Trade Buxton?

[DaveW]

I saw him trying to hit live curveballs, about 100 reps. Other than a single season at A, he did not break .300 for batting average. 2 trips at the AFL against top pitching talent, .610 and .692 OPS. MLB .501 OPS (I know SSS, but compare what he did to Sano and Polanco.)

...

 

 

No, I am not convinced about his hit tool. Not harsh, just realistic. Regressed a lot the past 2 seasons.

Compare what he did to the twins whole lineup in that insanely small sample size. I saw him take a ton of at bats against curveballs as well. He looked fine to me.

[spinowner]

Dude is 21 years old. His performance during his very short major league call-up means absolutely nothing. The vast majority of baseball people who have seen him play think he's going to be an elite major leaguer. No GM would ever offer enough for TR to even consider trading him.

[stringer bell]

The thing is that Buxton has had a disrupted road, due to injuries and midseason promotions. He has had a tough time getting started at each new juncture.

 

In the spring, he looked vulnerable to both changeups and breaking balls. If he were recalled now, I wouldn't expect him to dominate. One would hope that some play in September would set him up to hit the ground running in 2016.

[SwainZag]

should had said, "duh no"

 

Still, I see Buxton as a 3 tool player (speed, d, arm) who might only hit fastballs and has trouble being healthy.

It's not so much how you view Buxton, but what do you see so valuable in d'arnaud?

[Thrylos]

 

It's not so much how you view Buxton, but what do you see so valuable in d'arnaud?

 

Perennial All Star Catcher, in the Gary Carter mold, who in his prime will be approaching his AA and AAA numbers in the majors.

(The Mets' ballpark is a pitcher's park, if interested in his MLB numbers, check OPS+)

[big dog]

I'd trade Shane Robinson for Buxton right now.

 

PS, Berardino just posted that Buxton ran into a wall today.  Got the wind knocked out of him, but stayed in the game.

[Willihammer]

Buxton IRL

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knMMOkrb100

[Cast of Thousands]

 

Hey man, doesn't hurt to ask, right?

 

Lot of people have already retired his number, and he hasn't even gotten out of the gate.

Hit the nail on the head here.  This is what I struggle with, the notion that Buxton is a sure thing and completely untouchable.  

 

There is absolutely a valid argument right now that you don't trade him because the return just plain wouldn't be as much as you want or think.  THAT is the only reason I wouldn't entertain it at this point.

 

With what we know right NOW, TODAY, I don't know how you can put his value a whole lot higher than Hicks.  He certainly has the tools to be considerably better, but nobody knows enough to say.

[spinowner]

 

With what we know right NOW, TODAY, I don't know how you can put his value a whole lot higher than Hicks.  He certainly has the tools to be considerably better, but nobody knows enough to say.

Buxton's current playing ability is below Hicks'. Buxton's current playing ability is probably below Hunter's. But that's not the same thing as value. And while nobody knows enough to say with certainty what his future playing ability will be we can make reasonable projections that it will be greatly improved over his current playing ability and stay that way for many, many years. That's what makes his value higher than Hicks' and immeasurably higher than Hunter's. 

[Oxtung]

I'd be ok with trading Buxton for elite level pitching. Julio Urias, Giolito, Glasnow perhaps. Bundy maybe. A really interesting name to me is Fernandez from the Marlins. Guy is an absolute stud but can't stay healthy yet. Still just 23. Big injury risk but proven huge upside. He will be entering arbitration next season so maybe the Marlins aren't interested in his price tag..... Very intriguing to me.

[drjim]

 

I'd be ok with trading Buxton for elite level pitching. Julio Urias, Giolito, Glasnow perhaps. Bundy maybe. A really interesting name to me is Fernandez from the Marlins. Guy is an absolute stud but can't stay healthy yet. Still just 23. Big injury risk but proven huge upside. He will be entering arbitration next season so maybe the Marlins aren't interested in his price tag..... Very intriguing to me.

 

No on all those prospects for Buxton, but I certainly agree that Fernandez would be a very intriguing idea.

[awinter]

 

 Kepler? Walker? Arcia? There is some grade A depth in the OF.

I say we trade these 3 guys. The return won't be as good, but we also won't have to give up as much (not to mention potentially gaining some 40-man flexibility).

[SwainZag]

 

I say we trade these 3 guys. The return won't be as good, but we also won't have to give up as much (not to mention potentially gaining some 40-man flexibility).

