Meyer? Meyer! A Rewind on Meyer

[DocBauer]

So about a year ago, Alex Meyer was just about the hottest topic here at TD. And not surprisingly so. When you are a highly talented athlete with a high ceiling and the ability to potentially erase the single greatest recent blemish on your team...a front line starting pitcher...there is a certain amount of pressure, attention and expectation. With the surprising success and competition of the 2015 season, and all the talent that appeared and prevailed, and a few prospects who teased mightily for the near future, Meyer's struggles in 2015 got pushed to the side somewhat. Now that our hearts, minds, hopes and fantasies have turned to 2016...and Seth has begun to post his/the initial prospect list...Meyer is suddenly coming to the forefront again.

 

A review of Meyer's milb career thus far. *2012 and 2013 are combined numbers between two levels.

 

Season W-L. ERA. G. GS IP. H. BB. SO. WHIP. Avg

2012. 10-6. 2.86. 25. 25. 129. 97. 45. 139. 1.10. .211

2013. 4-3. 2.99. 16. 16. 78.1. 67. 32. 100. 1.26. .227

2014. 7-7. 3.52. 27. 27. 130. 116. 64. 153. 1.38. .241

2015. 4-5. 4.79. 38. 8. 92. 101. 48. 100. 1.62. .281

 

First, a few observations. Some want to argue Meyer's age as if he already has streaks of maturity in his temple and white in his unshaven beard. He will turn an ancient 26 on Jan 3rd and has been around for a whopping 4 YEARS in the minors. Hello AARP! I'm sorry, I just don't get wrapped up in things like age all that much. It would be awesome if every prospect hit by 22 and had 12-14 great years. It just doesn't always work that way. But it is true that in 2015 Meyer exceeded HITS vs IP for the first time, had a WHIP above 1.38 and a BA above .241.

 

A pessimist would tell you that Meyer's "poor" numbers increased each and every year. And they would point out a rather severe loss of control in 2015 with his second year in AAA, and that is not supposed to happen.

 

An optimist would tell you that numbers fluctuate as you climb the ladder and face better and better competition. He would also point out less H per IP and big SO numbers that were borderline 3-1 his first three years. Not to mention just pure stuff and ability. Baseball America ranked him 59, 45 and 62 in '12, '13 and '14.

 

This is not Scott Klingenbeck. (comparison; no insult intended)

 

Meyer, if I recall properly, came in to ST just after his grandfather passed. Did he battle emotional demons that perpetuated as things didn't go well? Was it just a cursed season? Have the Twins blown the coaching and support side of a talent like Meyer? Does he simply need a fresh new season to begin? Has the one poor season tarnished or exposed something to make him a reliever, even a potentially great one?

 

Kind of a hot button/topic here again. Who is Alex Meyer to you? What do you see? Different influences just delayed him and created a bad season? Is he destined for a relief role?

 

Your opinion please...on Alex...and what you see...and maybe what you would do...going forward now.

[DaveW]

I will be happy if he becomes even an average bullpen arm at this point, disappointing prospect overall thus far. Twins needed him to become a front end of the rotation type, now we are hoping he can be a bullpen arm.

 

Looking back on the Span for Meyer trade, the Nationals got the far better end of that deal thus far.

[h2oface]

 

Looking back on the Span for Meyer trade, the Nationals got the far better end of that deal thus far.

 

If one is keeping score......... what is it?  3 years to none? Alex has a ways to go to even get even now. 

It could happen, though. I sure hope he finds it. I hope he gets the opportunity to pitch in the show.

[AlwaysinModeration]

My opinion if Alex Meyer is that...I'm suspicious that he won't get a chance to establish himself as a starting pitcher until it is for another team.

[nytwinsfan]

From the time Meyer went into relief on May 25, he had the following stats:

 

K/9: 10.08

BB/9: 4.10

HR/9: 0.34

Avg. .244

WHIP: 1.41

ERA: 3.08

FIP: 2.95

With the exception of the BB/9 (which is also driving up the WHIP), those are very solid numbers. If he can get the walks down to 2.5 or even 3 per 9 innings, he can still be a very valuable relief pitcher. Getting the walks down is still the big issue.

 

[jimmer]

 

My opinion if Alex Meyer is that...I'm suspicious that he won't get a chance to establish himself as a starting pitcher until it is for another team.

And by then, he might very well be labeled as an RP and he'll be in his 30s if he stays with us his whole team controlled time.  Kind of like what is likely to happen with May.

[Linus]

He should try the yoga routine May did last off season. The improvement in his control was remarkable.

