MLB Rumors: A lot of interest in Plouffe

[kab21]

 

That would be a ridiculous reason not to shop him during the offseason.

I didn't say don't shop him now.  I am not concerned if the Twins can't trade him now.  The way that they lose in this situation is if they force a trade now.

[Kwak]

 

Here:   Ranking of 2015 third basemen by fWAR.  x marks the spot.  Check who is a couple ticks below him with only about half Plouffe's PAs...   Value?  Sure.  To those teams other than the ones that have a third baseman with more value than him.  Will the Yankees give up Betances for him?  I doubt it.

 

Conspicuously missing from this list are several big revenues teams:  Yankees, Red Sox, Detroit, Houston, and Phillies.  Probably several of these teams will be in serious contention come July and have designs on an "upgrade" at 3B.

 

There is one reason that Plouffe could have more trade value at the ASB (or next offseason).

 

This is a strange offseason where 3B is really, really deep and most contending teams are set at the position.  The key to his trade value is a contending team really needing him.  If a team loses their 3Bman (to injury) in June/July and are playing Matt Macri for any length of time then they are going put an offer out there that is better than any of this mediocrity that we have read about.

Exactly.  I merely implied the "need" basis for a trade (sorry for to those who require a more detailed explanation) that the yield from a mid-season Plouffe trade could well be more fruitful than an off-season trade.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I didn't say don't shop him now.  I am not concerned if the Twins can't trade him now.  The way that they lose in this situation is if they force a trade now.

Right on.

[dbminn]

 

Actually, MLBTR predicted Freese would get 3/30, not 3/33, and only noted the third year as "possible" so it's likely he has to field two year offers as well.

 

 

I was quoting Dave Cameron of FanGraphs for the Freese contract. I agree the actual terms of his new contract could vary from either estimate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In 2015, Plouffe would have been 3rd in WAR on the Mets and 5th on the Royals among position players (WS teams)

 

Seems to me he has been a guy that has value.  About the definition of one of the better players on a championship caliber team. 

Actually, by raw fWAR, Plouffe is tied for 4th on the 2015 Mets with Murphy who had nearly 100 fewer PA than Plouffe, so I think it's safe to give the "tiebreaker" to Murphy and rank Plouffe 5th.

 

And the 2015 Mets and Royals each had 3-4 additional positions/players better than 2015 Plouffe in terms of accumulating fWAR per PA too

 

Ranking 5th in a counting stat, and maybe 8th in its corresponding rate stat, on a select sample of 2 teams, even WS participants, is pretty meaningless when trying to gauge potential trade value.  Bill Pecota would have ranked 5th in fWAR on the 1991 Twins, and 2nd on the 1991 Braves, but it didn't mean much for his trade value (he was included as a utility guy in the Bret Saberhagen blockbuster that winter).

[tobi0040]

 

Fangraphs "qualified" filter doesn't work well over multiple seasons.  Players have to qualify each of their seasons to make that list.  Bryant makes it because he qualified in 2015 but didn't play in 2014, Dominguez makes it because he qualified in 2014 but didn't play at all in 2015.

 

But Freese doesn't qualify despite 980 PA over the two years because he fell 30 PA short in 2015.  Others that don't qualify for that list, but have more PA than Bryant include Turner, Harrison, Uribe, Duffy, Wright, etc.

 

Thanks for the clarification.  I find you to be extremely knowledgeable and I am glad you are active on this site

[TheLeviathan]

No one wants to force a Plouffe deal, but I'm glad indications are that conversations are happening.  Having demand for a player is the first step in having value and if the rumors are true than there appears to be some demand.

 

Hopefully it's enough to entice someone to give up something spicy.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Conspicuously missing from this list are several big revenues teams:  Yankees, Red Sox, Detroit, Houston, and Phillies.  Probably several of these teams will be in serious contention come July and have designs on an "upgrade" at 3B.

Pretty sure the only serious contention the Phillies will be in come July will be the race for the #1 overall draft pick.

 

And of course, many of the names around or above Plouffe on that list will probably be available in July too.

 

Plouffe is a good, useful player, but it's awfully hard for that level of player to ever really "corner the market" in trade, whether offseason or trade deadline.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for the clarification.  I find you to be extremely knowledgeable and I am glad you are active on this site

Thanks, I especially appreciate how you left off the eye-roll emoticon from the end of that statement.

[sane]

A Plouffe for Gott (plus?) trade with the Angels would create a few reunions.

 

Plouffe went to Crespi HS in SoCal.

