The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[Reider]

 

What I was saying was the talent level on this team shouldn't have given us 83 wins (glad it did though, it was nice) and Ryan isn't the type of GM that is going to add significant players to raise that talent level a good chunk for that to change.  If our talent level last year was an 83 win team, then that would be different, I would be right there with you, but we were barely average in a couple areas and below average-horrible in others .

 

That doesn't scream 83 win team.  And it's not like the majority of this team unperformed where we'd expect bounce-back seasons.  Most were in-line with what they've done most of their career (or the last few years), so it's not like we should have had 83 wins and we had a bunch of horrible performances in relation to career norms.

 

As far as not knowing how any hitters area going to perform, you are right.  Thing is though, we do know that maintaining a BABIP over .350 over a career is practically impossible, which is what pushed Murphy's OPS into the whopping .730 area.  Even Miggy Cabrera doesn't have a career .350ish BABIP.

 

Considering the Twins far exceeded my expectations, I have to agree with your points. Perhaps they just so happened to win more games than they should have last year. But there's also another way to look at it. What if Perkins, Hunter, and home run wise Dozier didn't slump in the second half? The Twins could have really exceeded expectations way beyond anyone's imagination. All I mean by that is, they arguably could have earned a wild card spot, not that they would have done much with it.

 

Yes, good point on BABIP affecting his OPS considering we know that he's not going to hit a lot of home runs or hit for a lot of power in general. I'm just going to take the wait and see approach on Murphy. I haven't really seen much of him and he hasn't played a single game for the Twins yet. There are players out there with excellent or well rounded skill sets that don't meet expectations for whatever reason, then there's guys with less than excellent skill sets who embrace the challenge and end up being solid players. Lets hope Murphy is the latter.

[h2oface]

 

Truly aggressive? What does that even mean?  If signing the homerun champ  out the KBO doesn't qualify, nothing will meet your silly standard.   

 

 

Is Park signed? I can't find that confirmed anywhere.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Signing an ace or impact bat (or trading for one) even once would be showing aggressiveness. I said I liked the Pak signing, but let's pump the breaks for a minute, his 12 mil posting fee is extremely small when you compare to past posting fees paid for premium players.

Signing Chris Davis would be an aggressive move,signing Cueto would be an aggressive move, hell even signing Cruz last year would have been an aggressive move, signing Pak is a good move but no where near what they could do. Ditto with Santana, nolasco, etc
The last 17 seasons with Ryan at the helm has shown us very little in results, how about for once we try to bring in a game changer type player?

So basically TR either has to spend more than 100 million on a free agent or trade for an MVP-caliber or Cy Young-caliber player.  Gotcha.  That's not a measure of 'aggressiveness,' that's measure of how much the owners are willing to spend, and how much the team can actually rake in.  

 

There's plenty of aggressive, smart baseball moves between "settling for mediocrity" and "bringing in a game changer."   I think you're framing the argument a bit disingenuously by creating that false choice.  

[PseudoSABR]

 

Is Park signed? I can't find that confirmed anywhere.

No he hasn't signed yet.  I misspoke.

[sane]

that's not an aggressive move, that is basically a league average FA contract for a guy who is a mid rotation guy.

League average FA contract?

Check this link.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2014/type/dollars/position/p

[sane]

Check 2013 for Nolasco (3rd highest) and Hughes (7th highest).

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2013/type/dollars/position/p

[sane]

There are now 12 FA outfielders available in the top 50 FA's available.

 

There is ONE FA catcher available in the top 50 FA's available. (Geovany Soto)

 

Is it easier to replace Hicks or Murphy?

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/ranked/position/of

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/ranked/position/c

[bird]

 

I think it's possible for people to believe in intangibles and still balk at the idea that one person should get credit for a team winning perhaps double-digit more games than they should because of them.  This shouldn't be too hard to understand.

 

All things people equal, I'd rather have Hunter than AJ due to intangibles.  I don't think it's a 12 win difference though.  

 

 

I have yet to find a single person, ever, who has credited Hunter for the Twins winning double-digit more games. Have you? 

[bird]

 

Is Park signed? I can't find that confirmed anywhere.

 

 

So, the second Park is signed, you'll agree it was an aggressive move to outbid everyone for his services?

[DaveW]

Check 2013 for Nolasco (3rd highest) and Hughes (7th highest).

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2013/type/dollars/position/p

So basically you are making a point of mine for me, nolasco being the third highest FA pitcher signing is hilarious. Don't waste money on late rotation guys like nolasco!

 

Also that was only pitchers, overall nolasco was 9th most overall (aka not an impact signing to begin with)

[DaveW]

So, the second Park is signed, you'll agree it was an aggressive move to outbid everyone for his services?

