a few random thoughts

[USAFChief]

1.  Having vented about the lack of Twins trade activity for a couple weeks now, I thought I would actually put some thought into it.

 

I've really got nothing, but I've been kicking around the idea that at the end of the day, maybe this part of his job is just something Terry Ryan doesn't like doing. it's distasteful to him.  He simply doesn't enjoy the negotiations, the back and forth, working multiple angles, trying to get the better of the other 29 GMs in the game.  

 

I wonder if maybe he makes a phone call--and only when really forced into the position of having to make a call, or answer one--makes an offer he considers fair, and then if the answer isn't "yes," he hangs up the phone and moves on.

 

Because really, at the end of the day...he simply doesn't do much trading.  Of any kind.  Deadline, offseason, whatever.  

 

2.  For as weak as the bullpen is, I've come to the conclusion the Twins biggest need going forward is a middle of the order hitter.  I don't know if the Twins/Molitor have the courage to move Mauer out of the middle of the order, but they need to, and they need to find someone who can hit there.  Mauer isn't that guy.  Love him, hate him, or something in between, today's game was an illustration of just how awful the Twins are when it comes to a number three hitter.  Nelson Cruz has a .950 OPS.  On a 3-0 pitch, late in a scoreless tie, he gets the green light, because he SHOULD get the green light.  He's a dangerous hitter.  He shouldn't have been pitched to in that situation.  Because... He's a legit big league 3 hole hitter.

 

Put the shoe on the other foot. Would any team worry about throwing a cookie to Mauer in that same situation?  Would he even swing?  If he did, would he do anything more than perhaps a double to left, if lucky?  There's no reason NOT to throw a fastball down the middle. Because...he's not a legit big league 3 hole hitter.

 

Mauer's not coming out of the lineup, and he shouldn't, at least until they have 9 better hitters.  

 

But for heaven's sake, if he's hitting third in your lineup, you have problems.   Maybe Sano can be the 4 hole guy, but they need to find one or two real, actual middle of the order guys.  The lack of them is a big reason why this team is really prone to extended scoring droughts.

 

3.  I am of the opinion Trevor May's best path to success going forward is to leave him in the pen.  He might or might not be an above average starter.  He's got the stuff to be a really, really valuable bullpen piece.  We all want hardthrowing, late game strikeout guys in the pen, preferably with control.  Well, they have one.  Or could have one, if they t would give him the job.  Trevor May.

 

4.  I'm not sure which I disagree with more:  the lack of any legit attempt to fix the bullpen either internally or externally, or that fact it's August and Shane Robinson is still on the Twins bench.  Today he's in the lineup, against a RH pitcher.  That's not something a team needs to do voluntarily.  

 

 

[Squirrel]

Concur.

 

I'm sorry I can't really contribute more than that, but I think you spelled it out quite nicely.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree on all but #3. Next year May needs to be back in the rotation, but guys like Duffy, Meyer, Jay, and others need to be in these spots and not aged retreads.

 

But I'm resigned to the fact that for the rest of 2015 May will be there.

[drivlikejehu]

Maybe the Twins should move Gibson to the bullpen. That would certainly strengthen it.

[RichardMcBeef]

Firing Terry Ryan solves pretty much every one of these issues.

[USAFChief]

 

Maybe the Twins should move Gibson to the bullpen. That would certainly strengthen it.

Maybe KC should move Davis back to the rotation too, since starters are always more valuable than relievers, regardless the results.

[Platoon]

I was thinking of Mauer this morning. And I keep getting back to what makes him so invaluable right now is the insistence on hitting him out of his slot. He always was at best a borderline 3 hole hitter and isn't anymore. But having said this, I don't think the solution is currently on this team. In some regards I am making my own argument, but it's what it is. Regrettably I also agree with your take on TR, about not doing any trading. And if that continues, it's going to be the undoing of this teams future. Unfortunately there are good pieces that will have to be dealt because of a clutter in certain areas. But if he doesn't wisely address this roster imbalance, a lot of talent is going to be wasted.

