Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

2016 Election Thread

TheLeviathan

By TheLeviathan
in The Sports Bar

Recommended Posts

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Austin was an oasis in the Texas desert when I visited there 40 years ago, too. I think you need to spend a week in Waxahachie or Lubbock or Amarillo before determining a trend. :)

TV ad tonight featuring ZZ Top music reminds me that I should have included La Grange on your suggested itinerary. A haw haw haw haw.

  • Replies 6.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Badsmerf Cedar Rapids Kernels

Badsmerf

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Here's a fun game!  

 

Trump......or

?

When he says "let's take back Missouri" while firing a machine gun.... kinda makes you wonder how many people are buried under his tomatoes.

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I can guarantee you that no Onion candidates will be posted in these fun activities....only real, actual morons.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_I_l6v1BILrg/TVCWWAtEpxI/AAAAAAAAABc/G6uuQIbIvx8/s1600/trollsX.jpg

 

The moron community frowns upon your attempt to lump them in with politicians.

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Watching Tom Brokaw at the Olympics, it reminds me of how informative, professional and reassuring he always was during his heyday. I thought more than once that he seemed more presidential than most of the candidates he covered.

 

Trump has (waning) support largely because people don't like politicians and want an outsider. Would have a Tom Brokaw circa 1992 grabbed this same support?

Shane Wahl Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Shane Wahl

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Then you're just deliberately ignoring a variety of factors.  

 

Voting for Trump can be utterly irrational and indefensible.  We can all believe and accept that.  And it changes nothing about his odds.

 

Silver just changed it to 7 or so percent, so . . . nah.

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Silver just changed it to 7 or so percent, so . . . nah.

No he didn't it has trump at 16% and 23% in the two polls and poll plus calculations.

 

7:1 odds is my personal feeling on it.

 

All it takes is an economic recession or Hillary to have a medical issue to get trump back into the ball game.

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

All it takes is an economic recession or Hillary to have a medical issue to get trump back into the ball game.

Right. The earlier remark about hedging overlooks a different and unstated kind of hedging when predicting a tiny percentage: "if nothing unexpected happens".

TheLeviathan MVP

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

No he didn't it has trump at 16% and 23% in the two polls and poll plus calculations.

7:1 odds is my personal feeling on it.

All it takes is an economic recession or Hillary to have a medical issue to get trump back into the ball game.

 

We're also at a low water mark at this point, there is nothing to stop this from shifting.  With how unlikable Hillary is, it won't take much (a small scandal - even an invented one to smear her, an elitist comment, the perception of talking down to Americans in a debate, etc.) for these numbers to shift radically.  

 

Silver's analysis also shows we are really only 7-10 days removed from it being 50-50.  So things appear to be in major flux right now.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/07/14/hillary_clinton_s_role_models_ad_is_extremely_effective.html

 

Hillary is doing exactly what I thought she might... Why launch an attack ad when you can just let the other guy talk and do the work for you? While I generally hate the use of "think of our kids!!!11!eleven" in political discussions (it usually leads to bad ideas being forced upon us), this ad damned near perfect.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

 

Silver's analysis also shows we are really only 7-10 days removed from it being 50-50.  So things appear to be in major flux right now.

Well, yes and no. It wasn't *really* 50/50. Trump got his convention bump - which is almost always temporary - and Clinton hadn't yet held a convention to balance the scales.

 

That doesn't mean this election is a sure thing (though I believe it requires a disaster to alter its outcome) but polls are always out of whack between the two conventions.

 

Hillary has all the cards right now. She's polished, she's raising money like crazy, the party has (mostly) unified behind her, and she's likely to mop the floor with Trump in the debates.

 

All the traditional hallmarks of the GOP have wilted with Trump: fundraising, grassroots efforts, party unity... They're all in chaos because Donald can't keep his mouth shut.

TheLeviathan MVP

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

Well, yes and no. It wasn't *really* 50/50. Trump got his convention bump - which is almost always temporary - and Clinton hadn't yet held a convention to balance the scales.

 

That doesn't mean this election is a sure thing (though I believe it requires a disaster to alter its outcome) but polls are always out of whack between the two conventions.

 

Even after both conventions the numbers were close.  All you have to do is look at his graph to see why we're not at 50-50 anymore.  It wasn't the convention, it was Trump's incessant need to to say stupid things.

 

Hillary is playing it smart - slink back into the shadows and let him destroy himself.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

 

Even after both conventions the numbers were close.  All you have to do is look at his graph to see why we're not at 50-50 anymore.  It wasn't the convention, it was Trump's incessant need to to say stupid things.

 

Hillary is playing it smart - slink back into the shadows and let him destroy himself.

Sure, Trump hurt himself quite a bit but the post-convention polls take a few days to play out... I think it's six of one, half dozen of the other. Clinton balanced the scales with the convention at the same time Trump was pointing a shotgun at his own foot.

 

We say this all the time in baseball talk... "He is who he is." When a player has a .650 OPS for five seasons, we admit he's a .650 OPS player. At this point, Donald Trump is who he is. He's a loudmouth buffoon who places bravado above all else. He's used to everyone listening to what he says because he's the boss and they have to listen. He can't coalition build, he doesn't listen to anyone, and he refuses to support those surrounding him, even though they're vital to his success... It's about the Donald all day, every day.

 

And that can't win a general election. If he couldn't change his stripes after he locked down the nomination in May, he won't/can't change his stripes today.

 

And that means he loses unless something goes horribly wrong with either America or the Clinton campaign.

TheLeviathan MVP

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

 

Good article.  I've often wondered what the breakdown is for blame for why poor, overlooked whites have historically voted Republican.  It's against their interest and certainly a large share of the blame goes on Republicans for convincing them otherwise, but how much if it is the elitist way the left often treats them?  The left embraces so many other poor, down-trodden people, but poor and down-trodden white has never been met with the same reaction.

 

Either way, I do think this group of people is the groundswell behind Trump.  And I don't think it's going away even if Trump does.  We may only see it escalate.

Badsmerf Cedar Rapids Kernels

Badsmerf

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I think it's exactly the elitism, and continually being overlooked. In the Midwest we have do much opportunity, this segment of people isn't as significant. However, many places are not nearly as nice, and it is difficult for some being brought up in different circumstances to relate to their problems (big reason Romney lost the election). They don't trust government because government doesn't work for them. They blame the other lazy people on food stamps that should be able to get better jobs. No GED, few problems with the law, and now they are in the system, just like inner city blacks but nobody is trying to stick up for them.

 

You're right about them not going away. If anything, this portion if the population is going to grow with wealth inequality. The cracks are beginning to show with this trump movement (flux pavilion dig, in case anyone is into that). I also know Clinton is not the right person to fix this. Hopefully the gop can funnel better candidates than Ted Cruz to the front, otherwise someone worse than even trump might take advantage (philippines recent election as an example).

 

Is it just a matter of time before history repeats itself?

TheLeviathan MVP

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

I'm amazed Smerf when I hear most political commentators talk about issues like this.  I get it, the majority of the population is centered in the major metro areas.  But there is absolutely no concept for what huge swaths of this country are like.  Why, for example, school vouchers are a preposterous idea for about 90% of the land area of Minnesota.  Or how so many towns rely on one or two employers to basically keep their town alive.  

 

Why would poor, white, rural Americans side with Democrats when they so openly despise them?  Even if, largely, Democratic policies are better for them.  

 

I don't expect people to understand just how different life is, but it's that near ignorance for what so many Americans live in every day that causes a huge disconnect.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Twins community on the internet.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    20,462
    Total Members
    48,845
    Most Online
    PRedig
    Newest Member
    PRedig
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...