Hypothetical Who Says No First (very unlikely Hypothetical)

[Loosey]

Let me start by saying the odds of this happening are close 0.000001%.  But were in the off season now and sometimes thoughts like this pop into my head and I wonder if others think about them or if they don't if they think my thoughts are straight up crazy or would actually make sense in world in which people are logical thinkers with no emotional attachments to, people, places, events, things, etc.

 

So here we go:  Joe Mauer has 3 years remaining on his contract at $23M per year or $69M remaining.  Let's say Joe continues the trend he has been on for the last two seasons and performs worse than last year.  If Joe's line next year is along the lines of .255/.320/.360 (.680 OPS) do the Twins offer him a deal to leave the organization?

 

If the Twins are playoff contenders again next year and actually take that next step in spite of Mauer, it might make sense to cut him and make room for a better, younger, cheaper option at first base.

 

I know baseball contracts are guaranteed so if he is cut he still gets paid.  However, deals can be made to make things better.  Sometimes it benefits both sides, sometimes not.

 

Here is where I get to who says no first:

 

Lets say the Twins and Joe's agent discuss him leaving the team after 2016 season with $46M remaining on his contract.  If the Twins said they would pay him $11.5M each of the remaining two years and defer the final $23M for 8 years at which time they will pay him out in installments over a 10 year period + 2% interest on money earned over the 8 year annuity period.  Once payments start interest earning stops (this is most likely too simple but am using it for this hypothetical).  So the interest earned would be $3.95M we'll round up to $4.0M. So beginning in 2027 the Twins would begin paying out Joe's annual installment payment of $2.7 million dollars through 2038.

 

Assuming Joe signs with another club in 2017 this may make sense for him as an overall investment depending on what he receives.  For the Twins they only spend an additional $4 million dollars spread out over 18 years. 

 

So who says no first - My guess is Mauer would, or would counter with a Bobby Bonilla sized settlement.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Mauer, there is no good reason for him to defer money right now.

[RealTwinsFan357]

The twins say no first if this is mauer's idea, mauer says no first if this is the front office's idea...it makes no sense for mauer to restructure his contract, even for more money in the long run. He is guaranteed a lot of money over the next couple years and nothing will change that. On the other hand, deferment of a contract is (almost) always a bad idea...let future payroll space be for future teams.

[Linus]

Why did I get a funny feeling this was going to be about Mauer.

[Vanimal46]

If I were Mauer I would take that deal in a heart beat. Bobby Bonilla has the greatest gig in America. Literally all he has to do is be alive and he makes $1 million a year from the Mets. Could you imagine the resentment Joe would get from fans if there was a Joe Mauer pay day similar to Bobby Bonilla?

We just have to swallow this pill for 3 more years....ugh.... then it will finally be over.  

[Loosey]

 

Why did I get a funny feeling this was going to be about Mauer.

At least I didn't hypothetically move him back to catcher. . . .

[Linus]

At least I didn't hypothetically move him back to catcher. . . .

True enough or convince him to waive his no trade clause.....

[Loosey]

 

The twins say no first if this is mauer's idea, mauer says no first if this is the front office's idea...it makes no sense for mauer to restructure his contract, even for more money in the long run. He is guaranteed a lot of money over the next couple years and nothing will change that. On the other hand, deferment of a contract is (almost) always a bad idea...let future payroll space be for future teams.

The future payroll part is sort of moot in the grand scheme of things.  If Joe Mauer has ever heard of time value of money he most likely would say no.  To the team $4M of extra money 20 years into the future is a drop in the bucket + they would likely earn far more than 2% on the deferred money over the 18 years.  It clearly benefits the team more, the caveat to me would be what does Mauer get on the open market in the years he was cut and only receiving $11.5M from the team.  If he can get the other half back he does it for sure.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And by the phrase "what offer would Mauer get on the open market," you really mean "what offer would he get from the Twins." I can't see him ever playing for another team. I guess that's why I think reworking his present contract makes all the sense in the world to the fans and both parties. It makes him a lifetime employee.

[RealTwinsFan357]

The future payroll part is sort of moot in the grand scheme of things. If Joe Mauer has ever heard of time value of money he most likely would say no. To the team $4M of extra money 20 years into the future is a drop in the bucket + they would likely earn far more than 2% on the deferred money over the 18 years. It clearly benefits the team more, the caveat to me would be what does Mauer get on the open market in the years he was cut and only receiving $11.5M from the team. If he can get the other half back he does it for sure.

I disagree that the payroll issue is moot. Some posters, for example, think Eduardo Nunez is going to be too expensive next year due to arbitration and he will making much less than we would be paying Mauer on an annual basis. I understand you may not share that opinion, but my point is that I don't want the Twins to be unable to sign/extend talent years from now because they are writing an annual check to Mauer. It's easy to say that a couple million per year is no big deal, but for a team consistently below average in payroll, it might be the difference if they are operating near their payroll ceiling at that time.

