Who is the next Twins phenom?

[howieramone2]

Sadly, I don't believe there is one "phenom" in the system after Sano, Buxton, Berrios. I wouldn't call Rossario, Arcia, Santana, Vargas, or Walker phenoms by any stretch. They are "guys." They might end up as decent regulars even, but still likely just "guys" that are part of the puzzle. Being part of the puzzle on a winning club is pretty good though. 

 

Maybe Polanco offers MLB star possibility as a 2B, but that spot is taken, and his defense is said to be pretty poor at SS. I don't see many of the bats left in the minors as guys that will be likely playing in an all-star game though. Even Buxton and Sano might not be regular all-stars, even if they end up being good players for us. I think they both will eventually, but certainly no guarantee there. Sano will have more competition if he isn't at 3B, and a lot of Buxton's value is with the glove.

 

Maybe Kepler can be Christian Yelich type of talent LF player, which is really good, but not an all-star or "phenom." But, if he isn't playing LF, I don't see him being great compared to other MLB guys. 

 

Pitcher-wise, Berrios could be our best bet to be a legit top #1-#2 SP. After that I would say Hu and Thorpe have the best realistic outside chances to be legit #1-#2 SP's. Gonsalves has a shot, but I am less sure his stuff plays up as he continues to rise, although I do think he could be a GOOD backend of the staff starter, which is nice. GOOD backend starter is not the same as a someone who just happens to be your #4 or #5 SP though, like crap we were throwing out there as our backend the past several seasons.

 

Nothing at all about Stewart screams "phenom." Low ERA's in the minors are not indicative toward future success. There are numerous dudes in the minors right now with great ERA's- many. Most won't amount to much. He is currently 62nd out of 65 SP's with at least 50 innings pitched in K% in the Florida Sate League. You can point to his 3.28 ERA, but again here this ranks 36th out of 65 SP's in the league, and 4th on his own team. You have to pitch pretty poorly to Not be a sub-4.00 ERA SP in the Florida State League. He could be a good backend SP and a Gibson clone, which would be great, but likely his ceiling. 

 

I still believe that Meyer could be an elite RP.

 

After that, nothing screams future all-stars in our system. Several guys that could be good MLB pieces, but very few all-star potential guys. That is not an insult to our system either. I like our system, just being realistic. Very excited about the young talent that we have though. Not a lot of super stars or studs, but collectively good pieces that could keep us competing in the upcoming years.

No

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

No

 

Although I enjoy this type of response, could you further elaborate what you are "No'ing" me for? It was not like I was bashing the guy or saying he won't amount to anything at all. I was just using data and comparison to show that his results have been pretty average (ERA) to poor (K%) compared to other SP's in the league and his own teammates.

 

Also, comparing him to Gibson is not exactly an insult. Gibson, when he isn't striking guys out, is a good backend SP. Gibson, when he is striking guys out (like this past 3 starts or so), is front end rotation type of material. 

 

So, are you disagreeing with me that his numbers have been very "meh" compared to the rest of the FSL, or that Gibson is not a good comparison? 

 

Another "No", is an acceptable answer. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see any positional phenoms in the system. Hu and Thorpe have the best chances of reaching that status from the pitching side of things (I'm particularly bullish on Thorpe).

[jimbo92107]

 

For me, there is a difference between phenom and stud.  Stud is an all-star, even a borderline MVP-type player.  A phenom is a generational talent, a guy who has a legitimate shot at the HOF, a guy grandpas will tell their grandkids about seeing play. 

Great definition to frame the discussion. I'd say a stud is a guy that might make an all-star team at some point in his career, but not a perennial one. Brian Dozier is a great example of a guy that has made himself into a stud, made his first all-star team, and now we're wondering if he'll be back on a regular basis, which could wind up as a HOF career. But who would have called that outcome three years ago? Nobody, not even when I predicted he had a chance to be a Punto/Pedroia hybrid. I did NOT see his power going up to this elite level.

 

By Cap'n's criteria, the Twins have an impressive number of potential studs in their organization, but at the moment I don't see anybody with the same level of magnesium flare brightness as we were seeing in Buxton and Sano.

 

For instance, AB Walker could be a stud home run hitter, but he strikes out too much, and reportedly his defense is not stellar. Polanco probably could step in right now as a starting SS or 2B, but he's not proven to be better than Santana, and certainly not better than Dozier. Future stud maybe, but not elite.

