What a James Shields Trade Could Look Like

[howieramone2]

No, we don't want ANOTHER old, mediocre, expensive pitcher......that's the point people are making. We have May, Berrios, Duffey in line....we don't need to tie up another spot with another number 3/4 guy.

Mike, for the second time Shields is a 2/3. We are in the win now mode. It's nice to see you finally embraced the rebuild, but you're late to the dance.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, for the second time Shields is a 2/3. We are in the win now mode. It's nice to see you finally embraced the rebuild, but you're late to the dance.

 

Uh, I asked for FAs to be signed for 4 years to speed up the rebuild, it was others that thought signing FAs was wrong

 

(80% of the rotation was to be FAs, half the starting hitters to be FAs.....so Ryan must agree that FA is not evil and the rebuild should be sped up.....).

 

I don't agree Shields is a 2/3 going forward. His numbers are going down three years in a row now. Next year, maybe he's a 3.....but after that? I doubt it. And, it isn't an isolated decision, they already have Santana and Hughes signed for good, not great, money, and have Gibson and Milone around. If they are dealing Nolasco, it shouldn't be for a piece they largely already have, imo. In a vacuum, adding Shields makes sense. On a roster with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Berrios, May, Duffey, I don't think it does.

[tobi0040]

 

Uh, I asked for FAs to be signed for 4 years to speed up the rebuild, it was others that thought signing FAs was wrong

 

(80% of the rotation was to be FAs, half the starting hitters to be FAs.....so Ryan must agree that FA is not evil and the rebuild should be sped up.....).

 

I don't agree Shields is a 2/3 going forward. His numbers are going down three years in a row now. Next year, maybe he's a 3.....but after that? I doubt it. And, it isn't an isolated decision, they already have Santana and Hughes signed for good, not great, money, and have Gibson and Milone around. If they are dealing Nolasco, it shouldn't be for a piece they largely already have, imo. In a vacuum, adding Shields makes sense. On a roster with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Berrios, May, Duffey, I don't think it does.

 

I think Milone is getting moved this off-season.  Pelfrey won't be re-upped, and I don't have high hopes for Duffy.  

 

Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Berrios, Shields, and May next year.  One guy is always hurt, suspended, or struggling.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

If you assume they are trading other pitchers........then maybe it makes sense. I'd rather they just sign a FA, and not trade for something they can sign. Save the trading for catchers and prospects......and sign starters.

[howieramone2]

Uh, I asked for FAs to be signed for 4 years to speed up the rebuild, it was others that thought signing FAs was wrong

 

(80% of the rotation was to be FAs, half the starting hitters to be FAs.....so Ryan must agree that FA is not evil and the rebuild should be sped up.....).

 

I don't agree Shields is a 2/3 going forward. His numbers are going down three years in a row now. Next year, maybe he's a 3.....but after that? I doubt it. And, it isn't an isolated decision, they already have Santana and Hughes signed for good, not great, money, and have Gibson and Milone around. If they are dealing Nolasco, it shouldn't be for a piece they largely already have, imo. In a vacuum, adding Shields makes sense. On a roster with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Berrios, May, Duffey, I don't think it does.

Berrios, Duffey, and to some degree May, are still pie in the sky as starters. May and Duffey will go a long ways towards solidifying the pen with Berrios as first man up. With Shields, Santana, Hughes, Gibson, and Milone in the rotation, Hedges in the mix at catcher, I would move all the chips to the center of the table.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Berrios, Duffey, and to some degree May, are still pie in the sky as starters. May and Duffey will go a long ways towards solidifying the pen with Berrios as first man up. With Shields, Santana, Hughes, Gibson, and Milone in the rotation, Hedges in the mix at catcher, I would move all the chips to the center of the table.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, btw, I am saying we don't agree on the Shields the next 2 years, but I could be wrong about him just as much as you could be. That is a big, big, big part of our disagreement here.

[TheLeviathan]

I think the Twins should be devoting all their assets to catcher and relief pitcher, not starters losing their velocity and struggling in a pitcher's haven.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, btw, I am saying we don't agree on the Shields the next 2 years, but I could be wrong about him just as much as you could be. That is a big, big, big part of our disagreement here.

Mike,

 

I think there is another difference.  The approach you advocate costs $20M less annually.  That would buy a very good bullpen without giving up assets.

 

I would also bet that Berrios or May will have a higher WAR in 2017 and 2018 if they get the chance to start.

[tobi0040]

 

Berrios, Duffey, and to some degree May, are still pie in the sky as starters. May and Duffey will go a long ways towards solidifying the pen with Berrios as first man up. With Shields, Santana, Hughes, Gibson, and Milone in the rotation, Hedges in the mix at catcher, I would move all the chips to the center of the table.

 

I am confused how we ended up with Hedges AND Shields for Nolasco, Polanco, and a piece.

 

Hedges was the 24th overall prospect in 2014 and reached the majors at 22. He plays a position that is incredibly thin within the league.  He likely has more trade value than anyone in our system outside Buxton, Sano, and Berrios (probably close to Berrios).

