Article: Ryan, Twins Left Out In The Cold At Winter Meetings

[Dantes929]

 

You really think they'll have 2 rookies in the bullpen to start the year? And why wasn't Rogers up last year, if he's ready this year?

Darnell would probably be just as good as Rogers and I am not a big we need a lefty just to get one out every other game either and Berrios probably won't start the year in the rotation and as was pointed out by dman Hughes and Nolasco in the pen isn't a very good bet either.   This isn't my prediction of what the Twins would do but just pointing out that the cupboard isn't bare.   It is pretty close to what I would have penciled in even though I don't like May out of the rotation.     I have no problem with rookies taking some spots.   They have to start somewhere and I just want the talent to start falling into place.    IMO May, Duffey, Gibson, Santana and probably Milone have earned a spot in the rotation and Berrios has earned a shot to pitch with the Twins.   I am not down on Hughes or Nolasco but don't want them given the spot based on pre 2015 years or on how much they are paid.   They can be assets in the pen.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Would've been nice to do more but let's also be honest - the Winter Meetings ain't what they used to be.  Lots of teams did nothing or very little.  

I don't know, there seemed to plenty of moves this week, even some pretty big ones.  A quick scan of MLBTR shows 21 different teams making MLB trades or signings over the 3 days of the winter meetings, and that's not counting a few that made moves just before.  A lot of relievers came off the board too.

[TRex]

Two quick points:

1. MLBTR indicates that "Trade Talks Around Jake McGee Intensifying", and links the Twins to the TB reliever.
2. Do Alex Meyer and Tyler Duffey really have anything left to prove in AAA?

The Twins could go into spring training with a penciled-in rotation of

1. Santana,
2. Hughes,
3. Gibson,
4. Nolasco and
5. Milone (with May, Duffey, Berrios, Rogers and Dean:) as backups)

Which could leave them with a bullpen of:

1. Perkins
2. Jepsen
3. May
4. McGee
5. Meyer
6. Duffey
7. Fein (with Tonkin, Graham, Pressley, Rogers, Darnell, and O'Rourke as alternates)

I think I would be happy with that bullpen.

[gmarais66]

I don't think it's so much that Ryan was left out in the cold, he just never came in from the cold when things were heating up inside. I'm not sure why anyone is surprised by this. Since he has returned as the Twins' GM, Ryan has typically made one or two flashy moves (Park this year) then fills in the rest of the holes in the roster with bits and pieces he can pick up off the scrap pile. Between now and spring training he'll sign a few re-tread relievers and a AAAA outfielder, and that's about the best we can hope for. I'm like everyone else. I keep hoping this is the year where things will be different. Maybe this will be the year where they make some serious moves to improve the lineup... But hopes are fading and it looks like more of the same from TR.

[savvyspy]

 

With all due respect, I think this is 100% inaccurate... if anything, TR may move too quickly most offseasons. 

 

The year he came back, he signed Josh Willingham and Jamey Carroll before the Winter Meetings (I think there was a third guy too).

 

Three years ago, he traded Denard Span before the Winter Meetings and Ben Revere in the Winter Meetings.

 

Two years ago, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were both signed before the winter meetings.

 

Last year, he signed Ervin Santana at the Winter Meetings.

 

Of course, in recent years, the Twins have had more needs. This year, they've been pretty vocal. They want one thing, LH RP. They don't have it yet. We'll see if he gets it or if not, if he'll go after a Storen or someone really good like that. 

I think all of this talk about the Winter Meetings boils down to this. ANYONE trying to make economic decisions needs to have an established market. Otherwise there isn't enough information to know whether or not you are making a wise decision.

 

Generally prior to the Winter Meetings the market isn't set and usually it is set during the meetings. This season was no different.

 

When Ryan traded Hicks neither the market for a starting center fielder nor a backup catcher was set and Ryan acted anyway. In hindsight, Ryan did not get good return for what he gave up. This isn't surprising since he didn't know the market and was HOPING acting earlier would work. He basically gambled and lost. It was foreseeable and what was the most likely scenario played out. He overpaid for a backup catcher.

