Heyman: Twins may be early buyers

[USAFChief]

To pretend this was the sentiment of the board is patently false. I would expect more from a mod.

I'm guilty of paraphrasing, perhaps even exaggeration, but I don't think I made any of that up.

[spinowner]

 

Why can't a proper rebuild involve getting major league players in exchange for probably redundant prospects?

In theory it can and it should. The hard part is identifying which players are the correct ones to trade and to trade for and finding a team that feels the opposite.

As my son has said: In theory, "in theory" is the same as "in practice", but in practice they are not the same.

[Mike Sixel]

To pretend this was the sentiment of the board is patently false. I would expect more from a mod.

It 100% has been the theme.

[spinowner]

 

My problems with this are:

there's no guarantee "the real pieces" will ever be in place,

if they someday are in place, there's no guarantee there won't be other missing pieces by then, and

By the time this takes place, you might not have the extra pieces needed to address the other weaknesses, or the pieces you need might not be available.

My problems with this are:

 

there's no guarantee "the real pieces" are in place now,

 

if they are in place now, there's no guarantee that there will be enough success to make the postseason now, and

 

by the time the rebuilding fully matures you will have traded the extra pieces needed to address the other weaknesses or to trade for the pieces you need.

 

Two valid opinions, and of course we each know which one is right. 

[Craig Arko]

This was always an interesting read.

 

http://www.stoa.org.uk/topics/bull****/pdf/on-bull****.pdf

 

Highly recommended.

[AKTwins]

Heyman didnt see to put much thought into this. If the Twins target a bat I think it will be a 1B/DH type.  Vargas could use some more time in the minors.  I found the Ryan Howard rumor somewhat interest.  What about trading Philly Nolasco for Howard straight up and both sides eating the money of the contracts?  Without Arcia or Vargas we dont have any left-handed power in the lineup.  Or what about sending Nolasco and a B-/C+ prospect (Niko Goodman?) to Philly for Howard and have Philly take on some of Howard's contract?  A leadoff hitter would be a great get, so we can move Dozier down in the line up, but I cant think of anyone out there who would be available.

[Hrbowski]

 

Why? Why should a fan keep paying for crappy teams? Why should a fan be patient? Why should we tolerate being bad for decades? You can choose to be that way, why should I?

The Twins haven't been bad for decades, and trading away your prospects for a player that will give less value than you paid for is a rotten idea. Nobody said you had to choose to tolerate a "crappy" team, and your idea that we can trade top prospects who have just as likely of a chance of succeeding as the player that we get for them just is illogical at this point, the Twins have a better chance of winning the division by promoting players than trading for players who some people on here want, and those players are not going to change us into a world champion team, or even a .500 team, the players that can change a team like that aren't available in trades, and it is just stupid to trade prospects that have as good of a chance of succeeding as the player we would get in return, and in the long run make the team more money, so it stupid from a baseball and business standpoint.

 

This team has as good of a chance at succeeding this year as any other team in the division, and the only area that we need help in that we can't solve from within the organization is catcher, and the catchers that are available in trades aren't going to be much of an upgrade over Suzuki, and we can upgrade the outfield and bullpen from within, so it is just unreasonable to make a trade for a player that you could upgrade just as good from within.

[Craig Arko]

Why? Why should a fan keep paying for crappy teams? Why should a fan be patient? Why should we tolerate being bad for decades? You can choose to be that way, why should I?

Then don't. All decisions in life should be this easy.

[Hrbowski]

 

My problems with this are:

there's no guarantee "the real pieces" will ever be in place,

if they someday are in place, there's no guarantee there won't be other missing pieces by then, and

By the time this takes place, you might not have the extra pieces needed to address the other weaknesses, or the pieces you need might not be available.

Trading for "proven" pieces is an awful idea, look at the teams that go and make a big trade at the deadline, the Tigers did it with Price, the A's did it with a lot of players, and those moves rarely pay off. If a team's scouts like a player, and they are lower on someone from within the organization that other people are higher on, that is when you use pieces to get major league talent that you think will help you in the pennant race, but it all comes down to scouting, you just don't trade for someone because they are popular with bandwagon fans, (those players are commonly known as "superstars"), you trade for a player because you and your scouts think that player x is better than player y, and you are higher on them than your trade partner, because when teams make a trade they usually think that they came out better, they just don't throw away players, which some of these trade proposals on this thread have had the Twins doing.