 

Gott is a Kentucky Wildcat, as are Alex Meyer, Logan Darnell, Taylor Rogers and Kyle Cody (crap!).

 

OK. Substitute Nick Burdi (Louisville) for Kyle Cody (unsigned 2nd round draft choice).

[beckmt]

We seem to be forgetting the Frazier is also available.  Twins will probably have to wait and see where Frazier lands before Plouffe gets decent offers from the losers in the Frazier sweepstakes.  Or maybe Twins will see a decent offer when clubs find how high the price is on Frazier.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Frazier will certainly set the market.  But i'd imagine he's going to cost quite a bit more than Plouffe, who can likely be had for a shut down reliever and a semi-decent prospect. 

[drjim]

Actually, by raw fWAR, Plouffe is tied for 4th on the 2015 Mets with Murphy who had nearly 100 fewer PA than Plouffe, so I think it's safe to give the "tiebreaker" to Murphy and rank Plouffe 5th.

 

And the 2015 Mets and Royals each had 3-4 additional positions/players better than 2015 Plouffe in terms of accumulating fWAR per PA too

 

Ranking 5th in a counting stat, and maybe 8th in its corresponding rate stat, on a select sample of 2 teams, even WS participants, is pretty meaningless when trying to gauge potential trade value. Bill Pecota would have ranked 5th in fWAR on the 1991 Twins, and 2nd on the 1991 Braves, but it didn't mean much for his trade value (he was included as a utility guy in the Bret Saberhagen blockbuster that winter).

WAR by PA? Yikes.

 

So we are discounting guys that play everyday and pumping up guys that are hurt or are able to exploit favorable platoon matchups?

 

I'll go out on a limb and state teams don't value players the same way. They might not expend assets thinking they can cover for holes but they would take the everyday guy every time and probably by a significant margin.

 

I'm admittedly a WAR skeptic in some ways, but merely lining up a list of players, sorting by WAR, and pretending that represents how teams would value players strikes me an especially poor use of the metric.

[Eris]

 

A 3 WAR position player is worth a hell of a lot more than a "solid" bullpen arm. It better be a great bullpen arm.

Even a great bullpen arm might not be equivalent.  From Fangraphs the top relief pitcher this past year were Cody Allen and Chapman with a WAR of 2.6 and 2.5 respectively.  There were 32 starting pitchers with a WAR 3.0 or greater.  In Mariano Rivera's bests season (2008) he had a WAR of 3.2.  Also Denard Span has a career WAR average of about 3 / season.  Trading Plouffe for a relief pitcher seems like a poor idea.  Additionally, we have no idea whether or not  Sano will be a decent defensive 3rd baseman.  As the Blue Jays found with playing Colabello in the field, someone who is contributing significantly offensively can seriously impact the team in a negative way when they are a defensive liability (-14 DRS).  Because the Twins continued to play Plouffe at 3rd last year, I suspect that there are people in the Twins organization who question Sano's ability at third base.  

[Major League Ready]

Someone may have already mentioned this but Plouffe COULD net the team that trades for him a compensation pick two years from now.  He will be 31 and probably gets a 3-4 year deal so that team probably makes a qualifying offer.  That’s pretty significant and that's my pitch if I am TR.

[Riverbrian]

i like the idea of 25 guys who can all play.

 

I like the idea of insurance if a youngster goes all sophomore slumpie on us.

 

I like the idea of options and I like the idea of playing the hot hand even if it means Mauer sits for a few games in a row so Plouffe Sano and Park can all be in the lineup.

 

I think saying so and so is the starter therefore so and so should go is a mistake.

 

I think having the proverbial good problem to have is indeed... A good problem to have.

 

I believe Plouffe has value to the 2016 Twins and he should not be moved unless we get value for 2016 in return. Do not trade him for prospects!!!

 

Moving Plouffe simply because Sano is there is not a reason to move him for prospects. It just weakens us at a time when it's time to strengthen.

 

If you can't get someone who can help us right now. Don't do it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

WAR by PA? Yikes.

So we are discounting guys that play everyday and pumping up guys that are hurt or are able to exploit favorable platoon matchups?

The poster I was responding to was severely discounting such players as Zobrist, Wright, d'Arnaud, Conforto, Flores, Uribe, etc. on the basis of raw WAR accumulated with a given team in a given season.  Several of those cases had little or nothing to do with health or platooning in 2015 -- Zobrist and Uribe were traded to new teams midseason, Conforto was a minor league call-up, Uribe was a full-time player, etc.

 

Also note that I referred to "positions" as well as players.  Wright may have been hurt much of the season, but with an assist from Uribe, the Mets actually had more fWAR from the 3B position than the Twins last year.