[Bark's Lounge]

I do not believe the Twins Org to have the guts to demote Mauer in the line-up. Unfortunately,  as far as middle of the line-up hitters - we are pretty much stuck with what we have. Sano has made a difference.

 

I think May needs to have another shot at the starting rotation, but not this year. Use him, use him, use him! He has the stuff and arm to be a good end of the game reliever… and bring up Berrios and see what he can bring to the pen.

 

This may be a bit off topic - but I don't believe Ryan should lose his job. I would like it if the Twins hired Jerry Dipoto as an Assistant GM. Ryan will hang it up as GM within the next 3 years and Dipoto is a lot more trustworthy than Anthony or Krivsky. Dipoto did not get a chance to implement his ideas in the Anaheim Angels Org because of that org's disfunction. Scoscia is the boss in that town. I like Dipoto and believe him to be a good baseball mind. Terry Ryan could give him his insight on how Twins organization works and Dipoto could in turn, lend his ideas.

 

When the torch is passed after a few years, Jerry will have the Twins insight and he can implement his concept on how a baseball team should operate. This is a mid-market team. I think this is the kind of job he wants.

[Winston Smith]

An easy fix is to switch Dozier and Mauer. Joe has about the best OBP of the regulars. Dozier should be hitting his homeruns with guys on base while now they are nearly always empty.

[USAFChief]

 

I agree on all but #3. Next year May needs to be back in the rotation, but guys like Duffy, Meyer, Jay, and others need to be in these spots and not aged retreads.

But I'm resigned to the fact that for the rest of 2015 May will be there.

Yeah, I understand that plan too.  For me it's a close call, but I really think May can be more valuable as a dominant reliever than a not-too-shabby starter.  And that's what I think he ends up as, if a starter.

 

We need some dominant starting pitching, I don't disagree with that idea.  Just not sure May is it.

[ashbury]

maybe this part of his job is just something Terry Ryan doesn't like doing. 

He's on record multiple times that he prefers to wait for the phone to ring, rather than him make the first overture. The intended inference I think is that it gives him the upper hand in the negotiation. The unintended implication is along the lines you said.

[Craig Arko]

Contraction.

[drivlikejehu]

Davis wasn't a good starter. May was. Rather important difference.

 

There's also no evidence May will be among the elite relievers in baseball.

[ashbury]

An easy fix is to switch Dozier and Mauer. Joe has about the best OBP of the regulars. Dozier should be hitting his homeruns with guys on base while now they are nearly always empty.

Dozier might see different pitches when runners are on base.

[USAFChief]

 

He's on record multiple times that he prefers to wait for the phone to ring, rather than him make the first overture. The intended inference I think is that it gives him the upper hand in the negotiation. The unintended implication is along the lines you said.

Yeah, but my uneducated, way-too-easy, from-a-distance thought process goes way beyond a negotiation tactic.

 

I wonder if he tries as hard as he can to avoid the whole process.

[jimmer]

 

An easy fix is to switch Dozier and Mauer. Joe has about the best OBP of the regulars. Dozier should be hitting his homeruns with guys on base while now they are nearly always empty.

When pushing for Dozier to be in the 3-hole, does it concern you Dozier is hitting .217 w/RISP this year and .243 w/ RISP for his career?

[USAFChief]

 

An easy fix is to switch Dozier and Mauer. Joe has about the best OBP of the regulars. Dozier should be hitting his homeruns with guys on base while now they are nearly always empty.

For 2015, sure.

But long term, I don't view Dozer as a legit 3 hitter either.  He's a very good player.  Just not an elite hitter.

[USAFChief]

 

Davis wasn't a good starter. May was. Rather important difference.

There's also no evidence May will be among the elite relievers in baseball.

May has no history as a "good" starter.

