2013 Starting Rotation

[Nick Nelson]

I can't believe someone actually suggested bringing Pavano back.

[lecroy24fan]

I think they should target Shaun Marcum.

[ashbury]

Brandon McCarthy (5/54, 10.8/year)

 

I am worried that McCarthy is a figment of the Oakland stadium.

 

Joe Saunders (2/13, 6.5/year)

 

Saunders on the other hand is badly hurt by his current home park. You might get equivalent production out of either pitcher in the same park, and I agree Saunders might be the cheaper one to sign.

[James Richter]

Several of the 2nd-tier options are spending some time on the DL this season. I don't think many FAs will get lengthy deals without a track record of durability. This will play into the Twins' hands this offseason. Had they reached 200 IP, guys like Marcum, McCarthy and Lewis all could have been looking at $30M+ guaranteed. Now I think they may have to settle for less than $25M, particularly whoever still doesn't have a chair by January. There's no excuse for the front office not to sign at least one guy at that price.

 

Outside of Liriano, I think it's pretty important for the near-term future of the organization for the in-house SP options to struggle for the rest of the season. That includes Diamond - it would be better if his ERA winds up closer to 4.00. We need the front office to believe that nobody under team control is capable of filling the front half of the rotation. If they do, they might prioritize spending some money on someone who could actually plug that hole.

[DPJ]

1. Crap

2. Crap

3. Crap

4. Diamond

5. Crap

[Brock Beauchamp]

Joe Saunders is just awful!

Except for the times when he's not.

 

A career 104 ERA+ isn't going to light the world on fire but it's nothing to scoff at, either. Saunders definitely wouldn't be my first choice but if the market isn't hot on him (unlikely given the season he's having), I wouldn't completely be against signing the guy.

[Badsmerf]

Joe Saunders? Really? If Grienke continues to struggle he isn't going to get 20m a year. If they can get Grienke for 5 years 80-90m thats what I would want. Me ideal scenario would be Grienke, Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, Blackburn. With an incentive deal negotiated with Baker and him taking Blackburn's spot when ready. That would be a solid rotation. I'm assuming Gibson and Hendriks will develop, but I know this isn't a given. With that rotation I think this team could be playoff team... BUT, if they really wanted to... Sign Grienke and get Liriano with the option. A rotation like that could be legit. That would put the Twins over 100m, but not by much (assuming Span is dealt). Morneau is then coming off the books to free up more space so next year would be the highest of payroll, but you'd also be winning games (and selling out target field in the process). This team will be better and my approach would have them making more money via playoffs (and hopefully deep playoff run).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Joe Saunders? Really? If Grienke continues to struggle he isn't going to get 20m a year. If they can get Grienke for 5 years 80-90m thats what I would want. Me ideal scenario would be Grienke, Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, Blackburn. With an incentive deal negotiated with Baker and him taking Blackburn's spot when ready. That would be a solid rotation. I'm assuming Gibson and Hendriks will develop, but I know this isn't a given. With that rotation I think this team could be playoff team... BUT, if they really wanted to... Sign Grienke and get Liriano with the option. A rotation like that could be legit. That would put the Twins over 100m, but not by much (assuming Span is dealt). Morneau is then coming off the books to free up more space so next year would be the highest of payroll, but you'd also be winning games (and selling out target field in the process). This team will be better and my approach would have them making more money via playoffs (and hopefully deep playoff run).

If Greinke keeps scuffling and interest drops in him, I'm all for the Twins going after the guy.

 

I just don't think it will happen. Somebody is going to offer him big money, even if he hasn't been very good since his Cy Young season (which he really hasn't).

 

It will be interesting to see how this offseason shakes out. Over the past three seasons, Greinke isn't terribly different than Edwin Jackson, though Zack strikes out quite a few more batters (around 7 vs. 9 K/9). ERA+, walks, hits/9, etc. are all pretty similar and they're the same age.

 

If teams go after Greinke and not Jackson, pursue Edwin (though he's a Boras client... ugh).

 

At this point, I'm starting to believe that most of the hype around Zack Greinke is because his name is Zack Greinke. He's still a good pitcher but he hasn't been anything close to the dominant pitcher he was four years ago (his peripherals are still good, just not great) and he's been "not so dominant" in the NL, not the AL. I'm a little skeptical of the guy at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

1. Crap

2. Crap

3. Crap

4. Diamond

5. Crap

 

I think this is the most likely outcome right now. The Twins will say "we wanted to sign these guys, but we don't think 5 year contracts make sense for pitchers", and all the really good pitchers will get 3-5 year deals, and the Twins will use the leftovers.

