Watching the DFA list

[jorgenswest]

Last year JD Martinez was DFA'd and now is a starting LF for the Tigers.

 

Twins should be looking for help at catcher, centerfield and the bullpen. They should be looking for younger players with upside.

 

First up...

 

Gary Brown was DFA'd by the Giants. He plays center field. He bats right handed. He is 26 and made top prospect lists a few years back.

 

Felix Doubront was released by the Cubs. The 27 year old left handed pitcher had some success a few years back.

 

Every one of these players will be flawed or they wouldn't have been waived. Someone will be this year's JD Martinez. I hope the Twins will risk losing an older mediocre veteran in hopes of finding that player.

[Shane Wahl]

I pass on both of them. Brown is close to being OK, but strikes out way too much and also seems to get caught stealing a strangely high number of times, seriously negating those steals. 

 

Doubront is about done. 

[jorgenswest]

I pass on both of them. Brown is close to being OK, but strikes out way too much and also seems to get caught stealing a strangely high number of times, seriously negating those steals. 

 

Doubront is about done.

 

I think you will be able to say this about every player that is DFA'd. You could have said it about Martinez last year. You could have said it about Schafer. You can probably still say it about Schafer who at -1.9 will have the lowest WAR among all players on 25 man rosters. If they keep Nunez, he will have a chance to catch him. Among active players with over 1000 PAs, they are the lowest in terms of WAR.

 

Whoever the Twins might claim will have a small chance of upside. That small chance is better than some of the older players on the roster. The bar for claiming Brown or any 4th OF is Robinson.

 

The bar for claiming any pitcher is extremely low also. The Twins have a reliever on the roster who has the lowest career WAR at -1.8 of any pitcher in the history baseball with over 100 innings and no starts. He might not even be the first guy they should drop out of the bullpen.

 

Note: I used baseball reference's play index and corresponding WAR.

[jokin]

 

Last year JD Martinez was DFA'd and now is a starting LF for the Tigers.

Twins should be looking for help at catcher, centerfield and the bullpen. They should be looking for younger players with upside.

First up...

Gary Brown was DFA'd by the Giants. He plays center field. He bats right handed. He is 26 and made top prospect lists a few years back.

 

 

I'd think this is one that would be a no-brainer to put a claim on at zero acquisition cost.   Hit the ball a ton in college ball, 1st Rd. draft pick and on multi-Top 100 lists after 2 years in pro ball, accelerated to the Giants #1 prospect, pre-2012, hit the proverbial wall in AA, and it looks like he's finally begun to figure things out after two seasons in AAA, hit well in a very brief call-up in September for the Giants.... listed as having plus-plus speed and a plus defensive CF.... and still only 26. 

 

A change of scenery might be just the ticket for Brown.

 

I don't see the downside if his glove is as good as advertised.   Nice immediate insurance in CF- at least one, or more likely both, of the current guys seem destined for failure.   No guarantees on Hicks turning it around right away- if ever, and what if Buxton isn't ready until 2017?

 

 

[TheDean]

 

I don't see the downside if his glove is as good as advertised.   Nice immediate insurance in CF- at least one, or more likely both, of the current guys seem destined for failure.   No guarantees on Hicks turning it around right away- if ever, and what if Buxton isn't ready until 2017?

 

I agree. If they can afford a 40-man spot, I'd go for it (if he has options). Not sure that he actually has a leg up on Robinson, but he's younger and has a better pedigree. Maybe it's overcompensation for past woes, but I like the idea of stockpiling a few CFers at AAA.

 

He even OPSd over .700 at AAA last year. The Twins have one full time OFer returning to AAA who reached that benchmark there last year (Ortiz). Though Hicks should certainly hit that mark if he's starting in Rochester. Same for Rosario.

[jokin]

 

I agree. If they can afford a 40-man spot, I'd go for it (if he has options). Not sure that he actually has a leg up on Robinson, but he's younger and has a better pedigree. Maybe it's overcompensation for past woes, but I like the idea of stockpiling a few CFers at AAA.

