MLB Rumors: A lot of interest in Plouffe

[stringer bell]

The thing that is fascinating about this team is that there are so few certainties. Sano may or may not be ready to step in at third base, Rosario may or may not sustain his performance on an outfield corner, Arcia may or may not come back from the brink of irrelavance, Park may or may not be able to hit big league pitching.

 

Plouffe is one of the surer things on the team. He has supplied better than league average defense and something near league average offense at a top-heavy position--there are a few good third basemen, but quite a drop after the elite ones. Usually, I wouldn't dwell on RBI, but his approach has changed to where he's more dangerous in RBI situations and his RBI numbers have gone up.

 

To the question of Plouffe's value, he'd be a step up and pretty much of a safe bet for a couple contending clubs, particularly the Angels. IMHO, if the Twins can get fair value where they have an excess (I do believe they have an excess at the corners and DH), they should make the move. It is a bit of a gamble because so little is predictable on the Twins, but I think you roll the dice with a proven player when there is quite a number of guys who can step in to make up for his absence.

[jimbo92107]

 

I wonder if Boston would be a fit.  Napoli is a free agent.  Slide Pablo to 1B next year and DH after Ortiz retires.

 

Pablo had a dWAR of -.9 last year at 3B.  Negative three of the last four.  Not going to age well.

Plouffe's pull power would play well in Boston. Lots of doubles off the Monster. Not sure where the Twins will get his level of fielding play, not from Sano. Does Polanco play 3rd?

[sploorp]

 

I feel many clubs are looking at him as a buy low candidate as they feel the Twins want to play Sano at third.

Near as I can tell, Plouffe is the best 3rd base option out there.  Teams may go into discussions thinking the Twins are don't wanter sellers, but that could change real quick once offers start getting made.  Without any real viable alternatives out there, teams have nothing to leverage a Twins counter offer back down with.  I don't see any team doing anything too lopsided, but the Twins should do well.

 

I think the team is going to be very busy during the owner's meetings, not just with Plouffe, but with some of the pitching too.  Hopefully, we have a few nice new pieces once the smoke clears.

 

The team is also in a much better position to attract free agents as well.  I know they've been kicking the tires on Soria and there might be others that I haven't heard about as well.

[sploorp]

 

Not bad, but not really a bargain if you have to surrender talent/prospects to get it while David Freese is still on the market.

I was completely unaware that Freese was on the market.  Is that just speculation or has there been actual attempts at a trade?

[sane]

 

I was completely unaware that Freese was on the market.  Is that just speculation or has there been actual attempts at a trade?

Freese is a Free Agent.

[sane]

 

Near as I can tell, Plouffe is the best 3rd base option out there.  

What everyone forgets that the list of FA 3B actually includes many from the list of FA SS, who have aged themselves out of that position.

[jsteve96]

Yeah, extremely interested in this, because this trade needs to happen. Given the fact that the Twins have, uh, solved their catcher situation (haha), I would just hope for some of those 15-20 prospects in an organization as lottery picks. The Twins got one 20-30 lottery pick for Herrmann. They could get a few 15-20ish guys for Plouffe. Jeremy Rhoades and Kyle McGowin from the Angels?

There is not a single prospect from the Angels that I would be interested in. Worst farm system I've ever seen in my life

[jsteve96]

Plouffe's value seems to be all over the map.... The Twins could probably get some thing more exciting if more players other than him are included in a trade. I really don't believe that a middle of the road 3B is causing GM's to line up outside of 1 Twins Way offering top 10 org. prospects to acquire him.

A lot of systems Top 10 prospects wouldn't even be in the twins top 20. I'd say the average top 10 would trade around a 6th best prospect for him .. Starting 3rd baseman aren't free

[jsteve96]

Sure. Like trading D. Santana midseason 2015 vs off-season 2014...

Can I unread this? Comparing Plouffes 3 consistent years to Danny Santana? Lol man... SMH..

[sane]

There is not a single prospect from the Angels that I would be interested in. Worst farm system I've ever seen in my life

Baseball America 2015 rates the Twins' farm system #2 and Angels' farm system #27 (not worst, ahead of Orioles, Braves and Tigers). And this is their job.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Baseball America 2015 rates the Twins' farm system #2 and Angels' farm system #27 (not worst, ahead of Orioles, Braves and Tigers). And this is their job.

That was before they traded Newcomb and Ellis. Probably accurate to say the Angels are worst now.

[USAFChief]

What everyone forgets that the list of FA 3B actually includes many from the list of FA SS, who have aged themselves out of that position.

None of which are better options than Plouffe.

