The stock market

[Badsmerf]

Things are getting real sketchy for the market. Down 700 now, oil uncertainty and the China trade war threatening. Could just be a minor blemish, but could also be the start of a trend. Markets all over the world down big.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Things are getting real sketchy for the market. Down 700 now, oil uncertainty and the China trade war threatening. Could just be a minor blemish, but could also be the start of a trend. Markets all over the world down big.

I think the trend started a few months ago. IMO, we saw the peak of the market around that time and it's going to be a bumpy ride for at least a couple of years.

[gunnarthor]

It's my fault. I bought some stocks and that usually sends the market into a spin. My apologies.

 

[Craig Arko]

 

It's my fault. I bought some stocks and that usually sends the market into a spin. My apologies.

 

Hope you didn't buy Bayer.

[Mike Sixel]

Pesky alternative minimum tax stopped me from selling  more when we bought the house. Now I kind of wish I had just done it. Oh well. 

[Badsmerf]

I reallocated my 401k today. Still aggressive, just diversified my funds a little better. Sitting at 13% bonds now... hopefully I won't regret not putting more into bonds.

[Vanimal46]

 

Another blow for FB... But frankly, it doesn't really bother me. If the service is free, you're the product. I accept it.

[glunn]

FB is still racking up huge profits, but they need to get proactive with their privacy policies.

 

I hate taking losses because management allows gross wrongdoing. On the other hand, companies like FB and Wells Fargo can be good candidates for selling covered calls, because scandals have been tanking the stock price before the calls get taken out.

[Vanimal46]

https://gizmodo.com/apples-future-looks-rotten-1831041372

 

I agree with this assessment... Apple has stopped innovating their hardware and now has to look elsewhere to progress as a company.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

https://gizmodo.com/apples-future-looks-rotten-1831041372

I agree with this assessment... Apple has stopped innovating their hardware and now has to look elsewhere to progress as a company.

Some good points in there but a few years too late to matter, as they were obvious 3-4 years ago. Apple has been stagnating for years in every avenue except one: chip development.

 

Did you know that the chip in the iPhone is more powerful than the chip you will buy in an $800 laptop, yet costs significantly less? Did you know that the chip in the iPad Pro is more powerful than the chip you will buy in a $1200 laptop but, again, costs significantly less?

 

Apple is poised to absolutely destroy both Intel and Qualcomm. Now, they won't do it because they make their money from their devices but if that soured and they began to sell SoCs... holy ****, the market would flip on its head.

 

Literally, Qualcomm can't match what Apple was doing 18 months ago... and the gap continues to widen. Apple has come to the point where the latest iPad Pro (starting at $800, I believe) is out-powering their $1700 laptops from Intel.

 

Apple is the best processor manufacturer on the planet, PERIOD. What they're getting from wattage and power versus cost is unrivaled... and it's not close. It's a "we're 50% better, what the **** are you people even doing?" situation.

 

With that said, I would not buy their stock. They're either going to plod on or change radically, either of which will cause massive stock fluctuations.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Apple on the skids. I expect to see this start to spread to other companies. Maybe it won't happen all at once but I think we're heading for a lengthy market downturn.

[Badsmerf]

I'm hoping we'll see a bit of a resurgence..... Then I'm allocating 30% of my 401k to bonds. I don't have the swagger to play with real money like you Brock.

 

After the 2020 election I expect the market to go nuts if the economy can hang on that long. Sooner or later there has to be some sort of recession right? Right!?

[glunn]

 

Apple on the skids. I expect to see this start to spread to other companies. Maybe it won't happen all at once but I think we're heading for a lengthy market downturn.

In the short run I am praying for a bounce.

 

In the long run I am praying for the world.

[glunn]

 

I'm hoping we'll see a bit of a resurgence..... Then I'm allocating 30% of my 401k to bonds. I don't have the swagger to play with real money like you Brock.

After the 2020 election I expect the market to go nuts if the economy can hang on that long. Sooner or later there has to be some sort of recession right? Right!?

Right, unless history stops repeating.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm hoping we'll see a bit of a resurgence..... Then I'm allocating 30% of my 401k to bonds. I don't have the swagger to play with real money like you Brock.

I only play with real money because my wife has a solid 401k... and notice that I also bailed out over a year ago.

 

I missed the last boom but that's okay. I averaged around 30-35% gains for five years and then got out. I'm not exactly broken up that I missed the last bit that would have pushed me to 40-45% because had I timed it wrong, I would have been right back to 35% in two months, except my money would have been tied up for 18 months longer.

[Mike Sixel]

Shopify, Okta, New Relic.....

[gunnarthor]

 

Shopify, Okta, New Relic.....

Have really enjoyed Shopify, appreciate the tip. 

 

Don't really have much money to invest right now and our next big buy will be extremely conservative since we're growing older. Probably an index fund but maybe even some treasury bonds.

