Article: 2015 Projections and Rankings: Danny Santana

[Seth Stohs]

Today we complete our projections, predictions and rankings for the Minnesota Twins infield by considering shortstop Danny Santana. My sense is that Santana might be the most polarizing in the series. We all know his 2014 rookie season with the Twins surpassed anything he had done in his seven minor league seasons, and he did it at a new position. What is in store for him in 2015?MINNESOTA TWINS – DANNY SANTANA

 

Coming into 2014, Danny Santana had a lot to prove. He was an easy choice to be added to the Twins 40-man roster following 2013, but his shortstop defense was more than shaky. He has great speed and range and a very strong arm, but struggled most with routine plays. Offensively, his speed helps him to hit for average and he has extra base pop. However, he seemingly has an allergy to walking.

 

So, in early May, shortly after he was a surprise call up to the Twins (he had played just 24 games in AAA), he found himself playing, and learning, centerfield. Before long, he was the Twins new starting centerfielder. Not only did he represent himself well in the field, he put up better offensive numbers with the Twins than he had at any level of the minor leagues. Although he didn’t walk much, he showed a good ability to take quality at-bats, swinging at strikes. He even showed surprising power.

 

In 2015, he is being moved back to shortstop, where he remains a question mark defensively. Many also wonder whether he’ll be able to put up numbers anywhere near what he did as a rookie. Can he hit for average? Will he learn to take a few more walks? Can he maintain the power he showed in 2014?

 

I have a feeling that the projections regarding Santana will be as polarizing as any Twins player. So, here are the projections of our Twins Daily writers:

 

Seth – .284/.317/.423 (.740) with 38 doubles and 6 HR.

Nick – .260/.300/.380 (.680) with 30 doubles and 5 HR.

Parker – .270/.320/.400 (.720) with 32 doubles and 10 HR.

John – .273/.319/.381 (.700) with 30 doubles and 6 HR

 

 

AL CENTRAL SHORTSTOP

 

Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics

Chicago – Alexei Ramirez – 33 - .273/.305/.408 (.713) with 35 doubles, 15-HR

Cleveland – Jose Ramirez – 22 - .262/.300/.346 (.646) with 10 doubles, 2-HR

Detroit – Jose Iglesias – 25 - .303/.349/.386 (.735) with 16 doubles, 3-HR (2013 stats, missed 2014)

Kansas City – Alcides Escobar – 28 - .285/.317/.377 (.694) with 34 doubles, 3-HR

 

 

AL CENTRAL SHORTSTOP RANKINGS

 

#1 – Alcides Escobar – Kansas City

#2 – Danny Santana – Minnesota

#3 – Alexei Ramirez – Chicago

#4 – Jose Ramirez – Cleveland

#5 – Jose Iglesius - Detroit

 

 

NOW IT’S YOUR TURN

 

Give it some thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Danny Santana in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central shortstop? Of course, then discuss with the rest of the Twins Daily community. Finally, check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions.

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS, PROJECTIONS AND RANKINGS

 

Kurt Suzuki

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

 

Click here to view the article

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I have money on "under .272".

[halfchest]

It would be nice to add the Twins players 2014 statistics to compare to the other guys in the league on these articles.  Just a suggestion as I find myself going to baseball-reference to double check what their line was from last year while reading these articles.   #firstworldproblems

[ScrapTheNickname]

Danny Santana is an ice-water-in-the-veins kind of player, therefore I expect him to buck the odds and show that 2014 was no fluke.

 

.315 / .350 / .475 / .825.

 

Defensively though he doesn't appear to have a soft glove, but I'm looking forward to seeing more of him at SS.

 

(Also, I realize the BABIP issue, but for reasons of April Optimism I choose to ignore it.)

[Shane Wahl]

.277/.334/.404 (.738) with 30 doubles and 7 homers. 29 steals.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's hard to make sense of what he did in 2014. He posted an .825 OPS after never breaking .750 in the minors. His career minor league OPS is .702. That's acceptable for a SS, but not one with questionable defense. I have to think he's going to regress offensively, though in what few occasions I got to see him hit, he was tattooing everything. He's never been one for plate discipline, so I highly doubt that he reverses course here, though I think it would be beneficial for him to do so.

 

Unfortunately, at the end of the day, I think he ends up in AAA after posting a >.650 OPS for a month while playing questionable defense at SS. I hope I'm wrong there.

[jimmer]

'It's hard to make sense of what he did in 2014.'

 

His BABIP explains those numbers.  Over 100 points better than league average

[Boom Boom]

.250/.285/.370... the BA will go down and the lack of walks will continue.

[jimmer]

I think he ends up back in CF after our less than inspiring CF platoon fizzles and then Escobar slides back to shortstop.

 

.270/.315/.400

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I expect Santana will be playing in CF regularly by May 1...until Buxton is ready.  Escobar will be SS and have a decent year.  Both will regress a bit offensively in 2015 IMHO

[HitInAPinch]

 

It's hard to make sense of what he did in 2014. He posted an .825 OPS after never breaking .750 in the minors. His career minor league OPS is .702. That's acceptable for a SS, but not one with questionable defense. I have to think he's going to regress offensively, though in what few occasions I got to see him hit, he was tattooing everything. He's never been one for plate discipline, so I highly doubt that he reverses course here, though I think it would be beneficial for him to do so.