 

He even OPSd over .700 at AAA last year. The Twins have one full time OFer returning to AAA who reached that benchmark there last year (Ortiz). Though Hicks should certainly hit that mark if he's starting in Rochester. Same for Rosario.

 

Yep, you're right, but he is 4 years younger than Robinson and yep again, his pedigree suggests that there is still enough intrigue that his hit tool might finally spark, definitely can't say the same about Shane.  And although I like the Twins thinking aggressively about starting out Rosario in AAA, he never proved competent, let alone mastering of AA pitching, so giving Brown his spot in AAA might be the best for everyone, and as you said, go a long way to taking another step to avoiding the Twins CF Follies of 2014.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree. If they can afford a 40-man spot, I'd go for it (if he has options).

While players getting DFA'd frequently do not, Gary Brown indeed does have options left.  In fact, I believe he has two (best as I can tell, he was added to the 40-man roster following the 2013 season).  This must strictly be a move by the Giants to open up a 40-man roster spot.  And all it would cost the Twins would be a 40-man roster spot (and presumably a spot in the Rochester outfield).

 

Now, it should be noted that DFA does not mean a player is necessarily available freely yet.  The Giants can trade him without placing him on waivers.  I believe they can also revoke waivers on him if he is claimed, although they'd still have to trade, release, or restore him back to their 40-man roster before the 10 days are up (or waive him again, perhaps irrevocably?).

[Kwak]

Brown vs. Hicks is the question. Hmm, the answer is unclear to me. Maybe I should just wit and see if this "problem" can be solved internally--rather than dipping into "Ryan's Dumpster".

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interestingly, I forgot that Eduardo Nunez actually had a minor league option remaining last year when the Yankees DFA'd him -- thus the Twins initially optioned him to AAA for a month.

 

And actually, I am not sure if the Twins actually claimed him off waivers, or if the Yankees simply traded him to us.  (Or some combination of the two, if the Yankees threatened to pull him back off waivers...)

[Shane Wahl]

Ok, fair enough. We are talking about replacing Robinson, and I would definitely be on board with that. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

That the Giants would rather have the 40-man roster spot than simply option Brown to AAA suggests something about their talent evaluation of him.  His numbers the past two years are particularly bad considering he was playing in the PCL -- Fangraphs gives him wRC+ marks of 72 and 88, roughly the equivalent of the Twins' Eric Farris over the same years, despite Brown having a raw OPS about 50 points higher.

[jokin]

 

That the Giants would rather have the 40-man roster spot than simply option Brown to AAA suggests something about their talent evaluation of him.  His numbers the past two years are particularly bad considering he was playing in the PCL -- Fangraphs gives him wRC+ marks of 72 and 88, roughly the equivalent of the Twins' Eric Farris over the same years, despite Brown having a raw OPS about 50 points higher.

 

I think we all agree that there's a reason he's a DFA and potentially on the waiver wire,  he's definitely not an instant JD Martinez panacea.  Given the Twins state of affairs in the OF though, he is intriguing enough to find out if he could be a better short-term bolsterer.

[Rosterman]

Alex Pressly is available! Only a pro-rated portion of his arbitration salary needed to cover!

 

Of course, doing a waiver claim means you have to make a 40-man spot, which is why it is easier to get players through waivers this time of year, unless they are truly that 26th player in an organization and worthy of a 25-man spot, or unless you are the Toronto Blue Jays who keep a 40-man spot open for claims, then re-waiver the guy to assign him to the minor leagues so they can claim another.

 

But, again, the Twins have 3-4 guys on the 25-man roster that probably don't have to be there and another 4-5 that won't be on the 40-man next year. So, go fiure. In with some new, out with some old? 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

I'm interested in Brown as he's a former top propsect who lost his luster but can play CF.  On the other hand, that's basically Aaron Hicks last year, and Jordan Schaffer a couple years before that and Shane Robinson before that.  Add him to the collection and then snag Joe Benson when the Braves eventually DFA him too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think we all agree that there's a reason he's a DFA and potentially on the waiver wire,  he's definitely not an instant JD Martinez panacea.  Given the Twins state of affairs in the OF though, he is intriguing enough to find out if he could be a better short-term bolsterer.

