonny
1:44 I believe we've just seen the future of Buster Posey and it looks a lot more like Joe Mauer's age curve than I'd like to admit. Please give me reasons this won't be true

 

Travis Sawchik
1:44 Nah. Posey has a much different body and the glove is still elite ... Mauer was not an elite receiver

[nicksaviking]

 

Sonny
1:44 I believe we've just seen the future of Buster Posey and it looks a lot more like Joe Mauer's age curve than I'd like to admit. Please give me reasons this won't be true

 

Travis Sawchik
1:44 Nah. Posey has a much different body and the glove is still elite ... Mauer was not an elite receiver

 

Seems like a bit of an odd response considering Mauer's defense behind the plate had nothing to do with his decline. He was a solidly above average catcher at worst. I'm also going to guess that 'Sonny' and Giants nation are going to be more worried about any possible decline with Posey's bat.

 

On the other hand, predicting Posey will decline like Mauer kind of also would require a belief that he'd also have concussion issues.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seems like a bit of an odd response considering Mauer's defense behind the plate had nothing to do with his decline. He was a solidly above average catcher at worst. I'm also going to guess that 'Sonny' and Giants nation are going to be more worried about any possible decline with Posey's bat.

 

On the other hand, predicting Posey will decline like Mauer kind of also would require a belief that he'd also have concussion issues.

 

I think the point is, Posey is ELITE on defense, and he could stay there even if he doesn't hit as well.

 

And, I'd bet that Mauer as, at best, a mediocre framer....

[nicksaviking]

 

I think the point is, Posey is ELITE on defense, and he could stay there even if he doesn't hit as well.

 

And, I'd bet that Mauer as, at best, a mediocre framer....

 

I get it. I guess my point is that Mauer's decline likely had more to do with issues that are unlikely to be repeated, making Mauer not an ideal comp.