Will They or Won't They, Should They or Shouldn't They?

[DocBauer]

I was thinking about this the other day when posting, and thought about it again this evening while posting and watching the game. I think it bears discussing considering the situation the Twins find themselves in 2016.

 

This is NOT another doom and gloom thread or opinion. It is NOT a "whoa is us as fans" thread. It is NOT a fire somebody thread. It is a pertinent discussion of the Twins in 2016 regardless of the disappointing 0-7 start, (as of this writing). It would be the same discussion if we were 7-0, or 4-3 or 3-4. A few years back, we started 2-9 before having a playoff season, and nearly made the playoffs last season after a similar poor start.

 

I know it's very early still...but...winning or losing, should the Twins look at themselves as sellers this season? Now stay with me for a minute. It's probably safe to say the Twins competed a year earlier in 2015 than just about anyone expected. Most seem to have predicted 2016 and 2017 would be the years in which the Twins would be assembling an interesting, fun and competitive team.

 

Obviously, if the season goes in the tank, you have to think being a seller would be automatic. But what if this team begins to play to its potential? What if the Twins are .500 or above and have a shot at not only a winning season, but maybe a wild card spot? With a hopeful and I'd say probable return for Duffey, a promotion for Berrios, Kepler and Polanco continuing to develop and shine, at least a couple of the young fireball ingredients RP looking ready...for the long term success of the team...do you STILL become sellers?

 

There would have to be teams out there looking for a push that could maybe use Nolasco, Hughes, Santana, (maybe Gibson), Plouffe, (maybe Escobar even), Perkins if healthy and maybe Suzuki and Jepsen. If these young and talented players look ready, should and could the Twins possibly be sellers, possibly sacrificing the rest of the season, (maybe not), in order for an even better tomorrow?

[jorgenswest]

I am OK with going younger, but readiness can't be determined. It just isn't possible to be ready to hit major league pitching while facing AAA pitching. We can just expect that they will have dominated at a level over a good portion of a season. If a team believes in their young players they need to be patient. It can take 1000-1500 plate appearances. Some of the key young players on this team are just starting their clock.

[Ncgo4]

The twins have a history of sticking with older veterans with whom they are comfortable. If they go any further into the crapper any reason/excuse for continuing down this road disappears. Certainly putting yourself into position for one more top 3 draft pick isn't the worst thing that could happen. But the question becomes what do they have waiting that warrants any sales and who do they have that would be purchased?

 

First of all they have to get Sano out of right field. You don't do that by trading him. You replace him with Kepler this gives us one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. I would trade Park or send him to Rochester. This takes a strike out potential slugger out of the lineup and gives us someone that can potentially get on base.

 

As far as trading any other position players (Plouffe & Dozier?). First, do we have 2nd and 3rd basemen screaming to be called up? Second, do we have any one else on the roster that any one else might want?

 

As far as pitching, I would pray first and last that Nolasco has 2 more good outings. If so send him immediately to a contender and call up Barrios. We could give half the relieving squad their release, I suppose just to go with youth.

 

The question we have to ask is, who is screaming to be called up? Except for Barrios, I can't think of anyone. But this could change at any time.

 

We had a month last year where the offense over produced batting some crazy number with runners in scoring position. That month made our season (much like this start might make this season). Other than that month the Twins were a pretty crappy team. I looked toward this season based on last thinking that just a little better was the ticket for the playoffs. I forgot just how we got therelast year.

 

Let's look at it.

 

Catcher. Maybe the worst in the majors.

First. Serviceable fielder, no power fielder.

Second. Serviceable fielder, 360 ft. slugger that runs out of gas by All star Game

[Ncgo4]

Short. Very good fielder

OF. Great fielding (not Sano). Potential very good hitting.

Pitching. Dumpster fire.

 

I wouldn't Ming going young, but don't see a lot of near term upside.

 

 

Sorry about the split poat

[HitInAPinch]

"should the Twins look at themselves as sellers this season?"

 

Who on earth would buy what the Minnesota Twins are willing to sell?

[Halsey Hall]

I wouldn't call us sellers, but dumpers.