[gunnarthor]

Slightly off topic but I think this is still the right thread. I have some friends and co-workers who I'm trying to understand the value of saving. It took me until my 30s to figure that out. When did you all actively start saving (i.e. more than a job's 401k)?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Slightly off topic but I think this is still the right thread. I have some friends and co-workers who I'm trying to understand the value of saving. It took me until my 30s to figure that out. When did you all actively start saving (i.e. more than a job's 401k)?

 

Pretty much after my first job......my wife and I really wanted a cushion for emergencies.

 

I mean, I started saving when I was a kid, I had a few thousand saved up before college (which was a decent amount back then)......

[Brock Beauchamp]

Slightly off topic but I think this is still the right thread. I have some friends and co-workers who I'm trying to understand the value of saving. It took me until my 30s to figure that out. When did you all actively start saving (i.e. more than a job's 401k)?

My father is awful with money and therefore, I was awful with money... until I landed flat on my ass at age 30. Since then, I’ve been a pretty good saver.

 

The savings themselves wax and wane based on what I’m paying off so my savings account may not look great at times but it means I threw a chunk of money at something recently.

[gunnarthor]

 

My father is awful with money and therefore, I was awful with money... until I landed flat on my ass at age 30. Since then, I’ve been a pretty good saver.

.

Yeah, that's about my story too. Seriously, schools should teach basic economic realities to kids so they know how to save. We're pretty good with our kids on that now but man, I wish I had understood this stuff decades earlier.

[Badsmerf]

Slightly off topic but I think this is still the right thread. I have some friends and co-workers who I'm trying to understand the value of saving. It took me until my 30s to figure that out. When did you all actively start saving (i.e. more than a job's 401k)?

Still paying off student loans. Have a nice amount saved now, but not enough to pay them all off. In 3-5 years, and my wife working full time again, I'm sure we'll start being able to save much much more. 34 now.

[PseudoSABR]

Dude, you guys invest!?  My student loans (my own fault for such aspiration) saddles any ability to save (plus car loans); no way any bank should give me mortgage loan, but I bet if I asked, they would be game, predatorily.

[Mike Sixel]

Dude, you guys invest!?  My student loans (my own fault for such aspiration) saddles any ability to save (plus car loans); no way any bank should give me mortgage loan, but I bet if I asked, they would be game, predatorily.

College was a lot cheaper..... And we made good money, and did not buy a big house, and drove our cars into the ground. I barely made it to the dump one year driving my old car there....

[gunnarthor]

 

Dude, you guys invest!?  My student loans (my own fault for such aspiration) saddles any ability to save (plus car loans); no way any bank should give me mortgage loan, but I bet if I asked, they would be game, predatorily.

Everyone is different and I'm still paying off some of my student loans. But in my thirties my wife and I just decided we'd put X amount into longterm savings (as opposed to a short term savings account) and only lived off of what was left, which required some changes to how we lived. The longterm savings is in an investment account which we've filled mostly with individual stocks but a little bit of index funds as well. It's probably the smartest thing we've done as adults but I wish I had done it sooner.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's probably the smartest thing we've done as adults but I wish I had done it sooner.

Literally everyone who didn’t save their piggy bank money from childhood feels this way. Don’t worry about it. You’re way ahead of most other Americans in this regard.

 

Like you, I spent some time living WAY under my means in my early 30s (my now-wife and I in a studio apt for a year despite both of us having good jobs). Both cars paid off, little debt past the $550/mo in rent.

 

In that year, the two of us saved about $20k, which we turned into a house.

[PseudoSABR]

 

College was a lot cheaper..... And we made good money, and did not buy a big house, and drove our cars into the ground. I barely made it to the dump one year driving my old car there....

The car purchase wasn't super wise, but I had gone through a succession of lemons, with the final one, literally exploding at my first interview after law school.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The car purchase wasn't super wise, but I had gone through a succession of lemons, with the final one, literally exploding at my first interview after law school.

I'm pretty sure I remember seeing this on Facebook. Woof.

 

In the future when purchasing used, it's hard to beat a Toyota product. It's a big reason why we bought a used 2010 Prius a couple of years ago. Under $8k, 130k on the clock, and not a lick of problems past wear parts (got nailed with needing to replace the entire rear brake assembly because I didn't realize it was worn when I bought the car).

 

By and large, driving a Toyota is about as stimulating as watching a washing machine operate but damn, the things go almost forever (out of the top ten most reliable cars sold, about half are Toyota products).

 

When we replace the Prius, I suspect we'll avoid Toyota but that's because we'll buy newer and I actually like to drive, a feeling the Prius tries to suck out of me every time I get behind the wheel of it.

 

But if you just want Point A-to-B, can't beat 'em.

[Mike Sixel]

Brock, did you ever change the crappy interface on your Mazda entertainment system?

[LaBombo]

 

Dude, you guys invest!?  My student loans (my own fault for such aspiration) saddles any ability to save (plus car loans); no way any bank should give me mortgage loan, but I bet if I asked, they would be game, predatorily.

 

If it's any consolation, your investment in your education carries both a lower risk and a higher upside than most of the stock tips we motleys can come up with. Yes, it sounds like an awkward Hallmark card, but it's also true.

Edited April 9, 2019 by LaBombo