Article: Proving Grounds

[Nick Nelson]

If there's one thing last season taught us, it's that we shouldn't put too much stock into rough beginnings. As we all remember, the 2015 Twins lost six of their first seven games, getting outscored 45-16 in the process. By the end of May, they were in first place.

 

Still, given that Minnesota ended up finishing so close to a postseason spot, one can't help but wonder how differently things might have played out if they'd gotten off to a slightly less disastrous start.

 

This weekend, they head to Kauffman Stadium with a chance to avoid another extended early-April swoon.The Twins know that their path to the the top of the AL Central goes through Kansas City and the defending World Series champs. Last year, the Twins went 7-12 against the Royals, and a dominating sweep that took place at Target Field on the final weekend put the nail in the coffin for their season.

 

Obviously, it would be a big boost if the Twins could make a statement over the next three days. It would be especially important because of the starters that will be taking the hill for Minnesota.

 

Ervin Santana, whose outing was cut short by rain on Opening Day, figures to get his first real start of the season in a ballpark with which he's quite familiar; of course, he played for the Royals in 2013, and had one of his better seasons.

 

Then we get our first looks at the fourth and fifth starters, Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco.

 

The makeup of the Twins rotation, which lacks elite talent at the top, means that the team needs to get quality production from the bottom half in order to have a shot. So the early success (or lack thereof) for Milone and Nolasco could loom large.

 

Milone sort of is what he is at this point: solid, not great, but very consistently so. He had a nice spring marked by sharp command. The key for him will be spotting his pitches with precision and working inside against an extremely aggressive Kansas City lineup.

 

With Nolasco, who knows what to expect. He's got as much to prove as anyone on the roster, and he'll get his first chance on Sunday. If he's commanding his fastball he can certainly get people out, and that would be big.

 

From my view, the best-case scenario for the Twins is that Nolasco performs well over the first couple months and entices an SP-needy team to pick up a good portion of his remaining salary, opening the door for a higher-upside alternative such as Tyler Duffey or Jose Berrios. Heck, maybe Minnesota could even get a decent little prospect back in such a scenario, though I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

Either way, I'm intrigued to see what these two back-end starters, who both have plenty of doubters, can do here in an early-season series that carries plenty of redemptive storylines.

 

Which pitcher will prove the most this weekend? And will the offense rebound after striking out (figuratively and literally) in Baltimore?

 

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[nater79a]

The K's on offense is problem #1 the Twins need to resolve. Averaging 11.7 strikeouts per game is not going to keep you in many games. At this pace the Twins would shatter the single season MLB SO record by over 350.

[Halsey Hall]

Dozier hasn't learned to use the whole field, and it's hurting us badly. Way to many chances to score and we come up empty. That has to change.

[twinsnorth49]

The K's on offense is problem #1 the Twins need to resolve. Averaging 11.7 strikeouts per game is not going to keep you in many games. At this pace the Twins would shatter the single season MLB SO record by over 350.

Yes they do, but it's typically not best to extrapolate statistics over the course of a 162 game season after 3 games.

[Linus]

Yes they do, but it's typically not best to extrapolate statistics over the course of a 162 game season after 3 games.

Except it was a huge problem last year as well. They have an OBP problem that ain't going away soon.

[jimmer]

'If there's one thing last season taught us, it's that we shouldn't put too much stock into rough beginnings. As we all remember, the 2015 Twins lost six of their first seven games, getting outscored 45-16 in the process. By the end of May, they were in first place.'

 

Did last season teach us to to count on a 20 wins May for things like that to happen? :-)

[jimmer]

 

Except it was a huge problem last year as well. They have an OBP problem that ain't going away soon.

Been saying a lot this off season that with our OBP last year (dead last in AL) and our OPS being 13th in the AL last year, only through very advantageous sequencing did we end up middle of the AL in scoring (8th).   Can't count on that.

[twinsnorth49]

Except it was a huge problem last year as well. They have an OBP problem that ain't going away soon.

Agreed, I'm just saying we might want to hold off on the Twins setting the all Universe strikeout record after 3 games.

[Drew]

 

At this pace the Twins would shatter the single season MLB SO record by over 350.

 

At this pace Eduardo Escobar would more than triple the all time single season doubles record. 

[Comrade Bork]

Dozier hasn't learned to use the whole field, and it's hurting us badly. Way to many chances to score and we come up empty. That has to change.

 

I love Dozier, but seeing him rip away like he does at the top of the order is frustrating. Fly ball out's don't do much for a lead-off man. He profiles so much better as a 5 or 6 hitter imo.

[bird]

I almost feel guilty, but I have a very long list of Twins players I hope perform well for the sole reason that I want them to be traded for good value as soon as possible. Nolasco and Milone are at the top of my list, but there are so many!

 

I mean, so so many!

[TheLeviathan]

We had a couple of torrid hitters carry us for stretches last year, this offense really worries me.  I hope this doesn't become a trend.

 

I feel confident we can get competent starting pitching, but I'm not nearly as confident in our ability to score runs.  And if Sano has an adjustment period for any stretch of time that lack of confidence becomes full blown pessimism.

[Willihammer]

Far and away my biggest concern about the Twins is right field. They simply cannot go on with Sano out there. They have to solve that problem. Possibly Park needs to spend time in AAA until they can DL someone, swing a trade, etc.

 

A distant second is Eddie Rosario's... problem... identifying pitches? Or just, identifying strikes? Or cognitive roadblock with taking pitches? I don't know what's going on there but he needs to get his head right because there is no reason at all to throw him a strike right now.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins are paying Santana for games like tonight. A game that a veteran pitcher takes leadership of this team and shuts down the Royals and stops this losing streak. Will he step up?

[Brandon]

If Nolasco is healthy he will be his usual 12-15 game winner with 180 innings.  solid but not great.  one of the better 5th starters in the league.  That's what he's always been.  He was on track for that last year too. 

[jimmer]

Well, I'm not sure I'd say Nolasco would be one of the better #5 starters in the game and the problem is, our rotation consists of only #3-#5 starters. A Nolasco is easier to stomach when a team has a couple guys who slot into 1-2 spots.

 

Kind of like our lineup. Rosario would be a decent #9 hitter but we have Suzuki/Murphy and the young Buxton that hit below him. Not sure why Escobar does. That is compounded by not having decent choices for lead off either.

Edited April 8, 2016 by jimmer