[DaveW]

From the time Meyer went into relief on May 25, he had the following stats:

 

K/9: 10.08

BB/9: 4.10

HR/9: 0.34

Avg. .244

WHIP: 1.41

ERA: 3.08

FIP: 2.95

With the exception of the BB/9 (which is also driving up the WHIP), those are very solid numbers. If he can get the walks down to 2.5 or even 3 per 9 innings, he can still be a very valuable relief pitcher. Getting the walks down is still the big issue.

that's the problem thoUgh, cutting down walks is the toughest part.

[HitInAPinch]

Meyer's fall was so fast, so ugly, that I gotta think there were internal and external things causing them.  I would have given thought to moving him down to AA to build his confidence instead of demoting him to the bullpen.

 

Doc:  you're right about the grandfather.  It happened at the beginning of ST.  Pioneer Press article is dated 3/1/2015.

 

"If it wasn't for him, I wouldn't have a locker in this locker room," the Twins right-hander said. "I'm certain of that."

 

He's had time to clear his head and work out a few kinks in the bullpen.  Back to the starting rotation young man!

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_27620858/twins-pitcher-alex-meyer-remembers-his-late-grandfather

[Shane Wahl]

 

He should try the yoga routine May did last off season. The improvement in his control was remarkable.

 

Wait, I don't remember this. Really? I don't understand how professional athletes aren't ordered to do yoga by their teams.

[Dantes929]

 

 

I will be happy if he becomes even an average bullpen arm at this point, disappointing prospect overall thus far. Twins needed him to become a front end of the rotation type, now we are hoping he can be a bullpen arm.

 

Looking back on the Span for Meyer trade, the Nationals got the far better end of that deal thus far.

Of course the Nats got the better end of the deal thus far but I for one thought it was a good trade at the time so am not going to criticize it now.   If he never makes it to the Bigs at all I will not criticize it.   I will not be happy if he becomes an average bullpen arm.    Either something will click or it won't but on him I would take the gamble that it will.    Do not trade him the next two years for sure because it would be the definition of selling low.

[Dantes929]

 

And by then, he might very well be labeled as an RP and he'll be in his 30s if he stays with us his whole team controlled time.  Kind of like what is likely to happen with May.

I really hope you are wrong.  I was as high on May as I was on Meyer and don't see why May wasn't considered to have nearly as high a ceiling.   Pretty good heat along with a good change and curveball.  I think his command has been what has separated him into higher end potential  I still think a full season of May will beat a full season of Duffey but really, really want them both to get every chance possible.   While I think May has shown he can be that kind of starter I also think he has shown he can be more than average out of the bullpen which isn't all bad either.

[Seth Stohs]

I talked to Alex at spring training. He had just returned from his grandfather's funeral. He struggled with that, but there were a couple of other things going on at the time that he told me about that also affected him and his fiance (They are getting married one of these next few weekends, I believe.) It was a tough year, and I do think he will take well to the bullpen. I do think he needs  a fresh start, a new season.

 

Giving up on his potential and talent would be silly. The stuff is all there. The control, if he can get that BB/9 under four, even just a little bit, he can be terrific. 

 

Like Doc, Age just doesn't matter to me in this situation. As others have said, sure, it'd be nice if everyone came up at 22, but that's not the way it is. Few do. He's working on things, and I think he'll get there. I think he'll be very good. 

 

And, frankly, the Span deal is done and over. I don't like comparing that because the two were at very different points in their career and there is risk in any trade.

[Mike Sixel]

Who EVER says give up? Why do people keep saying that kind of thing?

 

Age doesn't matter? So if he was 30 and not in the majors, that wouldn't indicate anything? Don't buy it.

[Thrylos]

2 numbers about Meyer's 2015 that are missing in the list: 

 

.378 BABIP and 3.28 FIP < 3.66 FIP of 2014.

 

K% dropped a tick (27% to 24%) but BB% was the same (13.1% vs 13.5%)

 

Consider me not concerned.  Amused by the fact hat some people give Buxton a Mulligan for 2015 because of "potential" while the root of his problems is inability to hit a breaking ball (which is a defect) but not doing so for Meyer whose bad 2015 driver was a high BABIP (which is not a defect.)  

 

Highest potential than any pitcher in the organization (haven't seen Jay pitch), I hope he gains a rotation spot with the Twins this Spring.

[nytwinsfan]

 

that's the problem thoUgh, cutting down walks is the toughest part.

Fair enough.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I talked to Alex at spring training. He had just returned from his grandfather's funeral. He struggled with that, but there were a couple of other things going on at the time that he told me about that also affected him and his fiance (They are getting married one of these next few weekends, I believe.) It was a tough year, and I do think he will take well to the bullpen. I do think he needs  a fresh start, a new season.

 

Giving up on his potential and talent would be silly. The stuff is all there. The control, if he can get that BB/9 under four, even just a little bit, he can be terrific. 

