Twins Lose Zack Jones in Rule 5

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ha.

 

Glen Perkins K/9 as a starter was in the mid to low 4s but jumped to 10 in the pen.  Liam Hendricks went form around 6.0 to around 10.0. Mariano Rivera was in the mid 6s and then jumped to 8.0-9.0 as a reliever.

 

To look at the other side, Mike Pelfrey's went from 5.1 to 3.9.

 

Point is, we have no idea what Pat Dean the reliever will look like but to say he won't be able to strike people out is crazy.  His K/9 has been around 5.0.

Perkins had a career K/9 of 8.7 as a minor league starter, Hendriks 7.6, and Rivera 8.0, which are probably the more appropriate points of comparison for Dean's minor league K/9.

 

Context should matter too -- in Rivera's final AAA season (1995), the International League had a K/9 of 6.2, as compared to 7.1 in 2015.  Strikeouts are way up in baseball, making Dean's low K rate even more noteworthy.

 

I'm pretty comfortable forecasting Pat Dean's future K rate, regardless of role.

[DocBauer]

Well....since I took the time to read everything to this point...guess I might as well toss in a few thoughts of my own.

 

I think it's safe to say the Twins and their various staffs know their own players much better than we do. Now, I am not going to debate Dean vs Jones, BUT, I am going to say it would seem plausible to me that the Twins feel several other young RP candidates have shown better, have more upside, are closer to helping than Jones at this point, and decided that Dean provided more organizational depth/worth AT THIS POINT, than another RHRP that has fallen behind several other RHRP.

 

You can't protect everyone. The Twins have players picked. The Twins pick players. Some turn out. Most don't. Still a good chance Jones gets returned anyway. (again, not debating Dean vs Jones, just stating a fact)

 

I often find the debates about Nunez to be interesting if not a touch humorous. He is a utility player. Every team needs utility type bench players. Said players usually play excellent defense but can't hit, or they can hit a little bit, but maybe play average to below average defense. If they could both hit and field, they'd be a starter. Nunez is no gold-glover, but he's OK, and he swings a decent bat with some pop and has a little speed. Not sure what's so bad about that. Santana has more potential, to be sure, but Nunez is probably the the more consistent player at this point.

[sane09]

"Honest question, if it wasn't a surprise to the Twins, why did they leave him unprotected?"

 

This is my "honest" answer.
Maybe the Twins weren't surprised, because they knew other teams liked Jones.
They didn't protect him, because they didn't like him as much as they knew that the other teams liked him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Throws in the low-to-mid 90s

Really?  I've never seen Dean associated with that level of velocity.

 

From the Rochester newspaper, highlighting his successful 2015 season: "his fastball doesn't hit over 90 mph very often"

 

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/baseball/minors/2015/08/02/dean-stellar-red-wings/31036593/

[DaveW]

 

Really?  I've never seen Dean associated with that level of velocity.

 

From the Rochester newspaper, highlighting his successful 2015 season: "his fastball doesn't hit over 90 mph very often"

 

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/baseball/minors/2015/08/02/dean-stellar-red-wings/31036593/

Yeah, Dean sits 87-89 mostly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think it's safe to say the Twins and their various staffs know their own players much better than we do. Now, I am not going to debate Dean vs Jones, BUT, I am going to say it would seem plausible to me that the Twins feel several other young RP candidates have shown better, have more upside, are closer to helping than Jones at this point, and decided that Dean provided more organizational depth/worth AT THIS POINT, than another RHRP that has fallen behind several other RHRP.

I think it would still come down to Dean vs. Jones.  A good spring on the 40-man roster and Jones could be in right back in the RP mix.  I'm struggling to come up with scenarios where Dean is in the mix for anything in 2016.

 

And once you invoke the term "organizational depth" -- that's exactly the kind of guy you leave unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.  Because teams don't use the Rule 5 draft to acquire "organizational depth" so you shouldn't be afraid of exposing such depth to the draft.  We still had another year of control over Dean, there would have been a better case for protecting Dean if he was going to become a minor league free agent and the 40-man add was necessary to keep him in the org.

