Trade Target Joaquin Benoit

[Platoon]

I don't know if this report is true, but I do know something that is. There is nothing as appealing to TR as an aging veteran! It's like dangling candy in front of a baby!

[LaBombo]

 

Capps wasn't awful in a Twins uni.

 

Capps was awful, and not just because of who they gave up for him and what eventually happened to the guy who supposedly made it ok to give up the guy they gave up for him.

 

Capps posted FIPs of 4.75 and 4.49 and K/9 rates to match them.  That's... dreadful, even for a middle reliever.

 

And when you consider that even mediocre closers accumulate WAR faster than the ice cream machine line accumulates obese diners at Old Country Buffet, his -0.4 and -0.1 season tallies tell a pretty ugly story to all but the most anti-WAR peaceniks.

 

 

Capps makes me hope that when Ryan steps down, he takes his successor out into the hall outside his office and tells him to listen to the picture on the wall of Matt Capps on the mound in a Twins uni.

 

"I don't hear anything", the new GM will say.

 

"Listen closer", Ryan will tell him.

 

And then, a haunting, barely audible whisper:

 

"Don't pay..."

 

New GM Guy leans in closer.

 

"Don't pay... for saves...".

 

[DaveW]

Yes in theory, you can trade for Benoit and bring up a AAA'er. But let's be honest, that won't happen. If we acquire a veteran RP, I guarantee that none of the AAA guys will be up until September (barring injury).

 

As for why so many are uninterested, Benoit's stats seem to strongly suggest he's on the edge of the cliff, and could fall over at any time.

And what stats would those be? His FIP is still fine and makes him one of the best options on the twins.

[jorgenswest]

i wonder how other old San Diego relievers have done switching to the AL.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/padres-preparing-for-active-creative-deadline.html

 

Not limited to such players, certainly, but they don't want to rebuild either. Likely AA or above.

That link doesn't address Benoit at all.  I expect it just means they don't want a bunch of low-level lotto tickets for Upton, Kennedy, Kimbrel, etc.  Not really an unusual stance to take.

 

A low-level lotto ticket might still be perfectly acceptable for a middle reliever, though.

[TheLeviathan]

 

i wonder how other old San Diego relievers have done switching to the AL.

 

He's been better in San Diego, but he was a capable AL reliever for most of his career.  

[drjim]

 

You can trade for Benoit and still bring up Acter, Oliveros etc. it's not like there is only one spot avail in the pen.

I don't see why so many are uninterested, he would easily be the 2nd best RP the twins have had in the last few seasonsx

 

I don't understand it either. Perfectly solid at the position of most need and really isn't going to cost much.

 

Best case for the internal guys mentioned won't match what Benoit can do.

[drjim]

 

Padres seem to want MLB-players or close to MLB-players.

 

I have no idea, but I would certainly ship Escobar and Travis Harrison if that is the kind of price they want.

 

You really underestimate Escobar's value. He should get more than half a year of a setup guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You really underestimate Escobar's value. He should get more than half a year of a setup guy.

Agreed, although it could be a year and a half of Benoit (team option for 2016).  Three and a half years of a decent utility infielder still probably trumps that, unless perhaps Benoit was still lights-out.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

And what stats would those be? His FIP is still fine and makes him one of the best options on the twins.

 

You're right, his FIP is definitely fine, if by fine you mean 100th out of 135 qualified relievers.  FYI, Aaron Thompson is 91st.

[Platoon]

Maybe to summarize! Some TD posters, like me, are just a little gun shy! I for one will be very relieved when Aug 1st rolls around, if we have not given up someone of the Polanco, Arcia, Kepler, or even Hicks ilk for some middling reliever. (Or two). Same more or less goes for a catcher, unless he's a very good one, with at least 3 seasons of control. There have been some very good analytical articles written about why it's so difficult to be a buyer this year, meaning there are no good deals to be had. I hope someone at 1 Twins Way has read them.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

He's been better in San Diego, but he was a capable AL reliever for most of his career.  

 

And Joe Mauer was a .400 OBP hitter for most of his career.  Things change as players get older.

[Mike Sixel]

He is not good now. Erase your memory of the good player, and compare to players now.......he does poorly in the comparison.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Benoit has out-performed his FIP significantly for three years running now.  Maybe he's just one of those guys?

[SwainZag]

 

And Joe Mauer was a .400 OBP hitter for most of his career.  Things change as players get older.