 

Kepler is developing into an all-around stud, possibly the fourth outfielder for the next decade. Could he develop power like Dozier did? Who knows. But unless he starts knocking balls over the wall like Walker or hitting nearly .400, that's not a phenom, and I haven't heard that he's elite defensively. However, if he's as determined and smart as Dozier, look out.

 

Burdi is another possible stud closer with elite velocity. Let me know when he stops walking people after his demotion to high A. He needs to be more like Perkins, study how the great ones do it. Learn to pick all four corners at 100mph. Future stud, maybe.

 

The most impressive ERA right now is Brandon Peterson in Chattanooga. HOF? A bit early for that. Future stud, quite possibly. Do relievers not named Rivera even count?

 

Of the guys drafted/acquired to be studs (Meyer, Berrios, Stewart), Berrios seems the odds-on favorite to succeed, but there's no way to predict how his stuff will pan out against major leaguers. We'll see sometime this year. Meyer flamed out in two very rough, awkward appearances in the first half. He's got loads of work to do on his mechanics. Did he not play any other sports? He looks practically clumsy out there. Kohl Stewart is at the other end of the athlete spectrum, but he still appears a long way from being a great pitcher. If we could do a little head-swapping, put Berrios's head on Stewart's body...

 

The underlying question about studs and phenoms is, can a team without a bunch of HOF players win a Series? Of course, the Twins did it, mostly with studs, not phenoms. Some guys are long-term studs like Torii Hunter, that never quite reach phenom heights in home runs, but otherwise could easily help a team win a Series or three. Others like Kirby Puckett do HOF things, but their careers are too short to reach the Hall. The Twins won a couple Series(zez) with a good group of studs that played their best ball when it counted.

 

The Twins have several guys in the minors that might become studs or even long-term studs. Beyond that, guys like Wander Javier have a lot of proving to do. Meanwhile the mlb club appears to be stocking up on a lot of stud-or-better players, including a starting rotation of all stud or nearly stud level. Things are certainly trending in a good direction.

 

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

 

2. Meyer.  Get the kid a pitching coach, please.

 No doubt. Neil Allen appears to be have a huge impact on our pitching corps. I would like for Meyer to have more of an opportunity to work with him in the big league pen.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

If Stewart is still a top 100 prospect next year, he'll be lucky. He's a phenom they way Nick Blackburn was a phenom.

The last truly elite prospect to get a call up by the Twins was Matt Garza in 2007
. After Berrios, we might have to wait awhile.

This is what BA Midseason Top 10 had to say about Berrios and Stewart:

 

2. Jose Berrios, rhp

Berrios earned a promotion to Triple-A after averaging 9.13 strikeouts per 9 IP at Double-A. He’s got 95-96 mph when he wants it, sinks his fastball at lower velocity, and mixes in his slider and changeup well. His long arm action leads to inconsistencies but he throws enough strikes to be a starter.

 

6. Kohl Stewart, rhp

Drafted as a power pitcher, Stewart still is throwing hard, but he’s become a groundball pitcher as a pro, rather than getting lots of swings and misses. In his second full season, he’d allowed only one homer and had a healthy groundball rate (more than 2-to-1).

 

So don't write off Stewart just yet, he might not be the 9 K/IP that once was thought but he's turning into much more of a pitcher than just thrower

[Bob Sacamento]

 

 

 No doubt. Neil Allen appears to be have a huge impact on our pitching corps. I would like for Meyer to have more of an opportunity to work with him in the big league pen.

True, most of the spring, Meyer was working with pitching coach Eric Rasmussen on his finer points and playing around with a splitfinger and working on his change

[jokin]

 

True, most of the spring, Meyer was working with pitching coach Eric Rasmussen on his finer points and playing around with a splitfinger and working on his change

 

What?  A guy already struggling with his mechanics was also asked to try to add in a new pitch, with a tricky grip, besides?  That's usually something done to salvage a guy's career, not a good sign on the surface.

[nicksaviking]

 

So don't write off Stewart just yet, he might not be the 9 K/IP that once was thought but he's turning into much more of a pitcher than just thrower

Those kind of pitchers aren't phenoms. Phenoms can can strikeout a modest amount of batters without even trying. The "pitcher not a thrower" describes Baxendale, Rodgers and Slegers too, they're not phenoms.

