Plouffe and the Mid Market Payroll

[terrydactyls]

I'm not sure you'll find a more definitive response by any GM than those responses to Bernadino. You can be of the opinion that it's a smoke screen to protect Plouffe, but those words are concise and declarative. Not much to parse there but unwavering support of a Plouffe.

If a GM calls and says "I'll give you my best utility infielder and my 63rd best prospect for Plouffe" and Ryan doesn't "entertain" this trade offer, that does not mean he isn't open to a trade. I think he is trying to say he didn't get a worthwhile offer and did it in GM-speak to not hurt Plouffe's feelings. Personally, I have more confidence in Twins management (which includes Molitor) than I do in the declarations of arm chair GMs - myself included.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If a GM calls and says "I'll give you my best utility infielder and my 63rd best prospect for Plouffe" and Ryan doesn't "entertain" this trade offer, that does not mean he isn't open to a trade. I think he is trying to say he didn't get a worthwhile offer and did it in GM-speak to not hurt Plouffe's feelings. Personally, I have more confidence in Twins management (which includes Molitor) than I do in the declarations of arm chair GMs - myself included.

 

First, what you did there was read into his statements.  You may be right, GMs do that sort of thing, but understand that while you've been accusing others of reading into the comments, it's really your take on it that's inferring something.  I'm taking him at his word.  I'm not hashing his comments out or reading between the lines, I'm taking Ryan at his word.

 

It's also worthwhile to note the actual questions and not just his responses.  He was asked "how much interest was there", which is not to ask if the interest was "strong" or if there were strong suitors.  It's asking, essentially, did you get a lot of calls?  It's a backdoor way of asking if they were shopping him.  And the response was "we didn't entertain", which says to me that they weren't picking up the phone on those.  And we know why from the other comment - "he wasn't going anywhere" - meaning the team made the decision that Plouffe was part of the 2016 plans and they weren't interested in shopping his value.

 

Look, you can agree with Ryan and his decision to not even consider options to trade Plouffe.  There are valid reasons (from concerns about Sano's defense to Plouffe's own contributions) for wanting him to stay.  I disagree because of the roster's long term outlook, but I can understand wanting to keep him.  What I don't understand is why we wouldn't even consider the market for him given Sano's presence.  I understand even less why it's necessary to spin his comments to justify that.

 

I guess it's possible Ryan went out of his way to deceive Bernadino's questions with a very manipulative answer to hide their offseason actions....I just find it highly unlikely.  

[terrydactyls]

First, what you did there was read into his statements.  You may be right, GMs do that sort of thing, but understand that while you've been accusing others of reading into the comments, it's really your take on it that's inferring something.  I'm taking him at his word.  I'm not hashing his comments out or reading between the lines, I'm taking Ryan at his word.

 

It's also worthwhile to note the actual questions and not just his responses.  He was asked "how much interest was there", which is not to ask if the interest was "strong" or if there were strong suitors.  It's asking, essentially, did you get a lot of calls?  It's a backdoor way of asking if they were shopping him.  And the response was "we didn't entertain", which says to me that they weren't picking up the phone on those.  And we know why from the other comment - "he wasn't going anywhere" - meaning the team made the decision that Plouffe was part of the 2016 plans and they weren't interested in shopping his value.

 

Look, you can agree with Ryan and his decision to not even consider options to trade Plouffe.  There are valid reasons (from concerns about Sano's defense to Plouffe's own contributions) for wanting him to stay.  I disagree because of the roster's long term outlook, but I can understand wanting to keep him.  What I don't understand is why we wouldn't even consider the market for him given Sano's presence.  I understand even less why it's necessary to spin his comments to justify that.

 

I guess it's possible Ryan went out of his way to deceive Bernadino's questions with a very manipulative answer to hide their offseason actions....I just find it highly unlikely.

 

I think the very fact of several people have taken opposing positions is proof enough the the statements weren't definitive. I agree that they were concise - because concise means "brief and without any extra or unnecessary information."

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think the very fact of several people have taken opposing positions is proof enough the the statements weren't definitive. I agree that they were concise - because concise means "brief and without any extra or unnecessary information."

 

Those opposing positions may have more to do with what people want to believe than what was actually said.  He made it clear they wanted Plouffe to be a Twin in 2016 in about as concise and direct a way as humanly possible.  And when Ryan is that direct on things, at least this is what I've gleaned the last 20 years, he's telling the truth.  Lying or spinning things really isn't in his repertoire because he's just a good natured, old school guy.  