 

Like Doc, Age just doesn't matter to me in this situation. As others have said, sure, it'd be nice if everyone came up at 22, but that's not the way it is. Few do. He's working on things, and I think he'll get there. I think he'll be very good. 

 

And, frankly, the Span deal is done and over. I don't like comparing that because the two were at very different points in their career and there is risk in any trade.

Completely agree. Very good chance he is going to be a contributor in the next few seasons.

[DaveW]

 

Who EVER says give up? Why do people keep saying that kind of thing?

Age doesn't matter? So if he was 30 and not in the majors, that wouldn't indicate anything? Don't buy it.

Yeah, I haven't seen one person say "give up"

 

I just think its been disappointing since we needed him to be a front of the rotation type, not a bullpen arm. If he can pitch like an elite bullpen arm then it softens the blow.

[twinssouth]

Tough crowd here.  The guy had a bad year and off to the bullpen.  And Seth, you keep bringing up bullpen like it's a done deal.  He's too good to be written off this quick.  My guess is the Twins were pounding him on the walks which led to grooving the fb.  Last year they just wanted him to get thru the season healthy, limiting his innings pitch per game.  This year it's his mechanics.  Why not give the guy a mulligan and see how he does next year.  If he still has problems, then send him to the bullpen.  He's got starter stuff.  Look at the Mets; 4 young power pitchers, something the Twins sorely need. 

 

I saw Seth's ranking on a separate thread on where Meyer's at, somewhere around l3 and saying basically we have a good late inning power arm rp. Well I don't agree with that and if I did, I sure has heck would have had him higher than Burdi which I haven't seen so far in the rankings, thus assuming he's somewhere higher than Meyer.

 

 

[Steve Lein]

Meyer to me, still has the two best pitches in the entire organization, so it's ridiculous to write him off.

 

I still think he's the type where if he's on, he'll dominate, and if he's off, who knows what will happen. Frankly, i like that type of guy in a rotation for this team because it's such a difference to what everyone else brings. Will throw teams off a lot of the time.

 

If he ends up as a reliever, I am not at all concerned about the elevated walk rate. There are endless examples of high walk relievers who also carry high strikeout rates, that are incredibly effective out of the bullpen.

 

Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Trevor Rosenthal, Craig Kimbrel, Will Smith, Kevin Seigrist, etc... and Meyer's stuff will play up even more in the 'pen.

[twinssouth]

Meyer to me, still has the two best pitches in the entire organization, so it's ridiculous to write him off.

 

 

 

 

 

Couldn't agree with you more.  That fb/slider combination is lethal

[jokin]

 

Tough crowd here.  The guy had a bad year and off to the bullpen.  And Seth, you keep bringing up bullpen like it's a done deal.  He's too good to be written off this quick.                                                                                   My guess is the Twins were pounding him on the walks which led to grooving the fb.  Last year they just wanted him to get thru the season healthy, limiting his innings pitch per game.  This year it's his mechanics.  Why not give the guy a mulligan and see how he does next year.  If he still has problems, then send him to the bullpen.  He's got starter stuff.  Look at the Mets; 4 young power pitchers, something the Twins sorely need. 

 

I saw Seth's ranking on a separate thread on where Meyer's at, somewhere around l3 and saying basically we have a good late inning power arm rp. Well I don't agree with that and if I did, I sure has heck would have had him higher than Burdi which I haven't seen so far in the rankings, thus assuming he's somewhere higher than Meyer.

 

Great post.  Great stuff. Yeah... I let Seth have it on his 11-15 ranking thread- if he truly believes what he says (and I have no reason not to think that is the case), Meyer's fall from the top of the national prospect lists- and now going from potential Ace to 3rd best Twins' relief pitching prospect- is a complete disaster (and maybe only 4th best is Jay ends up working out as yet another relief pitcher in the Twins Top 10). Which is why I don't get the disconnect that if this does play out in the way he envisions that it's all no big deal.  It is a big deal- it would mean that the trade for Span was one of the most one-sided in Twins history.

 

I for one, don't believe that this is how it will all work out.  But as another poster said upthread, and as I've mentioned in the past, I fear that Meyer will end up reaching his full potential as a starter with another organization.

[brvama]

I honestly believe that with his talent level the Twins will have Meyer starting next year. And even at 26 he still has the "potential" to have 12-14 years in the majors. And the BP was just a short term assignment to help iron things out. My gut tells me that Alex will turn it up next year and see time on the Twins the last half. I think a new year will do wonders for the kid.

[jokin]

 

Meyer to me, still has the two best pitches in the entire organization, so it's ridiculous to write him off.

 

 

 

 

 

Couldn't agree with you more.  That fb/slider combination is lethal

 

Amen. Just a more consistent, average 3rd pitch like a change and you have the makings of an Ace-level performer.  When I saw him a year ago in August, he dominated Louisville and was throwing what looked like a 3-finger change-up in the 70s.  It was clearly a work in progress, but when he could get it near the plate (and not tip the pitch), very effective.