[HitInAPinch]

 

..started by the Twins

Do you have any Plouffe of that?  

[Thrylos]

 

Can I unread this? Comparing Plouffes 3 consistent years to Danny Santana? Lol man... SMH..

 

Nope.  It says that you never know what is going to happen between now and the future and if you want to sell and someone has value, you better sell now because you don't know if he will flop, get injured etc.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nope.  It says that you never know what is going to happen between now and the future and if you want to sell and someone has value, you better sell now because you don't know if he will flop, get injured etc.

 

In the case of Plouffe, I think you are right here.  I really don't see his value going up by this time next year.  If they trade him, this offseason is probably the one to do it.

[Thrylos]

 

I think folks are drastically underestimating Plouffe's value.

 

Here:   Ranking of 2015 third basemen by fWAR.  x marks the spot.  Check who is a couple ticks below him with only about half Plouffe's PAs...   Value?  Sure.  To those teams other than the ones that have a third baseman with more value than him.  Will the Yankees give up Betances for him?  I doubt it.

 

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

Another little tidbit from MLB Rumors Mailbag:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

 

[sane]

Do you have any Plouffe of that?  

If the Twins make the trade with the Angels, we will have Gott no Plouffe at all.

[sane]

None of which are better options than Plouffe.

Some of these ageing shortstops may be future 3B.

Joaquin Arias (31)

Mike Aviles (35)

Clint Barmes (37)

Willie Bloomquist (38)

Asdrubal Cabrera (30)

Ian Desmond (30)

Stephen Drew (33)

Alexei Ramirez (34)

Jimmy Rollins (37)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What everyone forgets that the list of FA 3B actually includes many from the list of FA SS, who have aged themselves out of that position.

I don't think we are forgetting it, there just aren't a lot of FA SS either.  Asdrubal Cabrera might be the best bet for a position conversion, but he has yet to play a single MLB inning at 3B so it could be a risk.  Otherwise, the market and the metrics still view Ian Desmond as a SS, and nobody is going to sign Ramirez or Rollins to start at 3B now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Another little tidbit from MLB Rumors Mailbag:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Direct link:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/mlbtr-mailbag-plouffe-belt-oday-angels-happ.html

 

In addition to Bedrosian and Gott from the Angels, the writer also speculates about a match with the Padres and mentions Kevin Quackenbush, Brandon Maurer, and Tayron Guerrero, none of them very exciting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But look at that FA third base market. It's worse than barren. It's pathetic.

Plouffe should be able to pull back a very good reliever with 2-3 years of control or an upside prospect without much difficulty.

Again, though, the market isn't just the guys available.  You're forgetting the demand side of the equation. Fact is, demand for 3B is low right now, probably one of the reasons the Angels didn't make a QO to Freese.

 

I'm with you, put Plouffe's name out there, but if the offers match the speculation thus far (Bedrosian, etc.), we have to pass.  Just sign that potentially very good reliever for 2-3 years for $10-$15 mil on the FA market.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Again, though, the market isn't just the guys available.  You're forgetting the demand side of the equation. Fact is, demand for 3B is low right now, probably one of the reasons the Angels didn't make a QO to Freese.

 

I'm with you, put Plouffe's name out there, but if the offers match the speculation thus far (Bedrosian, etc.), we have to pass.  Just sign that potentially very good reliever for 2-3 years for $10-$15 mil on the FA market.

True... But some people are underrating Plouffe around here. 6 WAR over two seasons isn't a "meh" player. That's a damned fine starter. He won't make any ASG but he's the type of complementary player teams love to pencil into the lineup.

 

This is one of the few situations where I have nearly 100% certainty Ryan will do the right thing. If he's good at just one thing, it's saying "no" to a bad trade. He gets value for the players he trades. Whether that value pans out in the long run is another story entirely but on paper, his trades are always solid.

[kab21]

There is one reason that Plouffe could have more trade value at the ASB (or next offseason).

 

This is a strange offseason where 3B is really, really deep and most contending teams are set at the position.  The key to his trade value is a contending team really needing him.  If a team loses their 3Bman (to injury) in June/July and are playing Matt Macri for any length of time then they are going put an offer out there that is better than any of this mediocrity that we have read about.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here's a little math for the conversation. Data from FanGraphs.

 

Plouffe:

• Has been estimated by MLBTR to cost 2yr/$18M. Freese estimated at 3yr/$33M.
• Has outperformed Freese the last two years (6.1 to 4.3 fWAR).
• Is 3 years younger than Freese.

With 3 years of Freese and 2 years of Plouffe, assume total WAR will be similar. That means the difference is $15M. If you believe aging curves, Plouffe's relative value increases. (If you don't believe in WAR or WAR dollar value, I'm sympathetic.)

