Twins Draft '12 = FAIL

[twinswon1991]

The Twins draft was once again an epic failure. Terry Ryan and the scouting department have failed ever since Mauer was drafted and nothing will change until they are fired.

 

Sad to see they left 1 million on the table when their farm system is depleted of even servicable arms. Without lucking into Buxton I would guess Terry and his good old boys would've been fired by now.

 

Here is what John Sickles has to say about the draft:

 

"The Twins were left with the second largest total under their allotment but when adding in the 5% that a team could overspend, they left over a million dollars on the table. That number would be close to $900k without the Mazilli signing but 100k is not counted for the players taken after the 10th. Erich Knab and James Marvel would have been good targets to offer that extra money to. The Twins could have drafted and signed a million dollar talent and chose not to. This is a failure in my eyes. They were put in a position to make an impact and did not use any strategy. They took a pile of college arms in a weak year for college arms. I am disappointed. Sorry for the rant, it frustrates me listening to Twins management on the radio about their thoughts, then seeing a plan poorly administered."

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/14/3159380/2012-mlb-draft-signing-deadline-thoughts

 

I try to talk to scouts at Twins games frequently and yesterday talking to a few they feel the Twins are so far behind the times in scouting, player development and statistical analysis that they will not recover until the house is clean.

 

The problem for all of us as fans is that the Twins org is a good old boys society and as long as you are a "nice guy" you will never be canned.

[Seth Stohs]

I guess we'll learn how good (or non-good) this draft was in about five years or so.

[twinswon1991]

I guess we'll learn how good (or non-good) this draft was in about five years or so.

I'm sure you agree with Terry Ryan's idea to pocket a mil and not go after some upside picks because you feel Twins can't use any more talent in their organization right? It's more about the poor thought process at this point in not having a plan and again not knowing the rules.

 

Just like the Capps deal where Ryan didn't realize the Twins could pocket a free Sandwich pick by letting him sign elsewhere. Which again, shows Terry Ryan does NOT put any value on the draft.

[Bark's Lounge]

Wow. You're a quick grader and a fatalist. Thanks for the pep talk buddy!

[Seth Stohs]

Terry Ryan knows the value of the draft. I definitely didn't understand signing Capps. I'm also not going to pretend I know what negotiations were like with Knab, Marvel, Robinson, etc. The Twins could have offered them each whatever amount and they could have said no. I don't know. Or, they could ahve evaluated the players to be worth a certain amount and only were willing to go a certain amount more.

 

I did talk to Radcliff this spring and he was very heavily involved this year, along with Deron Johnson. They all knew the importance of this draft.

 

Also, and Jeremy Nygaard may know this... aren't teams allowed to carry a certain amount over to next year's draft?

[ashbury]

I try to talk to scouts at Twins games frequently and yesterday talking to a few they feel the Twins are so far behind the times in scouting, player development and statistical analysis that they will not recover until the house is clean.

Anybody here buy a single word of this sentence?

[twinswon1991]

Also, and Jeremy Nygaard may know this... aren't teams allowed to carry a certain amount over to next year's draft?

If this is true than I must apologize for the overreaction. Still Don't you have to talk to these prospects ahead of time regarding signability? To leave that much on the table this year when you could sign 2 or more potential impact prospects to start in your system this year has to be more valueable than carrying the money over to next year.

 

I hope Jeremy can shed some light on this issue of carryover money.

[twinswon1991]

Anybody here buy a single word of this sentence?

I am fortunate to have the money to sit in the primo seats which gives me ability to talk to scouts. You would be suprised how many are nice guys who are willing to talk. Some, especially when they are focused on the pitcher on the mound will not give you the time of day.

 

I see you are from Nevada, go to Cashman Field some day and sit behind home plate. There are usually scouts at minor league parks and those guys can be fun to talk to.

[greengoblinrulz]

Im not one of the guys freakin out over Mazzilli, but if you knew he was a higher ranked guy who would want to be paid like a higher pick, why draft him?

I hate wasted picks....if you're gonna draft someone, sign him.

Still confused by the Bard pick, esp with the ROCs Mitch Brown available (who was rated very high)

I do agree with them bein a good ole boys club.

[Bark's Lounge]

Anybody here buy a single word of this sentence?