 

He is an experienced arm who has a long track record and strikes out almost 9 K/9.  While his low BABIP isn't sustainable, he has lost zero velocity on any of his pitches and XFIP is still below 4.  The only thing that is a little worrisome is his BB/9 is a little high, but then again it's a very SSS compared to his career.  If the damage wasn't much more than a C prospect and taking on the salary.....why not?

[jokin]

 

Just. Say. No. Try the internal guys first.

 

Yes.  But if we're talking trade, try getting younger guys first rather than trying to squeeze one more season out of aging hulks with expired sell by dates like Benoit.  Miami loves to make in-season trades, they're cooked for 2015 and Loria is probably itching to pick up the phone.  Either Carter Capps (age 24) and AJ Ramos (age 28), with at least 3 years of team control, could both be had if the Twins were willing to pick up another of the many bad contracts that the Marlins are stuck with, ie.... (Prado could help the Twins in multple roles ala Nunez, Dunn could be the LHRP they need, many other younger pitchers than Benoit to bolster the pen).  

 

Or the Twins could go more blockbuster, and get, along with Carter Capps and another bad contract, Adeiny Hechevarria to play SS OR Dee Gordon to play 2nd and move Dozier to SS-  Gordon might be pumped to play on a contender that also has his brother in the fold.  It would probably cost you Berrios and/or Kepler, among others, so no way Ryan would do it, but the Marlins have a history of making sweeping deals and throwing away a lot of talent- it wouldn't hurt to kick some Marlin tires.

 

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

He is an experienced arm who has a long track record and strikes out almost 9 K/9.  While his low BABIP isn't sustainable, he has lost zero velocity on any of his pitches and XFIP is still below 4.  The only thing that is a little worrisome is his BB/9 is a little high, but then again it's a very SSS compared to his career.  If the damage wasn't much more than a C prospect and taking on the salary.....why not?

 

Saying xFIP below 4 is a good thing is ridiculous.  Only 38 out of 135 qualified relievers have xFIP's over 4--he ranks 89th out of those 135 on xFIP, only marginally better than his FIP rank.  His velocity is also down, at least half a MPH, across the board.  His bb rate has increased every year since 2010, with last year being the sole outlier, which also suggests his current bb/9 rate is here to stay, and is not an oddity of SSS.

 

If we're targeting Padres' middle relievers, lets go after Shawn Kelley instead--better k rate, bb rate, FIP and xFIP, in addition to being much cheaper.  Or better yet, go with our in-house options that will most likely be at least as good as Benoit, if not better, and will not cost a prospect of any level.

[GCTF]

 

 Benoit 

Balls.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

And Joe Mauer was a .400 OBP hitter for most of his career.  Things change as players get older.

 

Fine, but that's not what the person I was responding to said.  We're not talking about a guy whose only success was in the league's best pitcher's park.

 

I'm fine with trying the young guys, but are any of you serious about calling up Achter and making him our 8th inning guy?  If the answer is no, then your complaints are really in the wrong spot.

[DaveW]

You're right, his FIP is definitely fine, if by fine you mean 100th out of 135 qualified relievers. FYI, Aaron Thompson is 91st.

with your Thompson example you have successfully shown why using FiP as an end all be all is the right answer.

 

He outperforms his FiP every year for the last 3 and puts up very good results. (Sub 3.00) most of his last 5 years (including this year)

 

The guy gets results and strikes out a good number of hitters. He instantly would be the twins 2nd best RP.

 

Assuming that Acter, Tonkin and Oliveros are going to step in and dominate is a recipe for disaster. As mentioned you can still bring them up and have plenty of room for Benoit.

Up

[DaveW]

Fine, but that's not what the person I was responding to said. We're not talking about a guy whose only success was in the league's best pitcher's park.

 

I'm fine with trying the young guys, but are any of you serious about calling up Achter and making him our 8th inning guy? If the answer is no, then your complaints are really in the wrong spot.

Yup!

Even if acter comes up and goes lights out as your 8th inning guy, Benoit still gives you some nice value as a 7th inning guy. If acter and Oliveros dominate then Benoit still gives you nice value as a 6th inning or depth guy. I do think he is instantly better then Fien, Boyer, Duensing and Graham. As mentioned plenty of room!

[jorgenswest]

Let's assume anyone valued by the Twins is also valued by the many other teams in contention. Let's also assume that it will take more than a C prospect or package of C prospects to get any player of value. Is he someone you would trade Walker or Gonsalves to acquire?

[DaveW]

Let's assume anyone valued by the Twins is also valued by the many other teams in contention. Let's also assume that it will take more than a C prospect or package of C prospects to get any player of value. Is he someone you would trade Walker or Gonsalves to acquire?