Unfortunately, at the end of the day, I think he ends up in AAA after posting a >.650 OPS for a month while playing questionable defense at SS. I hope I'm wrong there.

 

I've had a long standing belief that because MLB pitchers throw more strikes consistently than MiLB pitchers, some call-ups are more successful hitters against MLB pitchers.  Especially guys with quick wrists like Santana.  405 AB's are a pretty good sample size.  I believe that with a year of maturity, Santana's hitting will be improved, if he can reduce his strikeout rate.  I'm thinking .300+ BA, 35+ 2B's and 25+ SB.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

I think he ends up back in CF after our less than inspiring CF platoon fizzles and then Escobar slides back to shortstop.

 

.270/.315/.400

 

The whole OF situation is mind-boggling to me. 

[Mike Frasier Law]

265/305/380 12 HR 29 sb.

[troyhobbs]

I can't even guess what Santana is going to do. His BABIP wasn't just crazy luck as he was lacing everything last year plus he has good speed (and some was luck). It's probably not sustainable but he's super athletic and it sounds like he works hard so hopefully he continues to be a total beast. I don't want to see him in CF as the team is at least a couple years away from contention so rather see him get polished up at SS and Rosario/Hicks hold down CF until Buxton. 

[jimmer]

 

I expect Santana will be playing in CF regularly by May 1...until Buxton is ready.  Escobar will be SS and have a decent year.  Both will regress a bit offensively in 2015 IMHO

If Buxton is up 1 May I will streak through my town :-)

[diehardtwinsfan]

'It's hard to make sense of what he did in 2014.'

 

His BABIP explains those numbers.  Over 100 points better than league average

Point in your favor. I was referring to the idea that he seemed pretty lucky. The flip side, every time I saw him hit, he hit it hard. It's not like he was leggting out a few singles or getting some seeing eye hits.

[jimmer]

 

Point in your favor. I was referring to the idea that he seemed pretty lucky. The flip side, every time I saw him hit, he hit it hard. It's not like he was leggting out a few singles or getting some seeing eye hits.

With his speed, he's normally going to sit higher than average on BABIP, but even if he drops down this year to a very good .320-.330 BABIP, that kills his OBP.  Having a BABIP over .400 is just crazy.

[bird]

 

If Buxton is up 1 May I will streak through my town :-)

 

 

Let's hope your town can dodge THAT bullet.

[jimmer]

 

Let's hope your town can dodge THAT bullet.

yeah, nobody wants to see that. :-)

[jokin]

 

With his speed, he's normally going to sit higher than average on BABIP, but even if he drops down this year to a very good .320-.330 BABIP, that kills his OBP.  Having a BABIP over .400 is just crazy.

 

 

For me, SS Eric Aybar sets the low bar for Santana with his 2014 numbers:

 

.278/.321/.379/(.700)  BABIP .297

 

It's entirely reasonable to see Santana come close or even likely exceed these numbers- the power number by quite a bit more.  I think it's somewhat significant to note, that Santana's BABIP numbers jumped from previous minor league seasons in both AA and AAA.  In some 700 PAs over two seasons, his combined BABIP was ~.360.  Even a drop down to a .330 OBP would still mean that Santana could still OPS in the .730-.750 range which would place Santana among the top 4 SS at the plate.

[jimmer]

 

  Even a drop down to a .330 OBP would still mean that Santana could still OPS in the .730-.750 range which would place Santana among the top 4 SS at the plate.

And this was my guess.  .270/.315/.400. So we aren't too far off on the OPS.

[dxpavelka]

 

If Buxton is up 1 May I will streak through my town :-)

I beleive the quote said Santana would be playing CF by May 1 and made no reference to Buxton being up by May 1.

[jimmer]

 

I beleive the quote said Santana would be playing CF by May 1 and made no reference to Buxton being up by May 1.

you're right, though it's much less funny now.  buzz kill :-)

[Paul Pleiss]

Seth, I love your optimism, but no. I think .260/.317/.380 is much more likely.

[Hrbowski]

.297/.333/.386 (.719) with 22 doubles and 2 home runs.

[Loosey]

.266/.308/.397 9 HR, 28 Doubles.

 

If he plays most an entire year in the bigs I think he gets to this.  Speed will get him a respectable Batting Average.  Without his speed I think he is a .240-.250 hitter.  But he has speed and infield singles count the same as lasers to the outfield. 

[Willihammer]

.330/.380/.500 and the AL batting title.

[Buford_T_Justice]

It's hard to make sense of what he did in 2014. He posted an .825 OPS after never breaking .750 in the minors. His career minor league OPS is .702. That's acceptable for a SS, but not one with questionable defense. I have to think he's going to regress offensively, though in what few occasions I got to see him hit, he was tattooing everything. He's never been one for plate discipline, so I highly doubt that he reverses course here, though I think it would be beneficial for him to do so.Unfortunately, at the end of the day, I think he ends up in AAA after posting a >.650 OPS for a month while playing questionable defense at SS. I hope I'm wrong there.

 

Geez, this is (unfortunately) looking pretty accurate. Do you do stock tips too?