 

If Dean had been selected in the Rule 5 draft, would anyone have cared?  We'd still have Milone, Rogers, O'Rourke, hopefully a FA LH reliever, and a bunch of RHP.  Sign Andrew Albers to take his place way down there on the depth chart.

[sane09]

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/get-to-know-red-wings-lhp-pat-dean-r4086

By his own admission:

"Knowing that he doesn’t throw hard enough to blow fastballs by hitters, he has to mix and match to be effective. He also knows that he has to have pinpoint control........"

"I know I don’t have an electric fastball, but ....."

[d-mac]

 

What do you base this on? Tell us more? Or is this just a guess? Because then I guess he wins the Cy Young as a closer in 2018 and its just as valid!

 

Plenty of guys have Dean's track record and become useful major league relievers who sign long term contracts or even go to the Hall of Fame. No one is saying he's going to actually make the Hall but to say his upside is cup-of-coffee is ludicrous. Plenty of failed AAAA starters have become very good relievers with spiking K/9 rates. Dean has a fastball which sits in the low-to-mid 90s so if he adds 2-3MPH pitching in shorter stints (not everyone does this but many do) he may be able to join that number. He also throws four pitches as a starter so concentrating on just 2 or 3 may also help him in short stints.

 

Dean also does not profile as a LOOGY since he has relatively decent splits (in 2015 LH hit .218 off him and RH hit .269). In fairness, he did give up all ten HRs to righties so there may be some slugging issues but increased velocity and not throwing four pitches might help with that and it isn't like righties are hitting .310 off him so its a decent omen of potential success.  (Couldn't find better stats there but they don't DQ him by any means).

 

Pat Dean is intriguing which is not surprising - by definition, most successful AAA starters (especially lefties) are interesting as relief candidates. For sure no guarantees but there is a lot of potential there.

 

Holy Hyperbole Batman! Well, maybe a starter that doesn't strike anybody out as a minor leaguer nor get same side hitters out really well is why I'm doubtful he'll be successful. Let's run a quick comparison between Perkins and Dean. Both are lefties, college draftees that started in the minors and Perkins has been successfully converted to a reliever. 

 

Perkins:

A+ K/9- 10.1

AA K/9- 9.1

AAA K/9- 7.0

 

Dean:

A+ K/9- 5.0

AA K/9- 4.8

AAA K/9- 4.9

 

What indication do YOU have that Dean would be a successful reliever? You're using 100% conjecture, at least I have hard numbers to back up my point.

[d-mac]

 

Perkins had a career K/9 of 8.7 as a minor league starter, Hendriks 7.6, and Rivera 8.0, which are probably the more appropriate points of comparison for Dean's minor league K/9.

 

Context should matter too -- in Rivera's final AAA season (1995), the International League had a K/9 of 6.2, as compared to 7.1 in 2015.  Strikeouts are way up in baseball, making Dean's low K rate even more noteworthy.

 

I'm pretty comfortable forecasting Pat Dean's future K rate, regardless of role.

 

Glad somebody else pointed this out too.

[d-mac]

 

"Honest question, if it wasn't a surprise to the Twins, why did they leave him unprotected?"

 

This is my "honest" answer.
Maybe the Twins weren't surprised, because they knew other teams liked Jones.
They didn't protect him, because they didn't like him as much as they knew that the other teams liked him.

 

But why do they like Dean so much? Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of confidence in the Twins ability to properly evaluate their own players.

[TRex]

 

DaveW, on 10 Dec 2015 - 09:25 AM, said:
Honest question, if it wasn't a surprise to the Twins, why did they leave him unprotected?

Frankly I would have rather had Jones in the org still then Fien locked into a bullpen spot.

Not to disparage one of our own, but the reality is that Zach Jones is a 25-year old, who was drafted out of college as a reliever, and who has not had any success above high-A ball in his 4 years with the Twins. His walk rate in AA last year was 6 per 9 innings, and a personal report on TD suggested that his velocity was down  at the end of the year. In addition (IMHO), he was behind (or had been passed by) a horde of other relievers, including: Meyer, (Rogers), (Darnell), Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Melotakis, Williams. He was also out-played by several other high-strikeout relievers in AA, including Alex Wimmers, Brandon Peterson and Cole Johnson. I don't understand why people are so hung up on this... unless it is really just a cover for their anger over Pat Dean occupying the 40th roster spot.