I wouldn't buy it with food stamps. Maybe with Monopoly Money... on 2nd thought.. nah.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Terry Ryan knows the value of the draft. I definitely didn't understand signing Capps. I'm also not going to pretend I know what negotiations were like with Knab, Marvel, Robinson, etc. The Twins could have offered them each whatever amount and they could have said no. I don't know. Or, they could ahve evaluated the players to be worth a certain amount and only were willing to go a certain amount more.

 

I did talk to Radcliff this spring and he was very heavily involved this year, along with Deron Johnson. They all knew the importance of this draft.

 

Also, and Jeremy Nygaard may know this... aren't teams allowed to carry a certain amount over to next year's draft?

Nope. Teams can't carry any unused bonus over (yet). I think it's possible that the "draft pool" will be re-evaluated and at some point it will be possible. Possibly a 3- to 5-year rolling "draft pool".

 

I agree to an extent with Sickles - and said it yesterday as well - that I wish there would have been a Plan B if Mazzilli wasn't going to take the money (and the overage). Maybe that was Zach Larson, maybe others said no. Unfortunately, as Seth said, we don't know how negotiations went with any of those guys. Knab said last week he was going to school. Maybe the Twins came in with a better offer that was shot down.

 

In the Twins defense, the Twins have thrown big money at middle-round picks in the past. Some have said yes (Tonkin, Malinowski, Higginbotham), some have turned down huge money (Ramsey) and returned to school. Others have been taken knowing the price tag was excessive (Nick Burdi) and probably was always only a Plan B. The way this year's draft was going to play out was completely unpredictable.

 

I'm on the record saying that I am disappointed by the draft, but I'm not ready to call it en epic failure. The organization added a handful of flame-throwers, something that was previously non-existent. They may all be out of baseball in two years, or maybe three of them become shutdown relievers. Maybe one develops into a frontline starter.

 

The Twins took (a league-high) 23 of BA's top 500 prospects. They did fail to sign seven of them, and that hurts a little. Of the top 500 prospects, though, 401 of them signed. On average, that's 13 players per team, the Twins got 16 of them... including the best one in the draft.

[DaveW]

Wow, I really hope this user is a troll (albeit a rather terrible one)

 

Just because you have $1 million to spend doesn't mean you should always spend it or overspend on players who don't deserve it, its not like that money will suddenly vanish from thin air within the Twins organization.

 

That's like saying: Hey the Twins payroll budget had an extra 2 million to spend, maybe we should have given Rodney 2.7 million this off-season instead of 700,000, I mean the money was there right?

 

As far as the draft goes its impossible to grade now or anytime in 2012. Around a year from now you can start making a few preliminary grades but even that is rushing to judgement.

 

From first glance I like what the Twins did, obviously it would be nice if we could have drafted 10 pitchers that throw 100 MPH, but we def got some nice high upside guys. I am curious to see just how many of these hard throwing college relievers we can turn into starters, if we can turn one of them into a starter it would be a huge win.

[DPJ]

I have no idea what the hell the Twins gameplan for this draft was. Drafting an army of flawed college relief arms isn't how you rebuild a system. I wish the BYTO forum was still up cause I even mentioned that I bet the Twins will leave a bunch of money on the table and dammit if those cheap bastards didn't prove me right.

 

In the end we won't know what how this draft class was for years, but they took a flawed strategy when this farm system deperatly need an infusion of talent.

[Thrylos]

Let me start with saying that I do not care much about Ryan. That said, I don't think that there was a single player available when the Twins picked with their first 2 picks who would be absolutely a no-brainer better than who they picked. It is not like Giolito fell down on the supplemental round and did not pick him. Mazzilli, like his dad, is a guy better suited for DH and PH. Why waste money in that kind of skillset? I'd rather see them invest the money they saved another way. It is not like they passed on someone because of the money...