 

That's the context under which I brought up WAR per PA, sorry I thought that would be clear with the quote I included.

 

I'm admittedly a WAR skeptic in some ways, but merely lining up a list of players, sorting by WAR, and pretending that represents how teams would value players strikes me an especially poor use of the metric.

Tell it to the other poster who tried connecting Plouffe's trade value to ranking 5th among position players in raw fWAR on each of the World Series teams last year.

 

I wasn't advocating a perfect use of the stat, just pointing out the same flaws that you see with it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Someone may have already mentioned this but Plouffe COULD net the team that trades for him a compensation pick two years from now.  He will be 31 and probably gets a 3-4 year deal so that team probably makes a qualifying offer.  That’s pretty significant and that's my pitch if I am TR.

Freese didn't get a qualifying offer after his age 32 season, and with a clear trend toward QO acceptance, it's not at all clear Plouffe will deserve one after his age 31 season either.  (And heck, the QO system may change by that point too.)

 

It should be about as much of a factor for an acquiring team as it should be for the Twins if we retain him (very little).

[drjim]

 

The poster I was responding to was severely discounting such players as Zobrist, Wright, d'Arnaud, Conforto, Flores, Uribe, etc. on the basis of raw WAR accumulated with a given team in a given season.  Several of those cases had little or nothing to do with health or platooning in 2015 -- Zobrist and Uribe were traded to new teams midseason, Conforto was a minor league call-up, Uribe was a full-time player, etc.

 

Also note that I referred to "positions" as well as players.  Wright may have been hurt much of the season, but with an assist from Uribe, the Mets actually had more fWAR from the 3B position than the Twins last year.

 

That's the context under which I brought up WAR per PA, sorry I thought that would be clear with the quote I included.

 

Tell it to the other poster who tried connecting Plouffe's trade value to ranking 5th among position players in raw fWAR on each of the World Series teams last year.

 

I wasn't advocating a perfect use of the stat, just pointing out the same flaws that you see with it.

 

Fair points, I used my response to you to address several posts other than yours (I should have included that in my response).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Even a great bullpen arm might not be equivalent.  From Fangraphs the top relief pitcher this past year were Cody Allen and Chapman with a WAR of 2.6 and 2.5 respectively.  There were 32 starting pitchers with a WAR 3.0 or greater.  In Mariano Rivera's bests season (2008) he had a WAR of 3.2.  Also Denard Span has a career WAR average of about 3 / season.  Trading Plouffe for a relief pitcher seems like a poor idea.  Additionally, we have no idea whether or not  Sano will be a decent defensive 3rd baseman.  As the Blue Jays found with playing Colabello in the field, someone who is contributing significantly offensively can seriously impact the team in a negative way when they are a defensive liability (-14 DRS).  Because the Twins continued to play Plouffe at 3rd last year, I suspect that there are people in the Twins organization who question Sano's ability at third base.  

WAR doesn't really treat relievers fairly, especially late inning relievers.

 

If a shutdown guy comes out in the eighth or ninth inning of 75% of the games where the team is leading or tied, his effect on the outcome of the team's W/L record is tremendous. WAR doesn't account for that, which is why I generally avoid position player to reliever comparisons (even position player to starting pitcher comparisons are tenuous).

 

If Plouffe could be traded for a shutdown reliever with 2-3 seasons of control, that's a fair trade of talent. The Twins don't particularly need Plouffe but they really need a dominant arm in the eighth inning.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If a shutdown guy comes out in the eighth or ninth inning of 75% of the games where the team is leading or tied, his effect on the outcome of the team's W/L record is tremendous. WAR doesn't account for that, which is why I generally avoid position player to reliever comparisons (even position player to starting pitcher comparisons are tenuous).

WAR incorporates reliever leverage, both at Fangraphs and B-Ref.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Plouffe could be traded for a shutdown reliever with 2-3 seasons of control, that's a fair trade of talent.

Just out of curiosity, who would fit your definition of "a shutdown reliever with 2-3 seasons of control"?  Doesn't have to be one available in trade for Plouffe, just wondering what that standard is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

WAR incorporates reliever leverage, both at Fangraphs and B-Ref.

Oh, good to know. Is this a new addition? I could have sworn that wasn't the case a few years back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Just out of curiosity, who would fit your definition of "a shutdown reliever with 2-3 seasons of control"?  Doesn't have to be one available in trade for Plouffe, just wondering what that standard is.

Eh, I'd have to dig through available options and I don't feel like doing that.