 

Fast forward to the Winter Meeting when the bullpen market was set and movement of players began to happen. Ryan now has all of the information needed to make a decision and yet he does nothing. Not all teams make good decisions with better information but the odds are better that you will. In the long run people making decisions in set markets will do better than people trying to guess the market.

 

In the end, its not the timing itself,  its the decisions you make given the time you make them. 

 

If you are going to make a decision prior to a set market you need to be blown away. It needs to be obvious that the offer is above market or a player is signing well below market in the case of free agency. This is rare to be sure so the amount of deals done in this time period should be minimal. In Ryan's case he seems to prefer making all of him moves prior to the Winter Meetings. This usually doesn't work out well because it isn't likely to work out well given the information you have at the time about the market and comparative value of the assets.

 

He then compounds the problem by sitting out the Winter Meetings where the markets are being set and there are plenty of willing teams ready to deal and free agents looking to sign. It is possible that Ryan did have all of the information and understood the market and didn't view any value in any of the trades or possible signings. Its certainly not likely but you could believe with all of the deals being made Ryan just didn't encounter one that made sense economically nor filled a need. That might explain this season. But Ryan has a history of doing this almost every year.

 

In the end Terry Ryan is like the Blackjack player that sits on 13 and hits on 18. Technically he's playing blackjack he's just doing a very predicable poor job of it.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Sorry guys but judging the Twins off season based on a particular time frame, whether that be a month, a week or a day makes no sense.

 

While I understand that the team did not sign some viable talent to deals - we should not assume that the dealing is done either.  

 

Relief pitchers are notoriously unpredictable - so putting big money out for a player who will pitch 50 innings tops seems risky.   Further, given that this team's best days are ahead of them - meaning beyond 2016, it seems wiser to consider controllable high upside arms.   Bottom line, trades make much more sense than free agency.  

 

There is plenty of time for a deal to happen that can fulfill the club's needs.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry guys but judging the Twins off season based on a particular time frame, whether that be a month, a week or a day makes no sense.

 

While I understand that the team did not sign some viable talent to deals - we should not assume that the dealing is done either.  

 

Relief pitchers are notoriously unpredictable - so putting big money out for a player who will pitch 50 innings tops seems risky.   Further, given that this team's best days are ahead of them - meaning beyond 2016, it seems wiser to consider controllable high upside arms.   Bottom line, trades make much more sense than free agency.  

 

There is plenty of time for a deal to happen that can fulfill the club's needs.  

 

so, don't try to get better next year? Or do try to add players to the team?

 

Why does giving up players AND money make more sense than giving up money?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Why does giving up players AND money make more sense than giving up money?

 Either way, sounds like we're giving up.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Dang.

[Thrylos]

 

Unless I'm missing something, Terry Ryan has never--not once--signed a reliever from another organization to more than a 1 yr contract.  In going on 2 decades as Twins GM.

 

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised.

 

Interesting question, so I went back:

 

Technically in 1996 he signed Aquilera to a 4 year contract the off-season after he traded him to Boston.

In 1997 he signed Greg Swindell for 2 years

in 1999 he signed Bob Wells for 2 years  and signed him again for another 2 in 2001, after traded him to the WSox in 2000.

In 2004 he signed Terry Mulholland to 2 years

 

So 2 years is as high as he goes externally.  And the norm is 2-3 years for relievers these days...

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

Why does giving up players AND money make more sense than giving up money?

 

Because: 

 

a. that way you usually ending up giving less $, since the players you get are in old (and lower) contracts

b. Got to give up players in positions you have too many, otherwise they will leave without getting anything back.  See Jones, Zack,  Guerra, Deolis, Achter AJ, Pinto Josmil, etc  

 

Tell me:  Would you get a decent reliever if you packaged those 4 say in the 2015 trading deadline, instead of loosing them for nothing in the 2016 off-season?  I think so.

 

That's why trades make actually more sense that most free agent signings...

[Loosey]

 

Failed starters turned reliever 1. Guerrier, 2. Deunsing, 3. Rincon 4.Joe Nathan 5. LaTroy Hawkins 6. Eddie Guardado not counting Perkins so the above comment about not transitioning failed starters is void.