 

I guess if you want to believe he lied to Bernadino you can, just seems very out of character for Ryan.

 

It also doesn't mesh with how quickly they announced that Sano was moving to the outfield.  Something they wouldn't have done in the first week of November if they were really shopping Plouffe all offseason only to swerve the media later.  

 

 

[terrydactyls]

I never said Ryan lied to Beradino.  I still believe the language you quoted is not telling me that they are not ever going to entertain any offers.  What he said, according to what you posted, was that they "hadn't entertained any offers."  That is the past tense of the verb.  That does not preclude considering offers in the future.  Maybe Ryan doesn't understand how to use words properly.  If he meant to say what you imply, he should have said "we have not and will not entertain any offers."  That is definitive.  It is also not open to interpretation.  And it still is concise.  This meets your criteria.  What he did say doesn't meet your criteria.  Proper use of the English language is important when attempting to make clear your position.  And no, I'm not an English teacher.  But I did edit textbooks and corporate documents for many years and I know how the improper use of language can change the meaning of a message.

[DaveW]

 

 

It also doesn't mesh with how quickly they announced that Sano was moving to the outfield.  Something they wouldn't have done in the first week of November if they were really shopping Plouffe all offseason only to swerve the media later.  

Yeah, that is definitely the smoking gun in this scenario.

 

I hate to say it, but for the good of the overall franchise the best thing to happen to the Twins this season would be this:

 

Win 70-75 games

Sano hits for a .950 OPS and 35 HR's....but struggles in OF.

Bullpen implodes

 

 

Then perhaps things will change.

[The Wise One]

 

You should reread my comment.

I did, hence mine. The A's got some value for Donaldson. Plouffe is no Donaldson nor Frazier for that matter. Please feel free to refresh my as to a comparable 3b that was recently traded. Headly had a couple good years, but the Padres got a couple tomato cans and had to pay the Yankees.. There is nothing out there to even hint that offers for Plouffe would have any value. Hence there is no stupidity in not entertaining offers.

[TheLeviathan]

I never said Ryan lied to Beradino.  I still believe the language you quoted is not telling me that they are not ever going to entertain any offers.  What he said, according to what you posted, was that they "hadn't entertained any offers."  That is the past tense of the verb.  That does not preclude considering offers in the future.  Maybe Ryan doesn't understand how to use words properly.  If he meant to say what you imply, he should have said "we have not and will not entertain any offers."  That is definitive.  It is also not open to interpretation.  And it still is concise.  This meets your criteria.  What he did say doesn't meet your criteria.  Proper use of the English language is important when attempting to make clear your position.  And no, I'm not an English teacher.  But I did edit textbooks and corporate documents for many years and I know how the improper use of language can change the meaning of a message.

We are talking about the offseason, not the future. This entire conversation has been about the choices made up to now. Others have contended the Twins shopped Plouffe and found nothing. Bernadine's questions are about what the Twins did during the offseason. Both past tense. My contention, and the comments back me up, is that Plouffe was never shopped. Past tense.

 

I'm not sure why you think the discussion was about some future potential of trading Plouffe, but no one is making that argument. We are talking about the last three months.

[TheLeviathan]

I did, hence mine. The A's got some value for Donaldson. Plouffe is no Donaldson nor Frazier for that matter. Please feel free to refresh my as to a comparable 3b that was recently traded. Headly had a couple good years, but the Padres got a couple tomato cans and had to pay the Yankees.. There is nothing out there to even hint that offers for Plouffe would have any value. Hence there is no stupidity in not entertaining offers.

They decided not to shop him at all. You should always at least entertain offers, especially for guys like Plouffe.

 

As I said, I'm fine not dealing him if the returns don't justify it. Not even exploring the market first is negligent.

[alarp33]

 

Yeah, that is definitely the smoking gun in this scenario.

 

I hate to say it, but for the good of the overall franchise the best thing to happen to the Twins this season would be this:

 

Win 70-75 games

Sano hits for a .950 OPS and 35 HR's....but struggles in OF.

Bullpen implodes

 

 

Then perhaps things will change.

 

I think the 1st 3 bullets are at fairly likely to happen.  