 

Why would they trade all 3?  That leaves the OF going forward with Buxton, Hicks and Rosario and little to no depth in the minor leagues.  That's not really ideal.

[Oxtung]

No on all those prospects for Buxton, but I certainly agree that Fernandez would be a very intriguing idea.

I understand your reluctance to trade for most pitching prospects, in fact that is why I only listed 3 and I'm not positive on 2 of those myself, but Urias seems like a no brainer to me. 18 year old lefty throws low to mid 90s that has absolutely dominated at every step he's been, including AA this year.

 

Another way to look at it is to compare him to Berrios. Urias is 2 years younger but only half a season behind Berrios (Berrios finished 2014 in AA and Urias began 2015 in AA.) Urias has been more dominant at a younger age and in tougher leagues than Berrios. And he's left handed.

 

I see Urias as being the closest thing to a sure fire super star in the minors right now. I'm curious why you wouldn't trade Buxton for him straight up, though to be fair I doubt the Dodgers would do that trade.

[spinowner]

 

I understand your reluctance to trade for most pitching prospects, in fact that is why I only listed 3 and I'm not positive on 2 of those myself, but Urias seems like a no brainer to me. 18 year old lefty throws low to mid 90s that has absolutely dominated at every step he's been, including AA this year.

Another way to look at it is to compare him to Berrios. Urias is 2 years younger but only half a season behind Berrios (Berrios finished 2014 in AA and Urias began 2015 in AA.) Urias has been more dominant at a younger age and in tougher leagues than Berrios. And he's left handed.

I see Urias as being the closest thing to a sure fire super star in the minors right now. I'm curious why you wouldn't trade Buxton for him straight up, though to be fair I doubt the Dodgers would do that trade.

I don't know. Deolis Guerra looked like a future stud when he was 18.

[drjim]

 

I understand your reluctance to trade for most pitching prospects, in fact that is why I only listed 3 and I'm not positive on 2 of those myself, but Urias seems like a no brainer to me. 18 year old lefty throws low to mid 90s that has absolutely dominated at every step he's been, including AA this year.

Another way to look at it is to compare him to Berrios. Urias is 2 years younger but only half a season behind Berrios (Berrios finished 2014 in AA and Urias began 2015 in AA.) Urias has been more dominant at a younger age and in tougher leagues than Berrios. And he's left handed.

I see Urias as being the closest thing to a sure fire super star in the minors right now. I'm curious why you wouldn't trade Buxton for him straight up, though to be fair I doubt the Dodgers would do that trade.

 

Agreed that Urias is much better than Berrios. I wouldn't come close to trading Buxton for a pitcher of Berrios caliber. I want to see a pitcher get through a mlb season a couple of years before I would trust that he can do it (production as much as health) and would move an asset as valuable as Buxton.

 

I think Fernandez is intriguing but I wouldn't trade Buxton for him either due to his injury concerns. But that is the right idea for a pitcher, a young, controlled starter who has been dominant. And even that I would be really hesitant.

 

I think injuries and his poor debut have caused people to downgrade Buxton a little too much when thinking of fair return. Correa is clearly ahead of him, but aside from him there is a not a prospect or guy who debuted this year that national experts would obviously put ahead of him (including Bryant). He is probably just a half year behind where we would want him.

[awinter]

 

Why would they trade all 3?  That leaves the OF going forward with Buxton, Hicks and Rosario and little to no depth in the minor leagues.  That's not really ideal.

It's not ideal to trade your best prospect either. I was just making a point- if we are going to trade away prospects based on position depth, we shouldn't trade away the franchise altering prospect.

[SwainZag]

 

It's not ideal to trade your best prospect either. I was just making a point- if we are going to trade away prospects based on position depth, we shouldn't trade away the franchise altering prospect.

 

I'm very against trading Buxton for anything, I'll clear that up and agree with you there.  I think the consensus to trade form Buxton/Rosario/Hicks comes with the opinion that they would have more value than Arcia/Kepler/ABW.  This would come in handy if they were targeting something like a catching upgrade.

[Oxtung]

I don't know. Deolis Guerra looked like a future stud when he was 18.