If we are going to go that far back we can pretty much say every reliever in baseball was a failed starter at some point in their respective careers.  I can't recall many kids growing to saying, "I hope to be a middle reliever".  Starting pitchers get the glory and the money, when they aren't good enough to do that they move on to the next step which is reliever.  If they are really good in that role they move into a better relief role (back end relievers) and build themselves nice careers and end up getting paid that way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1. MLBTR indicates that "Trade Talks Around Jake McGee Intensifying", and links the Twins to the TB reliever.

We're not really "linked" to McGee.  There are general reports of trade discussions about him, but no one knows the teams involved.  MLBTR then lists the Twins as "known to be looking for left-handed relief help" and not likely "to make a play for top-of-the-market free agent lefties."

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/rays-jake-mcgee-trade.html

 

 

From the source of the rumor, it sounds like the Twins would be competing against the Dodgers at least for McGee's services...

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't know, there seemed to plenty of moves this week, even some pretty big ones.  A quick scan of MLBTR shows 21 different teams making MLB trades or signings over the 3 days of the winter meetings, and that's not counting a few that made moves just before.  A lot of relievers came off the board too.

 

Yes there were some big moves, but mostly it was piddly stuff.  The trading was down from where it used to be.

 

We needed to sign a reliever, I agree, but let's not make it out to be something like the Twins avoiding a feeding frenzy.  That wasn't the case.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interesting question, so I went back:

 

Technically in 1996 he signed Aquilera to a 4 year contract the off-season after he traded him to Boston.

In 1997 he signed Greg Swindell for 2 years

in 1999 he signed Bob Wells for 2 years  and signed him again for another 2 in 2001, after traded him to the WSox in 2000.

In 2004 he signed Terry Mulholland to 2 years

 

So 2 years is as high as he goes externally.  And the norm is 2-3 years for relievers these days...

Aguilera was actually re-signed to be a starting pitcher.

 

The others you list pitched multiple seasons for the Twins, but actually originally signed here as minor league free agents.

 

Swindell:

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1683&dat=19961219&id=E6UaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=Bi4EAAAAIBAJ&pg=2808,3479678&hl=en

 

Bob Wells:
http://apple.ease.lsoft.com/scripts/wa-PLUTO.exe?A2=ind9901&L=TWINS&P=28688

 

And Mulholland was on a minor league deal with Seattle, and "purchased" by the Twins on April 2, 2004:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mulhote01.shtml

 

I also found no record of Bob Wells ever being traded. I suspect he re-signed for 2 years (2000-2001), and did find this record of an additional year extension being signed:

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=min&year=2001&month=2

 

So I think the original claim stands.

Edited December 11, 2015 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes there were some big moves, but mostly it was piddly stuff.  The trading was down from where it used to be.

What year do you think the winter meetings saw much bigger moves?  I am curious, might be fun to read about.

[nicksaviking]

I have to say, if the Twins end up trading for McGee now, they might get eaten alive.

 

Wouldn't the logical question be, "Why didn't you trade for him last July when he was reportedly available and the team desperately needed him in the pen?" I'd guess Souhan would start gathering up the townsfolk and the pitchforks after about a half hour.

 

Maybe I'm wrong.

 

Either way, after seeing what Giles and Kimbrel went for, I'm pretty sure I'm not interested.  Giles got Velasquez, Fisher and Oberholtzer.  Velasquez is a top 100 guy and Fisher very likely will be.  The Rays will probably be asking for Kepler.   What's the best the Twins can get away with here, some kind of combination of Polanco, Gonsalves, Duffey?  The market is set, and it is ridiculous.

[drjim]

 

Because: 

 

a. that way you usually ending up giving less $, since the players you get are in old (and lower) contracts

b. Got to give up players in positions you have too many, otherwise they will leave without getting anything back.  See Jones, Zack,  Guerra, Deolis, Achter AJ, Pinto Josmil, etc  

 

Tell me:  Would you get a decent reliever if you packaged those 4 say in the 2015 trading deadline, instead of loosing them for nothing in the 2016 off-season?  I think so.