 

I think the concluding sentence will never happen with this Org. They have not won a single playoff game in 11 seasons and there hasn't been even a whiff of change, other than when TR retired on his own.  

[beckmt]

 

I think the 1st 3 bullets are at fairly likely to happen.  

 

I think the concluding sentence will never happen with this Org. They have not won a single playoff game in 11 seasons and there hasn't been even a whiff of change, other than when TR retired on his own.  

Many of those years where in the Metrodome when the Twins had to run much more like a small market team.  Payroll is up and will probably grow when it needs to, when some of the youngsters need to make more money. 

Saying this year might go down, it could happen.  Central is supposed to be very competitive with most teams predicted to have between 78(Twins) and 86 victories.  Things went well for the Twins last year, luck may not be that high this year.  These two years in my mind where changeover years when the youngsters appeared and started to make there mark.  It was horrible injury luck that moved this back a year.  Twins should hit much better this year, though would like a bigger LH bat to balance the lineup(Arcia?). 

Most of Twins minor league thirdbase prospects are not above A or A+ ball.  I expect Plouffe to be here into next year.

On the last point, what do you expect Ryan to say in public, "oh we shopped Plouffe hard, but did not find an offer that was worthwhile",  How does that sound to the player.

[The Wise One]

 

They decided not to shop him at all. You should always at least entertain offers, especially for guys like Plouffe.

As I said, I'm fine not dealing him if the returns don't justify it. Not even exploring the market first is negligent.

On a team that is as thin on talent as the Twins are there is a question of offensive production. Get rid of one of your best, in terms of the team,  offensive weapons when the team has so few average producers is foolhardy.  Entertain bad offers so the public like you can be mollified is a waste of time. You can't name one 3b that brought back a decent return that is near Plouffe's caliber. Now, if Quentin's knees hold up, you can trade Plouffe or a B prospect and a long reliever. The peanut galley will be less than thrilled, but that is what you would get for Plouffe and why it is perfectly fine not to entertain offers.

[DaveW]

I think people are over-rating Plouffe quite a bit...let's look at the numbers:

 

2015:

14th out of 21 in WAR for 3B (guys behind him that

15 out of 21 OPS+/wRC+

It's preposterous that we are letting this kind of player dictate what we can/can't do with the future of the

franchise (Sano)

 

Everyone is dead set on getting some insane return on Plouffe, I say, who cares! Get a couple decent prospects or a lottery ticket or two and call it a day! He shouldn't be in our long term plans anyways, might as well get something decent now, let Sano play 3rd instead of messing with Sano all season and eventually trading Plouffe for the exact same return (or worse) or losing him to FA eventually.

[TheLeviathan]

On a team that is as thin on talent as the Twins are there is a question of offensive production. Get rid of one of your best, in terms of the team,  offensive weapons when the team has so few average producers is foolhardy.  Entertain bad offers so the public like you can be mollified is a waste of time. You can't name one 3b that brought back a decent return that is near Plouffe's caliber. Now, if Quentin's knees hold up, you can trade Plouffe or a B prospect and a long reliever. The peanut galley will be less than thrilled, but that is what you would get for Plouffe and why it is perfectly fine not to entertain offers.

You should always entertain just because you can never know what's out there until you listen. You can always hang up if the return is underwhelming.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think people are over-rating Plouffe quite a bit...let's look at the numbers:

 

2015:

14th out of 21 in WAR for 3B (guys behind him that

15 out of 21 OPS+/wRC+

 

It's preposterous that we are letting this kind of player dictate what we can/can't do with the future of the

franchise (Sano)

 

Everyone is dead set on getting some insane return on Plouffe, I say, who cares! Get a couple decent prospects or a lottery ticket or two and call it a day! He shouldn't be in our long term plans anyways, might as well get something decent now, let Sano play 3rd instead of messing with Sano all season and eventually trading Plouffe for the exact same return (or worse) or losing him to FA eventually.

I might agree with this IF we knew whether Sano can play third.

 

We really need to stop assuming that is fact. What happens if you give away Plouffe for pennies on the dollar and Sano is a complete disaster at third? That'd be the type of move people get fired over.

 

It's bad policy to sell low on any player. It's one of Ryan's traits I really appreciate.

[alarp33]

 

I might agree with this IF we knew whether Sano can play third.

We really need to stop assuming that is fact. What happens if you give away Plouffe for pennies on the dollar and Sano is a complete disaster at third? That'd be the type of move people get fired over.

