Article: The Twins $55 Million Question

[tobi0040]

 

Trades won't occur until the trade deadline approaches. IF the Twins are in a buying mood, I'd package two starters (Pelfrey, Milone and/or Gibson) for an ace. If we sell, sell Pelf for prospects. At any rate, make room for Berrios & company in 2016.

 

Quantity for quality never works. 

 

Imagine in 2005 or 2006 if the Twins would have traded Johan Santana for two of Gibson, Pelfrey, and/or Milone.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2015 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

 

5/100 isn't that bad.  In fact, given his age, present health, and performance, it's probably a selling point.  If Tulo was a FA today, he would blow that number away.

 

Not that I advocate a blockbuster trade for him, but he's still pretty good.

 

He usually starts out a month or two and then gets hurt. So I don't know about "present health".   He missed 110 games in 2012, 36 in 2013, and 71 last year.

 

But I guess I can't rule out some team giving him 5/100 as a free agent.

[strumdatjaguar]

Trade one or two of the current starters, preferably for a catcher for the present or the near future.  Open up some room in the rotation for Santana, Nolasco and maybe Berrios.  The Twins need to think ahead or they'll be in the position Oakland was last year, when they just put Tommy Milone on waivers.  I have to believe there are some teams in need of starting pitching.

Edited June 22, 2015 by strumdatjaguar

[Loosey]

 

I would be curious what Tulo's value would be though. I have a feeling this is one where is name recognition for fans exceeds the value teams would place on him (given his age, health, and contract). I agree wholeheartedly the package would be more than Gibson, Arcia, and prospects though.

 

He is almost 31 and owed 5 and $100M and has not played a full season since 2011. He has to be pretty close to sliding over to 3b as well.  

When he is healthy he is still one of the best shortstops in baseball.  I'm sure the Rockies would point that out in trade negotiations.  5/$100M would be ok for the next 2-3 years.  But $20m for his 34 and 35 years of age would be a killer and would most likely be right in the time the Twins will be solid contenders would like to spend some money.

[SwainZag]

 

5/100 isn't that bad.  In fact, given his age, present health, and performance, it's probably a selling point.  If Tulo was a FA today, he would blow that number away.

 

Not that I advocate a blockbuster trade for him, but he's still pretty good.

 

And I am guessing that team would immediately regret that decision.  As I have mentioned in other threads where "trade for Tulo" has come up:

 

2015 H/R splits:

H: .339/.373/.517

R: .277/.299/.438

 

Career H/R splits:

H:  .324/.396/.562

R:  .274/.346/.467/.813

 

He simply isn't the same player away from Coors Field.  Is he still an above average player? For sure.....but his overall statistics are mis-leading.  Add to the fact he is on the wrong side of 30, rarely stays healthy and is owed $20M per year for the next 5 years?  He wouldn't be worth the prospects, especially if we think that Polonco could be a serviceable ML shortstop in the next 1.5 years.

[Kwak]

 

Quantity for quality never works. 

 

Imagine in 2005 or 2006 if the Twins would have traded Johan Santana for two of Gibson, Pelfrey, and/or Milone.

As opposed to the actual Johan Santana trade?

[Steve Lein]

 

I mentioned in a couple other threads: I would trade Gibson, he is the one who can actually bring you some solid value back in return like C or SS help. Gibson+Arcia+A couple prospects  for Tulo?

 

That conversation still isn't started unless Buxton, Sano, or Berrios' name is included. No thanks.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

He is almost 31 and owed 5 and $100M and has not played a full season since 2011. He has to be pretty close to sliding over to 3b as well.  

 

Is that something this team would want then?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore.

I'm skeptical of Milone because he played all those games in Oakland, which may have influenced his stat line. He has an ERA of 2.98 in Oakland while his ERA for career away games (didn't feel like breaking it down further than that) is below league average at 4.33.

 

That doesn't mean he can't be just as good or better than the guys you listed, it just means I'm skeptical.

[drivlikejehu]

xFIP- by year:

 

Milone

2011 - 119

2012 - 97

2013 - 105

2014 - 120

2015 - 118

 

Santana

2011 - 97

2012 - 108

2013 - 93

2014 - 94

2015 - TBD

 

Not seeing the case for Milone. He put up #3 numbers for 2 seasons in Oakland, but from 2014 on he's been a 5th starter. Santana has been up and down but is clearly the superior pitcher.

 

I would take Nolasco over Milone, but it's a little trickier since Nolasco keeps getting hurt and has a long track record of under-performing his peripherals.

[jorgenswest]

 

I'm skeptical of Milone because he played all those games in Oakland, which may have influenced his stat line. He has an ERA of 2.98 in Oakland while his ERA for career away games (didn't feel like breaking it down further than that) is below league average at 4.33.

 

That doesn't mean he can't be just as good or better than the guys you listed, it just means I'm skeptical.

His ERA+ would have been adjusted for park and league. Otherwise he would have had a better number.

 

There is reason to be skeptical. Oakland traded him for a journeyman CF. Someone above commented he was waived but that was not correct. He was optioned after they acquired two very good starters.

 

There is also reason to be skeptical of Nolasco and Santana. Pitchers who are league average or worse through ages 26-31 rarely are very good ages 32-35.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/

 

My hope is that Santana earns a spot by dominating AAA or coming up and being lights out from the bullpen. The current starting 5 earned the chance to compete against him for their spot.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

His ERA+ would have been adjusted for park and league. Otherwise he would have had a better number.

 

There is reason to be skeptical. Oakland traded him for a journeyman CF. Someone above commented he was waived but that was not correct. He was optioned after they acquired two very good starters.