 

Plouffe should be worth about $15M of baseball player value compared to Freese. That would be a good reliever under team control for a few years. At a minimum. I would want an additional prospect as well.

Actually, MLBTR predicted Freese would get 3/30, not 3/33, and only noted the third year as "possible" so it's likely he has to field two year offers as well.

 

And a lot of that WAR difference is playing time -- Plouffe has ~25% more PA the last two years.  Obviously health matters, but there isn't any strong evidence that Freese is breaking down yet (his missed time last year was due to a fractured finger after a HBP, from which he returned to post a 142 wRC+ over the season's final month).

 

Prorated to Plouffe's PA the last 2 years, Freese would be within 0.4 fWAR per season of Plouffe, well within a rounding error in the WAR calculation.  And even that small difference is entirely in defense, which again is important but how much might a team's internal valuation differ from UZR?

 

And even at 33 years old, Freese might still have more offensive upside than Plouffe at 30.  Freese's 110 wRC+ last year is almost a match for Plouffe's career high of 112 set two years ago; indeed, Freese's career 115 wRC+ is still higher than Plouffe's single season high.

 

If I had to choose between the two, I would take Plouffe due to age and defense, but they are close enough in performance and contract that I almost certainly would not surrender much in talent or prospects to get Plouffe instead of Freese.

[Winston Smith]

I think that the Astros are a good fit for Plouffe. He seems like the kind of player they like. I don't think you'd get Appel for him but they do have a lot of good pitching prospects that could work if that's how Terry wants to go. Better prospects than the Angels.

[tobi0040]

 

Here:   Ranking of 2015 third basemen by fWAR.  x marks the spot.  Check who is a couple ticks below him with only about half Plouffe's PAs...   Value?  Sure.  To those teams other than the ones that have a third baseman with more value than him.  Will the Yankees give up Betances for him?  I doubt it.

 

 

If you expand that to qualified 3B the last two years he moves up.  Qualified should  not have cut out too many players, a guy with 607 PA was on the list.  Bryant was on it with 650.

 

He was 11th in WAR (6.1)

 

11th in slugging (not a tally stat)

 

13th in wRC+ (not a tally stat)

 

In 2014, Plouffe would have been 3rd in WAR on the Royals and 3rd on the Giants among position players (WS teams)

 

In 2015, Plouffe would have been 3rd in WAR on the Mets and 5th on the Royals among position players (WS teams)

 

Seems to me he has been a guy that has value.  About the definition of one of the better players on a championship caliber team. 

 

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

There is one reason that Plouffe could have more trade value at the ASB (or next offseason).

 

This is a strange offseason where 3B is really, really deep and most contending teams are set at the position.  The key to his trade value is a contending team really needing him.  If a team loses their 3Bman (to injury) in June/July and are playing Matt Macri for any length of time then they are going put an offer out there that is better than any of this mediocrity that we have read about.

That would be a ridiculous reason not to shop him during the offseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is one reason that Plouffe could have more trade value at the ASB (or next offseason).

 

This is a strange offseason where 3B is really, really deep and most contending teams are set at the position.  The key to his trade value is a contending team really needing him.  If a team loses their 3Bman (to injury) in June/July and are playing Matt Macri for any length of time then they are going put an offer out there that is better than any of this mediocrity that we have read about.

True, although Plouffe's profile as a competent but low-upside player suggests he may not be the best or even only option midseason, especially in the short term.  Plenty of utility guys like Nunez, very cheap veterans like Uribe, and sometimes even more marginal players like Brian Buscher can and do provide that level of performance over the short term.

 

And even if a team doesn't come up with a short-term replacement, they still might just rather hope and wait for their starter to return, like David Wright for the Mets last year, rather than surrender much talent for Plouffe without a longer term plan to utilize him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you expand that to qualified 3B the last two years he moves up.  Qualified should  not have cut out too many players, a guy with 607 PA was on the list.  Bryant was on it with 650.

 

He was 11th in WAR (6.1)

 

11th in slugging (not a tally stat)

 

13th in wRC+ (not a tally stat)

Fangraphs "qualified" filter doesn't work well over multiple seasons.  Players have to qualify each of their seasons to make that list.  Bryant makes it because he qualified in 2015 but didn't play in 2014, Dominguez makes it because he qualified in 2014 but didn't play at all in 2015.

 

But Freese doesn't qualify despite 980 PA over the two years because he fell 30 PA short in 2015.  Others that don't qualify for that list, but have more PA than Bryant include Turner, Harrison, Uribe, Duffy, Wright, etc.