Dream Trade Target: Aroldis Champman

[DaveW]

What would it take to get Aroldis?

I would be fine including anyone not named Buxton/Sano at this point.

If the Twins are still "in it" at the deadline, I would LOVE to see them go the Royals route and try to build an elite bullpen, Chapman would be an absolutely fantastic start, with him in the 8th, and Perkins in the 9th the Twins would be a shutdown team potentially, if Meyer could dominate in the 7th and Boyer/Fien/etc fill in as well? Wow.

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmmm.....I'd put him about 4th on the "realistic dream candidate list" I think.

 

Meyer and Kepler, would you do that? It would take something like that I bet. I would not do that, I don't think. What is his contract status?

[DaveW]

 

Hmmmm.....I'd put him about 4th on the "realistic dream candidate list" I think.

 

Meyer and Kepler, would you do that? It would take something like that I bet. I would not do that, I don't think. What is his contract status?

I would do that in a heartbeat, but not sure the Reds would.

 

He is under team control for this year and next.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, I may have under clubbed there.......Arcia and a 2nd tier SP prospect?

[drjim]

 

Ya, I may have under clubbed there.......Arcia and a 2nd tier SP prospect?

 

This is realistic. Might be one of the AA power relief arms instead. I would do it.

[Vance_Christianson]

I'd trade Arcia and any RP bullpen arm for Aroldis Chapman! We have 4-5 power arms coming up, so what's 1 arm gone? Arcia has a lot of potential, but he can't stay healthy, and is a defensive liability!

[gunnarthor]

Man, not this year.  We have Burdi, Meyer, Reed, Graham and Jones who all throw 95 or higher.  Don't give up Arcia or Meyer for a RP (and I don't think the Reds would take less).  

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Man, not this year.  We have Burdi, Meyer, Reed, Graham and Jones who all throw 95 or higher.  Don't give up Arcia or Meyer for a RP (and I don't think the Reds would take less).  

 

None of those guys is one of the best RP on all of the planet.

[gunnarthor]

 

None of those guys is one of the best RP on all of the planet.

Arcia is one of the few LH hitters we have who can hit 25-30 HR and is still only 24.  Way too early to give up on him for 1.5 years of Chapman.  

 

There will be less sexy/less expensive bullpen pieces if we need to find one.  Jonathan Broxton could probably be had for a tenth the price of Chapman, for instance.

[Mike Sixel]

why trade for guys that aren't elite, given the depth they have?

 

if you won't trade for 1.5 years of an elite play, not sure why we'd ever trade.

[COtwin]

Not sure that I like trading young talent for bullpen help at this point.  The last time we made a major trade of young talent for a bullpen arm we got taken big time.

[gunnarthor]

 

why trade for guys that aren't elite, given the depth they have?

 

if you won't trade for 1.5 years of an elite play, not sure why we'd ever trade.

Sure, he'd look great here but he's not going to change much and I think Arcia would be a lot more valuable to us over the next 4 years he's still under team control for.  And the end of the day, elite play out of a relief pitcher isn't worth that much.  Trading Arcia isn't like trading Ramos, who was still a prospect.  Arcia can hit at the ML level with power.  That's sort of rare now.

 

Meyer + prospect I could understand but not Arcia.

[Cap'n Piranha]

If we're going to spend capital in the form of prospects, I'd much rather use it to get a front-line starter.  Sure it will cost more, but the payoff will be much higher than a relief arm, especially when a combo of Tonkin/Achter/Oliveros, and maybe even Zack Jones could be 90% as effective as Chapman.  Add in the fact that Chapman's numbers are down this year (k/9 is down, hits/9 is way up, as are bb/9), and I'm ok with what we have.  Now, if you can pry him loose for just Arcia, or someone like Travis Harrison, I'm good with that.

[drjim]

 

Sure, he'd look great here but he's not going to change much and I think Arcia would be a lot more valuable to us over the next 4 years he's still under team control for.  And the end of the day, elite play out of a relief pitcher isn't worth that much.  Trading Arcia isn't like trading Ramos, who was still a prospect.  Arcia can hit at the ML level with power.  That's sort of rare now.

 

Meyer + prospect I could understand but not Arcia.

 

All this is true, but getting someone like Chapman isn't like getting Capps either.

 

Arcia is probably the best trade chip, in terms of value and how he can be replaced. And this might actually be the last best chance to sell high on him. He has power, but not much defense and will already be a super 2 starting next year.

[Mike Sixel]

They aren't dealing enough to get a front line starter. Not gonna happen.

 

90% as effective for a RP is just below average for a RP, if that is your bar, they are already on the roster.

 

They have plenty of "good" players, if you are dealing, you need to deal for better than good. That is going to cost players. If you won't deal, what is your plan for the logjam of DH/1B types that are on the 40 man after next year?

[Lonestar]

Chapman would cost more like Berrios

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jabo-what-could-the-reds-get-for-chapman-and-cueto/

 

Also, re-read this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-traps-that-the-twins-need-to-avoid/

 

And most of you guys are the negative/critical ones.

[DaveW]

 

Sure, he'd look great here but he's not going to change much and I think Arcia would be a lot more valuable to us over the next 4 years he's still under team control for.  And the end of the day, elite play out of a relief pitcher isn't worth that much.  Trading Arcia isn't like trading Ramos, who was still a prospect.  Arcia can hit at the ML level with power.  That's sort of rare now.