[Jham]

 

What?  A guy already struggling with his mechanics was also asked to try to add in a new pitch, with a tricky grip, besides?  That's usually something done to salvage a guy's career, not a good sign on the surface.

 

Plus isn't that what Eddie Guardado is for (splitter)?  According to Pelf anyway...  Of course, May credited someone altogether less popular for his turn around, Rick Anderson.  So maybe pitching to contact does work if you mix in more change ups and have better overall talent?   Of course, Meyer seems to be struggling with both walks and contact...  Now that I think more about it, I think Arcia could end up being as good a hitter as say Carlos Gomez who was himself a phenom.  I still feel Arcia will figure things out eventually both as a hitter and fielder. 

[drjim]

What? A guy already struggling with his mechanics was also asked to try to add in a new pitch, with a tricky grip, besides? That's usually something done to salvage a guy's career, not a good sign on the surface.

He needed some sort of changeup if he was going to be a starter and the other grip wasn't working. Maybe he has big hands so it was worth a shot?

[jokin]

 

Plus isn't that what Eddie Guardado is for (splitter)?  According to Pelf anyway...  Of course, May credited someone altogether less popular for his turn around, Rick Anderson.  So maybe pitching to contact does work if you mix in more change ups and have better overall talent?   Of course, Meyer seems to be struggling with both walks and contact...  Now that I think more about it, I think Arcia could end up being as good a hitter as say Carlos Gomez who was himself a phenom.  I still feel Arcia will figure things out eventually both as a hitter and fielder. 

 

Guys should be coached to their strengths.  Not sure what you mean for sure, but May doesn't have better overall talent than Meyer, but even with inferior stuff, he has adjusted well to the Twins coaching approach, lots of quotes from him in the minors on how he was incorporating the philosophy the Twins were instilling in him.  And it showed, his BB% has dropped incrementally every year from his last year with the Phils in 2012 (but his BB% also dropped year over year with the Phils from 2011 to 2012)-

 

and it really has dropped precipitously in 2015 under Neal Allen-

and  2014 in AAA was his breakout year statistically-

 

so it's hard to say for certain that his short time with Anderson was the most important aspect of his ascendancy.  

 

I like May alot, but I'm skeptical that he could ever be deserving of a phenom label, but Meyer still can, if he can get that 6'9" frame in synch with his natural ability.

[jokin]

 

He needed some sort of changeup if he was going to be a starter and the other grip wasn't working. Maybe he has big hands so it was worth a shot?

 

That makes a lot of sense, but not necessarily with a guy who was already having major mechanical malfunctions.  He was already showing some recurrent weakness/soreness issues with his shoulder, do the Twins really want to add further risk with his elbow?  

 

FWIW- "Worth a shot" sounds a little ominous.

[Jham]

 

Guys should be coached to their strengths.  Not sure what you mean for sure, but May doesn't have better overall talent than Meyer, but even with inferior stuff, he has adjusted well to the Twins coaching approach, lots of quotes from him in the minors on how he was incorporating the philosophy the Twins were instilling in him.  And it showed, his BB% has dropped incrementally every year from his last year with the Phils in 2012 (but his BB% also dropped year over year with the Phils from 2011 to 2012)-

 

and it really has dropped precipitously in 2015 under Neal Allen-

and  2014 in AAA was his breakout year statistically-

 

so it's hard to say for certain that his short time with Anderson was the most important aspect of his ascendancy.  

 

I like May alot, but I'm skeptical that he could ever be deserving of a phenom label, but Meyer still can, if he can get that 6'9" frame in synch with his natural ability.

 

On Meyer, my point was that the guy who maybe would have helped him the most, we might have driven out of town on the points of our pitchforks.  Allen has done a great job with the staff, but it would have been nice to see Anderson get a crack at Meyer.  Although he couldn't do much with Liriano.  

[drjim]

 

That makes a lot of sense, but not necessarily with a guy who was already having major mechanical malfunctions.  He was already showing some recurrent weakness/soreness issues with his shoulder, do the Twins really want to add further risk with his elbow?  

 

FWIW- "Worth a shot" sounds a little ominous.

 

From all accounts the development of his changeup coming into the year was a little ominous, so it's probably appropriate. But of course this is all speculation, "fooling around" could mean a handful of throws to see if it was comfortable and moving along quickly.

[curt1965]

He needed some sort of changeup if he was going to be a starter and the other grip wasn't working. Maybe he has big hands so it was worth a shot?