 

But like I said, it all comes down to scouting, look at how the Giants built there world champion teams, and look at the Cardinals, they didn't just go acquire a bunch of all stars, they traded players that they were low on, but other teams were high on for unheralded players, and when the Giants did go out and make the big trade (Carlos Beltran), it was one of their worst moves in recent history. The Twins are pretty high on their prospects, and from a scouting point of view they should be, but if the Twins scouts think that a certain player is going to actually help the team become a world series champion, and they could part with certain prospects and still win the trade, but meanwhile make the other team think that they are winning the trade, then they should go for it, but if you like player x, and the other team is asking for a bunch of prospects that combined you are higher on than player x, it is stupid to give in just to get the player, because if you believe that the prospects are better than player x, you shouldn't trade for the player, because you actually believe that you are losing the trade. When teams make trades they want to come away as the winner, not even, and definitely not the loser.

[twinsnorth49]

In theory it can and it should. The hard part is identifying which players are the correct ones to trade and to trade for and finding a team that feels the opposite.

As my son has said: In theory, "in theory" is the same as "in practice", but in practice they are not the same.

The FO gets paid a lot of money to make hard decisions, you can't paralyze yourselves by being afraid to make the wrong one if a benefit comes from it at present.

[jimbo92107]

I'm just a city boy, but even I know you don't cook eggs by setting fire to the hen house. I also know you don't trust some fast talker named Hay-man to not make hay for no reason. Skinny Willie sez, don't let no East Coast pundit who can't spell Hrbek tell you what your own home town team needs, much less what they're like 'nuff to do.

 

Dear Terry,

 

Don't sell the farm before the harvest.

 

Love,

Jimbo

[USAFChief]

The FO gets paid a lot of money to make hard decisions, you can't paralyze yourselves by being afraid to make the wrong one if a benefit comes from it at present.

Not to mention, it's going to be even harder to make trades in the future, using only the prospects that are no longer prospects, as bait.

 

 

[Hrbowski]

 

The FO gets paid a lot of money to make hard decisions, you can't paralyze yourselves by being afraid to make the wrong one if a benefit comes from it at present.

Fact of the matter is that they don't get paid to make decisions, they are paid to make the right ones, and they are not paralyzing themselves because they are afraid of making the wrong decision, they are approaching it how any reasonable front office would. People just can't say that the Twins have a bad front office when they don't even understand how a front office approaches trade talks, contract negotiations, draft decisions etc.

[Mike Sixel]

Uh, the Cardinals absolutely traded for help. I am all for promoting players. Sano and Buxton are the only top ten prospects that were hitters not promoted this year.........

 

Here are the players the farm has promoted to the majors for the first time this year

[Mike Sixel]

Fact of the matter is that they don't get paid to make decisions, they are paid to make the right ones, and they are not paralyzing themselves because they are afraid of making the wrong decision, they are approaching it how any reasonable front office would. People just can't say that the Twins have a bad front office when they don't even understand how a front office approaches trade talks, contract negotiations, draft decisions etc.

Like Stauffer and Duensing being on the roster? Or last year's debacle? They are not questionable at this point?

 

The Cubs seem to be getting better much faster. The Astros took a completely different approach. Were those unreasonable?

[Hrbowski]

 

Uh, the Cardinals absolutely traded for help. I am all for promoting players. Sano and Buxton are the only top ten prospects that were hitters not promoted this year.........

Here are the players the farm has promoted to the majors for the first time this year

They were not selling the farm, they were trading players like PJ Walters, and Colby Rasmus, who had demanded a trade.

[cmb0252]

The Twins have quantity but lack quality. Why not move several redundant prospects to try and get a proven big leaguer for this year and next year? There are only 25 big league spots.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Fact of the matter is that they don't get paid to make decisions, they are paid to make the right ones, and they are not paralyzing themselves because they are afraid of making the wrong decision, they are approaching it how any reasonable front office would. People just can't say that the Twins have a bad front office when they don't even understand how a front office approaches trade talks, contract negotiations, draft decisions etc.

 

I don't know exactly how Enron's executive management made decisions, but I feel very comfortable saying that mistakes were made.

[Mike Sixel]

Who here has said trade the top prospects? Who here has said gut the farm? Who here has even implied that?

[Hrbowski]

 

Like Stauffer and Duensing being on the roster? Or last year's debacle? They are not questionable at this point?

The Cubs seem to be getting better much faster. The Astros took a completely different approach. Were those unreasonable?

The Astros and Cubs never sold the farm for major league ready talent, and another thing is that Stauffer is not on the roster. Oh, the Twins don't have any more questions than the Cubs and Astros, either.

[Hrbowski]

 

Who here has said trade the top prospects? Who here has said gut the farm? Who here has even implied that?

 I remember people mentioning Stewart, Meyer etc. I remember people saying we should trade for Lucroy, which would require gutting the farm.

[SwainZag]

 

The Twins have quantity but lack quality. Why not move several redundant prospects to try and get a proven big leaguer for this year and next year? There are only 25 big league spots.

 

You have used the term "redundant prospects" a few times today.  Who are these redundant prospects that they can just flip for proven major leaguers?