 

That's why trades make actually more sense that most free agent signings...

 

I don't. Pinto was hurt and the others showed little. Considering the 40 man situations, acquiring those 4 would be more negative than positive for a team, certainly not worth a decent reliever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wouldn't the logical question be, "Why didn't you trade for him last July when he was reportedly available and the team desperately needed him in the pen?" I'd guess Souhan would start gathering up the townsfolk and the pitchforks after about a half hour.

I don't think McGee was really that available in July.  The Rays were trying to move Jepsen, who was older, more expensive, had less team control remaining, and wasn't left-handed.  I suspect the McGee price then is similar to the price now (high).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

See Jones, Zack,  Guerra, Deolis, Achter AJ, Pinto Josmil, etc  

 

Tell me:  Would you get a decent reliever if you packaged those 4 say in the 2015 trading deadline, instead of loosing them for nothing in the 2016 off-season?  I think so.

Nobody is taking on 4 marginal 40-man guys in one trade, especially two out of options (Guerra and Pinto).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Nobody is taking on 4 marginal 40-man guys in one trade, especially two out of options (Guerra and Pinto).

Probably true but I think Thrylos's point still stands. We now know that San Diego had interest in Pinto and Thielbar, and San Diego was open to trading Craig Kimbrel, and the Twins have prospects who will never see the field anymore (Vargas), so it's fair to wonder if: a group of new or slightly-used prospects, + one valuable guy (Gibson? Kepler?), might have landed Kimbrel last July.

 

I know it's all hindsight and we don't have much information, but it's not that far-fetched to consider. 

[magiklair]

I think Terry Ryan tries to make the club "Competitive". But he doesn't have the mentality to go big.. There were so many relievers this year and we just were in a different area code. I truly don't think we will ever win the first round of the playoffs with Terry Ryan..I'd like to see change (GM) , but don't see that happening anytime soon

[TheLeviathan]

What year do you think the winter meetings saw much bigger moves?  I am curious, might be fun to read about.

Feels like it was years ago. I just read an article, will have to find it, that was cataloging the changes. I think it was on yahoo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Feels like it was years ago. I just read an article, will have to find it, that was cataloging the changes. I think it was on yahoo.

This it?

 

http://news.yahoo.com/mlb-lobby-trades-disappear-winter-meetings-014700664--spt.html

[TheLeviathan]

 

This it?

http://news.yahoo.com/mlb-lobby-trades-disappear-winter-meetings-014700664--spt.html

 

Yeah, there was another that said technology has made face to face conversations happen anywhere, anytime so the need to have a sit down at a hotel is also no longer necessary.

[TKGuy]

Jake McGee from the Rays is still on the block. Didn't start 2015 while recovering from surgery. 48K in 37.1 IP with 0.94 WHIP

[Kwak]

The Twins have an army of RPs in the organization--use them.  The cream will rise.  After all, how many times have we heard "...the best minor league system..." and "..this guy has got huge upside...".  These guys are only asked to pitch ONE inning.  The rubrik is not walks, or pitches thrown, it is opponents' runs scored.  The rest is just stats for bar talk--analogous to football's "time of possession", or "hang time of punts".

[Brandon]

Mike several of those guys played multiple seasons 7 8 9 and 10 years ago and deunsing was here the last 7.

[Brandon]

If you read the rumors the Twins are looking to sign a reliever as a bridge with a 1 year contract.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Ryan made 3 moves a couple weeks back, so I don't get the consternation over inactivity. 

 

That said, I don't quite get the "find a 1 year bridge" idea either.  A guy like Sipp or O'day for example will likely be effective for more than one year, and if we hit it big with Chargois, Meyer, Burdi, and Reed, you can still move one of those guys further back in the pen, which makes for one heck of a pen.  But the reality is that some of those kids will probably struggle, so having someone around for a bit more than a year makes sense.  I'm not against picking up a Storen, but with Jepsen gone next year, I'd much rather have someone effective who will stick around for a couple more seasons.