 

In terms of Dean, his significance is not that he is great, it's just that he would be the second starter called up from Rochester (following Berrios) (my guess assuming that Rogers is either in the BP, or still cannot neutralize RH batters). Think of it as the corollary to the third catcher argument... teams protect their 8th (most MLB-ready) starter before their 15th best reliever. People don't have to like it (and it is quite obvious some don't), but it seems to be how clubs structure their rosters.

 

 

[zchrz]

Lots of teeth gnashing for a guy who is super likely to be returned.  Mil is going to have to bite the bullet pretty hard to stick him in the majors all year.  He doesn't have success over A ball, has an injury history, is the wildest of the 5-6 hard throwers in the organization, and hasn't found consistency with his slider yet which is 1 of only 2 pitches. 

 

Pat Dean is waiver fodder for the 40 man when they need to make a move eventually and don't want to expose someone better to waivers.   

[Platoon]

Let me try some quick mental math:

 

21 teams (+Milwaukee in the 1st round) didn't take Zach Jones when they could have.

 

21*40+36=896

 

We are lamenting the loss of the 896th (at best) most highly regarded (by all of the actual MLB front offices) 40-man roster player.

 

The loss of Zach Jones (if he sticks) goes in the same category as losing Billy Bullock and Eduardo Morlan. Baseball Blog Posters Dig Hard-Throwing Relievers and Hate Back-up Catchers.

 

Actual front offices trade real assets for guys like Drew Butera and Chris Hermann.

 

I think the Twins brilliant 40 man roster management just yielded an easy $25,000-50,000. That should be enough to hire three or four more beer guys at Target field.

Your quick math was too quick and maybe too simple. The 40th man on some rosters might be worse than even the 36 that were picked up ahead of Jones. Therefore we will have to do an entire analysis of all 895 players that are theoretically above Jones! Since this is a monumentous task, I think it best to break it into smaller pieces! I will start. Mauer > Jones! Who's next. If everyone chips in, my quick math says we can add about 45 more pages to this meaningful exercise in futility!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Last year Twins chose Wheeler over Gilmartin.

Gilmartin had a nice year in the pen as a LOOGY for the Mets while the Twins struggled to find a LH bullpen guy all year.  Wheeler was DFA'ed.

 

This year the Twisn Chose Dean over Jones

Dean is a lefty who does poorly vs LH hitters.  Jones is a question mark.  

No arguments about last year... But Gilmartin and Jones are not even in the same conversation. Gilmartin had success in the upper minors, a guy who had the chance to thrive under the right circumstances.

 

Jones, on the other hand, is still a long way from MLB. The Twins, rightly so, are in a "win now" mode. The casualties of such a strategy are that you'll occasionally lose a guy like Zach Jones because keeping a flawed prospect on the 40 man for over a season without hope of his contributing to the MLB squad is a tough pill to swallow.

 

No matter whether the Twins keep Dean or Jones, I suspect neither has a 40 man spot by July of 2016.

[BrianTrottier]

 

Did the Rule 5 losses of Roberto Clemente, Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton "matter one bit"?

 

Those rare exceptions don't outweigh the vast majority of cases that actually don't matter one bit.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pat Dean is waiver fodder for the 40 man when they need to make a move eventually and don't want to expose someone better to waivers.   

Actually, because we added Dean to the 40-man when we did, he can't be passed through waivers (for the purposes of removing him from the 40-man and sending him to AAA) until 20 days before the 2016 season, or roughly March 15.  See the section here about "Draft Excluded Players":

 

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:F1XRaX9XeYAJ:www.thecubreporter.com/draft-excluded-player+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari

 

The only way we can get Dean off the 40-man roster in the meantime is releasing him (making him a free agent) or trading him.