[dougkoebernick]

It is what it is. 

 

When he signed the contract he was worth the money. He is no longer worth the money. I'm sure that he would love to be worth that money and hopefully he will do a lot of work and research in the off-season and improve on his hitting of the past two years. I think we all want that to happen and I'm sure that the person who wants that to happen the most is Joe.

[nicksaviking]

Only way Joe walks away is if he is too injured to play everyday without discomfort.  That probably won't happen, but off the top of my head, Gil Meche and Ryne Sandburg did it so there is some precedence, though those guys weren't staring the kind of money that Mauer is in the face.

 

They were however making pretty elite money for their day.

 

Of course as suggested the Twins could engage in some covert talks with Mauer and provide some incentives for him to walk away, the problem is that if Mauer isn't receptive to the idea and runs to the players union, the Twins will have a huge union and PR issues on their hands.  So I'd guess nothing of the sort would happen.

[Loosey]

 

Only way Joe walks away is if he is too injured to play everyday without discomfort.  That probably won't happen, but off the top of my head, Gil Meche and Ryne Sandburg did it so there is some precedence, though those guys weren't staring the kind of money that Mauer is in the face.

 

They were however making pretty elite money for their day.

 

Of course as suggested the Twins could engage in some covert talks with Mauer and provide some incentives for him to walk away, the problem is that if Mauer isn't receptive to the idea and runs to the players union, the Twins will have a huge union and PR issues on their hands.  So I'd guess nothing of the sort would happen.

I don't think it would have to be covert.  Bobby Bonilla's agent did something very similar 15 years ago.  The Mets deferred $5.9 million for 10 years at 8% interest.  They now owe him $30 million over the next 25 years.  How does Bonilla say no? He didn't and he will be making $1.2 million dollars a year until 2035. 

[Hrbowski]

If I remember correctly this is now against the rules, so the commissioner says no.

[Dman]

 

If I remember correctly this is now against the rules, so the commissioner says no.

 

 

Didn't Max Sherzer's contract have deferred money in it as well?

[Platoon]

If I were Mauer I would take that deal in a heart beat. Bobby Bonilla has the greatest gig in America. Literally all he has to do is be alive and he makes $1 million a year from the Mets. Could you imagine the resentment Joe would get from fans if there was a Joe Mauer pay day similar to Bobby Bonilla?

We just have to swallow this pill for 3 more years....ugh.... then it will finally be over.

 

The Twins just spent 10M to bring back a 40 yr old former Twin OF, and want him back next year. They are likely exploring signing a 39 yr old FA catcher, another former Twin. What makes you think in 3 yrs it will be all over? :) I am sure in 3 yrs we will hear that Vargas still needs some seasoning in Rocherster!

[Thrylos]

How about, hypothetically, if Mauer's decline is not really Mauer's fault?  The whole team hit like a AAA team and every single hitter (other than Hicks) has declined.

 

How about, hypothetically, finding a hitting coach who can help Mauer (and the rest of the team) return back to form?

[Boom Boom]

How about, hypothetically, if Mauer's decline is not really Mauer's fault? The whole team hit like a AAA team and every single hitter (other than Hicks) has declined.

 

How about, hypothetically, finding a hitting coach who can help Mauer (and the rest of the team) return back to form?

What are you talking about? If Mauer thought a different hitting coach could help him return to form, Joe Vavra was right there.

 

You know, the hitting coach from when Mauer was good.

[Danchat]

I think we might be having this discussion at the end of 2016 about saying goodbye before the 2017 season. Mauer is going to be around in 2016 whether we like it or not.

[nicksaviking]

I always got the impression that Joe Mauer's hitting coach was Joe Mauer. That's not necessarily a criticism either, the guy knows about hitting and mechanics.

 

Many hitters age and lose bat speed but cheat a bit and sacrifice strikeouts but gain some power. Joe just never had the mechanics for the power; it seems to me there's just no trade off for him and what appears to be diminished bat speed.

[DaveW]

I say no first (to tired threads about the Mauer contract)

[Minniman]

How about Joe Mauer working out with a speed/power/conditioning coach in the offseason instead of playing golf. The Mickey Mantle era is long over.

[Loosey]

 

I think we might be having this discussion at the end of 2016 about saying goodbye before the 2017 season. Mauer is going to be around in 2016 whether we like it or not.

My hypothetical was based on him declining again in 2016 and this discussion taking place next offseason.  I may not have been clear in the original post.

[Hrbowski]

 

Didn't Max Sherzer's contract have deferred money in it as well?

It was not a restructured contract.