Agreed.  I was just giving some context to his AAA performance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But, again, the Twins have 3-4 guys on the 25-man roster that probably don't have to be there and another 4-5 that won't be on the 40-man next year. So, go fiure. In with some new, out with some old? 

Good point.  Carrying AAA relievers for multiple years on the 40-man roster is probably not a great use of resources.

[jokin]

 

I'm interested in Brown as he's a former top propsect who lost his luster but can play CF.  On the other hand, that's basically Aaron Hicks last year, and Jordan Schaffer a couple years before that and Shane Robinson before that.  Add him to the collection and then snag Joe Benson when the Braves eventually DFA him too.

 

LOLLLLL

[ashbury]

 

And all it would cost the Twins would be a 40-man roster spot

Sometimes it seems like the entire 40-man roster was constructed with this logic.

[jokin]

 

 

 

But, again, the Twins have 3-4 guys on the 25-man roster that probably don't have to be there and another 4-5 that won't be on the 40-man next year. So, go fiure. In with some new, out with some old? 

 

Good point.  Carrying AAA relievers for multiple years on the 40-man roster is probably not a great use of resources.

 

Agree with you both, there are going to be multiple roster days of reckoning- both in-season and in the next offseason, dead weight in the case of some Rochester arms as well as some replacement-level role-types both with Rochester and the Twins (finally). 

 

Spycake, do you know how many prospects are on the short list for "must-adds" next offseason?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Spycake, do you know how many prospects are on the short list for "must-adds" next offseason?

Nope.  But I do know how to use Jeremy's Organization Chart!  And the handy Rule 5 2015 filter on the left side:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/organization-chart.html?sort_col=field_26&sort_order=asc&per_page=500&filters[37][2015]=1

 

Bard, Luke

Baxendale, D.J.

Duffey, Tyler

Haar, Bryan

Harrison, Travis

Hicks, Dalton

Jones, Zack

Melotakis, Mason

Muren, Alexander

Polanco, Joel

Rogers, Taylor

Valera, Rafael

Vielma, Engelb

Wade, Logan

Walker, Adam

 

EDIT TO ADD: those are the guys newly eligible in 2015.  There will also be carryover guys in their second or third year of eligibility who we may want to protect, like Goodrum, Michael, Salcedo, Wimmers, etc.

[nicksaviking]

 

Nope.  But I do know how to use Jeremy's Organization Chart!  And the handy Rule 5 2015 filter on the left side:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/organization-chart.html?sort_col=field_26&sort_order=asc&per_page=500&filters[37][2015]=1

 

Bard, Luke

Baxendale, D.J.

Duffey, Tyler

Haar, Bryan

Harrison, Travis

Hicks, Dalton

Jones, Zack

Melotakis, Mason

Muren, Alexander

Polanco, Joel

Rogers, Taylor

Valera, Rafael

Vielma, Engelb

Wade, Logan

Walker, Adam

 

Not a banner class.  There's a few there that must be added, but a majority are still to uncertain, raw or lacking upside to need to worry about losing.  Of course the team always tends to have a different vision for who gets added than we do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also next spring, Tonkin, May, and Hicks should be out of options, as may be Herrmann, Pinto, or Arcia if any on them spend 20 days on optional assignment this year.

[jokin]

 

Nope.  But I do know how to use Jeremy's Organization Chart!  And the handy Rule 5 2015 filter on the left side:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/organization-chart.html?sort_col=field_26&sort_order=asc&per_page=500&filters[37][2015]=1

 

Bard, Luke

Baxendale, D.J.

Duffey, Tyler

Haar, Bryan

Harrison, Travis

Hicks, Dalton

Jones, Zack

Melotakis, Mason

Muren, Alexander

Polanco, Joel

Rogers, Taylor

Valera, Rafael

Vielma, Engelb

Wade, Logan

Walker, Adam

 

EDIT TO ADD: those are the guys newly eligible in 2015.  There will also be carryover guys in their second or third year of eligibility who we may want to protect, like Goodrum, Michael, Salcedo, Wimmers, etc.

