Is the farm system as deep as we thought?

[Boom Boom]

Twins are in free-fall mode. TR doesn't think that the minor league pitchers can help the woeful major league bullpen. Past Suzuki, there apparently isn't a single catcher anywhere in the system (I guess we have utility infielders catching in the minors or something). We have three starting shortstops, so we have zero starting shortstops.

 

And despite the all the hype over our prospects, I'm told that we can't match the trade packages other teams are offering. I understand not wanting to give up on Buxton, Sano, and Berrios, but it seems like we can't give away our second-tier prospects.

 

So... just how deep is the system, anyway?

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's still quite deep but not stellar. The problem is the Twins have graduated all their super prospects except one and I think he's on the untouchable list.

 

Also, Ryan doesn't like to trade prospects.

[JustinCB]

"Them" not "we." You wanna associate with this mess?

[Boom Boom]

"Them" not "we." You wanna associate with this mess?

I go back and forth on that.

 

When I want to be negative, I like to use "we" ironically.

[DaveW]

 

Also, Ryan doesn't like to trade prospects.

Pictured: TR with his prospects in their original packaging, talking trades with other GM's.

 

http://theswca.com/images-misc/RALPH3.JPG

[USAFChief]

A mile wide, and an inch deep.

 

I don't see a likely impact player anywhere, including Berrios.

[Jham]

 

I go back and forth on that.

When I want to be negative, I like to use "we" ironically.

 

The royal "we".

[DaveW]

 

Pictured: TR with his prospects in their original packaging, talking trades with other GM's.

 

http://theswca.com/images-misc/RALPH3.JPG

Pictured: (2012-2014) years later when Terry Ryan is left with all of those prospects he didn't trade years earlier.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

A mile wide, and an inch deep.

 

I don't see a likely impact player anywhere, including Berrios.

I disagree about Berrios but understand reluctance.

 

After Berrios, the next closest thing to an impact player is Thorpe, IMO. Shouldn't count out Gordon, either. He's putting together a nice season after a terrible start. Obviously, both are years away.

[HitInAPinch]

 

A mile wide, and an inch deep.

 

I don't see a likely impact player anywhere, including Berrios.

I think Berrios still has a chance.  He's been improving at AAA.  Sano, not sure why he was brought up.  He's in the majors and doing very well as a DH.  The only thing holding him back is someone hitting behind him that'll make the pitchers pay for walking him.

 

As for Buxton and the rest of them:  I'm not sure there's enough info to fully qualify all as not being impact players.  In baseball, many are chosen, few make it...

[RichardMcBeef]

A mile wide, and an inch deep.

Also the title of my least favorite adult film.

[mickeymental]

maybe the twins can swing a trade for florimon and guerra before the pirates leave town.

[Seth Stohs]

I think Kepler fits into the Buxton, Sano, Berrios list of untouchables, and he should. Polanco would if he could play SS. Gordon is untouchable at this point. 

 

With Buxton and Sano up, that's a big hit from the prospects lists. It puts them more in the middle of the pack. They did have six guys show up in the mlb.com Top 100, so they're fine.

 

I also think they do have good depth in various places. I mean that in terms of guys who will make the big leagues and be solid to good, not superstars. That's a good thing.

[USAFChief]

I disagree about Berrios but understand reluctance.

After Berrios, the next closest thing to an impact player is Thorpe, IMO. Shouldn't count out Gordon, either. He's putting together a nice season after a terrible start. Obviously, both are years away.

Possible, sure.

 

But past Sano, and then Buxton, I don't think anything is probable. Berrios will pitch in the majors, but be a top starter? I hope so, but I'd bet against it.

 

They'll get players to the big leagues, but there's no trick to that.

[Tibs]

The Twins have 6 top 100 prospects according to MLB.com (including Buxton and Sano). The rest of the AL Central has 7 combined.