What he said. I could be wrong (I am sure someone has the stats), but in his major league appearances, everything appeared to be 'hard.' I remember Meyer saying last year how the change up had made him more effective and increased his strikeouts. Not his year. Couple the lack changing speeds with the utter lack of control, and magnify those with the fact that everything over the plate had been smoked, and you have a pitcher who is a long way from being a major league contributor.

I think he needs to go back to AA (like Vargas) to get some coaching and hopefully find his confidence. I'm not giving up on him, but IMHO he's a long way from helping the big club.

[howieramone2]

 

1. Polanco.  He should have been their starting SS already.

2. Meyer.  Get the kid a pitching coach, please.

TR has an offer on the table for Crash Davis. Remember how much Davis did for Ebby Calvin LaLoosh? Mike Freaking Pelfrey and Duensing to the Rays for Crash. Who hangs up first?

[HitInAPinch]

The player I'm interested in is Walker.  Is he another [more powerful?] Sano?  I.E.  MLB pitchers are easier to hit because AA pitchers don't know where the ball is going. 

Just looking at his stats [overall, good] the enormous amount of K's lead me to believe he hasn't quite got it yet.  A Sept. MLB callup is possible.  Sano needs to give him a call, first

[John Kelsey]

If Walker were to be called up this year, I imagine his numbers would look similar to Domingo Santana's from last year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I.E.  MLB pitchers are easier to hit because AA pitchers don't know where the ball is going.

This... doesn't make sense.

[Squirrel]

 

This... doesn't make sense.

Maybe he was referring to a MLB pitcher's consistency over a AA pitcher's 'still learning and working on' consistency? That maybe you have more to hit, in a way? Not sure, but that's how I interpreted it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The player I'm interested in is Walker.  Is he another [more powerful?] Sano?  I.E.  MLB pitchers are easier to hit because AA pitchers don't know where the ball is going. 

Just looking at his stats [overall, good] the enormous amount of K's lead me to believe he hasn't quite got it yet.  A Sept. MLB callup is possible.  Sano needs to give him a call, first

 

I think both are 80 power.  Remember Sano is  younger.

[HitInAPinch]

 

This... doesn't make sense.

Major league pitchers get the ball over the plate more often than Minor league pitchers.  Minor league pitchers are wilder. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

If Walker were to be called up this year, I imagine his numbers would look similar to Domingo Santana's from last year. 

Ouch

[BoomBoom]

 

I think both are 80 power.  Remember Sano is  younger.

Sano is 22 and Walker is 23 - One played baseball year round and one grew up in the snow until April and played 3 sports.  Is your assumption that Walker played more baseball in his life, while being older?

Or is it that one year is a major difference in baseball?

 

 

 

 

 

[BoomBoom]

Eight is Enough - Do any of these swings on off speed pitches look like "All or Nothing" swings?

This kid has a chance.  Just needs to see more off speed pitches that are MLB worthy (AAA).  Again we are talking about a guy who is third in minor league baseball in extra base hits.  HRs are sexy, but he does hit doubles (21) and triples (2) too.  

 

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Love to hear announcers who have actually seen Walker play (for a series or two) comment.  I can't help but stay positive watching this.  A workable swing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sano is 22 and Walker is 23 - One played baseball year round and one grew up in the snow until April and played 3 sports.  Is your assumption that Walker played more baseball in his life, while being older?

Or is it that one year is a major difference in baseball?

 

For some reason I thought the age difference was bigger.  My assumption though is that age matters, especially in terms of developing power.  The older guy is going to have more of it naturally until that physical peak happens.   Walker has more home runs, but he's also a bit older.  And of course there's his problem with swinging at everything.  Sano let's a lot of pitches go by that Walker takes massive cuts at... sometimes he connects. 

[lightfoot789]

 

For some reason I thought the age difference was bigger.  My assumption though is that age matters, especially in terms of developing power.  The older guy is going to have more of it naturally until that physical peak happens.   Walker has more home runs, but he's also a bit older.  And of course there's his problem with swinging at everything.  Sano let's a lot of pitches go by that Walker takes massive cuts at... sometimes he connects. 

Walker does swing at some bad pitches but also looks at a lot of pitches too.  I never watch him and say he swings at everything.  I think he swings at a bad pitch per AB, but also goes 2-2 or 3-2 quite often.  Just never takes the walk once he gets to that count.