Bullpen woes

[stringer bell]

The Twins currently have a seven-man bullpen, but really it is less than that. Included in the seven pitchers are Rule 5 pick JR Graham, who hasn't been used in high-leverage situations since April and Trevor May, who is a "starter-in-waiting", not really considered an option when the game is on the line.

 

That leaves closer Glen Perkins and four other guys to be used when the game is on the line. Lefty Brian Duensing has put together a real nice month after being dreadful and injured for the first two and a half months. Ryan O'Rourke was recalled to be a lefty specialist, but has fared well against all hitters in a real small sample size. The right handers have floundered at mid-season. Casey Fien has struggled in the last three weeks. He's allowed five homers in 28 innings and while his WHIP is pretty good, his ERA has ballooned to 4.45. Blane Boyer has also come down to earth. After a nice run from mid-April to early June, he has slid to where he can't be considered close to reliable. Boyer has a low strike out rate (<4.5 per 9) and has allowed the first batter he has faced to reach something like 11 of his last 15 appearances. Boyer's WHIP now sits at 1.31. 

 

This is all evidence that the Twins need to add bullpen arms. After considering this matter for a while, I am convinced that the only way they get significant help is by trade. Struggles by members of the bullpen have existed all year and a couple were replaced (Ryan Pressly is injured). Only Boyer and Fien have been consistently trusted to pitch the eighth in a close game, if someone from the organization hasn't been promoted and given that opportunity up to now, it is very doubtful that the manager would  resort to someone in the system this late in the season with the team in contention.

 

IMHO, there are only two avenues to better relief pitching in high leverage late-inning situations: 1) the current guys must improve or 2) someone needs to be brought in to pitch in those situations. I think Option 1 is dubious at best and the right guy(s) need to be brought in if Option 2 is to work.

[USAFChief]

Concur, but I'd go so far as to say this has been an identifiable problem since the Twins became relevant, in early to mid May.

 

For whatever reason, TR has virtually ignored the problem, and it has cost them. Perhaps not as much as it should have, but it has cost them.

 

There should have been an effort to bolster the pen a long time ago, IMO.

[Rosterman]

I'm not sure why the closer at Rochester isn't given another opportunity - AJ Achter. If nothing else, I would love to see Oliveros and his hard-throwing also get anotehr chance. Fien is done. Jared Burton 2015. Too abd you waited to long to flip him for something. Boyer is a luxury you have to question...now.He worked his butt of, but has he lost steam. Use May, anytime you need more than an inning. Why the sudden love for Duensing, who ahs been peforming, but still......

[stringer bell]

My point, perhaps poorly made, was that the Twins have had over half a season to bolster the 'pen from within, with the biggest move so far being ???? I guess Pressly is pretty established if he can fully recover from his injury. Otherwise, there are two fading and flailing right handers, two lefties currently performing well over their heads and two guys who won't get a sniff in any game where the outcome isn't 90% settled.

 

If the front office and Molitor don't trust May pitching late, why would they trust Oliveros, Achter, Rogers, Duffey, Meyer, or anyone on the AA roster? They pretty much have to go outside the organization and I would go for quality like Clippard or Will Smith rather than patches.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I was just thinking the same thing as you. Basically the Twins have gone from an 8 man bullpen to a 5 man bullpen the past few weeks.

 

Duensing has been good since they started giving him multiple days off between appearances. Maybe they are picking his spots more wisely, or discovered that by accident. They gave Tonkin plenty of chances. Oliveros is off the 40 man, so I don't expect to see him at all, ever. Pressly was called up. Stauffer was finally cut. I believe the Twins feel they are already being proactive about their bullpen.

 

I expect they will give Option 1 every effort to succeed. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. The 8th inning set up role will be whoever is the "hot hand" between Boyer and Fein, and hopefully Molitor can get creative again trying to make that work. There's nothing stopping Molitor from giving May a couple chances in that role, however.

[Boone]

At this point, it seems clear that option 2 is the solution.  In my opinion, there are two steps:

 

1.  Trade for one, quality arm to be a set-up man.  Trevor May has certainly done enough to earn a spot in the Twins rotation for next year, if not the stretch run.  With 6 legitimate starters, the Twins should work themselves into a 3-team trade (giving up either Pelfrey or Milone) to acquire a quality bullpen arm.  Hopefully, this could give them a legitimate set-up man to shore up the 8th inning.

 

2.  Bring up an arm, or two, from AAA.  O'Rourke has shown--thus far--that this is a legitimate option.  Tonkin has struggled in the majors, but he has a 1.52 ERA and a 34:4 K:BB ratio in 23.2 IP at Rochester this year.  Those are spectacular numbers.  I think with  an extended run at the ML level he would be fine.  Achter and Oliveros are also intriguing numbers.  The Twins could also shut-down Duffey or Berrios as starters early to be 1-inning arms for the stretch-run.  

 

This course of action should be able to add 2 quality arms to the bullpen.  Combined with Perkins and 2 great LOOGY options, this would be a solid bullpen for the Twins during the stretch-run.

[Shaitan]

I'm nitpicking on phrasing here, but in an era of defined bullpen roles, few teams have more than 1-2 arms they use in the 8th inning. The real problem is that the Twins 8th inning arms are really 7th inning arms.

 

Any options from within are going to be 6th-7th inning arms as well either because they're rookies or because of their "talent ceiling" so, yes, trade.