Spending 12 million to outbid "everyone" goes in the semi aggressive range. 12 million for a bid isn't much at all when you compare to most of the top Asian and Cuban players

[jimmer]

 

I have yet to find a single person, ever, who has credited Hunter for the Twins winning double-digit more games. Have you? 

No, it was an exaggeration to make a point but you know what I have read/heard?  That for most of the year the team was mostly the same as last year but what changed was getting Hunter's leadership, him showing the team how to win, and him loosening things up and that caused them to win a lot more than they did.  Did the people who said things like that actually come out and put a number of games on it, no?  But that's a roundabout way of saying his presence was the reason we won way more than we should have.

 

And my point is, I don't doubt it helped.  I just don't know how much.  I'm not sure anyone does. Which was my point.  If we had won a couple more than our production told us, that's one thing.  But, IMO, we won quite a bit more than we should have and I believe it had much more to do with advantageous sequencing.

[prouster]

 

Even Miggy Cabrera doesn't have a career .350ish BABIP.

 

 

Well, if .348 doesn't count as ".350ish," then I'm not sure what does. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1744&position=1B/3B

[jimmer]

 

Well, if .348 doesn't count as ".350ish," then I'm not sure what does. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1744&position=1B/3B

I suppose you would have preferred .350+.  The point is the same.  Only 5 players in the history of game have had a career BABIP of .357 or higher.  Miggy Cabrera's career BABIP is 9 points below it and he's considered one of the best, if not the best, pure hitter in this generation.  Murphy's .357 BABIP, which pushed his whopping .730 something OPS, is unsustainable.  When it goes down around league average or lower, something one would expect from a projected backup catcher, we'll see how it affects his OPS.

[sploorp]

 

And that's why the Twins should have given Hicks and Arcia a chance to platoon in right field. There's no reason not to try a platoon like that for a couple months, especially given the four months Danny Santana got.

That's actually an interesting idea.  A moot point now, but I would have been interested to see how something like that worked out.

[Major League Ready]

I think there is a very basic parameter being ignored here by some posters.  The Twins are a roughly average income team.  Average income families don’t drive a 7 series BMV and they don’t live in multi-million dollar homes.   Why is so hard to understand the teams with more money are going to have an enormous advantage in signing the elite free agents.  There is also a matter of the appeal of the big stage larger markets provide and of course, preferential weather conditions. 

 

The Dodger spent around $100M last year on players who were on another team’s roster.  That happens to be fairly close to the amount of incremental revenue they had over the Twins but that’s not really the point.  Take the aggregate difference in revenue amongst the top 10 teams and we are talking about  $1.11B in 2014.  That is basically the available pool of money for those teams to spend after they have spent an equivalent amount to the Twins.     

Another point that should be made here is that it is an exceeding bad idea to employ the same roster building tactics as teams with 50, 100, even $200M more in revenue, especially where free agency is concerned.  Mid and small market fans complaining about their team not signing elite free agents are really complaining that there team refuses to engage in really bad management practices. 

 

Both World Series teams were primarily built from within.  The largest FA contract was Granderson at 4/60 and most of the other FAs are the exact type of signings the OP is admonishing.  Neither team spent the kind of money the Twins have on FAs.  Both teams have players from international signings and the Mets have done particularly well.  There are no $4M bonus babies.  There is one Kepler type signing amongst the two teams.  The most impactful trades for both teams was trading established players for prospects as opposed to the opposite as several posters have suggested here.  The Royals got Cain and Escobar for Grienke and the Mets got Syndergaard and D’Arnaud for Dickey

BTW ... The Twin’s revenue was a little over $30M below average last year and $20M less than the median revenue.

[DaveW]

 

 

BTW ... The Twin’s revenue was a little over $30M below average last year and $20M less than the median revenue.

Source? I didn't realize the Twins "books" were public knowledge to be honest. I would be interested to see where this number came from.

 

Also, as it has been mentioned, there have been plenty of cases where teams with similar markets and similar payrolls (often times with smaller payrolls) have gone "big" in free agency and landed Ace type or Game Changers in terms of position players:

 

Seattle

Texas

Colorado
San Diego

Miami

 

All come to mind immediately and of course there are many more.

 

 

Nobody has suggested they need to take a Yankees or Dodgers approach and "go sign everybody", so there is no need to bring the Dodgers into this equation at all. Many people have asked for "hey instead of signing a few mid rotation guys for 100+ million, why not take a stab at a true ace?" or "hey instead of signing the Willinghams, Hunters, etc of the world, why not try to bring in a game changer in the OF etc?"