[d-mac]

 

There is no short term or clear long term solution at catcher. Suzuki is performing exactly as they should have expected him to perform when they didn't take what the market would offer. They may need to trade Sano or Berrios to get Lucroy. There is a little more upside at the SS position. I think catcher is the greater need.

There are plenty of possibilities at 1B or corner OF long term within.

I would hate to see them trade for decline phase talent with commitments to next year unless it is an elite level player at their position. The separation between the Twins and the Royals is too great. It can't be closed without getting back very good players.

I think there is a good chance Ryan will make some deals that don't help enough this year and hurt long term. Trading for a guy having a career half year and seeing them regress to their career norms in the second half would hurt this team long term.

Lucroy is struggling in a small sample. They will need to pay big, but it might be buying as low as it will get.

The last time they paid for an elite catcher approaching his 30's didn't work out too well did it? I would be willing to trade  a prospect for a catcher prospect though. And your right, we shouldn't be mortgaging the long term future of this team (it looks really bright) for trying to go for it this year, which is a mirage anywway.

[d-mac]

http://www.nooooooooooooooo.com/

[jorgenswest]

The last time they paid for an elite catcher approaching his 30's didn't work out too well did it? I would be willing to trade  a prospect for a catcher prospect though. And your right, we shouldn't be mortgaging the long term future of this team (it looks really bright) for trying to go for it this year, which is a mirage anywway.

You are right. The other option is to trade a top prospect for a top catching prospect. Those are hard to find. Catcher is a huge hole and I would have preferred they had gone after Martin this winter rather than to extend Suzuki. Now they have to pay in prospects.

[SwainZag]

 

You are right. The other option is to trade a top prospect for a top catching prospect. Those are hard to find. Catcher is a huge hole and I would have preferred they had gone after Martin this winter rather than to extend Suzuki. Now they have to pay in prospects.

 

Even if they wouldn't have extended Zuke last season, I couldn't have seen the Twins offering Martin anywhere close the money he got from Toronto this past offseason.

[Hrbowski]

 

You are right. The other option is to trade a top prospect for a top catching prospect. Those are hard to find. Catcher is a huge hole and I would have preferred they had gone after Martin this winter rather than to extend Suzuki. Now they have to pay in prospects.

 I think that the Twins would be better off trying to sign Matt Weiters, but Kevin Plawecki might be an interesting target, but they should only do a one for one trade for a catching prospect.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Fact of the matter is that they don't get paid to make decisions, they are paid to make the right ones, and they are not paralyzing themselves because they are afraid of making the wrong decision, they are approaching it how any reasonable front office would. People just can't say that the Twins have a bad front office when they don't even understand how a front office approaches trade talks, contract negotiations, draft decisions etc.

Find me the part where I said the Twins have a bad Fo? You won't because I don't think they do. You're just arguing semantics, they get paid to make decisions that are in the best interest of the ball club, the poster I was quoting was referring to the difficulty in deciding "which" players to possibly trade and that it is a tough thing to decide. I agree but you can't sit around wringing your hands about such things and never end up doing something. I'm not suggesting the Twins are doing that, merely pointing out that such decisions ultimately have to be made sometimes.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moderator note:

 

This thread is going downhill in a hurry, please stop the bickering.  On that note, let's stop arguing against a generalization that one or two posters might be adopting.  There are a ton of different points being made, and people are talking over each other and not even paying attention to what those points are.  There will be a lot less bickering if people stop distorting what others are saying. 

 

Thank you.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My take on the issue:

 

Don't have a problem with being a buyer, but I don't want to mortgage the farm just yet.  The Twins need to figure out where their long term weaknesses are going to be.  One obvious one with little help from the farm is at catcher, and I could certainly see an exchange there, but getting a guy with a couple years left and near 30 isn't the right answer in my opinion unless it's done cheaply, and Lucroy won't be cheap. 

 

As for catching, I think the best option is to revisit Mauer's position (though I know it likely won't happen).  His numbers wouldn't be bad for a catcher. It also opens up 1B for one of our many 1B/DH type prospects or even a 3 month tryout for Sano. 

 

If they are going to trade someone, I think flipping guys like Pat Dean and Taylor Rogers makes a LOT more sense as they have little future with the team.  While they are more back of the rotation type arms, they are near ML ready and would like bring back something of value as they have options and 6+ years of team control. 

 

The problems with this year's team though are going to be a bit tougher to solve.  They need help at SS with 3 options (2 in the high minors),  so nothing more than a short term option makes sense.  They need help at 1B, have options to address it in the minors, and cannot do anything about it unless Mauer moves back to C, which likely isn't going to happen.  CF is a problem that can be addressed in the near future as well from the system, as is their corner OF situation, though that can only be handled through patience.  The holes that are easiest to fix (and cheaply) is the pen.