 

Bullpen pieces are often cheap, like an high A-baller or PTBNL, but they're also a crapshoot. Fuentes was perfect for the Twins in '10, but BP arms also tend to be streaky. I think they should upgrade, but I do wonder if Fien/Boyer could get hot again and it evens out. Odds of Boyer having 2 hot streaks, however, seems unlikely given his career.

 

[jimbo92107]

Terry Ryan is understandably reluctant to trade young guys from the Twins' very good farm system for short term rentals in situations that can be handled with local talent.

 

As you guys said, Casey Fien, Blaine Boyer and Brian Duensing appear worn out, so it's time to try some fresher arms. My guess is they're looking at Michael Tonkin, Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers. Going with my earlier posts, this season should still be considered a time for experimenting with rookies and other promising call-ups. It's early enough for these new guys to struggle, then find their game.

 

JR Graham is the biggest mystery. Is he injured? If not, why not use him more? He's got the best power arm in the pen, a great slider, and every time I've seen him he's had electric stuff. His command has gotten better, and he seems confident now.

 

Trevor May has done great so far, taking his move to the pen as an opportunity to work on holding runners better from the set. Everything May does reminds me of the constructive ambition of Brian Dozier. He's building himself into a better pitcher.

 

Sadly, Glenn Perkins has finally collapsed. Stick a fork in him. ;-)

[drjim]

 

Concur, but I'd go so far as to say this has been an identifiable problem since the Twins became relevant, in early to mid May.

For whatever reason, TR has virtually ignored the problem, and it has cost them. Perhaps not as much as it should have, but it has cost them.

There should have been an effort to bolster the pen a long time ago, IMO.

 

There hasn't been a significant reliever switch teams yet. You can't trade for a player that doesn't exist.

 

But on the bigger point I agree, they will need to make a trade if they want to improve. Meyer was the only hope for an impact arm from the minors and he flopped.

[Mike Sixel]

I say they just keep doing what they have been. They are 9 games over....

[Lonestar]

J.R. Graham has been an ideal Rule 5 pick, showing long-term upside with a mid-90s fastball and proving useful in the short term when spotted in low-leverage situations. Sixteen pitchers have 10 or more innings for the Twins this year and Graham is the only one with an average fastball above 95 mph. Home runs have been an issue and Graham's command comes and goes, but remove one disastrous May 14 outing from his season totals and he has a 1.85 ERA in 39 innings.

 

http://aarongleeman.com/2015/07/16/reviewing-the-twins-first-half-pitchers-3/

Use Graham. May would be good as a reliever, but he is likely our 2nd best starter.

 

Tonkin and a healthy Oliveros are better than Achter and Pressly.  I think they are better than Fien and Boyer.  Duffey and Berrios should be considered.

 

Get rid of Fien, Boyer, and Pelfrey. Put Duensing on a short leash.

 

My two cents worth.

 

 

[DaveW]

I'm not sure how May is the 2nd best starter.

 

I'd rank them currently as:

Gibson

Santana

Hughes

May

Milone

pelfrey

nolasco

[DaveW]

Use Graham. May would be good as a reliever, but he is likely our 2nd best starter.

 

Tonkin and a healthy Oliveros are better than Achter and Pressly. I think they are better than Fien and Boyer. Duffey and Berrios should be considered.

 

Get rid of Fien, Boyer, and Pelfrey. Put Duensing on a short leash.

 

My two cents worth.

I think changes should be made, but Tonkin has had a ton of chances and has done zilch in the majors to earn and keep a spot in the pen. Meyer really **** the bed, he had the perfect opportunity to come in and be that hard throwing 8th inning guy for this team in 2015 and instead he blew it. It's too early to close the book on Meyer, but as it stands now he looks like the most dissapointing Twins pitching prospect since Sean Bergman and Adam Johnson.

[jorgenswest]

This must Tonkin's last option year. If he isn't good enough to help a team desperate for relief help, he has absolutely no trade value. Any team acquiring him has no time to develop him.

[drjim]

 

Use Graham. May would be good as a reliever, but he is likely our 2nd best starter.

 

Tonkin and a healthy Oliveros are better than Achter and Pressly.  I think they are better than Fien and Boyer.  Duffey and Berrios should be considered.

 

Get rid of Fien, Boyer, and Pelfrey. Put Duensing on a short leash.

 

My two cents worth.

 

I think you are underselling Pressly. He's better than the others you mentioned.

[jun]

 

Use Graham. May would be good as a reliever, but he is likely our 2nd best starter.

 

Tonkin and a healthy Oliveros are better than Achter and Pressly.  I think they are better than Fien and Boyer.  Duffey and Berrios should be considered.

 

Get rid of Fien, Boyer, and Pelfrey. Put Duensing on a short leash.

 

My two cents worth.

I think May is not our 2nd best starter.

I don't believe Tonkin and a healthy Oliveros are better than Achter and Pressly. I am not sure if they are better than Fien and Boyer. Duffey and Berrios are still starters now.

[jun]

 

I'm not sure how May is the 2nd best starter.

I'd rank them currently as:
Gibson
Santana
Hughes
May
Milone
pelfrey
nolasco

May might not be better than Milone or Pelfrey. He certainly has stuff and has improved this season.

[Rosterman]

Who is better, who is worse. Who has an unside? Who has a downside?