Woo Hoo

[stringer bell]

The updated Postseason Probability is now all the way to 7.6%! The Twins even passed the Tigers in this category, with the Tigers losing and the Twins winning at Baltimore. I'm guessing that with less than a quarter of the season remaining, each day's wins and losses change the percentage pretty dramatically (relatively speaking).

 

Other percentages of note:  KC-100%, New York and Toronto-95%, Houston-93%, Angels 27%, Texas 30%, Tampa 25%, Baltimore 17%.

 

This info is available at mlb.com provided by Baseball Prospectus.

[Twins7]

What? KC clinched a playoff spot already? That's not right. Excited about the twins, though, think they can make some noise these last few weeks. Seems that they've stabilized the bullpen a little bit, and the kids are up and contributing at the plate.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Assigning 100% to Kansas City makes me think this is just a bunch of 20-yr-olds winging it, Buzzfeed style. 

[stringer bell]

 

Assigning 100% to Kansas City makes me think this is just a bunch of 20-yr-olds winging it, Buzzfeed style. 

Hey! My son works for Buzzfeed and he's not 20. However, winging sounds about right, as far as their content.

[Squirrel]

 

Assigning 100% to Kansas City makes me think this is just a bunch of 20-yr-olds winging it, Buzzfeed style. 

Well, and Tampa is 1.5 gb in the WC race, same as the Twins and they are at 23% ? I know there is criteria here that I don't know of and it all is part of the whole, but that's a huge difference for two teams tied in the hunt?

[stringer bell]

Remaining schedule has to figure in here. The site says that they simulate thousands of games. Here's an excerpt from the explanation:

 

Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule.

[Squirrel]

 

Remaining schedule has to figure in here. The site says that they simulate thousands of games. Here's an excerpt from the explanation:

 

Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule.

Yeah, I figured that was some of it ... but still ... it's a pretty wide margin for two teams that are for right now, tied, in the standings. Not that I would expect their percentages to be equal ... but that just seems like a wide margin. But hey ... I have pretty low expectations for the Twins making it anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, and Tampa is 1.5 gb in the WC race, same as the Twins and they are at 23% ? I know there is criteria here that I don't know of and it all is part of the whole, but that's a huge difference for two teams tied in the hunt?

It is postseason odds, not wild card odds. Tampa has a small chance of winning their division yet too.

[Craig Arko]

Lots of different notions and interpretations of probability out there.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability

[Otto von Ballpark]

What? KC clinched a playoff spot already? That's not right. Excited about the twins, though, think they can make some noise these last few weeks. Seems that they've stabilized the bullpen a little bit, and the kids are up and contributing at the plate.

KC has the best record in the league by as wide a margin (6 games) as the next best teams have playoff spots. 12.5 game lead in the division, plus 11 ahead of the wild card, with 40 games to go, they are about as close to locks as you can get for postseason play. (Remember, that 100% isn't just the division, it is division or wild card odds. It is all but mathametically impossible for KC to completely miss the playoffs at this point)

[jimmer]

 

Well, and Tampa is 1.5 gb in the WC race, same as the Twins and they are at 23% ? I know there is criteria here that I don't know of and it all is part of the whole, but that's a huge difference for two teams tied in the hunt?

'Postseason probabilities are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and indicate each team's probability of winning the division or wild card, or any postseason berth. Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule.'

 

So certainly not some youngsters winging it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

KC has the best record in the league by as wide a margin (6 games) as the next best teams have playoff spots. 12.5 game lead in the division, plus 11 ahead of the wild card, with 40 games to go, they are about as close to locks as you can get for postseason play. (Remember, that 100% isn't just the division, it is division or wild card odds. It is all but mathametically impossible for KC to completely miss the playoffs at this point)

 

Yeah, something significantly greater than 99% is what I think we can all agree, if not exactly 100. What's your take on both NY and Toronto having 95% as that's only a 6 game slump in the standings for one of them? Seems like worse has happened in the final six weeks. 

[jimmer]

KC is listed as 100%.  Think about it. If they play all the way down to 50% for the rest of the season (and that'd be a good size drop since for the first 122 they played at 60%), they will still have 94 wins.  Twins would have to go 32-8 just to tie.  Probably why they are listed at 100% (which is a roundup it seems since the division is 99.8 and the WC is 0.1).