 

So if you really rate Dean that lowly, but want to keep him around for depth in 2016, you can make the argument the Twins would have been better off NOT protecting him.  (That's actually the argument I'm making -- I may have protected Jones over Dean, or kept Achter/Pinto longer, or just left the spot open for a potential waiver claim, free agent, etc.)

[Platoon]

No arguments about last year... But Gilmartin and Jones are not even in the same conversation. Gilmartin had success in the upper minors, a guy who had the chance to thrive under the right circumstances.

 

Jones, on the other hand, is still a long way from MLB. The Twins, rightly so, are in a "win now" mode. The casualties of such a strategy are that you'll occasionally lose a guy like Zach Jones because keeping a flawed prospect on the 40 man for over a season without hope of his contributing to the MLB squad is a tough pill to swallow.

 

No matter whether the Twins keep Dean or Jones, I suspect neither has a 40 man spot by July of 2016.

. Should the Twins be in a "win now" mode? Or should they be in a "refine now" mode, laying the ground work for mid 2016 forward? They have not dealt at all with their mediocre over stuffed SP, their low SO BP, and are facing starting the year with a completely unproven right fielder, possibly a fill in CF, and a DH who has never swung a bat in the majors. That does not a "win now" situation make. They still can, and they might, but so far it's not the off season of a team in win now mode!

[cmoss84]

 

I feel like it will go down like this:

 

TR: We want Zach Jones back and we want Lucroy

Mil GM: We want Buxton

TR: Ok, you give us Jones and Lucroy and Miller Lite and we'll give you Buxton.  And then we'll give you a grain belt.

Mil GM: Ok

TR: Then we'll give you back the Miller Lite and you give us Buxton.

Mil Gm: Ugh...ok

TR: Then we'll give you the Miller Lite and we'll take the Grain Belt.  Nice trading!

I could sure go for a can of Lucroy and a frosty cold Grain Belt. Seriously though, let's go get him and our lefty Smith. Good way to end the meetings.

[Dman]

 

No arguments about last year... But Gilmartin and Jones are not even in the same conversation. Gilmartin had success in the upper minors, a guy who had the chance to thrive under the right circumstances.

 

Jones, on the other hand, is still a long way from MLB. The Twins, rightly so, are in a "win now" mode. The casualties of such a strategy are that you'll occasionally lose a guy like Zach Jones because keeping a flawed prospect on the 40 man for over a season without hope of his contributing to the MLB squad is a tough pill to swallow.

 

No matter whether the Twins keep Dean or Jones, I suspect neither has a 40 man spot by July of 2016.

 

Yeah they are likely gonna have to find 40 man spots for Berrios and Burdi and maybe even Reed so those last few spots will likely get taken mid year for sure.  Also the talent level will be a level higher next year and other higher potential candidates will have to be added to the 40.  Jones is likely just the start of some tough decisions that lay ahead.

[Pitz]

 

Given that Jones was Milwaukee's second Rule 5 pick, I expect Jones to be returned to the Twins at some point next season.  The hand-wringing over this is probably much ado about nothing.  

 

What would winter baseball talk be without much ado about nothing?

[USAFChief]

 

Yeah they are likely gonna have to find 40 man spots for Berrios and Burdi and maybe even Reed so those last few spots will likely get taken mid year for sure.  Also the talent level will be a level higher next year and other higher potential candidates will have to be added to the 40.  Jones is likely just the start of some tough decisions that lay ahead.

None of Berrios, Burdi, Reed, or any other non-40 man Twin has much if anything to do with the decision to keep Dean over Jones.

 

Those decisions will come, or not come, regardless who the Twins kept this winter.  

[Seth Stohs]

I like Zach. He's a good guy and a pitcher with some upside. But consider this, how many hard throwing right-handed relievers are ahead of him in the pecking order right now. make a list.

 

Jepsen, May, Meyer, Chargois, Burdi, Reed, ... And Landa throws harder with better control.

[sane09]

Decisions are easier AFTER the Rule 5 draft, free agency, and arbitration when everyone has a full 40-man roster again. It's easier to get someone through waivers when the other teams are trying to do the same thing.

