Article: Three-Bagger: Mauer's Decline, Morneau's Woes & Dozier's Pop

[Craig Arko]

Not to state the obvious, but that news about Justin is depressing.  Hopefully this is just a relatively short set-back and nothing that is going to plague him for years, esp. with the young kids.  

 

Semi-off topic - I know there has already been some coverage of what ex-football players are experiencing, but I wonder if in about ten years we are going to find out that it is much worse than originally reported (or because of the larger size of players, more and more players are dealing with permanent repercussions).

Hopefully knowledge will lead the way to answers.

 

http://www.bu.edu/cte/news/press-releases/september-14-2009/

[DocBauer]

IMO, Mauer is now a quality defensive 1B. He is still a .260-.270 ish hitter with a .350 OB%.

 

Call it grasping at straws, but, there is value there. It's not what we want, not what he wants, not what the Twins want, and not what his contract and past would indicate he should be. But there is some value there.

 

Can he pull a Morneau and heal up and find himself again? Nobody knows. JM shows maybe. Koskie shows maybe not. There is still hope. But what to do in the meantime? Drop the whole "but for his contact" thoughts and arguments. What to do while he's here and part of the team? For NOW it would seem to me you have two choices:

 

1) despite a penchant for hitting in to double plays, he can still hit a little, and he can still be good to better at getting on base. Hitting second behind Buxton...eventually...might be his best spot.

 

2) ultimately, Rosario or Polanco hitting second may be the best lineup option. For now, most of this year, Hunter has done a good job there. If one if these guys, or Escobar, or a Santana return, can become a fixture, then Mauer only fits in one of the final 3 spots in the order. It's sad...but it's the truth. Still.....there is some value here when looked at objectively, and taken at current, realistic, face value.

[USAFChief]

 

IMO, Mauer is now a quality defensive 1B. He is still a .260-.270 ish hitter with a .350 OB%.

Call it grasping at straws, but, there is value there. It's not what we want, not what he wants, not what the Twins want, and not what his contract and past would indicate he should be. But there is some value there.

Can he pull a Morneau and heal up and find himself again? Nobody knows. JM shows maybe. Koskie shows maybe not. There is still hope. But what to do in the meantime? Drop the whole "but for his contact" thoughts and arguments. What to do while he's here and part of the team? For NOW it would seem to me you have two choices:

1) despite a penchant for hitting in to double plays, he can still hit a little, and he can still be good to better at getting on base. Hitting second behind Buxton...eventually...might be his best spot.

2) ultimately, Rosario or Polanco hitting second may be the best lineup option. For now, most of this year, Hunter has done a good job there. If one if these guys, or Escobar, or a Santana return, can become a fixture, then Mauer only fits in one of the final 3 spots in the order. It's sad...but it's the truth. Still.....there is some value here when looked at objectively, and taken at current, realistic, face value.

I think you're grasping at straws.

[gil4]

 

I commented during ST that Mauer was no longer vital to the Twins' resurgence and got jumped on by a lot of posters.  I like Mauer and was a big fan of the contract signing at the time but that deal just keeps getting worse and worse.  He may go down as one of the most overpaid baseball players of all time.

 

I'm not sure if I was one of the ones that jumped on you at the time, but allow me to pile on now.  I can't see a significant resurgence happening as long as the Twins are paying an aging 1B $23M/yr to hit .261/.324/.357./.681 (and dropping) in the three hole.  It is vital to have Mauer stop being that guy and be more like his old self instead, unless we want to postpone the resurgence until 2018.

 

At the time he got the contract, I recognized the importance of resigning him, but the dollar amount surprised and concerned me.  They paid for 8 years of the 2009 Joe Mauer when even at the time that year looked like an aberration. That said, I would have been fine with 8 years/$150M, and that would have made very little difference in the current situation.  Paying an aging 1B $18.75M/yr to hit .261/.324/.357./.681 doesn't really give more flexibility than paying him $23M.

[tobi0040]

 

I'm not sure if I was one of the ones that jumped on you at the time, but allow me to pile on now.  I can't see a significant resurgence happening as long as the Twins are paying an aging 1B $23M/yr to hit .261/.324/.357./.681 (and dropping) in the three hole.  It is vital to have Mauer stop being that guy and be more like his old self instead, unless we want to postpone the resurgence until 2018.