I don't think it would cost that much. Non elite players don't cost that much. Most teams in the market are looking for a "closer" and are focused in on clippard and papelbon. The twins have a shut down closer and really just need that 8th inning guy. Additionally he is owed another 5.5 million (including option) which the twins can afford (same amount they saved on Santana) while other teams may not have as much payroll flexibility.

 

Maybe a package with Pat Dean and Tonkin would get it done. That gives the Padres a little bit of upside with Dean who could be a solid back end guy (esp in petco) and a guy who has done well in AAA but may need a change of scenery. Both cost controlled and cheap.

 

The twins meanwhile likely wouldn't miss either of them as they are pretty far done in a very very very deep minor league depth chart.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Fine, but that's not what the person I was responding to said.  We're not talking about a guy whose only success was in the league's best pitcher's park.

 

I'm fine with trying the young guys, but are any of you serious about calling up Achter and making him our 8th inning guy?  If the answer is no, then your complaints are really in the wrong spot.

 

No, his only success was not when he was in the league's best pitcher's park, but his success outside of that park came when he was 32-34, not 37.  Hence the comment, using Mauer as an example, stating that just because someone WAS good doesn't mean he'll BE good.  I'd rather not burn a prospect and $5.5m to find out if he can continue to defy the fact that his peripherals suggest he's not as good as his "standard" numbers.

 

I'm not jumping for joy at the idea of making Achter/Oliveros/Tonkin our 8th inning guy, but I'd rather do that than make Benoit the 8th inning guy.  What I'd really like is to trade for someone better than either of those options, like Jason Grilli.  Owed about 2m this year, 3.5 next year, with a 3m option for 2017 (and only a .2m buyout).  Yes he's older, but his numbers are much better than Benoit (2.07 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 12k/9, 2.67 BB/9), and have been largely stable over the past few years while Benoit's are all in decline.  Offer Atlanta Taylor Rogers, and call it a day.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

with your Thompson example you have successfully shown why using FiP as an end all be all is the right answer.

He outperforms his FiP every year for the last 3 and puts up very good results. (Sub 3.00) most of his last 5 years (including this year)

The guy gets results and strikes out a good number of hitters. He instantly would be the twins 2nd best RP.

Assuming that Acter, Tonkin and Oliveros are going to step in and dominate is a recipe for disaster. As mentioned you can still bring them up and have plenty of room for Benoit.
Up

 

Dude, you're the one who said Benoit's FIP was fine; you introduced that stat.  If you think FIP isn't a good indicator, why say it shouldn't be a deterrent for adding Benoit?  If it is a good indicator, Benoit has pitched like Aaron Thompson, and just gotten lucky.

 

Nor do I think the AAA crew will step in and dominate.  But since the stats suggest Benoit is unlikely to continue dominating, it's sort of a wash there.  I also don't think TR is going to simultaneously trade for a veteran and bring up AAA guys.  I'd love it if he surprised me and cut loose Duensing and Fien, but I doubt that happens.  So, in a world where I can have either Benoit or a AAA guy, but not both, I choose the AAA guy.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No, his only success was not when he was in the league's best pitcher's park, but his success outside of that park came when he was 32-34, not 37.  Hence the comment, using Mauer as an example, stating that just because someone WAS good doesn't mean he'll BE good.  I'd rather not burn a prospect and $5.5m to find out if he can continue to defy the fact that his peripherals suggest he's not as good as his "standard" numbers.

 

I'm not jumping for joy at the idea of making Achter/Oliveros/Tonkin our 8th inning guy, but I'd rather do that than make Benoit the 8th inning guy.  What I'd really like is to trade for someone better than either of those options, like Jason Grilli.  Owed about 2m this year, 3.5 next year, with a 3m option for 2017 (and only a .2m buyout).  Yes he's older, but his numbers are much better than Benoit (2.07 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 12k/9, 2.67 BB/9), and have been largely stable over the past few years while Benoit's are all in decline.  Offer Atlanta Taylor Rogers, and call it a day.

 

Except I wasn't answering the question of "will he be good", I was answering "what has he done outside San Diego".  You took me out of context and are arguing a strawman.  

 

You've got a funny definition for "decline" also.  I understand worrying about his age and his performance away from San Diego, but he's been damn good for awhile by many measures.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Except I wasn't answering the question of "will he be good", I was answering "what has he done outside San Diego".  You took me out of context and are arguing a strawman.  

 

You've got a funny definition for "decline" also.  I understand worrying about his age and his performance away from San Diego, but he's been damn good for awhile by many measures.