 

The reality is in the Shields for Nolasco swap, it is the Twins that need to throw in something ridiculous in addition.  Not the Padres. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike,

 

I think there is another difference.  The approach you advocate costs $20M less annually.  That would buy a very good bullpen without giving up assets.

 

I would also bet that Berrios or May will have a higher WAR in 2017 and 2018 if they get the chance to start.

 

Very true, I forgot about that.....

[howieramone2]

I am confused how we ended up with Hedges AND Shields for Nolasco, Polanco, and a piece.

 

Hedges was the 24th overall prospect in 2014 and reached the majors at 22. He plays a position that is incredibly thin within the league.  He likely has more trade value than anyone in our system outside Buxton, Sano, and Berrios (probably close to Berrios).

 

The reality is in the Shields for Nolasco swap, it is the Twins that need to throw in something ridiculous in addition.  Not the Padres.

I've been working off post #3 which includes Kohl Stewart. Arcia as 4th piece is interchangeable.

[tobi0040]

 

I've been working off post #3 which includes Kohl Stewart. Arcia as 4th piece is interchangeable.

 

Polanco and Stewart may both be off the top 100 list next year.  Arcia is awful in the field and struggles against lefties.  He could not crack our roster this year and for sure has no value in the NL.

 

So these guys, and Nolasco who is not healthy and has had a 5.50 ERA the last two years.   For Shields and Hedges?  

 

At least humor us and throw Plouffe in. Of course they have a guy at 3B that is outplaying Plouffe. But throw in someone with actual value.

[RJM96]

San Diego Receives:

SP Ricky Nolasco

SS Jorge Polanco

RP Alex Meyer

SP Kohl Stewart

1B Amaurys Minier

 

Minnesota receives:

SP James Shields

C Austin Hedges

 

Polanco just recently cracked MLB.com's top 100 prospects list. He is trending upward. San Diego has zero minor league depth at shortstop. Meyer is a former top 25 starting pitching prospect, and I have seen him as high as 50 as a reliever. He still has the tools to be a dominant bullpen option, and many scouts have viewed him as a dominant closer for years now. Stewart is a question mark but again he still has the tools to be an ace once he puts it all together. Minier is very raw but also comes with a very high ceiling.

 

I think this trade goes through. All Shields related hate put aside, do you think the Padres would pull the trigger on this one?

[tobi0040]

 

San Diego Receives:
SP Ricky Nolasco
SS Jorge Polanco
RP Alex Meyer
SP Kohl Stewart
1B Amaurys Minier

Minnesota receives:
SP James Shields
C Austin Hedges

Polanco just recently cracked MLB.com's top 100 prospects list. He is trending upward. San Diego has zero minor league depth at shortstop. Meyer is a former top 25 starting pitching prospect, and I have seen him as high as 50 as a reliever. He still has the tools to be a dominant bullpen option, and many scouts have viewed him as a dominant closer for years now. Stewart is a question mark but again he still has the tools to be an ace once he puts it all together. Minier is very raw but also comes with a very high ceiling.

I think this trade goes through. All Shields related hate put aside, do you think the Padres would pull the trigger on this 

 

Please finish this sentence.

 

A year ago, if the Twins had traded a #3 starter with a good track record and JO Berrios for:

 

-A starting pitcher with absolutely no value

-A fringe top 100 prospect

-A 25/26 year old former #30 prospect with issues

-A top draft pick who has not struck anyone out, maybe he is rated in the 90's for the sole reason of his draft position last year

-A guy most people have never heard of

 

the reaction on this board would have been????????

[dxpavelka]

 

Padres receive:
SP Ricky Nolasco
SP Kohl Stewart
OF Oswaldo Arcia

Twins receive:
SP James Shields

I would love to get back Hedges in a deal with the Padres but it just doesn't seem realistic at this point. I could maybe see adding Plouffe to the deal to bring back Norris, but the Padres don't seem to have any need for a (good but not great) 30 year old third baseman who may or may not be past his prime.

The Padres get out of James Shields's contract a few years early and get a promising arm for their future. Ricky Nolasco is back home in the national league where he belongs. Arcia will provide pop to a Padres lineup for years to come.

The Twins bolster their rotation and make the Nolasco accusition seem worthwhile.

I love this trade. It was rumored at the deadline and it just makes so much sense for both teams.

Given the fact that we rank no higher than 11th in the big leagues in any significant offensive stat category and rank in the twenties in most I'm having a bit of trouble moving a guy who will "provide pop to another teams lineup for years to come."

 

[Jham]

I mean realistically speaking, San Diego doesn't see themselves as rebuilding so much as rebounding. Their unwillingness to unload at the deadline tells me they're hoping to have better luck next year. And maybe even looking to buy harder during the off season.

 

I seem to be a bigger Shields guy than most, but i think we need to change our focus to more attainable assets.