 

At the time he got the contract, I recognized the importance of resigning him, but the dollar amount surprised and concerned me.  They paid for 8 years of the 2009 Joe Mauer when even at the time that year looked like an aberration. That said, I would have been fine with 8 years/$150M, and that would have made very little difference in the current situation.  Paying an aging 1B $18.75M/yr to hit .261/.324/.357./.681 doesn't really give more flexibility than paying him $23M.

 

The Twins were taken to the woodshed on the contract.  No doubt about it.  His agent could not have had any more leverage.

 

Having said that, I thought all along that the Twins likely viewed Mauer's contract as part production and part marketing expense.  He is the most visible Twin.  By far the most jerseys at Target field are his and he probably brings female fans out and watching on TV.

 

My point is, if the Twins from day one viewed his deal as $16M player and $7M goodwill/marketing then it is not really fair to expect the player to play up to $23M. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins were taken to the woodshed on the contract.  No doubt about it.  His agent could not have had any more leverage.

As much as the Twins "were taken to the woodshed", Joe Mauer probably would have received more money on the free agent market. In 2009/2010, both the Yankees and Red Sox needed a long-term catching solution. It wouldn't have surprised me even a little to see one of them offer over $200m for Joe that offseason, particularly if they started bidding against one another.

 

Joe Mauer's contract was fair market value at the time, if not slightly under what he would have received in free agency.

 

The reality of the situation is this: big money contracts usually turn out to be a horrible deal for the purchasing team in the long run. Joe Mauer is not an aberration here.

[Mike Sixel]

Contract was not the problem, for me. The problem was not moving him off catcher to protect the investment. All my opinion, of course.....

[tobi0040]

 

As much as the Twins "were taken to the woodshed", Joe Mauer probably would have received more money on the free agent market. In 2009/2010, both the Yankees and Red Sox needed a long-term catching solution. It wouldn't have surprised me even a little to see one of them offer over $200m for Joe that offseason, particularly if they started bidding against one another.

 

Joe Mauer's contract was fair market value at the time, if not slightly under what he would have received in free agency.

 

The reality of the situation is this: big money contracts usually turn out to be a horrible deal for the purchasing team in the long run. Joe Mauer is not an aberration here.

 

The key there is "had he been a free agent that year".  He would have hit free agency a year later.  

 

Instead of .365 average, 28 HR, and an OPS of 1.031, he would have hit free agency with .327, 9 HR, and an OPS of .871.   Still an elite catcher, but it would have been interesting to see what he would have received.  I don't think 8 years and $23M represents any material discount.  Let's also not forget that he received certainty a year earlier. Had that last year been 2007 or 2011 he would have made far less than $184M.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

His numbers were certainly lower in 2010 but it was still good for a 140 OPS+, the third highest number in Joe's career to that point. Given the power-sucking vacuum that was Target Field in 2010, I think he still gets roughly the same contract on the free agent market. I don't think teams would have blinked at the change in his numbers from 2009 to 2010 (particularly the Red Sox, who absolutely prized Joe's Monster-banging ability, elite OBP, and very good defense).

 

Does anyone really think that Epstein wasn't salivating at the prospect of bidding on Joe Mauer? I don't know if there's a player in baseball who would have appealed to Theo more than Joe Mauer in 2010.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Posey "only" got 9/167 from SF three years later, but of course that bought out four arbitration years.  He was 26 years old at the time, but Mauer only turned 28 in early 2011 too.  I think 8/184 was a definite possibility for Joe on the open market that winter, but I don't think he would have done better than that.  Which does suggest the Twins didn't get much of a hometown/extension discount signing him to those figures the previous winter.  They should have signed him much, much earlier, or made his first contract after 2006 some form of "lifetime" deal.

[troyhobbs]

 

His numbers were certainly lower in 2010 but it was still good for a 140 OPS+, the third highest number in Joe's career to that point. Given the power-sucking vacuum that was Target Field in 2010, I think he still gets roughly the same contract on the free agent market. I don't think teams would have blinked at the change in his numbers from 2009 to 2010 (particularly the Red Sox, who absolutely prized Joe's Monster-banging ability, elite OBP, and very good defense).

 

Does anyone really think that Epstein wasn't salivating at the prospect of bidding on Joe Mauer? I don't know if there's a player in baseball who would have appealed to Theo more than Joe Mauer in 2010.