 

There is also reason to be skeptical of Nolasco and Santana. Pitchers who are league average or worse through ages 26-31 rarely are very good ages 32-35.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/

 

My hope is that Santana earns a spot by dominating AAA or coming up and being lights out from the bullpen. The current starting 5 earned the chance to compete against him for their spot.

I absolutely believe Milone should receive a legitimate chance to compete for a spot, particularly at the expense of Nolasco. We've seen enough Bad Ricky where it's time to make him earn a spot, not have one handed to him.

[tobi0040]

As opposed to the actual Johan Santana trade?

Gomez gets MVP votes.

[jorgenswest]

 

 

xFIP- by year:

 

Milone

2011 - 119

2012 - 97

2013 - 105

2014 - 120

2015 - 118

 

Santana

2011 - 97

2012 - 108

2013 - 93

2014 - 94

2015 - TBD

 

Not seeing the case for Milone. He put up #3 numbers for 2 seasons in Oakland, but from 2014 on he's been a 5th starter. Santana has been up and down but is clearly the superior pitcher.

 

I would take Nolasco over Milone, but it's a little trickier since Nolasco keeps getting hurt and has a long track record of under-performing his peripherals.

If you don't believe over 500 innings is enough to use their actual performance (adjusted for park and league) at least compare the peripherals as one sample. By season, there is no way to understand scale. For instance, isn't 2011 simply a September call up for Milone?

 

Santana needs to earn a spot. Very good performance two years ago and good peripherals with mediocre performance last year isn't enough. He needs to perform first.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know it's been mentioned here and there but I hadn't looked at the stats very closely in the past month.

 

Trevor May has turned into a really nice pitcher. 4.8 BB%, 21.0 K%, good for a 3.72 xFIP.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, no way I dump May.  He might be the best of both the Span and Revere trades... who wudda thought?

[Vanimal46]

I don't get the fascination of a 6 man rotation. Correct me if I'm wrong, but no MLB team has ever done that before, right? And we expect the Twins to implement a brand new concept? No chance.

 

Milone has had a couple of quality starts recently, but he's just a back end rotation pitcher at the end of the day. He's my first guess at who's out of the rotation. The other I believe will be a revolving door of Nolasco limping to and from the DL, and Hughes.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Vanimal46

[TheLeviathan]

 

I know it's been mentioned here and there but I hadn't looked at the stats very closely in the past month.

 

Trevor May has turned into a really nice pitcher. 4.8 BB%, 21.0 K%, good for a 3.72 xFIP.

 

If May is the one that loses his spot....I may lose my mind.

[drjim]

It will be Milone. Slops through some effective innings but clearly the 5th guy in the rotation right now.

[howeda7]

We're still two weeks out. Why worry about it yet? The Minnesota sports gods will provide as soon as they're done torturing Gopher Basketball and stalking Teddy Bridgewater.

[jorgenswest]

Anybody else paying attention to Santana's second start? I listened to the first. He wasn't very good, but was able to limit damage.

 

Tonight through 5

 

7 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout

 

Maybe his third start will be dominant. Is that enough to put him in the rotation? Not for me. Is he a given for the rotation? I hope he has to earn it. The 5 men that have worked their tails off without PEDs deserve it.

 

Edit: Solid innings 6,7 with no hits and 2 strike outs. Overall not a very encouraging performance with 9 base runners in first 5 innings. He should have been taken out after 4 but was on a pitch count and performance didn't matter. Needs to be lights out in his third start. Milone set that bar in Rochester.

Edited June 26, 2015 by jorgenswest

[jokin]

 

Anybody else paying attention to Santana's second start? I listened to the first. He wasn't very good, but was able to limit damage.

Tonight through 5

7 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout

Maybe his third start will be dominant. Is that enough to put him in the rotation? Not for me. Is he a given for the rotation? I hope he has to earn it. The 5 men that have worked their tails off without PEDs deserve it.

 

Not too impressive starting out. 7 IP, 2 HR, 7 hits, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 3 K . But he's finishing out strong, 97 pitches, 65 strikes.  And Pawtucket has Castillo and Victorino batting 1-2, with 6 major leaguer-experienced guys batting 1 through 6.

 

The Twins will start him on July 5, whether we approve or not. 

[jorgenswest]

Not too impressive starting out. 7 IP, 2 HR, 7 hits, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 3 K . But he's finishing out strong, 97 pitches, 65 strikes. And Pawtucket has Castillo and Victorino batting 1-2, with 6 major leaguer-experienced guys batting 1 through 6.

 

The Twins will start him on July 5, whether we approve or not.

 

Do the Twins care about winning? Do they care about earning a job by performing?

 

I listened again tonight. He was good innings 6 and 7. That isn't good enough. He was able to get out of jams in the first 5 innings against some mediocre hitters. He needs to be a lot better. Try have taken him out for Darnell.

Edited June 26, 2015 by jorgenswest

[jokin]

 

Do the Twins care about winning? Do they care about earning a job by performing?

 

I know they care about getting some kind of return on their most expensive FA ever.

[jorgenswest]

I know they care about getting some kind of return on their most expensive FA ever.

Why doesn't that return need to be better than what they are getting from their current 5? I want him to earn it. If he doesn't, start him in the pen. There will be an opportunity for the rotation as the season progresses. Let him earn it then.

[DaveW]

Nolasco has done nothing to earn a rotation spot if and when he comes back. If these guys are all pitching like they are and healthy no way do any get put in the pen in favor of nolasco