[alarp33]

Short answer, yes I think they should be sellers.  I think if things continue to go down the drain, they should get the young guys the most amount of at bats and innings as possible.  They should sell but at the same time, contend next season.  

 

I'd move as many of the following players as possible

 

Dozier

Plouffe

Santana

Hughes

Nolasco

Milone

Perkins

Jepsen

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

They should have already been sellers. They didn't do it during their non-rebuild, why would we expect them to now?

 

They signed Suzuki to an extension, didn't trade him.

They signed Hughes to an extension, not sure why.

They didn't trade a closer on a terrible team.

 

There is zero indication that this FO is interested in using their veterans to get better at this point in the non-rebuild.

[Vanimal46]

Too early to say that they'll be sellers or not. I do agree with others that if they are sellers, it would be a first in a long time, other than the occasional one-off trade like Liriano for Escobar...

At the very least, one (or more) of the veteran starters should be traded off by July to make room for Berrios or Duffey. I'm hoping Nolasco stays hot, and by some miracle, a team wants to give a decent return for him.  A playoff team with a shaky bullpen may also be interested in Jepsen, which I'd certainly be open to trading as well. The team needs a pay off from the RP draft strategy one of these days...

[puckstopper1]

 

 I would trade Park or send him to Rochester. This takes a strike out potential slugger out of the lineup and gives us someone that can potentially get on base.

 

I wonder if the Twins realized when they invested in Park that the Korean term "Byung Ho" translates to "Strikes Out" in English....

 

Sorry - I know it is early in the season and I really hope Park is able to adjust to become a decent MLB hitter.

[spinowner]

 

I'd move as many of the following players as possible

 

Dozier

Plouffe

Santana

Hughes

Nolasco

Milone

Perkins

Jepsen

I generally agree on all these players and I'd add Suzuki. However, don't sell just for the sake of selling. We need to get the right type of players in return, specifically near-term prospects as opposed to rookie-league types.

[alarp33]

 

I generally agree on all these players and I'd add Suzuki. However, don't sell just for the sake of selling. We need to get the right type of players in return, specifically near-term prospects as opposed to rookie-league types.

 

I didn't put Suzuki on there because I think his value is 0.  I don't think Nolasco would bring back anything either, but at least if he's competent for a month or two you may get someone to pick up part of his 2017 contract

[HitInAPinch]

Aug 10, 2014:  Kevin Correia [ 5-13 with a 4.94 ERA ] traded to the Dodgers for cash or a player to be named later.  Twins took the cash. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Aug 10, 2014:  Kevin Correia [ 5-13 with a 4.94 ERA ] traded to the Dodgers for cash or a player to be named later.  Twins took the cash. 

 

Cash is king.

[Twodogs]

 

I generally agree on all these players and I'd add Suzuki. However, don't sell just for the sake of selling. We need to get the right type of players in return, specifically near-term prospects as opposed to rookie-league types.

But there are a lot of sellers, the Twins need to have something that the other teams want, and generally they haven't had that lately.  So they will have a tough time being picky about what they get back, only way they can be picky is if they are willing to keep the players they are trying to dump.

[chopper0080]

No, the problem is losing.  I wouldn't do anything to help that.  This team needs to win.  They need to win as many games as they can.  They need to win in as many different ways as possible.  You can't just go from 90 losses to a contender.  You have to understand what it takes to win.  How to win when ahead big.  Howto win close games.  How to come from behind and win.  This is what young teams need to learn how to contend.  This helps vets get that feeling back.  This instills confidence in a team that it can.  Sometimes you have to let it ride despite things not going well out the gate.  2016 may not be a title year, but trading away good players for the future only continues the habit and culture of losing.  This team needs to win, and i would be buyers if anything to find a way to do so.  We aren't going to acquire anyone more talented than Buxton and Sano, so now is the time to bet on them.  Surround them with talent.  Let them grow in their roles.  Let them experience winning.  That is what the season should be played for.

[DocBauer]

"should the Twins look at themselves as sellers this season?"

 

Who on earth would buy what the Minnesota Twins are willing to sell?