[Kwak]

The value of a farm system is the number of "impact" players, and are any at difficult to fill positions.  Teams are built around "impact" players, the rest basically complement or simply "fill-in".  There was ample reason to project Sano and Buxton in the "impact" group--others are going to have to do more  to reach that level.  Somebody at Class A is not in that group--they are "hopes".  Please compare one of the Class A pitchers to Berrios--then compare Berrios to Sano.  Clearly there are differences.  Sano is a guy [so far] a team can be built around, and the rest will complement him.  Berrios--no, not at that level.  Those two can't be evaluated equally.

[bird]

 

A mile wide, and an inch deep.

 

I don't see a likely impact player anywhere, including Berrios.

 

 

So, tell me the truth, Chief. Did you see Dozier as an impact player? Do you regard Plouffe as an impact player? We don't have a crystal ball, so I can't tell you if the system is wide or deep quite frankly, but writers of rankings, even with Sano and Buxton removed, still think the system is at least marginally above average. I wouldn't venture a guess as to which prospects are going to be impactful in the way that say Dozier or even Plouffe are, but I'd love to put some dough on the line that there are at least a half-dozen prospects in the system that will ultimately be that impactful. Even without Sano and Buxton, it's probably the best talent pipeline in the division. But sure, I don't see another "sure thing" either past Sano and Buxton.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Possible, sure.

But past Sano, and then Buxton, I don't think anything is probable. Berrios will pitch in the majors, but be a top starter? I hope so, but I'd bet against it.

They'll get players to the big leagues, but there's no trick to that.

 

Yeah, anyone can do it... 

[ScrapTheNickname]

Max Kepler, 22.5 years old, has really put it together this year at AA.

 

.330/.412/.516/.929

 

I agree with Seth that he's untouchable. I hope to see him in a Twins uniform soon. Start the evaluation at the MLB level next year, I suspect.

[DaveW]

I think a more accurate and relevant look at a teams "future" is looking at their players that are 25 or younger.

 

With Rosario/Sano/Buxton all graduating the sytem, the "farm" is prob in the 8-12 range overall. However when you look at the 25 and under on the team overall (MLB and minor leagues) the Twins are probably in the top 3 or 4 with the Cubs and Astros overall.

[Rosterman]

Aren't there like 20 pitchers that could have an impact on the Twins roster in just the next three years? Think about that when a team has traded 2-3 low-level pitching prospects. There's no room at the inn for everyone. Outfield could be pretty cluttered, too. Considering we don't need any infielders except at shortstop for at least three mroe seasons, there are some names, there, that have potential and still leave us with some suitable backup. Catching we have no breakout candidate, but we have a couple of solid defensemen who might jsut bat well enough (or Suzuki enough). And tehre's another dozen guys on the current 40-man roster that msut have some worth...because they are there!

[Boom Boom]

I think there's a big difference between having a few really good prospects and having a deep system.

 

Take the bullpen (please)... one would like to think that a deep farm system would be able to at least plug some holes out there. Instead we're stuck with declining vets like Fien and Duensing, guys on hope-and-prayer comeback tours like Boyer, and, inexplicably, a guy who's certainly one of the best four starters on the roster.

[savvyspy]

I am starting to wonder the same thing but I'm trying to stay positive.

 

Realistically I think Meyer is a solid MLB bullpen arm and part of the future. The team needs to let go of him ever being a starter.

 

I think Tonkin needs to be up for good. You have to stop yo-yoing him back and forth. He's proven to be better than 2/3rds of your bullpen as it is. I think he's part of the solution.

 

Barrios probably is a number 3 starter in the majors along the lines of Gibson.

 

Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler are legit MLB talents.

 

Its too early to know early if Burdi, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Adam Walker, and Gordon can't be MLB players.

 

Beyond that you have a bunch of guys that could contribute.

 

Basically, I don't know if that makes them Top 5 after graduating Sano and Rosario and Stewart falling off but they are still probably in the top 10-12 which is pretty good.

[bird]

 

I think there's a big difference between having a few really good prospects and having a deep system.