[Badsmerf]

The Twins didn't leave a heap of money. Looking at the .9 million is a flawed view. They have a certain amount per slot they could go over before getting taxed. Obviously the unsigned kids weren't worth throwing that much extra money at. What did they have, 160 thousand left? How much did it cost to get Sano ect. If anyone thinks these guys that didn't sign are worth a ton of money right now you're kidding yourselves. Even Appel, the most polished pitcher in the draft, might not even make it. Plus, nitpicking about someone like Mazzilli is just overboard. I'm not a fan of every selection, but complaining about money spent is the last thing you should complain about. DPJ has it right, complain about the abundance of college relief arms chosen over starters (unless they can successfully convert a few). Complain about the players chosen, because that is where the Twins have the most control. With the way the draft is set-up now, players will either sign for their slot (or a little over) or not at all.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not too concerned about this draft, although like Garroch (the minorleagueball writer - not Sickels) that I wish the Twins had been able to spend a bit more and bring in a guy like Marvel. I think the Twins have done a nice job adding talent through the draft and latin america over the last couple seasons - Buxton, Harrison, Felix Jorge etc - but it'll be a long time until we know if those moves are successful.

 

The attacks on Ryan are getting old. I think he'll be fine. Additionally, I'd love to know how much (in all areas) the Pohlads limit spending. Was Ryan told he could only spend about 11.5 in this draft or that he couldn't go over and get a penalty (which would drastically lower that 1m accusation).

[ashbury]

I see you are from Nevada, go to Cashman Field some day and sit behind home plate. There are usually scouts at minor league parks and those guys can be fun to talk to.

I see you are from Minnesota, go to Wrigley Field some day. A long day's drive of 400 miles, for either of us. If your knowledge of geography is half as good as your knowledge of baseball, then you still know nothing about either one. Supposing you've talked to someone before the game, they're likely going to just go along with your strong-held assumptions rather than argue with some stranger.

[PseudoSABR]

Do we have an ignore feature on this forum? If so, I'm not seeing one. The OPer is wasting everyone's time.

[Roaddog]

I just dont see it. terry Ryan cut his teeth as a scout so he knows the value of good scouting. Do i like all of their picks? No, but they have made an effort to add what they had been lacking. Power arms, power hitters.

[IdahoPilgrim]

The Twins draft was once again an epic failure. Terry Ryan and the scouting department have failed ever since Mauer was drafted and nothing will change until they are fired.

 

Sad to see they left 1 million on the table when their farm system is depleted of even servicable arms. Without lucking into Buxton I would guess Terry and his good old boys would've been fired by now.

 

Here is what John Sickles has to say about the draft:

 

"The Twins were left with the second largest total under their allotment but when adding in the 5% that a team could overspend, they left over a million dollars on the table. That number would be close to $900k without the Mazilli signing but 100k is not counted for the players taken after the 10th. Erich Knab and James Marvel would have been good targets to offer that extra money to. The Twins could have drafted and signed a million dollar talent and chose not to. This is a failure in my eyes. They were put in a position to make an impact and did not use any strategy. They took a pile of college arms in a weak year for college arms. I am disappointed. Sorry for the rant, it frustrates me listening to Twins management on the radio about their thoughts, then seeing a plan poorly administered."

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/14/3159380/2012-mlb-draft-signing-deadline-thoughts

 

I try to talk to scouts at Twins games frequently and yesterday talking to a few they feel the Twins are so far behind the times in scouting, player development and statistical analysis that they will not recover until the house is clean.

 

The problem for all of us as fans is that the Twins org is a good old boys society and as long as you are a "nice guy" you will never be canned.

C'mon, don't hold back. Share what you really think. It doesn't do any good to hold this stuff in and internalize it and let it fester.

[old nurse]

The Twins draft was once again an epic failure.

Are you for real? They drafted players. The highest drafted player not to sign was a ninth round pick. With slot values in place they had over a left million to spend. In 5 years if you can show me 1 player drafted below the ninth round that is a star, then you can call it a failure. If you can show me one player drafted after the ninth round that should have been found with "advanced" metrics, i would appreciate that. Bill James has been in the front office for Boston since 2003. Has their system returned to being the best in baseball. 52 and 63 for their top 2 prospects in the top 100@mlb.com Moneyball Oakland's prospects are at 42 and 68. If you consider .500 a success their scouting is working. There still is no method to project baseball success, only look back at how well you have done.

[old nurse]

I just dont see it. terry Ryan cut his teeth as a scout so he knows the value of good scouting. Do i like all of their picks? No, but they have made an effort to add what they had been lacking. Power arms, power hitters.

I would have thought it more prudent to draft high school pitchers and develop them than a non star quality college pitcher. Perhaps in hindsight they could have seen any time after the 3-5 round the quality high school arm and thrown the extra money at them.

