2016 Election Thread

[Brock Beauchamp]

I haven't watched Obama's speech yet - I plan to do that this morning - but Biden nailed it out of the park and I've never been that keen on Biden. He delved into "rah rah 'murika" territory but had an upbeat, positive tone while doing it. No one was left out of the rally cry.

 

And his jabs at Trump were excellent. Great speech.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So what, exactly was orielly trying to prove with the first clip?

Distracting the conversation, the GOP's signature move over the past five years. By taking a roundabout path to the slavery thing and (falsely) attacking a trivial point, he undermined the First Lady's actual point, which was the progress of black America. The slavery bit was an aside, a reference point for progress.

 

And O'Reilly's gambit largely worked. We're not talking about Obama's speech anymore in the context of what she said and how well she said it, we're now talking about Bill O'Reilly.

 

The lines haven't moved. The people who hate O'Reilly still hate him. The people who like O'Reilly still think he had a salient point (which he obviously didn't).

 

The loser? Michelle Obama and the nation. She delivered a *fantastic* speech that should have stolen headlines.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Now I'm moving on to Billy-Boy's speech.

 

The contrast of tone between the DNC and RNC is startling. Yes, the DNC is going to be more upbeat because they control the White House but the outpouring of positivity about the nation, its people, and its role in the world is pretty damned uplifting (even if I don't buy a big portion of it).

 

Which makes the current polls all the more depressing. If America buys into the fear-mongering - which almost inevitably leads to violence of some kind, either domestic or foreign - and elects the Cheeto into office in November, I don't know what I will do. I've wanted to move to a Commonwealth nation for a long time... I doubt I'd do it but I'd think long and hard about finally making the jump out of the country.

[Squirrel]

Now I'm moving on to Billy-Boy's speech.

 

The contrast of tone between the DNC and RNC is startling. Yes, the DNC is going to be more upbeat because they control the White House but the outpouring of positivity about the nation, its people, and its role in the world is pretty damned uplifting (even if I don't buy a big portion of it).

 

Which makes the current polls all the more depressing. If America buys into the fear-mongering - which almost inevitably leads to violence of some kind, either domestic or foreign - and elects the Cheeto into office in November, I don't know what I will do. I've wanted to move to a Commonwealth nation for a long time... I doubt I'd do it but I'd think long and hard about finally making the jump out of the country.

I was going to bring this up ... the positivity vs the negativity, the 'Make us Great again' vs the 'We're already great.' While the latter is fine for now, to differentiate and during the convention, which is supposed to be 'rah rah-ish,' I hope the message moves toward acknowledgement of the real problems and that we're great to be able to acknowledge them and work toward solutions for the betterment of all and not return to a bygone era of fear, hate and mass discrimination.

[Mike Sixel]

If the Dems don't focus on the stuff that is really broken, in an emotionally connected way, lots of people will be thinking about moving...

[Badsmerf]

Luckily for me, the company i work for is German and does 3 year assignments for employees into different countries. I'd be ok with my kids growing up in the German school system. Many of the German-english speakers i know speak better English than a lot of Americans. I go to Munich for the first time this fall, and if i like it.... and Donald wins the election.... might just make the move (and work on an advanced degree while I'm there lol).

 

What about the dnc speeches don't you buy Brock? For the most part, they have been great. Sure, it's tough to accept the notion our country is so great right now, but it's sure better off than it was 8 years ago, despite what the gop is trying to sell. Notice they've backed off the economy since the stock markets have hit record highs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What about the dnc speeches don't you buy Brock? For the most part, they have been great. Sure, it's tough to accept the notion our country is so great right now, but it's sure better off than it was 8 years ago, despite what the gop is trying to sell. Notice they've backed off the economy since the stock markets have hit record highs.

Pretty much the bolded. The country becomes more fragmented and broken by the day. Both parties have contributed to this problem, though one is a bigger offender than the other.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If the Dems don't focus on the stuff that is really broken, in an emotionally connected way, lots of people will be thinking about moving...