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rather have Cueto or Price, than both Nolasco and Santana (or Hughes and Santana). I think that's the part I most agree with Dave, and disagree with Ryan on.....I'd rather go for the elite FAs, than 2 good or mediocre ones. It is, however, a different approach, not necessarily a wrong approach. I can disagree with Ryan, and acknowledge his approach is different, but not necessarily wrong/bad/evil....

[sane]

I'd rather have Cueto or Price, than both Nolasco and Santana (or Hughes and Santana). I think that's the part I most agree with Dave, and disagree with Ryan on.....I'd rather go for the elite FAs, than 2 good or mediocre ones. It is, however, a different approach, not necessarily a wrong approach. I can disagree with Ryan, and acknowledge his approach is different, but not necessarily wrong/bad/evil....

Ryan probably went for quantity over quality when his rotation was Cole DeVries, Liam Hendriks, Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Pedro Hernandez. Cueto's bandage could not have covered that wound.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ryan probably went for quantity over quality when his rotation was Cole DeVries, Liam Hendriks, Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Pedro Hernandez. Cueto's bandage could not have covered that wound.

 

And it didn't matter the previous 4 years....signing an Ace 2 years ago might (maybe) be helping them last year and this coming year.....like I said, it is a different approach. Had they one less FA pitcher last year, maybe Berrios and Duffey are both up.....

[ashbury]

Source? I didn't realize the Twins "books" were public knowledge to be honest. I would be interested to see where this number came from.

I don't know MLR's source but I use this:

 

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

 

It says that its numbers are as of last March.

 

From that table, I come up with the Twins being about $15M below median on revenue. So, it's close to whatever he is referring to.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't know MLR's source but I use this:

 

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

 

It says that its numbers are as of last March.

 

From that table, I come up with the Twins being about $15M below median on revenue. So, it's close to whatever he is referring to.

I looked at Forbes and Bloomberg.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-10-23/mlb-team-values.html

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Source? I didn't realize the Twins "books" were public knowledge to be honest. I would be interested to see where this number came from.

 

Also, as it has been mentioned, there have been plenty of cases where teams with similar markets and similar payrolls (often times with smaller payrolls) have gone "big" in free agency and landed Ace type or Game Changers in terms of position players:

 

Seattle

Texas

Colorado

San Diego

Miami

 

All come to mind immediately and of course there are many more.

 

 

Nobody has suggested they need to take a Yankees or Dodgers approach and "go sign everybody", so there is no need to bring the Dodgers into this equation at all. Many people have asked for "hey instead of signing a few mid rotation guys for 100+ million, why not take a stab at a true ace?" or "hey instead of signing the Willinghams, Hunters, etc of the world, why not try to bring in a game changer in the OF etc?"

You keep insisting certain teams have followed the successfully model you prescribe but you refuse to provide specific examples of SPs with the exception of Mike Hamton which was a dozen years ago and it was also more likely an example of why small market teams don’t do these deals.

We can talk about position players as well but that is a somewhat different discussion.

 

In terms of the teams you cited …

 

Texas is usually around 10th in revenue so they are a poor example.

 

Seattle just signed a $2B TV contract so they are hardly a parallel example. I would add that their payroll for the past 5 years was 93.7M and the Twins was 95.4. Not exactly a good example of a team being more willing to spend. I would also add that the Cano deal could very easily be worse than the Mauer contract. His performance declined substantially last year at age 32 and he has 8 more years to go. It could just be a down year but if this is the start of ascending performance, this deal is an enormous bust.

 

San Diego ranks 26th in payroll over the past 5 years and past 10 years. What Ace SP did they sign? If you are talking about Shields, we have a very different idea of what James Shileds is at this point in his career.

 

Colorado ranks directly behind the Twins in terms of payroll over the past 10 years. Hampton only hurts your case. They did sign Larry Walker 20 years ago. I hope you have a better example of why Colorado should be held up as an example today.

Miami – Signed a bunch of guys when they got a new stadium and promptly rolled them the next year when it failed horribly. Is this the model you want to follow?

 

If you are going to be as insistent as you have that acquiring an Ace is easy and practiced by teams with similar revenue, show us some meaningful examples. Preferably in the past 5 or 6 years as the economics has changed.

[sportsdiamond]

Aaron Hicks = Sell high...... do not trust what he did for 3 months 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Aaron Hicks = Sell high...... do not trust what he did for 3 months 

 

I agree on the selling point being right, not sure on the return yet.

 

Going to let that play out a bit.  I don't think it's automatically a fail like many seem to here.