[Turd Furgeson]

Here is what John Sickles has to say about the draft:

 

"The Twins were left with the second largest total under their allotment but when adding in the 5% that a team could overspend, they left over a million dollars on the table. That number would be close to $900k without the Mazilli signing but 100k is not counted for the players taken after the 10th. Erich Knab and James Marvel would have been good targets to offer that extra money to. The Twins could have drafted and signed a million dollar talent and chose not to. This is a failure in my eyes. They were put in a position to make an impact and did not use any strategy. They took a pile of college arms in a weak year for college arms. I am disappointed. Sorry for the rant, it frustrates me listening to Twins management on the radio about their thoughts, then seeing a plan poorly administered."

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/14/3159380/2012-mlb-draft-signing-deadline-thoughts

 

Sickels didn't write that, Matt Garrioch did.

 

The only guy that we didn't sign in this draft that I'm interested in watching is Joey Gallo right now. He's absolutely destroying rookie league, granted it's rookie league and he's young but hot damn if he isn't tearing things up. We would have had to pass on Berrios to sign Gallo anyway so I'm not sure that would have been the best idea, but I'll still be watching Gallo to see how he does in the coming years.

[darin617]

I'm sure you agree with Terry Ryan's idea to pocket a mil and not go after some upside picks because you feel Twins can't use any more talent in their organization right? It's more about the poor thought process at this point in not having a plan and again not knowing the rules.

 

Just like the Capps deal where Ryan didn't realize the Twins could pocket a free Sandwich pick by letting him sign elsewhere. Which again, shows Terry Ryan does NOT put any value on the draft.

Was the Capps deal under the Bill Smith era?

[gunnarthor]

Was the Capps deal under the Bill Smith era?

Ryan resigned him. And, unlike what the OP said, Ryan was aware that Capps could get the Twins a pick in the supp draft. Star Tribune had an article on it at the time.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Gallo was too expensive for the Twins to draft at #32. If they knew they'd have to pay Bux $6m, there was no way to fit Gallo in their budget.

 

The deal that Capps is currently playing under was this past offseason, under Terry Ryan.

 

EDIT: I just looked it up, the Rangers drafted five college seniors and a JUCO guy and signed them collectively for $938,600 under slot. Gallo was signed for $925,200 over slot.

[darin617]

Was the Capps deal under the Bill Smith era?

My mistake, I thought you were talking about the Capps for Ramos deal.

 

My problem with the draft is that they drafted a bunch of relief pitchers. So will they be able to convert some of these arms to SP? I just hope nobody they drafted gets clocked above 96 mph or they will be traded since they wouldn't fit into the system of pitching to contact.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

My mistake, I thought you were talking about the Capps for Ramos deal.

 

My problem with the draft is that they drafted a bunch of relief pitchers. So will they be able to convert some of these arms to SP? I just hope nobody they drafted gets clocked above 96 mph or they will be traded since they wouldn't fit into the system of pitching to contact.

In the interviews after the draft, the talk was about the lack of "power" in the system, both bats and arms. So that's what they were looking to add. And they did. We won't know what they plan on doing until next spring. Berrios, for example, will definitely be a starter and he's currently GCL's closer, just because he has innings on his arm this year already. I would guess Bard, Melotakis and Jones will get a shot to start. Chargois, in my opinion, fits much better as a bullpen guy.

[Turd Furgeson]

Gallo was too expensive for the Twins to draft at #32. If they knew they'd have to pay Bux $6m, there was no way to fit Gallo in their budget.

 

The deal that Capps is currently playing under was this past offseason, under Terry Ryan.

 

EDIT: I just looked it up, the Rangers drafted five college seniors and a JUCO guy and signed them collectively for $938,600 under slot. Gallo was signed for $925,200 over slot.

I'm not surprised. I hadn't crunched the numbers but I knew that Gallo was going to be a more expensive sign.

[glunn]

 

I try to talk to scouts at Twins games frequently and yesterday talking to a few they feel the Twins are so far behind the times in scouting, player development and statistical analysis that they will not recover until the house is clean.

 

Twinswon has taken a lot of flak today, but I don't believe that he is making up the fact that scouts have told him this. Such scouts may or may not be correct, but I do not believe that this is a fabrication.