[DaveW]

 

I like Zach. He's a good guy and a pitcher with some upside. But consider this, how many hard throwing right-handed relievers are ahead of him in the pecking order right now. make a list.

Jepsen, May, Meyer, Chargois, Burdi, Reed, ... And Landa throws harder with better control.

May shouldn't be a reliever.

 

But how many SP are ahead of Dean now?

[Han Joelo]

 

Your quick math was too quick and maybe too simple. The 40th man on some rosters might be worse than even the 36 that were picked up ahead of Jones. Therefore we will have to do an entire analysis of all 895 players that are theoretically above Jones! Since this is a monumentous task, I think it best to break it into smaller pieces! I will start. Mauer > Jones! Who's next. If everyone chips in, my quick math says we can add about 45 more pages to this meaningful exercise in futility!

I agree totally--way too quick and simple.

 

On another note, the Padres have FOUR Rule V players now.  Without debating the relative merits of protecting Jones vs. Player X, I'm thankful the Twins are Rule V sellers, and not shoppers.

 

With the Yankees losing 7 players combined in both portions, is that a reflection of signing a lot of young international players that need protection early?  Just curious.

[Dman]

 

None of Berrios, Burdi, Reed, or any other non-40 man Twin has much if anything to do with the decision to keep Dean over Jones.

 

Those decisions will come, or not come, regardless who the Twins kept this winter.  

Yep i agree with you this is not a defense of keeping Dean but agreeing with Brock that in the end it really doesn't matter because both will likely be bumped off the 40 man by better talent.

[Han Joelo]

The same front office that gave up on Ortiz unearthed Santana.  The same front office that unearthed Chris Collabello also gave up(?) on him too soon.  The same front office rule V drafted and then traded 

Billy Bullock for Scott Diamond (where are they now.)  JR Graham for Sean Gilmartin…oh wait, depending on your perspective, it was Wheeler for Gilmartin.  

 

The point being, I accept this front office isn't, and never will be perfect.

 

I also accept the fact some people will always aspire for a "perfect" front office.  I just hope there is room (a lot of room) on the scale between "perfect" and "utterly incompetent as proven by the decision to protect Pat Dean over Zach Zones."

[sane09]

 

May shouldn't be a reliever.

 

But how many SP are ahead of Dean now?

Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, Hughes, Nolasco, Milone, Rogers, Darnell, plus May/Meyer in emergency.

Just eleven SP's ahead of Dean.

He is just one Ebola epidemic away from the Big Leagues.

[Brock Beauchamp]

. Should the Twins be in a "win now" mode? Or should they be in a "refine now" mode, laying the ground work for mid 2016 forward? They have not dealt at all with their mediocre over stuffed SP, their low SO BP, and are facing starting the year with a completely unproven right fielder, possibly a fill in CF, and a DH who has never swung a bat in the majors. That does not a "win now" situation make. They still can, and they might, but so far it's not the off season of a team in win now mode!

The Twins were within reach of a postseason berth with three games remaining last season. They should absolutely be in "win now" mode.

 

"Win now" doesn't mean you have to start trading prospects and mortgaging the future. It can also mean you're prioritizing players you believe will help soon over players you see contributing in the somewhat distant future, if at all.

[twinssouth]

Hated to see Jones go, have mix emotions.  

 

As DMan pointed out, his velocity was down on the games I saw, regularly hitting 94 vs the 98 to 100 in 2013.  Now, he may have hit triple digits this year but I'm not aware of it. The Twins also changed his mechanics and looked like a different pitcher then from Spring Training 2013 when I first saw him.

 

He had those injuries in 2014 that could have really set him back and this year was his first full season.  Now I saw him in July without wipeout velocity and thought, he's tiring due to the extended absence.  Next year he will be 2 years removed from injuries.  If he's fully healthy and regains his arm strength in ST, then the Brewers have something.  If he doesn't, then he could end up back with the Twins.  That's the gamble the Brewers took and my guess is most MLB teams knew this and wasn't willing to take the gamble.

 

The good news is we didn't loose some of the other players, like Williams and Michael.