 

Yup.  The Dems are bringing feel goods and facts to a contest of fear.  While, in principle, I don't disagree with them, from a strategy stand point this is foolhardy.  

 

If I'm on the Clinton campaign I do four things tonight and I hammer those points home:

 

1) Student loan debt is out of control.  We need to give young Americans the break they need to be able to live their lives free of crippling debt

 

2) Health care costs are better, but still nowhere near where they need to be.  It's hard for families and we can do more to help them

 

3)  ISIS and radical Islam are a real threat to western values and we have to stand up to that threat and defeat it

 

4)  Racial tensions and violence have spiked lately and we have to work together to heal those wounds - protect black lives and blue lives and work to bring those two sides together

 

The first two hit home with the left/Bernie end of things and the last two take some of the thunder away from Trump.  

 

Platitudes about rejecting cynicism are not going to march people out to the polls. 

[Badsmerf]

I agree that the rose colored glasses are not going to drive people to the polls. Unfortunately, people are more willing to act when they think something bad is going to happen.

 

Clinton needs to emotionally connect people to a sense of urgency. They cannot believe people will vote just to stop trump. On top of that, they should want voters to vote down the ticket and take control of the Senate. While Clinton will get disenfranchised from trump independents, those same voters aren't necessarily going to vote for the Democrat senators.

 

Until the gop can modify its party (ailes and O reilly out of fox news is a big step), i can't support them. When the head of the gop revolves around trump, Cruz, McConnell.... man there are problems. So for this election, i don't mind seeing the democrats win.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing that fascinates me about this election cycle is how well the GOP has sold people on the idea the government is broken and the GOP is the one to fix it.

 

The GOP has a majority of the following offices:

 

- Governors (overwhelming majority)

- State Legislatures (overwhelming majority)

- House of Representatives (large majority)

- Senate (slight majority)

 

They don't have the majority in one office: the presidency.

 

Yet they're going... to fix everything?

 

My brain hurts.

[Mike Sixel]

 

One thing that fascinates me about this election cycle is how well the GOP has sold people on the idea the government is broken and the GOP is the one to fix it.

 

The GOP has a majority of the following offices:

 

- Governors (overwhelming majority)

- State Legislatures (overwhelming majority)

- House of Representatives (large majority)

- Senate (slight majority)

 

They don't have the majority in one office: the presidency.

 

Yet they're going... to fix everything?

 

My brain hurts.

 

Well, you lower education spending, and keep saying stuff......we know from history that works....

[Squirrel]

Sigh

[DaveW]

I still maintain that Hillary will ultimately pull ahead once and for all during the debates, she is absolutely going to destroy the Donald and make him look like a clown. Hopefully Gary Johnson makes the debates as well and doubles up on him.

[TheLeviathan]

I know it stinks, we're all rational people and saying this doesn't make us feel good, but we're not in a fight over facts here.  The sooner Clinton's campaign realizes that the better.  

 

Everything she says can be true and factual and wonderful and everything Trump says can be an outrageous lie.....and she will still lose.

 

Perception is what is going to win this race, one way or the other.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I chalk it up to these conventions, it's really easy to get riled up and annoyed. I know for me personally, I've come to start to really believe Trump is going to win. That probably puts me more on edge than I'd like to be and is unfair to anyone I try and talk to about politics.

The only thing I can offer you is that although I believe like you do that there are a large number of uncounted, unpolled poor whites who will come to vote this cycle, they will be outnumbered by the number of rational Romney/Bush type voters who will in no way vote for Trump. Especially after Trump ****s the debates.

 

But am I 100% confident about that? Nope.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I know it stinks, we're all rational people and saying this doesn't make us feel good, but we're not in a fight over facts here.  The sooner Clinton's campaign realizes that the better.  