It's bad policy to sell low on any player. It's one of Ryan's traits I really appreciate.

 

At least there is evidence to show Sano's ability at 3rd.  

 

What happens if Sano is a complete disaster in RF?  This seems to be the more likely of the two.  Do you then try to trade Plouffe in say June, and move Sano back to 3rd, where he likely hasn't taken grounders in months?  Do you just let him DH the rest of the year, making him another year removed from the field, and also rendering either Mauer or Park useless?  

[DaveW]

I might agree with this IF we knew whether Sano can play third.

 

We really need to stop assuming that is fact. What happens if you give away Plouffe for pennies on the dollar and Sano is a complete disaster at third? That'd be the type of move people get fired over.

 

It's bad policy to sell low on any player. It's one of Ryan's traits I really appreciate.

Sano was just fine in the minors at 3rd, and in his limited time last season had very good UZR and other stats. Besides if there was actually a legit and huge concern he couldn't man 3rd, then why on earth do you go out and commit multiple years to a DH type this off season? (park)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sano was just fine in the minors at 3rd, and in his limited time last season had very good UZR and other stats. Besides if there was actually a legit and huge concern he couldn't man 3rd, then why on earth do you go out and commit multiple years to a DH type this off season? (park)

I've said multiple times I thought the Park acquisition was questionable. It didn't make sense given the make-up of the current 40 man.

 

I hope the guy tears the cover off the ball and the Twins' scouts nailed it but man, it doesn't make much sense.

[REPETE]

 

You should always entertain just because you can never know what's out there until you listen. You can always hang up if the return is underwhelming.

Here's where I think we have to be careful.  TR is an honest (to a fault, sometimes) GM.  However, if he says "We didn't entertain any offers", to me, that's not the same thing as hanging up the phone the second someone called saying "What do you want for Plouffe"?  

The closest I've ever been to being in a GMs office is watching Moneyball.  If it goes like I see it, a GM calls TR, and the conversation goes like this:

GM:  Hey Terry, how about Minor league player A for Plouffe?

TR:  (thinking to himself, "that guy sucks") No, we're not entertaining offers for Plouffe.
GM:  C'mon Terry, you got the phenom in the wings, you gotta get rid of Plouffe.
TR:  We can move Sano to the OF (thinking to himself, "Come on, sweeten the offer!).

GM:  OK, we'll add Minor league player B.

TR:  (those guys both suck).  No, we're not entertaining offers.
GM:  OK, final offer, Players A & B, and a used ball bag.  
TR:  Yeah, thanks for the call, but as I said, we're not entertaining offers for Plouffe at this time. 

[TheLeviathan]

The conversation probably, more likely, started with "Hey we're interested in Plouffe" and Ryan says "Sorry, we're not taking offers".

 

Not entertaining offers means they made it known he wasn't available.  And it's clear from his comments and the actions of the team, that they indeed were planning on him being here.  

 

Had the conversation gone as you laid out I'd be fine with it.  I just don't think that's what happened.  

[nicksaviking]

 

It's bad policy to sell low on any player. It's one of Ryan's traits I really appreciate.

 

I completely agree, but this trait has tended to at least have an impact on accommodating experience/salary over potential, which I think is one of Ryan's least positive traits.

 

I would prefer not to give Plouffe away, but I don't think he's that great offensively. If Sano couldn't cut it at 3B, than SS and 3B are probably occupied by some combination of Escobar/Nunez/Polanco. I might be in the minority, but I don't think there is a huge gap offensively between Nunez and Plouffe. I might be in the super minority on this one, but I think there's a viable chance that Nunez is even an offensive upgrade to Plouffe.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The conversation probably, more likely, started with "Hey we're interested in Plouffe" and Ryan says "Sorry, we're not taking offers".

 

Not entertaining offers means they made it known he wasn't available.  And it's clear from his comments and the actions of the team, that they indeed were planning on him being here.  

 

Had the conversation gone as you laid out I'd be fine with it.  I just don't think that's what happened.  

I don't think the conversation went either way.

 

Seriously, though, offseason conversations are probably a lot more open and general (and cumulative from past seasons/offseasons) than either your example or that of the other poster.  GMs probably don't have to solicit offers for a specific player, or ask about specific players, in a given offseason to understand the current market around that specific player.