I know contracts can cause issues. I get that. And it could definitely play a part. But really, come mid season, you don't think there could be teams legitimately in need of an experienced ML catcher, or 3B or SP due to weakness or injury that wouldn't be interested in Suzuki or Plouffe? Or a team needing a SP wouldn't be interested in Santana, and possibly Nolasco or Hughes? (Nolasco on a proposed rebound and only 1 year left. Hughes is younger but long termed and that could be rough)

[HitInAPinch]

 

I know contracts can cause issues. I get that. And it could definitely play a part. But really, come mid season, you don't think there could be teams legitimately in need of an experienced ML catcher, or 3B or SP due to weakness or injury that wouldn't be interested in Suzuki or Plouffe? Or a team needing a SP wouldn't be interested in Santana, and possibly Nolasco or Hughes? (Nolasco on a proposed rebound and only 1 year left. Hughes is younger but long termed and that could be rough)

 

I actually looked up this trade after posting:  Kevin Correia.

 

Remember that one?  Traded to the Dodgers, lasted 9 game / 3 starts.

[DocBauer]

Nolasco is nothing special, but he had a solid ST for the Twins. And while his second start wasn't as good as his first, it was still OK. A solid career NL before joining the Twins, and with only one more year beyond this on his deal, I still believe a healthy Nolasco could provide depth and insurance for another club, especially an NL club, at some point this season. His remaining deal is not long or overly expensive, and if he can continue to pitch with some consistency, I have to believe he'd be enticing to a playoff hopeful team needing help or depth.

 

Santana has an ever better career track record. But no matter how well he pitches for our Twins, his very fair contract for a solid veteran SP, may preclude him being a hot property. (More or less the same for Hughes) But Milone? Like Nolasco, I could see him as a real value for a challenging team needing depth, or a healthy body to replace someone.

 

The whole point being, even if we turn this early season mess around and start winning, aren't we still better off moving these guys to make room for Berrios/Duffey/Meyer, even if it may cause a couple speed bumps in the road toward a wining record? And couldn't a couple of these guys posses actual tradable value?

[DocBauer]

They should have already been sellers. They didn't do it during their non-rebuild, why would we expect them to now?

 

They signed Suzuki to an extension, didn't trade him.

They signed Hughes to an extension, not sure why.

They didn't trade a closer on a terrible team.

 

There is zero indication that this FO is interested in using their veterans to get better at this point in the non-rebuild.

I can't disagree with your sentiment. But here is what I would counter with:

 

Ryan is, perhaps, a bit slow to adapt and change. But in his first go round as GM, and some not so great moves, he adapted and learned.

 

In his second tour of duty, he became more aggressive in his deals, such as the May and Meyer deals. Now, we haven't won these deals yet, but the potential is still there and the jury is still out. Right or wrong, he's also waded far deeper in to the FA pool than we have ever seen the Twins tread before.

 

He's long been staunch in holding on to prospects, right or wrong. As these prospects continue to develop and emerge, and begin to knock on the door more harder and harder, push meets shove and he will be forced to make moves.

 

Yes?

[old nurse]

 

No, the problem is losing.  I wouldn't do anything to help that.  This team needs to win.  They need to win as many games as they can.  They need to win in as many different ways as possible.  You can't just go from 90 losses to a contender.  You have to understand what it takes to win.  How to win when ahead big.  Howto win close games.  How to come from behind and win.  This is what young teams need to learn how to contend.  This helps vets get that feeling back.  This instills confidence in a team that it can.  Sometimes you have to let it ride despite things not going well out the gate.  2016 may not be a title year, but trading away good players for the future only continues the habit and culture of losing.  This team needs to win, and i would be buyers if anything to find a way to do so.  We aren't going to acquire anyone more talented than Buxton and Sano, so now is the time to bet on them.  Surround them with talent.  Let them grow in their roles.  Let them experience winning.  That is what the season should be played for.

90 loses to contender. Houston last year,  Boston in 2013, Twins 87

[chopper0080]

 

90 loses to contender. Houston last year,  Boston in 2013, Twins 87

Hopefully this is to illustrate the importance of winning prior to contending.

[Shaitan]

I know this thread is to speculate and brainstorm, but history shows the Twins don't really do firesales like Houston or Florida (er, Miami) have. They'll trade off pieces, but not more than pending free agents for the most part.