[Vanimal46]

 

I honestly believe that with his talent level the Twins will have Meyer starting next year. And even at 26 he still has the "potential" to have 12-14 years in the majors. And the BP was just a short term assignment to help iron things out. My gut tells me that Alex will turn it up next year and see time on the Twins the last half. I think a new year will do wonders for the kid.

 

12-14 years? Let's see if he can get to the majors first before we talk about him pitching until he's 40.....

[brvama]

12-14 years? Let's see if he can get to the majors first before we talk about him pitching until he's 40.....

I said he has the "potential" to pitch another 12-14 yrs. That is basically in response to all those who feel he's getting too old or close to it. Of course, even I know that he has too make it to the majors.

 

My suggestion to all of us when reading these posts is to try understand the meaning and not focus on a short phrase. My wife does that enough.

[twinssouth]

I fear that Meyer will end up reaching his full potential as a starter with another organization

 

 

 

This has been my concern all along.  The Twins will throw him in on some package deal and Meyer's name will show up on the stats sheet of the am paper.  I have to believe lots of clubs would love to have a 6'9" starter throwing 99 with a wipeout slider and the hell with the walks. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I said he has the "potential" to pitch another 12-14 yrs. That is basically in response to all those who feel he's getting too old or close to it. Of course, even I know that he has too make it to the majors.

My suggestion to all of us when reading these posts is to try understand the meaning and not focus on a short phrase. My wife does that enough.

 

I'll do it one more time and say nice line sir. Made me laugh 

[markos]

 

2 numbers about Meyer's 2015 that are missing in the list: 

 

.378 BABIP and 3.28 FIP < 3.66 FIP of 2014.

 

K% dropped a tick (27% to 24%) but BB% was the same (13.1% vs 13.5%)

 

Consider me not concerned.  Amused by the fact hat some people give Buxton a Mulligan for 2015 because of "potential" while the root of his problems is inability to hit a breaking ball (which is a defect) but not doing so for Meyer whose bad 2015 driver was a high BABIP (which is not a defect.)  

 

Highest potential than any pitcher in the organization (haven't seen Jay pitch), I hope he gains a rotation spot with the Twins this Spring.

Meyer's BABIP was high, but this is now three years in a row that his BABIP has been at least .317. Maybe he has been unlucky these past three seasons. Or maybe he has a tendency to groove a lot of hit-able pitches because he lacks command. 

 

Personally, I'm not terribly optimistic about Meyer's chances of being an above-average starter. 

1) He hasn't demonstrated any ability to throw a lot of innings in a season. He has maxed out at 130, and had shoulder issues in both 2013 and 2014. 

2) His release point has dropped A LOT - roughly 12 inches since 2012 - and now his release point is almost a foot lower than Kyle Gibson's and basically the same Tyler Duffey's. For all the talk of Meyer being able to generate extreme "downhill plane" based on his height, that isn't actually true any more.

3) He doesn't get a lot of swinging strikes relative to what his "stuff" indicates he should. Last year at AAA, his swinging-strike rate was 11%, which would put him roughly 70th among MLB relievers. And Berrios had a higher swinging-strike rate. 

 

He may still have the highest potential of any pitcher in the organization, but I think the likelihood that he reaches that potential is very, very low right now. Certainly much lower than when they acquired him. 

[twinssouth]

Meyer's BABIP was high, but this is now three years in a row that his BABIP has been at least .317. Maybe he has been unlucky these past three seasons. Or maybe he has a tendency to groove a lot of hit-able pitches because he lacks command.

 

Personally, I'm not terribly optimistic about Meyer's chances of being an above-average starter.

1) He hasn't demonstrated any ability to throw a lot of innings in a season. He has maxed out at 130, and had shoulder issues in both 2013 and 2014.

2) His release point has dropped A LOT - roughly 12 inches since 2012 - and now his release point is almost a foot lower than Kyle Gibson's and basically the same Tyler Duffey's. For all the talk of Meyer being able to generate extreme "downhill plane" based on his height, that isn't actually true any more.

3) He doesn't get a lot of swinging strikes relative to what his "stuff" indicates he should. Last year at AAA, his swinging-strike rate was 11%, which would put him roughly 70th among MLB relievers. And Berrios had a higher swinging-strike rate.

 

He may still have the highest potential of any pitcher in the organization, but I think the likelihood that he reaches that potential is very, very low right now. Certainly much lower than when they acquired him.

 

 

Well, it's good to know that you agree with us that he has the highest potential but I still believe he deserves another year as starter. If he tanks, then ok, make him the reliever, as he would still be only 27 or so. How old was Wade Davis when converted to reliever (28?)