 

I'd classify the term "shutdown" as someone between, say, Kevin Jepsen and Wade Davis. Not necessarily the best reliever in the league but consistently well above average. Somewhere just north of 9-ish K/9, 2.5-ish BB/9, that sort of guy. One of the better relievers in the league, a guy who could be a "closer" if given the right opportunity but not eye-poppingly dominant.

[Major League Ready]

 

Freese didn't get a qualifying offer after his age 32 season, and with a clear trend toward QO acceptance, it's not at all clear Plouffe will deserve one after his age 31 season either.  (And heck, the QO system may change by that point too.)

 

It should be about as much of a factor for an acquiring team as it should be for the Twins if we retain him (very little).

 

 

Freese didn't get a qualifying offer after his age 32 season, and with a clear trend toward QO acceptance, it's not at all clear Plouffe will deserve one after his age 31 season either.  (And heck, the QO system may change by that point too.)

 

It should be about as much of a factor for an acquiring team as it should be for the Twins if we retain him (very little).

You make a good point that the system might change.  However, you would think they would try to make it more viable.  You could also argue that it is actually starting to work. 

 

You may have noticed I put COULD in capital letters.  I would try to sell it if I were the Twins.  Freese  only hit 24 home runs over the past 2 years.  Plouffe could easily double that number.  Chicks dig the long ball, you know.  He is also a year younger which has some influence over the number of years teams are willing to give.  The Angels also have a bloated payroll and obviously did not want to risk it.  Put this all together and I still agree that it’s probably still better than a 50/50 chance Plouffe gets a QO but that would stop be from making a point of it with interested teams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Oh, good to know. Is this a new addition? I could have sworn that wasn't the case a few years back.

B-Ref since 2012, according to this:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You may have noticed I put COULD in capital letters.  I would try to sell it if I were the Twins.

Fair enough, I just don't think that selling point would go too far.  I doubt teams are unaware of the QO possibilities around any soon-to-be FA, it's just that Plouffe's grasp of a QO-level performance is pretty tenuous at the moment, and two years away is a long time.  A relatively minor injury or even a slight performance drop would torpedo that plan for Plouffe.

 

If the Twins tried to tell me a QO and rejection and subsequent draft pick two years from now was particularly likely for Plouffe, I'd probably follow up and ask them why don't they keep Plouffe then?  I can evaluate Plouffe's future fine for myself, I don't need a salesman to help me!

[Major League Ready]

Fair enough, I just don't think that selling point would go too far.  I doubt teams are unaware of the QO possibilities around any soon-to-be FA, it's just that Plouffe's grasp of a QO-level performance is pretty tenuous at the moment, and two years away is a long time.  A relatively minor injury or even a slight performance drop would torpedo that plan for Plouffe.

 

If the Twins tried to tell me a QO and rejection and subsequent draft pick two years from now was particularly likely for Plouffe, I'd probably follow up and ask them why don't they keep Plouffe then?  I can evaluate Plouffe's future fine for myself, I don't need a salesman to help me!

 

Fair enough, I just don't think that selling point would go too far.  I doubt teams are unaware of the QO possibilities around any soon-to-be FA, it's just that Plouffe's grasp of a QO-level performance is pretty tenuous at the moment, and two years away is a long time.  A relatively minor injury or even a slight performance drop would torpedo that plan for Plouffe.

 

If the Twins tried to tell me a QO and rejection and subsequent draft pick two years from now was particularly likely for Plouffe, I'd probably follow up and ask them why don't they keep Plouffe then?  I can evaluate Plouffe's future fine for myself, I don't need a salesman to help me!

Don't get me wrong.  You are probably right but Borris and agents like him gets more because he uses every possible argument to benefit his clients.  I just want to believe the Twins also exploit every angle in negotiating trades.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Don't get me wrong.  You are probably right but Borris and agents like him gets more because he uses every possible argument to benefit his clients.  I just want to believe the Twins also exploit every angle in negotiating trades.

Sure.  Probably comes off a little different when GMs do it, though.  The Twins could produce a 73 page binder extolling the virtues of Plouffe, but I don't think it will get a lot of traction at the winter meetings.  Indeed, any hype around Plouffe might reveal too much of our intentions to trade him.  Boras doesn't have that particular concern when negotiating a FA contract.

 

(An aside, I think Boras publicly hates the qualifying offer system, but he's probably promoted the possible comp pick as a benefit to signing his clients too. )

[nicksaviking]

So Heyman and Rosenthal are Tweeting (which is not anything close to the same as reporting) that the Padres are talking to and looking at free agent Japanese 3B Nobuhiro Matsuda.