 

Everything she says can be true and factual and wonderful and everything Trump says can be an outrageous lie.....and she will still lose.

 

Perception is what is going to win this race, one way or the other.

 

That was my point above.....

[TheLeviathan]

 

The only thing I can offer you is that although I believe like you do that there are a large number of uncounted, unpolled poor whites who will come to vote this cycle, they will be outnumbered by the number of rational Romney/Bush type voters who will in no way vote for Trump. Especially after Trump ****s the debates.

But am I 100% confident about that? Nope.

 

Yeah, I think a lot of those people are on the Trump bandwagon reluctantly.  But I hope I'm wrong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, I think a lot of those people are on the Trump bandwagon reluctantly.  But I hope I'm wrong.

If Trump can pull his head out of his ass consistently for three months, we have a real problem. He might keep those reluctant voters.

 

Thankfully, he appears completely incapable of doing that, as evidenced by his Russian email comment yesterday.

 

If he straightens up in time for the debates, DANGER WILL ROBINSON. But if he keeps heading down his current path, Clinton should eat him alive on the debate stage.

 

And it's likely an embarrassed Trump becomes an even more ill-tempered, uncontrollable Trump. It wouldn't surprise me if Clinton is exhaustively training for the debates and developing a few comments/retorts solely intended to get Trump to melt down in front of the nation.

[DaveW]

If Trump can pull his head out of his ass consistently for three months, we have a real problem. He might keep those reluctant voters.

 

Thankfully, he appears completely incapable of doing that, as evidenced by his Russian email comment yesterday.

 

If he straightens up in time for the debates, DANGER WILL ROBINSON. But if he keeps heading down his current path, Clinton should eat him alive on the debate stage.

 

And it's likely an embarrassed Trump becomes an even more ill-tempered, uncontrollable Trump. It wouldn't surprise me if Clinton is exhaustively training for the debates and developing a few comments/retorts solely intended to get Trump to melt down in front of the nation.

If she really wants to elicit a meltdown, she should bring up a Beatles cover band in a Beatles Musical thread.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If she really wants to elicit a meltdown, she should bring up a Beatles cover band in a Beatles Musical thread.

 

Let's face it, it won't take much for her to poke that bear.

 

The real problem is how many people, no matter how bad she makes him look, will twist it.  Look no further than the reactions online to Jon Stewart vs. Hannity or the Young Turks vs. that crazy Texas racist.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let's face it, it won't take much for her to poke that bear.

 

The real problem is how many people, no matter how bad she makes him look, will twist it. Look no further than the reactions online to Jon Stewart vs. Hannity or the Young Turks vs. that crazy Texas racist.

I think that's why it needs to happen in a debate. The media's ability to spin is limited when a large cross-section of America saw it live.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think that's why it needs to happen in a debate. The media's ability to spin is limited when a large cross-section of America saw it live.

 

I hope that works, but Trump has mastered some really sneaky tricks that have got him this far.  Hillary is going to have to be ready with more than just good sense and sound arguments.  (Which, I know, sounds weird)

[DaveW]

I hope that works, but Trump has mastered some really sneaky tricks that have got him this far. Hillary is going to have to be ready with more than just good sense and sound arguments. (Which, I know, sounds weird)

Trump went against a bunch of clowns in his debate, Paul got some good jabs in but no one really took him seriously, which is a shame.

[Badsmerf]

Had Paul been given a real shot he might have been able to do more damage to trump. Unfortunately, the gop got behind Bush, Rubio, then Cruz. Bad choices. Paul probably did the smart thing and got out early and didn't waste too much time with it. Now, he's far far away from the mess that has been made, and Ted Cruz, i believe, will forever be associated with it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pretty solid speech by Clinton. It started a little slow but built up over time and she covered her bases rather well, focusing on jobs and security for a good section.

 

She also got some great jabs in at Trump, particularly on defaulting on debt and riling him up with a Tweet.