Take the bullpen (please)... one would like to think that a deep farm system would be able to at least plug some holes out there. Instead we're stuck with declining vets like Fien and Duensing, guys on hope-and-prayer comeback tours like Boyer, and, inexplicably, a guy who's certainly one of the best four starters on the roster.

 

 

The depth in pitching prospects is real. However, that depth hasn't risen to AAA yet, which is the major disappointment right now. A year ago progress was impeded by a slew of injuries to many promising pitching prospects. Bard, Melotakis, Romero, Williams, Landa, Jorge, Chargois, Cedaroth, and Thorpe were all included in rankings of our top 25 prospects. This year, some of our most visible pitching prospects have simply not performed as expected or hoped, especially Burdi, Tonkin, Reed, Meyer, and Jones.

 

So that's 14 prospects, none of whom have been written off by professional observers. It seems to me that this is very high-quality depth. There's a longer list of real pitching prospects who are performing well, but again, most of those guys are at AA or below.

 

Broken record here, I know... 

 

 

[beckmt]

Depth is much better than most other systems. Next year will tell. Kepler should finish the outfield and Twins still have a number of pitching prospects just further away. They need to move some (Rogers, Duffy) to the bullpen to help. Others are wait and see. Longer term prospect A+ and lower are hard to project, but some will help. It is more wait and see.

[kab21]

The Twins farm system has 2 elite talents and 1 other top prospect that many want to declare off limits.  After that there are prospects that are trending down (Meyer, Stewart, Thorpe and even Gordon until recently) or prospects that are viewed with skepticism (ABW, Gonsalves, Hu, Duffey etc...).  It is kind of tough to make a high profile trade when you declare your top 3 off limits and the remainder are struggling or not convincing people that they can become a top 50 prospect.  If you are going to make a big trade you need to be willing to part with top 100 (and more likely top 50) prospects. 

 

Two prospects fall outside of this grouping although there might be some skepticism regarding them.  Kepler is looking really interesting but some are putting him into the untouchable list (difficult to make a trade with untouchables).  Polanco just keeps producing but he doesn't get recognition nationally and is just barely cracking top 100 lists.

 

Addressing the other concern.  Why can't the Twins call up a player to fill hole (catcher or RP)?  No farm system is stacked at every position. The Twins have already used the farm system to plug a hole in CF (Hicks), LF (Rosario), DH (Sano), SP/RP (May) and RP (Graham - Rule V).  This is a pretty good payback from a farm system in one season.

[Winston Smith]

"A bird in the hand," is yours, and it's not going anywhere unless you let it go. But if you leave it and go for "two in the bush," there is no guarantee you'll catch them, you might end up with nothing in the end.

 

I'll take the proven major league player, you never know what those birds in the bush will do.

[Shaitan]

"Free fall"=4 game losing streak.

 

Besides, I thought the site consensus since the winning started was that this is, at best, a .500 team. Ride it out.

[drjim]

I think the system has one elite untouchable, one near untouchable, some solid prospects that have value, and a lot of depth of C+/C guys.

 

Another thing the Twins have are young guys on the mlb roster that have good value - much, much more than any of the previous 4 years.

 

Twins have the pieces to get good rentals and good guys with lots of money (Tulo), that isn't the issue. The issue is whether they want to pay the prospect price.

[bird]

 

I think the system has one elite untouchable, one near untouchable, some solid prospects that have value, and a lot of depth of C+/C guys.

 

Another thing the Twins have are young guys on the mlb roster that have good value - much, much more than any of the previous 4 years.

 

Twins have the pieces to get good rentals and good guys with lots of money (Tulo), that isn't the issue. The issue is whether they want to pay the prospect price.

  I think you hit it on the screws, doc. This is just me, but I really have my doubts that even a shut-down 8th inning guy would be enough to hold on to a WC berth. Feels like a seller's market to me, and the comments from the writers appear to be skewed toward saying the sellers are fleecing the buyers right now. The Cards just traded their third-best prospect for Brandon Moss. Think of what Plouffe's value might be in comparison. I rest my case.