Maybe Epstein still wants him.  Mauer for Rizzo straight up...

[tobi0040]

 

His numbers were certainly lower in 2010 but it was still good for a 140 OPS+, the third highest number in Joe's career to that point. Given the power-sucking vacuum that was Target Field in 2010, I think he still gets roughly the same contract on the free agent market. I don't think teams would have blinked at the change in his numbers from 2009 to 2010 (particularly the Red Sox, who absolutely prized Joe's Monster-banging ability, elite OBP, and very good defense).

 

Does anyone really think that Epstein wasn't salivating at the prospect of bidding on Joe Mauer? I don't know if there's a player in baseball who would have appealed to Theo more than Joe Mauer in 2010.

 

He would have gotten a lot of money, but I don;t think the same amount.  I think 2009 was the year many thought Joe broke out some power.  He had 44 HR from 2008, an average of about 10 a year.  He hits 28 in 2009.  Then goes back to hitting 9 in 2010.  2010 showed how flukey 2009 was and that was the guy moving forward, IMO.

 

And as big of a hole as Boston or New York may have had, it was reasonable to assume the back 50% of that contract was not going to be as a catcher.

 

 

[jimmer]

I don't think the powers to be actually figured his power numbers were there for good after only one season of having them.  I would hope they wouldn't think that. That would be poor trend analysis. I think most FOs would have waited to see if Mauer was able to repeat 2009's power number before assuming 2009 was going to be the new norm.  I certainly didn't expect him to continue that.  

 

Let's say he instead just won another batting title in 2009 (not exactly out of the norm for him at the time) and didn't have the power numbers jumping up too, that's still 3 batting titles in the last 4 years.  He still gets a huge contract and likely the same one. I also doubt on-field production was the only thing being considered when they were considering his contract.

[Mike Sixel]

Not only can Mauer not hit......the last two games he's passed up opportunities for double plays, and has just look lost while standing in the batter's box, and watching pitches go by.

[shs_59]

RANDY CHOATE TO JOE MAUER

 

sure he's the BEST LOOGY in the game

 

but ALL 4 PITCHES were BALLS Joe Swings at 2 of them, is out on 4 pitches.

 

I"m soo Sick of this routine

 

when he was pissed for getting rung up in the middle innings on A CLEAR BALL

 

he needs to go back up to the DISH next time and not swing at all, SWING less NOT MORE.

 

RANDY CHOATE DID NOT THROW JOE MAUER a single strike in that At-Bat.

 

That is happening at least once a game to Joe now a days.

[shs_59]

Too bad he's un-tradable at this point.

[shs_59]

Edwin Jackson and Kyle Schwarber (they wouldn't trade Rizzo)

 

For Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano and 40 million dollars?

 

who says no?

[USAFChief]

Wait...Randy Choate is the best LOOGY in the game??

[Brock Beauchamp]

Edwin Jackson and Kyle Schwarber (they wouldn't trade Rizzo)

 

For Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano and 40 million dollars?

 

who says no?

Joe Mauer.

[Pius Jefferson]

It's getting so bad that it's kind of sad watching Mauer hit.

 

Don't both sides have to consider finding something wrong with Mauer and putting him on the DL? Only short-term but two weeks helped last year. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I commented during ST that Mauer was no longer vital to the Twins' resurgence and got jumped on by a lot of posters. I like Mauer and was a big fan of the contract signing at the time but that deal just keeps getting worse and worse. He may go down as one of the most overpaid baseball players of all time.

i would argue that because of his contract and stature on the team, he is vital to the team's resurgence, in kind of a reverse way. He could be a boat anchor to the slow track if things continue the way they have.

 

I seem to reall being one of the " Joe will bounce back" bobos...

Edited June 17, 2015 by Sconnie

[tobi0040]

 

RANDY CHOATE TO JOE MAUER

sure he's the BEST LOOGY in the game

but ALL 4 PITCHES were BALLS Joe Swings at 2 of them, is out on 4 pitches.

I"m soo Sick of this routine

when he was pissed for getting rung up in the middle innings on A CLEAR BALL

he needs to go back up to the DISH next time and not swing at all, SWING less NOT MORE.

RANDY CHOATE DID NOT THROW JOE MAUER a single strike in that At-Bat.

That is happening at least once a game to Joe now a days.

 

Agreed.  He gets consistently rung up on balls outside and is forced to swing at them.