2016 Election Thread

[TheLeviathan]

I want to believe that Chi...but I've wanted to believe that for a long time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't know if it's possible for this country to move away from a two party system.

 

When things are going well, both parties have a vested interest in maintaining the system.

 

When things are going badly, one party has the advantage and, therefore, a vested interest in maintaining the system. Right now, that is the Democratic Party. They're profiting from the in-fighting and general asshattery coming out of the GOP. They lose ground if they break up the two party system and allow the GOP to reorganize into multiple, possibly competent, parties.

[Squirrel]

 

I don't know if it's possible for this country to move away from a two party system.

 

When things are going well, both parties have a vested interest in maintaining the system.

 

When things are going badly, one party has the advantage and, therefore, a vested interest in maintaining the system. Right now, that is the Democratic Party. They're profiting from the in-fighting and general asshattery coming out of the GOP. They lose ground if they break up the two party system and allow the GOP to reorganize into multiple, possibly competent, parties.

Maybe. I do worry to read reports, though, that caucus attendance and voting is down for the Democrats despite all that is going on. I hope 'complacency' and 'no way we could lose' sets in and they fail to get out and vote.

[USAFChief]

Since Trump is about guaranteed this thing and (I think) guaranteed to lose the general.....

 

will three consecutive presidential election defeats be enough to shake up this party?  Because the last two defeats have just pushed many in the base closer to the Cruz-types of the world and not towards sanity.

I still don't think Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Maybe I'm naive, but that can't really happen, can it?

[TheLeviathan]

I still don't think Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Maybe I'm naive, but that can't really happen, can it?

It looks like a near certainty at this point barring a shocking turn Tuesday.

[Craig Arko]

Well, here you go.

 

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says?src=usn_fb

 

It's math, right? So what could go wrong.

[drjim]

I still don't think Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Maybe I'm naive, but that can't really happen, can it?

The new take is the party is forced to punt the election and gear up hard again for 2020 in order to survive.

 

I do think we'll see a legit religious conservative third party candidate. Too much space there.

 

The business and national defense conservatives can probably stomach Hillary for a term.

[twinsnorth49]

I still don't think Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Maybe I'm naive, but that can't really happen, can it?

I've been asking that same question for months. I honestly never really expected the answer to be yes.

 

I'm not even sure how to describe this whole thing,

[Squirrel]

I've been asking that same question for months. I honestly never really expected the answer to be yes.

I'm not even sure how to describe this whole thing,

People see Trump and Sanders as party outsiders saying exactly what they want to hear, not to compare the two because I think Bernie is genuine and Trump is not. And, further, I think Trump is dangerous.

[DaveW]

 

I still don't think Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Maybe I'm naive, but that can't really happen, can it?

Vegas has him at -300 to win the Republican Nominee, he isn't a stone cold lock, but it's pretty close.

 

[Willihammer]

People see Trump and Sanders as party outsiders saying exactly what they want to hear, not to compare the two because I think Bernie is genuine and Trump is not. And, further, I think Trump is dangerous.

In a weird way they are tapping into the same anger though. Trump will siphon off a good chunk of Sanders' supporters I think.

[Willihammer]

I don't know if it's possible for this country to move away from a two party system.

 

When things are going well, both parties have a vested interest in maintaining the system.

 

When things are going badly, one party has the advantage and, therefore, a vested interest in maintaining the system. Right now, that is the Democratic Party. They're profiting from the in-fighting and general asshattery coming out of the GOP. They lose ground if they break up the two party system and allow the GOP to reorganize into multiple, possibly competent, parties.

I'm not sure how the Dems could break up the R's if they wanted to but I believe you're right, that we are stuck with a two party system, for better or worse. It boils down to winner take all voting in elections and literally every Congressional action.

[Willihammer]

I wouldn't be surprised if two 3rd parties poll >7-8% - a religious conservative to the right of Trump and a green/socialist to the left of Clinton.

[Squirrel]

 

In a weird way they are tapping into the same anger though. Trump will siphon off a good chunk of Sanders' supporters I think.

I think Sanders supporters would rather not vote than vote for Trump. And I think there are plenty of Republicans who won't vote if it's Trump.

[TheLeviathan]

I understand the desire to believe Trump will get destroyed in the general (at one point I believed it too) but that looks less the case every day.

[Badsmerf]

Why? The people voting in the primary are a small percentage of the people that will vote in November. By then, he will have debated with Clinton and been destroyed. With Sanders she has a reason to play nice, with trump she doesn't..... Especially since the gop won't be fully behind trump.