[PseudoSABR]

I was surprised that she committed to the progressive agenda.  When she picked Kaine, I thought it was signal she was lurching towards the center; I'm glad she's not.

 

She's not an incredible orator but I think she made her case.  She was competent and genuine. There's not much meat on the corruption/phony bone tonight.  She's still somehow a bit too self-aware to be totally likeable--I wouldn't say she's calculated, but she just doesn't have that ease that Obama, Clinton, W., or even sometimes, Trump.  Still, I was impressed; she did much better than I anticipated.  She did more than she needed to do in terms of presentation and effect.

 

I actually got emotional realizing that this is the first woman nominee, something I think we take for granted (/hat-tip to Michelle Obama).  That matters.  It gives me hope, and that Clinton emerged from the political class, the wife of a former President, indicates the very long odds women face who aspire to leadership and the systemic, deep-seated obstacles to women that pretend does not exist.

[stringer bell]

 

One thing that fascinates me about this election cycle is how well the GOP has sold people on the idea the government is broken and the GOP is the one to fix it.

 

The GOP has a majority of the following offices:

 

- Governors (overwhelming majority)

- State Legislatures (overwhelming majority)

- House of Representatives (large majority)

- Senate (slight majority)

 

They don't have the majority in one office: the presidency.

 

Yet they're going... to fix everything?

 

My brain hurts.

In many respects the GOP has tried to dismantle or neuter government, then they complain that it doesn't work. I find this plan of attack to be the ultimate in cynicism. Certainly, there is waste and inefficiency, but solving problems with a sledgehammer when a scalpel is the proper tool only make the problems worse.

[stringer bell]

 

What it comes down to for me:

Hillary isn't perfect, but she is by far the best option we all have. (No, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein aren't legitimate options)

People can pine for Warren (who didn't run), Biden (who didn't run) and sanders (who lost by 3 million votes) all they want.

I for one have been team Hilldawg for quite sometime and think she will make an excellent Comander in Chief. It's really way past overdue for people to drop the email "scandal!!11!!!!1"

I pretty much concur Dave. I'll say this much about Clinton's e-mail scandal, it gives me pause. IMHO, she was so obsessed with controlling her e-mail, she was willing to knowingly evade proper procedure. It presents someone who is a bit on the Nixonian side. That said, it just doesn't compare to the other party's candidate, not at all. Donald Trump is seven ways to unpresidential and ten ways to unqualified IMHO. I'll vote for Hillary knowing that it's possible status quo might be in force for eight more years, it is better than falling into the abyss with Donald Trump. When Hillary exits, I want to see new blood facing the rest of the 21st Century.

[TheLeviathan]

Nixonian is a good way to put it.

[stringer bell]

 

To Dave's point:  Someone will have to help me with who was making this point, but one speaker was really emphasizing Hillary's ability to work across the aisle.  I think that is a very, very smart strategy.  The right is so obsessed with NOT doing that, that emphasizing that angle is really going to work in her favor for the middle of the country.  

 

I tend to think a lot of people are annoyed with the obstructionism of the right and those in favor of it were never going to vote for her anyway.  Plus, I think it's actually something to her credit.  She's an actual, effective politician.  You may not always love the results, but sometimes that's the price of compromise.  The hope is that over time you pull things in the right direction and I'd say she's been successful at that.

Agree Levi. Hillary was re-elected in New York by a huge margin, praised as someone who could work well with others. Until it was clear that she would be the frontrunner to succeed Obama, most Republicans thought Clinton was a decent Secretary of State. I think partisan politics is the biggest factor in the changing narrative about her service both in the Senate and as SOS. However, her personality also enters in. I don't think Hillary is easy to know and I think she is prickly, just the opposite of her husband, who charmed many a Congressman or foreign leader (or intern! couldn't resist). If Hillary wins, it will because she is far more qualified than her opponent with a more realistic world view. It won't be because people want to sit down with her and discuss matters over an iced tea.