[jimmer]

 

Aaron Hicks = Sell high...... do not trust what he did for 3 months 

Should we trust the 172 PAs Murphy had last year with his .357 BABIP which garnered him a OPS in the .730s?

[DaveW]

You keep insisting certain teams have followed the successfully model you prescribe but you refuse to provide specific examples of SPs with the exception of Mike Hamton which was a dozen years ago and it was also more likely an example of why small market teams don’t do these deals.

We can talk about position players as well but that is a somewhat different discussion.

 

In terms of the teams you cited …

 

Texas is usually around 10th in revenue so they are a poor example.

 

Seattle just signed a $2B TV contract so they are hardly a parallel example. I would add that their payroll for the past 5 years was 93.7M and the Twins was 95.4. Not exactly a good example of a team being more willing to spend. I would also add that the Cano deal could very easily be worse than the Mauer contract. His performance declined substantially last year at age 32 and he has 8 more years to go. It could just be a down year but if this is the start of ascending performance, this deal is an enormous bust.

 

San Diego ranks 26th in payroll over the past 5 years and past 10 years. What Ace SP did they sign? If you are talking about Shields, we have a very different idea of what James Shileds is at this point in his career.

 

Colorado ranks directly behind the Twins in terms of payroll over the past 10 years. Hampton only hurts your case. They did sign Larry Walker 20 years ago. I hope you have a better example of why Colorado should be held up as an example today.

Miami – Signed a bunch of guys when they got a new stadium and promptly rolled them the next year when it failed horribly. Is this the model you want to follow?

 

If you are going to be as insistent as you have that acquiring an Ace is easy and practiced by teams with similar revenue, show us some meaningful examples. Preferably in the past 5 or 6 years as the economics has changed.

Toronto is behind the Twins and have handed out big contracts, Cinci is behind the Twins and have handed out big contracts.

 

I never said every deal those teams did was great, I said that those teams that are similar to the Twins have gone out and signed top free agents, in some cases, multiple times.

 

Last I checked, the Twins current model hasn't worked for them anytime in the last 20 years, perhaps it's time to try to make an aggressive move for once? Bring in an ace for once? Bring in a game changer true top position player at once? What is the worst that can happen? A bad contract and no World Series berths for 6-7 years?

[DaveW]

DaveW man your getting way to bent out of shape shipping Hicks for Murphy. The Twins were so desperate for catching, any catching that possibly had a pulse, and a chance to throw out runners and hit some that they sacrificed an asset in Aaron Hicks to get Murphy. You know your team and organization is desperate for catching when you see them do a one for one swap on a player they had invested so much time and energy in developing.

 

TR and the front office saw centerfield and the outfield position as an organizational strength where they had some surplus, what they clearly saw is behind Suzuki in the organization there is zero, nothing, major league ready catching(meaning likely 3 or more years away). I like Hicks too and wasn't excited to see him go, but I like the upside of Byron Buxton and feel he has a large chance of stepping up and improving his hitting this year. Hopefully they don't have to toss Buxton to the wolves as much as they did Hicks by trying to bat him lead-off.

In this instance I think the Twins had to rob Peter to pay Paul some. Maybe they roll the dice and get lucky on Murphy having some power and some ability to throw out runners, until he gets more at bats and opportunity we just don't know. What we do no is playing Suzuki 130 plus games a season doesn't help the Twins win more baseball games.

I'm sure Suzuki is a competitive guy and will try and play more or the same, what Murphy gives the Twins is at least someone with a chance to hit and fill in. They had no alternatives to Suzuki last year and the catching spot and over exposure of Suzuki at the plate hurt the team in the stretch drive.

In this instance I am glad they went and got a catcher and hope the Murphy guy works out better than some of the past trades of CF players. Some times you just have to roll the dice and gamble that the asset you got back will be better than the one you gave up. I'm one that usually criticizes TR for lack of vision or gambling, combine that with the risk on PARK the Korean 1st basemen and this Murphy move and I am OK with this gamble. To me he is putting his judgement and reputation on the line a bit, and I like that. That and I don't think the Twins sign Robinson again, they have Danny Santana to play back up outfield, he is out of options and they are not just going to give him away on waivers.

Showing that Danny Santana is our plan B (or gulp plan A) at CF to start the season isn't a good selling point IMO.

 

You think the Twins would have learned about unsustainable BABIp from Santana, but it appears they didn't when they targeted JR

[DaveW]

Aaron Hicks = Sell high...... do not trust what he did for 3 months

selling high would have been at the trade deadline

[sane]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/157300922/the-4-players-who-will-be-free-agent-bargains

 

"The-4-players-who-will-be-free-agent-bargains" by mlb.com