 

Sure, but the essence of your argument was "don't worry that he's currently in Petco, he's been good outside of Petco too!"  A very salient point to that is that he is now older, and could be in his decline, which is what I was arguing.  As it turns out, the stats back that up.  His k/9 has gone from 11.19 5 years ago to 8.25 this year, which is a full k lower than at any point in the last 5 years.  His BB/9 has gone from 1.64 5 years ago to 3.25 this year, and with the exception of last year, has gone up every year since 2010.  His FIP and xFIP are both sharply up from where he's been the past 5 years, and the success he's having this year is being aided by a ludicrously unsustainable BABIP.  His velocity is down.  If he was 27, I'd say this could be a slump, or bad cluster luck.  But he's not 27; he's nearly 38, and Father Time is undefeated.

 

All of this rolls up into the larger argument which is, should the Twins try to acquire Benoit.  I say no, based on my belief, backed up by the stats above, that age is catching up to him, and I'd rather not pay in player(s) and money to be there when it does, especially when there is a reasonable case to be made that players currently controlled by the Twins could be just as good, if not better.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure, but the essence of your argument was "don't worry that he's currently in Petco, he's been good outside of Petco too!"  A very salient point to that is that he is now older, and could be in his decline, which is what I was arguing.  As it turns out, the stats back that up.  His k/9 has gone from 11.19 5 years ago to 8.25 this year, which is a full k lower than at any point in the last 5 years.  His BB/9 has gone from 1.64 5 years ago to 3.25 this year, and with the exception of last year, has gone up every year since 2010.  His FIP and xFIP are both sharply up from where he's been the past 5 years, and the success he's having this year is being aided by a ludicrously unsustainable BABIP.  His velocity is down.  If he was 27, I'd say this could be a slump, or bad cluster luck.  But he's not 27; he's nearly 38, and Father Time is undefeated.

 

All of this rolls up into the larger argument which is, should the Twins try to acquire Benoit.  I say no, based on my belief, backed up by the stats above, that age is catching up to him, and I'd rather not pay in player(s) and money to be there when it does, especially when there is a reasonable case to be made that players currently controlled by the Twins could be just as good, if not better.

 

I called him "capable" as a non-Padre.  I think that's a pretty fair adjective.

 

Now, as for your argument.  You cherry pick his career high from 5 years ago for SO/9, but his career rate is 8.9 and this year is 8.3.  That's hardly a major difference.  His career walk rate is 3.6 BB/9 and this year is 3.3.  His velocity charts don't indicate any significant trend.  And, yes, his BABIP is very low and indicates he may see a regression, but even a regression from him easily makes him our second best reliever.

 

I'm not going to continue this because if you cherry pick anyone's career year and compare it to a particular season you could argue he's "declining".  It's a really unfair way to make your argument.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I called him "capable" as a non-Padre.  I think that's a pretty fair adjective.

 

Now, as for your argument.  You cherry pick his career high from 5 years ago for SO/9, but his career rate is 8.9 and this year is 8.3.  That's hardly a major difference.  His career walk rate is 3.6 BB/9 and this year is 3.3.  His velocity charts don't indicate any significant trend.  And, yes, his BABIP is very low and indicates he may see a regression, but even a regression from him easily makes him our second best reliever.

 

I'm not going to continue this because if you cherry pick anyone's career year and compare it to a particular season you could argue he's "declining".  It's a really unfair way to make your argument.

 

Thing is, I'm not cherry-picking.  I used his numbers in 2010 as a reference point, and I took care to cover what has happened since then (k rate down from any year 2010-2014, bb rate steadily ascending every year except last from 2010, and now at it's worst since 2006).  Sure there's no trend on his velocity, but it is down, which would explain his declining stats, and given his age, is far more likely to become a trend than a mirage.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Thing is, I'm not cherry-picking.  I used his numbers in 2010 as a reference point, and I took care to cover what has happened since then (k rate down from any year 2010-2014, bb rate steadily ascending every year except last from 2010, and now at it's worst since 2006).  Sure there's no trend on his velocity, but it is down, which would explain his declining stats, and given his age, is far more likely to become a trend than a mirage.

 

The problem is you intentionally picked 2010 to get the answer you wanted.  If you picked 2011 there is suddenly no trend. (Or a VERY minimal one) He bounces around a bit and his numbers are down just a bit, but not any kind of significant decline.  

 

He has an unsustainable ERA and BABIP, that's true.  The rest of your argument is pretty bogus.