 

Examples: maybe TR had conversations with the Angels and other teams who had a big opening at 3B but never once brought up Plouffe.  Maybe he had conversations relating to Plouffe during the season with teams, particularly around when Sano came up in July, and found the market lacking then.  Maybe he told teams then to check back after the season and they never did.  Etc.  Who knows?

 

However it happened, I'm not too concerned about this specific case.  As many of us predicted, there was not much of a market for 3B this winter, generally due to low demand.  (Freese is still on the market, by the way, even with no draft pick compensation attached.)

[USAFChief]

 

I completely agree, but this trait has tended to at least have an impact on accommodating experience/salary over potential, which I think is one of Ryan's least positive traits.

 

I would prefer not to give Plouffe away, but I don't think he's that great offensively. If Sano couldn't cut it at 3B, than SS and 3B are probably occupied by some combination of Escobar/Nunez/Polanco. I might be in the minority, but I don't think there is a huge gap offensively between Nunez and Plouffe. I might be in the super minority on this one, but I think there's a viable chance that Nunez is even an offensive upgrade to Plouffe.

Huh?

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

It's not crazy to think, Plouffe is generally overrated here. He's a find player, but not irreplaceable.

[nicksaviking]

 

Huh?

 

Well the key word was "chance" but really it's more of an indictment on Plouffe and his poor on base skills than an endorsement of Nunez.

 

Also I used Nunez instead of Polanco due to Nunez being more of a known commodity, but if Polanco can draw walks and get on base, I'd probably rather have him than Plouffe.

 

I like and use OPS a lot, but it's still just made up of two components and the Twins are very overloaded in the SLG department while woefully underrepresented in the OBP. I think this team needs to consider areas where they can improve the OBP part, surely there needs to be some semblance of balance. Plouffe is an obvious spot where we can look to improve without curbing the development of the younger players.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I might be in the minority, but I don't think there is a huge gap offensively between Nunez and Plouffe. I might be in the super minority on this one, but I think there's a viable chance that Nunez is even an offensive upgrade to Plouffe.

I think "minority" and "super minority" are accurate terms here.

 

Plouffe's career wRC+ is 100, Nunez's is 89.  Their Steamer projections for 2016 are roughly the same as those numbers.  Plouffe's career low wRC+ is only 90.  Plouffe is only 12 months older (to the day -- they are June 15th birthday buddies!).  Nunez's career high walk rate is 6.5%, which is the same as Plouffe's career low.  Nunez's career high ISO was .149 last year, Plouffe's career rate is .175 (.190 last year).  Etc.

 

Then of course there's defense (I notice you limited your above comparison to offense, but metrics suggest a potentially large gap there as well, which most observers would probably agree with).

 

If the Twins moved Plouffe now with even the slightest inkling that Nunez would be a full-time 3B in the near future, they would be pilloried by a large majority.

[howieramone2]

 

I've said multiple times I thought the Park acquisition was questionable. It didn't make sense given the make-up of the current 40 man.

 

I hope the guy tears the cover off the ball and the Twins' scouts nailed it but man, it doesn't make much sense.

TR wasn't going to gamble the season on Arcia or Vargas at DH, just as he wasn't going to gamble the season with Sano at 3B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

TR wasn't going to gamble the season on Arcia or Vargas at DH, just as he wasn't going to gamble the season with Sano at 3B.

That's not really my point. Plouffe, Sano, and Arcia make sense for two positions. Sano, Park, and Arcia make sense for two positions.

 

Plouffe, Sano, Arcia, and Park don't make a lot of sense. I'm not all hot and bothered about the people manning the positions, I only take issue with the quantity of people taking the positions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Really it's more of an indictment on Plouffe and his poor on base skills than an endorsement of Nunez.

They have the same career OBP, true, but more of Nunez's is based on batting average.  And then there's a sizable difference in slugging, as I laid out above.  And of course defense would have to be part of the discussion.

 

Baserunning was not kind to Plouffe last season, I will grant that.  (-7 runs at B-Ref, although that roughly equals his prorated advantage in Rbat over Nunez last year too, which seems strange in Nunez's career offensive year... Fangraphs is a little more moderate on both counts.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

TR wasn't going to gamble the season on Arcia or Vargas at DH, just as he wasn't going to gamble the season with Sano at 3B.

I get not gambling with Sano at 3B -- but certainly he was willing to gamble with Sano at DH, which was the case before the Park acquisition.