[TheLeviathan]

Why? The people voting in the primary are a small percentage of the people that will vote in November. By then, he will have debated with Clinton and been destroyed. With Sanders she has a reason to play nice, with trump she doesn't..... Especially since the gop won't be fully behind trump.

I think there may be even more Trump supporters among non-primary voters.

[TheLeviathan]

Hillary blowing out Bernie pretty much seals this thing.

 

Also, the Iowa handgun law is also the most preposterous thing ever. Read about it if you haven't.

[Squirrel]

Hillary blowing out Bernie pretty much seals this thing.

Also, the Iowa handgun law is also the most preposterous thing ever. Read about it if you haven't.

I don't think Bernie is done yet. Super Tuesday will give us a clear indicator.

[stringer bell]

More accurately, Sanders has to weather Super Tuesday, and if still considered viable could/should be able to compete in areas more in tune with his message. I thought SC was supposed to be a 60-40 kind of result. Hillary certainly overperformed.

[DaveW]

 

I don't think Bernie is done yet. Super Tuesday will give us a clear indicator.

He is toast, Hilary will win 8-9 states minimum on super Tuesday.

Again, Bernie can't win anything besides the young white vote. Hilary has the rest, South Carolina proves it.

[TheLeviathan]

He is toast, Hilary will win 8-9 states minimum on super Tuesday.

Again, Bernie can't win anything besides the young white vote. Hilary has the rest, South Carolina proves it.

Right, Bernie has one state sewn up and Clinton has 7 or 8. Super Tuesday will just cement what Dave and I were saying before - without at least some of the black vote, Bernie just isn't a viable candidate.

[DaveW]

 

Right, Bernie has one state sewn up and Clinton has 7 or 8. Super Tuesday will just cement what Dave and I were saying before - without at least some of the black vote, Bernie just isn't a viable candidate.

Yup, basically he has been exposed as a senator from Vermont who hasn't really worked on behalf of anyone but white folks ever since he has been in the senate, (he can talk all he wants, but actions speak louder than words) The Clintons have been helping out the black, Hispanic and other communities for the last 40 years. People made such a big deal about him almost winning Iowa (whitest state ever) and winning New Hampshire (lol)

 

In reality, Hilary was never in danger at any point of not getting the nom, however this doesn't play well with the media so they basically propped up Sanders, an eccentric lifelong politician senator who really doesn't do anything and hasn't really done much in the senate. Prior to him running for POTUS nobody outside of Vermont knew who he was.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I understand the desire to believe Trump will get destroyed in the general (at one point I believed it too) but that looks less the case every day.

He'll get destroyed. People put waaaaay too much stock in the primaries.

 

The primaries are dominated by the fringes of each party. Moderates, swing voters, and non-partisans participate in low numbers and often not at all.

 

The primary election system does not represent the people who actually choose the American president... Which is part of the problem and why we so often end up with "douche vs. turd sandwich" choices in the general election.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think there may be even more Trump supporters among non-primary voters.

I don't see it. The guy has insulted pretty much everyone who isn't a white male at one point or another. That's going to play out badly for him once the field narrows and the attacks become more targeted, exposing the absolutely ludicrous things Trump has said over the past few years (the birther nonsense in itself is enough to turn away moderates, much less other stuff like the Mexican wall insanity).

 

Right now, most Americans aren't paying attention and the field is crowded and noisy. That helps Trump in the short-term. I think it does the opposite once the spotlight shines brightly on him and him alone.

 

Trump might be able to win the white male vote. If Clinton is opposing him, and she will, the female vote is a virtual lock for the Democrats. For obvious reasons, the Democrats are also guaranteed every significant person of color demographic in the country.

 

It's impossible to win an election with only the white male vote in 21st century America.

 

Trump will be destroyed in a general, which is part of the reason why the GOP is doing everything they can to avoid his nomination.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing to keep in mind is that only a handful of states - none of them truly large - have weighed in thus far.

 

The two most moderate states - NH and NV - have both been won by Trump but both had strong showings from other candidates. I think we can discard the likes of SC and IA because they don't represent what's coming down the line: moderate states having their say in the primaries.