[Dantes929]

I love this stuff and sneer at it at the same time.     My favorite seasons were 2006 and 2009.  Fans were saying the Twins had to sweep a certain series to have a chance.  Instead they lost 2 of 3 but then won 4 of the next 5 while the Tigers lost 6 of 7.   You just never know how many it takes.    Just win today.   And how about a shout out to the bullpen.    They take a lot of abuse but rarely get recognized when they do well.  .     

[Squirrel]

 

It is postseason odds, not wild card odds. Tampa has a small chance of winning their division yet too.

Tampa's post-season odds are 24.5%; wc odds 23%. Read the wrong line, but still ... quite a margin for teams that are tied at the moment ...

[Brock Beauchamp]

KC has the best record in the league by as wide a margin (6 games) as the next best teams have playoff spots. 12.5 game lead in the division, plus 11 ahead of the wild card, with 40 games to go, they are about as close to locks as you can get for postseason play. (Remember, that 100% isn't just the division, it is division or wild card odds. It is all but mathametically impossible for KC to completely miss the playoffs at this point)

Yeah, this. The simulation takes into account past play and future schedule.

 

Yes, it is mathematically possible for KC to miss the postseason.

 

No, that will not happen. To miss the postseason, they'd have to go something like 8-32 (and they still might win the division with that record).

 

These simulations aren't about pure mathematic possibilities, they're more grounded in reality than that. Hence the 100% chance to make the postseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Tampa's post-season odds are 24.5%; wc odds 23%. Read the wrong line, but still ... quite a margin for teams that are tied at the moment ...

Thanks, I stand corrected! Guess it is strength of schedule. We still have to play Tampa on the road too, that is probably a big factor.

[PseudoSABR]

If the playoff probability swings so wildly from game to game, it means that probability really isn't forecasting with any accuracy.   These playoff percentages are the stupid. 

[Craig Arko]

If the playoff probability swings so wildly from game to game, it means that probability really isn't forecasting with any accuracy.   These playoff percentages are the stupid.

 

The technical term is 'wildass guess.'

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thanks, I stand corrected! Guess it is strength of schedule. We still have to play Tampa on the road too, that is probably a big factor.

I'm sure that plays a huge part in the percentage gap. The Twins play Tampa on the road. The Twins are a terrible road team. Tampa is a decent home team. Any good predictive model would take that into account.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the playoff probability swings so wildly from game to game, it means that probability really isn't forecasting with any accuracy. These playoff percentages are the stupid.

2-3% hardly seems like a wild swing. There are only 40 games left, a 2-3% swing after one seems perfectly reasonable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I'm sure that plays a huge part in the percentage gap. The Twins play Tampa on the road. The Twins are a terrible road team. Tampa is a decent home team. Any good predictive model would take that into account.

 

As the Twins have clearly shown the past three games.

 

just having fun

 

Also,

 

Baltimore 37-24 at home, Tampa Bay 31-31 at home

[spinowner]

 

Assigning 100% to Kansas City makes me think this is just a bunch of 20-yr-olds winging it, Buzzfeed style. 

It's probably similar to win probability calculations. While it's possible to win a game after trailing by 13 runs no major league team has ever done it, so the win prob for a team with a 13-run lead is 100%.

[Riverbrian]

If the Twins can roll 10 wins in a row. 

 

The World Changes!!! 

 

Actually it might be a supernova type of event for our world. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, Tampa is currently playing Oakland, worst record in the AL, and has 3 home games left against Miami, 3rd worst record in MLB. Twins don't have any opponents left who quite compare to those two clubs.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

The technical term is 'wildass guess.'

SWAG is the preferred acronym

[PseudoSABR]

 

2-3% hardly seems like a wild swing. There are only 40 games left, a 2-3% swing after one seems perfectly reasonable.

Put another way, the Twins doubled (more than that?) their chance of the playoffs in mere days.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Put another way, the Twins doubled (more than that?) their chance of the playoffs in mere days.

That happens when a bad road team unexpectedly beats a good home team three times in a row.

 

After all, a projection model can only predict expected events... The Twins besting the Orioles three times in Baltimore was certainly not expected, particularly after the New York implosion that immediately preceded this series.

[Craig Arko]

The thing with these models is that unless they include the variance of the values (e.g. 7.5% +- 1.5%) the exact numbers are not worth a whole lot. They can order the teams but a quick look at the standings can do that too without any false impression of numerical accuracy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's probably similar to win probability calculations. While it's possible to win a game after trailing by 13 runs no major league team has ever done it, so the win prob for a team with a 13-run lead is 100%.

What about overcoming a 12-run deficit-----after the 7th inning stretch??

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE200108050.shtml?mobile=false