 

Meyer + prospect I could understand but not Arcia.

I think you are overvaluing Arcia significantly, there is a very real chance that within 12 months Arcia is the odd man out in the OF/DH rotation. I think Buxton and Rosario almost certainly pass him, and if Hicks can even find a way to bat medicorely his defense puts him above him as well IMHO. That doesn't even include Sano/Mauer if one of them moves to the OF. And DH has Sano/Vargas/Pinto as options as well.

 

I like Arcia, but if the Reds wanted him as a center piece I think TR (and a lot of us here) would say yes immediately.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Chapman would cost more like Berrios

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jabo-what-could-the-reds-get-for-chapman-and-cueto/

 

Also, re-read this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-traps-that-the-twins-need-to-avoid/

 

And most of you guys are the negative/critical ones.

 

I wouldn't deal any prospects until July.....but if they are leading the division in July, then the rules change, imo, and Dave is wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you are overvaluing Arcia significantly, there is a very real chance that within 12 months Arcia is the odd man out in the OF/DH rotation. I think Buxton and Rosario almost certainly pass him, and if Hicks can even find a way to bat medicorely his defense puts him above him as well IMHO. That doesn't even include Sano/Mauer if one of them moves to the OF. And DH has Sano/Vargas/Pinto as options as well.

 

I like Arcia, but if the Reds wanted him as a center piece I think TR (and a lot of us here) would say yes immediately.

 

not to mention Kepler, BW3, and a random FA target......I get why people want to keep Arcia, but most posts read "don't trade any good prospects" imo....which means don't bother trading, imo.

[owenowain]

 

Hmmmm.....I'd put him about 4th on the "realistic dream candidate list" I think.

 

Meyer and Kepler, would you do that? It would take something like that I bet. I would not do that, I don't think. What is his contract status?

Not Kepler, I have high hopes for him.

[DaveW]

 

 

If we're going to spend capital in the form of prospects, I'd much rather use it to get a front-line starter.  Sure it will cost more, but the payoff will be much higher than a relief arm, especially when a combo of Tonkin/Achter/Oliveros, and maybe even Zack Jones could be 90% as effective as Chapman.  Add in the fact that Chapman's numbers are down this year (k/9 is down, hits/9 is way up, as are bb/9), and I'm ok with what we have.  Now, if you can pry him loose for just Arcia, or someone like Travis Harrison, I'm good with that.

15.3 k/9 in a "down year" is something I will take all day! His h/9 is way up because of an unlucky .391 BABIP, and I like our prospects as much as anyone, but the reality is there is maybe 2 or 3 RP in the MAJORS right now who are as 90% as effective as Chapman, we have one in Perkins but we know how rare that is.

 

Saying Tonkin could be a 90% Chapman is almost as disingenuous as stating that Arcia could be 90% of a Giancarlo Stanton etc.

[Winston Smith]

If you are going to trade for pitcher it should be Hamels, imo.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you are going to trade for pitcher it should be Hamels, imo.

 

You think there is any chance of that? so, you would not deal for Chapman?

[HitInAPinch]

Ah, another "Homer" trade scenario

First, no way the Reds trade him.  Not for a package of unproven talent like Sano, Buxton and Meyer.  And you'd have to toss in Perkins, as well.

And I'm really curious why you would trade for a pitcher like Chapman and make him a setup guy.....

[DaveW]

Ah, another "Homer" trade scenario

First, no way the Reds trade him. Not for a package of unproven talent like Sano, Buxton and Meyer. And you'd have to toss in Perkins, as well.

And I'm really curious why you would trade for a pitcher like Chapman and make him a setup guy.....

Uh.... The Reds would 100% without any doubt would take Sano or Buxton for Chapman.

[TheLeviathan]

Given how hard some of our bullpen arms are being ridden, I think an early deal for a reliever may be a very wise decision.

 

Doesn't have to be Chapman, but an aggressive move in that regard would be one I welcome this year.  

[nicksaviking]

There's never going to be room enough to give all the youngsters a fair shot. I'd trade Kepler/Harrison/Arcia/Rosario/Hicks/Pinto types even if we don't get equal value, because I really doubt we are ever going to see what some of these guys can do if they don't get consistant 500 or so at bats in a season, and as it is, most of these guys will be lucky to get half that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's never going to be room enough to give all the youngsters a fair shot. I'd trade Kepler/Harrison/Arcia/Rosario/Hicks/Pinto types even if we don't get equal value, because I really doubt we are ever going to see what some of these guys can do if they don't get consistant 500 or so at bats in a season, and as it is, most of these guys will be lucky to get half that.

 

This, 100% this.

[nicksaviking]

 

And most of you guys are the negative/critical ones.

Seriously, this thread too?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Whatever Aroldis will cost, it's too much for a guy who pitches 70 innings.

 

He's a fantastic reliever, there's no doubt about that... But for the price of Chapman, you can pick up a less-talented starter or position player who will have more of an impact because they either play every game or have overwhelming control of a game outcome every fifth day.

 

It'd be great to have him but even if he pitches zeroes for the entirety of the season, it's unlikely he'll return the value you paid for him.