[tobi0040]

 

Given the fact that we rank no higher than 11th in the big leagues in any significant offensive stat category and rank in the twenties in most I'm having a bit of trouble moving a guy who will "provide pop to another teams lineup for years to come."

 

That is the type of thing that drives me crazy.  We don't have a good offense and this guy could not crack ours.  He also is a complete liability in the OF.  Yet somehow he is valuable to other teams let alone one in the NL.

 

You almost never see two good pieces moved for 5-6 pieces, none being anything near a sure thing.  Most failed prospects.

 

Why stop here? Can we throw in Josmil Pinto and Danny Santana for Tyson Ross?

[Loosey]

I don't see much of a reason for either team to do this deal.  If the reason the Padres want to trade Shields is to get out from under his contract, why would they want to take on another bad contract?  If that were really the case they would trade him purely for prospects and young guys with upside.

 

On the flip side, the Twins have a glut of 30 year old + pitchers already and most are expensive.  Why would they get rid of one old expensive guy to take on another older more expensive guy?  Especially when the Twins have a handful of young arms who are waiting in the wings right now who are less expensive with much higher ceilings than a declining Shields.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins were in serious discussions with the Padres at the deadline. The Twins really like Shields. The Padres would take on Nolasco and were said to be offered Arcia and Stewart in that deal. At one point, the inclusion on Kepler and Kimbrel was also discussed.

 

I don't know if those talks will ever be rekindled, but there is mutual interest.

[KidBro]

 

Ugh. Past postseason performance means nothing when you're trying to predict future performance.

 

I remember hearing people yell about how awful Barry Bonds was in the postseason. He's a choker! The Giants will go nowhere! Bonds will collapse! Gnashing of teeth!

 

Bonds proceeded to post a 1.446 OPS (!) between the 2002 and 2003 postseasons.

 

So yeah, playoffs. *yawn*

 

Is the guy good in the regular season? Yes? Then go get that guy. Is the guy bad in the regular season? Yes? Then don't get that guy. It's that simple.

I'd love to have a chance at DP.  But I was responding to a post that brings up Pitcher A's lack of success in the post season as to why he shouldn't be considered, while clamoring for Pitcher B but ignoring that he has even less success than Pitcher A in the post season.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins were in serious discussions with the Padres at the deadline. The Twins really like Shields. The Padres would take on Nolasco and were said to be offered Arcia and Stewart in that deal. At one point, the inclusion on Kepler and Kimbrel was also discussed.

I don't know if those talks will ever be rekindled, but there is mutual interest.

 

This makes me want to puke. 

[howieramone2]

 

This makes me want to puke. 

 

Jack Morris

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jack Morris

 

Twins traded zero players to get him, did not already have 6-8 SP on the roster......indeed, they signed him to one of the biggest FA deals ever. I think Morris is more comparable to Price or Greinke this year......not to trading for Shields.

 

I would not be opposed to signing an elite player to an elite deal*

 

 

[DaveW]

Why are people so enamored with Austin Hedges? .706 OPS in the minors is nothing special.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why are people so enamored with Austin Hedges? .706 OPS in the minors is nothing special.

 

He's said to be an elite defender.

[DaveW]

Nolasco, Milone, Arcia, polanco andStewart for:

 

Shields

Norris

kimbrel

Benoit

 

Solves the BP problem instantly, and gives you a rotation of:

 

shields

Santana

Berrios

Hughes

Gibson

 

With Duffey waiting in the wings.

[DaveW]

He's said to be an elite defender.

I'm sure he is. But he also was #23 prospect, the cost of acquiring him is going to be too high. Norris is the much better target IMO

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins were in serious discussions with the Padres at the deadline. The Twins really like Shields. The Padres would take on Nolasco and were said to be offered Arcia and Stewart in that deal. At one point, the inclusion on Kepler and Kimbrel was also discussed.

I don't know if those talks will ever be rekindled, but there is mutual interest.

Jeremy, given your previous reporting on the Twins-Padres rumors/talks, I get the impression that you are presenting mostly speculation and inference as "serious discussions" here, in regards to Shields and Kimbrel (and previously Tulo):

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/they-couldn’t-could-they…-r3985

 

I am not sure that this level of "discussion" is even meaningful at all, in terms of gauging trade likelihood.  I guess it's hard to tell until you and source have more of a track record in this arena, but that's my impression right now...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm sure he is. But he also was #23 prospect, the cost of acquiring him is going to be too high. Norris is the much better target IMO

Hedges was #23 by Baseball Prospectus.  #51 by MLB.com, and unranked by BA (dropping him from #27 the previous year to completely out of their top 100).

 

Not sure what that means.  The fact that the Padres have utilized him as a sparingly-used backup this year, after only a month of AAA time, suggests they're not super-high on him either.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not sure what that means.  The fact that the Padres have utilized him as a sparingly-used backup this year, after only a month of AAA time, suggests they're not super-high on him either.

 

Well, that, or the Padres have no clue what they're doing.