 

NH:

Trump: 35%

Kasich: 16%

Cruz: 12%

Bush: 11%

Rubio: 11%

 

NV:

Trump: 46%

Rubio: 24%

Cruz: 21%

 

There's a lot of noise in the NH primary (as there usually is with it being so early in the process). Obviously, Bush is now gone. The base has begun to rally around Rubio and, to an extent, Cruz. I suspect Kasich will be gone soon or, at the very least, Rubio will start taking his votes as the "anti-Trump" coalition strengthens, forcing Kasich to the sidelines in more moderate states. Who knows how long Carson will stick around or if they will try to force him out early for the good of the party.

 

Romney didn't start winning primaries with >50% of the vote until Super Tuesday. And once the rest of the GOP field starts folding, I think we'll see most of those votes going to Rubio/Cruz and not Trump, given how much a large segment of the GOP base dislikes the man.

 

I think the deciding factor is how long Cruz stays relevant in the race. If he stays in it through Super Tuesday and into mid-March, then Trump has a better chance of winning the nomination... Not necessarily through strength of support but through the GOP base's indecision.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Texas could really end up helping Trump and might be the key to the primaries when all is said and done.

 

While most of the GOP base seems to be rallying around Rubio as "their guy", Cruz is likely to walk away with Texas, seriously hampering Marco's ability to catch Trump in overall delegates.

 

The GOP base is helping Trump win the nomination with their indecision over Rubio/Cruz.

 

Of course, it's also important to point out that Trump has less than 7% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. California alone has over twice as many available delegates as Trump has accumulated thus far.

 

In essence, we're in the bottom of the first inning of this thing and Trump has a 1-0 lead.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't see it. The guy has insulted pretty much everyone who isn't a white male at one point or another. That's going to play out badly for him once the field narrows and the attacks become more targeted, exposing the absolutely ludicrous things Trump has said over the past few years (the birther nonsense in itself is enough to turn away moderates, much less other stuff like the Mexican wall insanity).

 

Right now, most Americans aren't paying attention and the field is crowded and noisy. That helps Trump in the short-term. I think it does the opposite once the spotlight shines brightly on him and him alone.

 

Trump might be able to win the white male vote. If Clinton is opposing him, and she will, the female vote is a virtual lock for the Democrats. For obvious reasons, the Democrats are also guaranteed every significant person of color demographic in the country.

 

It's impossible to win an election with only the white male vote in 21st century America.

 

Trump will be destroyed in a general, which is part of the reason why the GOP is doing everything they can to avoid his nomination.

 

Let me say at the outset that I don't like the conclusion I'm starting to come to, but at some point you just have to accept what you don't like.

 

Let's start out with maybe the most important point.  We're talking about primaries - the insiders game.  If there is anything Trump shouldn't be winning it's primaries.  He's an outsider dominating the insider game.  That alone should call any assumptions to be questioned.

 

Then look at the exit polling, Trump had even support in Nevada 47/45 in the male/female demo.  It was 36/29 in South Carolina.  His strongest demographics are 35+ - a group far more likely to get out and vote for Republicans.  Despite bashing latinos he overwhelmingly took that element in Nevada.  In South Carolina he pulled in twice as many independents than anyone else and roughly half the self-described independents who voted in Nevada.  

 

I think people are paying attention and I think he is tapping into something...strange.  We'll see how things go, but if he can win the Republican vote and bring in enough moderates - he can win this.  And if you had told me that 3 months ago I'd have dismissed it.

 

But here we are and I don't think he's going away easily.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Of course, it's also important to point out that Trump has less than 7% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. California alone has over twice as many available delegates as Trump has accumulated thus far.

 

In essence, we're in the bottom of the first inning of this thing and Trump has a 1-0 lead.

 

 

Sure, but his 82 is still 65 more than anyone else.  He's got five times what anyone else has and he's running away with primaries.  If Super Tuesday goes the way it looks right now, he's basically got this thing sewn up.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let me say at the outset that I don't like the conclusion I'm starting to come to, but at some point you just have to accept what you don't like.

Whoa, time to tap the brakes.

 

Yes, some of these trends are surprising and, to an extent, troubling... But we're four states into primary season.

 

And those four states account for less than 3.8% of the United States' population. They're also some of the looniest states in the country.

 

Every four years, we lose our minds some time in early March because Radical & Insane Candidate X is making a surprising run at the nomination. You'd think we'd learn our lesson at some point but it never happens.

 

Yes, Trump has a chance to win the nomination but with ~96% of the country left to weigh in, it's a bit early to draw significant conclusions from what we've seen thus far.