 

Thanks alot- I haven't checked Jeremy's site lately as it appears it's been dormant over the offseason.  

 

As I suspected, there aren't many "must adds", but you could make a decent case for at least a couple position players and a couple of arms who might have good enough years that makes it worthwhile for the Twins to strongly consider protecting- plus breakout performances by some of the top guys who force their way on.  More roster turnover coming.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sometimes it seems like the entire 40-man roster was constructed with this logic.

 

As succinct an explanation for many of our woes as I can imagine.  Well done.

[jorgenswest]

How about Louis Coleman?

 

In his favor, he has a 3.25 ERA and 185 strike outs in 174 major league innings. He would be under team control until 2018. He will be 29. On the other hand, he wasn't very good in 34 innings last year.

 

The Twins have the older Pelfrey, Stauffer and Boyer under team control through this season. Wouldn't Coleman be a better fit? Are they so valuable that it isn't worth risking the upside of Coleman?

[Shane Wahl]

 

Nope.  But I do know how to use Jeremy's Organization Chart!  And the handy Rule 5 2015 filter on the left side:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/organization-chart.html?sort_col=field_26&sort_order=asc&per_page=500&filters[37][2015]=1

 

Bard, Luke

Baxendale, D.J.

Duffey, Tyler

Haar, Bryan

Harrison, Travis

Hicks, Dalton

Jones, Zack

Melotakis, Mason

Muren, Alexander

Polanco, Joel

Rogers, Taylor

Valera, Rafael

Vielma, Engelb

Wade, Logan

Walker, Adam

 

EDIT TO ADD: those are the guys newly eligible in 2015.  There will also be carryover guys in their second or third year of eligibility who we may want to protect, like Goodrum, Michael, Salcedo, Wimmers, etc.

 

An initial list would be: Bard, Duffey, Harrison, Hicks, Jones, Melotakis, Rogers, Vielma, and Walker, with Goodrum, Michael, Salcedo, and Wimmers too.

 

I do think that at least a few of these guys will be involved in trades this year.

Duffey, Harrison, Melotakis, Goodrum, Salcedo, and Michael are guys to go in packages involving veterans like Plouffe, Hunter, Escobar, Suzuki, Fien, and Nolasco. Each vet-prospect pairing could net some top 300 prospect.

[Danchat]

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Twins are taking a look at recently DFA'd pitcher Dustin McGowan. He's 33 and has spent time both starting and relieving. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How about Louis Coleman?

Coleman was out of options, so he would have required a 25-man roster spot immediately.

 

This is where some 25-man roster flexibility would have been nice, and in fact it could give us an advantage over other teams (who might really be in short-term "win now" mode) in auditioning waiver claims.  Instead we have a bullpen and bench full of players we can't option to even make temporary room to look at someone like Coleman.

 

In any case, Coleman cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA by KC:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/royals-place-louis-coleman-on-waivers.html

[Kwak]

 

Coleman was out of options, so he would have required a 25-man roster spot immediately.

 

This is where some 25-man roster flexibility would have been nice, and in fact it could give us an advantage over other teams (who might really be in short-term "win now" mode) in auditioning waiver claims.  Instead we have a bullpen and bench full of players we can't option to even make temporary room to look at someone like Coleman.

 

In any case, Coleman cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA by KC:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/royals-place-louis-coleman-on-waivers.html

I suspect that the Twins have several "Colemans" on their 40 man Roster that can be safely out-righted to AAA.

[adorduan]

 

Last year JD Martinez was DFA'd and now is a starting LF for the Tigers.

Twins should be looking for help at catcher, centerfield and the bullpen. They should be looking for younger players with upside.

First up...

Gary Brown was DFA'd by the Giants. He plays center field. He bats right handed. He is 26 and made top prospect lists a few years back.

Felix Doubront was released by the Cubs. The 27 year old left handed pitcher had some success a few years back.

Every one of these players will be flawed or they wouldn't have been waived. Someone will be this year's JD Martinez. I hope the Twins will risk losing an older mediocre veteran in hopes of finding that player.

 

Cardinals claimed Gary Brown.