 

That said, I think Gibson and Hendriks are better than "crap", so to me it is more like:

 

1. a number 4 starter signed for low dollars

2. a number 4 starter signed for low dollars

3. Diamond

4. Gibson (moving to a 3 over time)

5. Hendriks (moving to a 4 over time)

[Boom Boom]

1. Diamond

2. Baker

3. Blackburn

 

and then a couple dumpster-dive moves. Maybe Jeff Francis and Bartolo Colon.

[stringer bell]

I don't think Pavano, Liriano, or Baker will be back. The year after rehab is typically poor for TJ patients so getting anything from Baker would be a stunner. He will be a free agent, as well. An innings eater coming off a season when he didn't eat innings is of little value. I don't expect many will offer much for Pavano, but the rebuilding Twins shouldn't take an interest unless he is truly dirt cheap. If Liriano isn't traded, he will probably net the Twins a draft pick, but I can't see the Twins outbidding everyone for Francisco on the open market and it would make zero sense for Frankie to sign an extension with free agency so close.

 

I think Gibson will have a chance to make the rotation out of the spring. If his recovery is complete, he will go the the AFL and if he pitches acceptably, he'll be in line to compete for a spot.

 

My plan for rotation 2013: Diamond is there. The best of the rotation for the balance of 2012 (De Vries, Walters, Deduno, Blackburn ) gets the edge for a spot. The Twins sign one guy in free agency who gets a spot and trade for a guy this month who is pencilled in for a spot. The final spot comes from the farm with Gibson the favorite if healthy and effective for the balance of 2012.

[chopper0080]

1-Shaun Marcum (3yrs)

2-Anibal Sanchez (4yrs)

3-Scott Diamond

4-Nick Blackburn

5-Liam Hendriks/Cole DeVries/Kyle Gibson

[nicksaviking]

I want to see the Angels get another arm, like Liriano, before the deadline and look to retain said arm the following season. This would cause them to second guess picking up Dan Haren's $15.5 million option. After a down year, Dan Haren may not be able to command the contract normally expected and he may fit into the Twins budget if he has to settle for a more reasonable offer. He's still only 31 and is not someone with major injury concerns.

[Vervehound]

1. Diamond

2. Baker

3. Blackburn

 

= 111 losses

 

btw, the beej, bj hermsen is going to see innings in 2013 whether you like it or not.

[Badsmerf]

= 111 losses

 

btw, the beej, bj hermsen is going to see innings in 2013 whether you like it or not.

Verve coming out (of the closet) with his guns blazing.

[shs_59]

Agreed we essentially have to do 2 things.....

 

1A Find the next Pavano.....Colby Lewis, McCarthy and Shawn Marcum are probably possibilities. (the key is to get them for less than 8.0 Million a year) like 5-7.

 

1B Bring back Scott Baker !!!!!!!!!!!!! -after declining option, bring him back for cheaper, incentive laden

 

1) FA 2) Scott Baker 3) Anibal Sanchez? (if others leave) 4) Diamond 5) Gibson, Hendriks, Blacky.................Bromberg, Lanigan, Hermsen, Darnell, Walters....

[IdahoPilgrim]

I don't think Pavano, Liriano, or Baker will be back. The year after rehab is typically poor for TJ patients so getting anything from Baker would be a stunner. He will be a free agent, as well. An innings eater coming off a season when he didn't eat innings is of little value. I don't expect many will offer much for Pavano, but the rebuilding Twins shouldn't take an interest unless he is truly dirt cheap. If Liriano isn't traded, he will probably net the Twins a draft pick, but I can't see the Twins outbidding everyone for Francisco on the open market and it would make zero sense for Frankie to sign an extension with free agency so close.

 

 

So you're in favor of offering him $12M for next year? That's the only way you get a draft pick if he leaves - offering that much and having him turn it down.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

So you're in favor of offering him $12M for next year? That's the only way you get a draft pick if he leaves - offering that much and having him turn it down.

Honestly I'd rather give liriano 12 million for one year... than twice that for 3 years. I still don't trust him yet. He has the talent... but he's had the talent since 2006... Also... his pitching has improved since he switched back to violent mechanics... he's well on his way to another tommy john.

 

if the Twins don't trade liriano... don't re-sign him... and don't offer him enough money to net a draft pick... **** that would be stupid.