Urias is a much much better prospect than Guerra ever was. At 18 Guerra had a 4 ERA with 6.6 K/9 in the pitcher friendly FSL A-ball. Urias has a 3.20 ERA and >10 K/9 in the hitter friendly Texas AA league. Urias was also ranked in the top 10 MLB prospects coming into the year and has only increased his value over the season.

[Oxtung]

Agreed that Urias is much better than Berrios. I wouldn't come close to trading Buxton for a pitcher of Berrios caliber. I want to see a pitcher get through a mlb season a couple of years before I would trust that he can do it (production as much as health) and would move an asset as valuable as Buxton.

 

I think Fernandez is intriguing but I wouldn't trade Buxton for him either due to his injury concerns. But that is the right idea for a pitcher, a young, controlled starter who has been dominant. And even that I would be really hesitant.

 

I think injuries and his poor debut have caused people to downgrade Buxton a little too much when thinking of fair return. Correa is clearly ahead of him, but aside from him there is a not a prospect or guy who debuted this year that national experts would obviously put ahead of him (including Bryant). He is probably just a half year behind where we would want him.

The problem with waiting until a pitcher has proven themselves capable at the MLB level is that their value has significantly increased, to the point at which Buxton can no longer bring back an ace or even a #2 pitcher. He might be able to get a middle of the rotation starter but to get more than that you have to throw in another very good prospect or 3. Just look at the James shields trade a couple of years back. Or another way to look at it is would the Mets give up Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard or DeGrom? Definitely not. Not without much more than Buxton.

 

So how do the jTwins get an ace pitcher for this next stretch where we all hope they are contending in most seasons?

 

BTW I agree with many fans undervaluing Buxton currently.

[cmb0252]

We have the #1 prospect in baseball and we have a thread about trading him....makes me feel like we don't deserve him.

[kab21]

I am not sure how people don't understand that prospect for prospect trades don't really happen.  Garza for Delmon is one rare example where two contenders matched up with a surplus that other teams needed.  But typically teams trading for prospects are rebuilding and they want to part with older MLB players.

 

We won't be trading buxton for Urias.  We would be trading Buxton for the next year's equivalent of Cole Hamels but typically these guys are only signed for 2 or maybe 3 years when they get traded. 

[Oxtung]

I am not sure how people don't understand that prospect for prospect trades don't really happen.  Garza for Delmon is one rare example where two contenders matched up with a surplus that other teams needed.  But typically teams trading for prospects are rebuilding and they want to part with older MLB players.

 

We won't be trading buxton for Urias.  We would be trading Buxton for the next year's equivalent of Cole Hamels but typically these guys are only signed for 2 or maybe 3 years when they get traded.

 

I think most people here understand that prospect for prospect trades are rare and that this is most likely just a philosophical debate but that does not mean the debate shouldn't be had. Second, you yourself just named a trade where it did happen and by no means is it the only time it has happened. I don't remember who it was off the top of my head but another one happened earlier this year too.

[Twodogs]

I kinda remember that Garza was a malcontent, anyway, however, Fernandez would in my opinion be a huge get in a trade.  But I don't see the Twins trading Buxton, nor should they.  I mean when talking about prospects you have to give them some time.  Having Carlos Gomez around here for the past 3 - 4 years would have looked kinda nice.

[kab21]

 

I think most people here understand that prospect for prospect trades are rare and that this is most likely just a philosophical debate but that does not mean the debate shouldn't be had. Second, you yourself just named a trade where it did happen and by no means is it the only time it has happened. I don't remember who it was off the top of my head but another one happened earlier this year too.

Why have a philosophical debate about something that doesn't happen?

 

I named one trade to show just how rare it is.  It is incredibly rare.  And the ironic thing is that if you look back at that trade you will see that the surplus of starters for the Twins quickly turned into a shortage and they ended up with too many OF'ers. 

[Thrylos]

 

We have the #1 prospect in baseball and we have a thread about trading him....makes me feel like we don't deserve him.

 

More like he does not deserve to be treated as #1

[cmb0252]

More like he does not deserve to be treated as #1

Because of 11 games he played in the bigs so far? Otherwise I don't understand what isn't to like.

 

Plays premium position? Check

Put up video game numbers while always being young for his age? Check

Great measurables? Check

Widely praised by scouts? Check

Good make-up? Double check

 

The only other knock I can see, which you bring up several times, is health but that is random. Heck, the player you keep saying you wish we trade for d'Arnaud has a significantly longer track record of poor health. This is why we can't have nice things.