 

Nor as an elite reliever, either.  I agree.

 

So we're both guessing as to where he'd be most effective going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Winston Smith]

I didn't say Dozier would be a perfect 3 hole hitter just better than Mauer and likely the best option we have at this time, imo.

[drivlikejehu]

May was a good starter this year. The Twins don't realize it and neither do some fans. Oh well.

[Mike Sixel]

I would cut Mauer and move Sano to first. Problem solved.

[notoriousgod71]

Just sign Buscher, Tolbert, Beimel, and Ponson and all of our problems are solved.

[RichardMcBeef]

Just sign Buscher, Tolbert, Beimel, and Ponson and all of our problems are solved.

+1 Livan Hernandez

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll disagree with 3.  May has been a pretty good starter this year, and his peripherals indicate that he can be a well above average pitcher.  As of right now, I think he's in the pen till the end of the season, but I would be very disappointed if he isn't a starter in 2016 for what it's worth.  I agree that he could be a dominant back of the pen guy, and might even be able to be that guy down the stretch, but I think he has potential to be a #2 type guy in the rotation too, and that's far more valuable than a setup man. 

[ashbury]

Yeah, but my uneducated, way-too-easy, from-a-distance thought process goes way beyond a negotiation tactic.

 

I wonder if he tries as hard as he can to avoid the whole process.

"As hard as he can" and "whole" might be overstating it. But another way of saying my previous reply is that it sure looks like a Tell, which you picked up on.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case.  It's well documented that he didn't like negotiating contracts.  Granted this time around there's a bit more cash to go around making that job easier, but I think you have a point here about Ryan and negotiation.  It isn't his thing.  I think he does better when someone else is calling him asking about a guy.

[Platoon]

One of the "fallacies" of just sticking s guy in a lineup spot, and thinking his previous numbers will follow him is that they don't. When you are given the responsibility to hit 3 or 4 year you start thinking differently than you did at, in this case lead off, and as Ashbury said he will get pitched differently. Guys on first are going to get you low away breaking stuff, looking for the DP. This does not appear to be BD strength. One last example would be Hunter. A far more agressive hitter with men in scoring position. Is that a plus! Not if the guy hits his spots.

[TheLeviathan]

Ryan's aversions to contracts and trading make hi. Well suited to an assistant role but not as the primary GM, IMO.

[birddog]

Great article. I agree with all points including May in the pen for this year, but if he's one of the top 5 next spring, he starts. Right now Mauer has less pop than Escobar. It is scary how the outfield shift challenges him to pull the ball--but he can't. If he does, it is hit weakly toward second baseman. Granted they are pitching him away, but mistakes that are in are inside-outed to left. Should he be moved out of the #3? Definitely. Will he? Never under Gardy, but I hope Moli will soon see that it has to be done. Not sure if his bat speed is down or if his reaction time to read pitches has been affected by the concussions, but either way it does not add up to a #3 hitter any more.

 

 

[curt1965]

I think the answers will start to surface when the FO realizes this team is not going to be in the playoffs.

This team has big holes, including their lineup construction. I am a Mauer fan, but the reason he is hitting 3rd is that he WAS, repeat WAS, an elite hitter. But you just can't bat him there in a major league lineup now.And I don't know where he fits either.

I think this year was supposed to be one where TR and Mollie tried to find out who were candidates for the run in 2016, but May got everybody excited with a 21-9 record (or whatever). The starting pitching was crazy good, and all of a sudden we were talking post season.

But that was never going to happen with the bullpen and problems at catcher and SS. I believe Ryan felt that this wasn't the time to make a big push- there was just too much to accomplish- and like Chief said, I just don't think that making trades is his thing.

I'm not sure what to do about May. I would be OK to see him pitch in his current capacity this year, but I think he deserves a chance to start in 2016.

I love this thread, Chief. I think it covers much to what a lot of us have been thinking! Well done!