Winter Decisions: The Outfield

[jorgenswest]

There is no dispute that the Twins need d to address the outfield this winter. Willingham was gone. Santana was moving to shortstop. Only Arcia looked like he would be a given in one of the three spots.

 

The Twins chose to bring in Torii Hunter and Shane Robinson.

 

The Hunter move meant moving Arcia to a new position. It guaranteed that the defense in the corners would continue to be near league bottom. It did give than a right handed bat to go with Plouffe and Dozier. They took on the real risk of significant decline with that bat. They hoped on his ability to mentor.

 

They could have pursued Colby Rasmus. He ended up signing a one year deal for 8 million. Rasmus comes with the risk of a very up and down career. Rasmus' ability to play CF would have lessened the need for a defense only Shane Robinson. An additional outfielder that might be used as a bench bat could have been pursued.

 

Arcia, Schafer and Hunter with Robinson on the bench

 

Schafer, Rasmus and Arcia with a better bat on the bench and possibly 2 million dollars more to spend.

 

Did Ryan make the right call for the OF? Hunter's bat and mentoring ability is going to have to make up for a significant drop in defense.

[gunnarthor]

I'd certainly rather have Hunter over Rasmus.  Rasmus already burned bridges with both the Cards and Blue Jays, the defensive numbers didn't like him much better either (and, unlike Hunter, there's not as much argument that there is noise in those numbers).  He's basically had one good year since 2011 (fWAR numbers by years - .5, .9, 5.0, .8) and a huge headcase. 

[TheLeviathan]

We definitely should have sought better CF options.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

A lot of teams have outfielders who can both hit and field their position at league averages. Twins enter another year without having such an outfielder. Outfield seems to be another area the Twins are marching to a different beat from the rest of the league. Escobar is not an outfielder. I also wonder if Hicks wouldn't have been a better choice for 25th man than Nunez, if outfield defense depth would have been a bigger consideration. I am concerned that the Twins are putting too much faith in Buxton's ability to fix this mess for them.

[jay]

We definitely should have sought better CF options.

Sure. How and who?

[stringer bell]

I wasn't on board with the Hunter signing, but I wasn't in favor of Rasmus. I wanted to see a right handed hitter who played good defense and was capable of playing center field.

[jay]

I wasn't on board with the Hunter signing, but I wasn't in favor of Rasmus. I wanted to see a right handed hitter who played good defense and was capable of playing center field.

Who was that?

[Rosterman]

Well, I'm not totally sold that Arcia will put up a solid year. He may still be a project in process. Kennys Vargas is no a total shoo-in as designated hitter either. We all know that Hunter doesn't want to JUST DH, but signing him allowed the Twins to give him a place to play if his outfield defense isn't top notch. But what the Twins needed to do was sign another big bat, who could play the corner outfield AND back-up first base, so Joltin' Joe could also DH at times.

 

That did not happen.

 

We have a couple guys in Schafer and Robinson who are the continued second-coming of such stalwarts as Lew Ford, Dustin Mohr, Darrin Mastroanni, Jason Repko, Jason Pridie, Justin Tyner and the ilk who can hold down the position on a semi-regular basis for short-term and, if lucky, put up some good numbers in their respective strong categories, or fade quickly into the mists.

 

I'm GLAD to see Hicks demoted to AAA Rochester and he'll have every opportunity to work out whatever his issues are and if he does, come back strong. The Twins also save some service time issues (would Hicks be out-of-options next year, or the year after?). I almost wish Rosario did a half-way decent job to get a looksee out of spring training (similar to Hicks). But now he will go back to AA ball and have to show HE IS better than Hicks, the so-called five-tool guy who could also pitch but didn't want to. Shades of Joe Benson (where is he?).

 

Of course, at this point, I would rather see Danny Santana return (temporarily) to centerfield and Escobar play short everyday, rather than trying to find an out-of-position spot for him to play every other day. It also means we have a bench spot for the lump called Nunez, but we have no other options, do we? Herrmann or Pinto or both (keep Fryer off the 40-man). 

 

Going into the season, the Twins needed a centerfielder (although they had one in Santana), a solid bench bat who could play the outfield or first base (they didn't get one), maybe a solid bat who could play a corner outfield spot (they got Unter), a backup catcher than would allow Pinto to spend time in the minors to increase his stock and who could throw out runners (failed) and to reimagine the bullpen...which is being put together like an old Ray Harryhausen stop-motion epic rather than with slick, fast, sure to dazzle CGI effects who are waiting in the minor league wings (I hope).

 

I hope Arcia, Santana and Vargas produce. I hope Pinto comes back. I hope Rosario and Hicks push the AAAA-duo to reserve and Hunter to the bench. I can't wait to see Reed or Burdi or any of the other names who won't be the next Slama.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wasn't on board with the Hunter signing, but I wasn't in favor of Rasmus. I wanted to see a right handed hitter who played good defense and was capable of playing center field.

Hunter is a right handed hitter, "played" (past tense) good defense, and is definitely capable of running out to the CF position.

[gunnarthor]

 

A lot of teams have outfielders who can both hit and field their position at league averages.

That's not really true though.  Of OFers with 400 AB at their position, only

17 out of 34 CFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

9 out of 31 LFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

7 out of 30 RFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

And only 29 out of 81 OFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

Part of that is b/c defensive numbers are still pretty rough, year to year (Adam Jones went from constant negative numbers to a positive 9 last year) and part is because measurements are still not that accurate.

[Thrylos]

 

Who was that?

 

This guy.  .302/.353/.498 last season 22.3 career UZR/150 (or enter your preferred defensive metric here, including eyeballs) at CF, and being replaced by a rookie phenom. 

 

Not only free agents count.  Ryan should be able to package Hicks with another body (or the 5 prospects that were cut today) and get AJ Pollock from Arizona.  But he does not trade prospects.

[jimmer]

 

I'd certainly rather have Hunter over Rasmus.  Rasmus already burned bridges with both the Cards and Blue Jays, the defensive numbers didn't like him much better either (and, unlike Hunter, there's not as much argument that there is noise in those numbers).  

So there's noise in the almost 40 year old's poor defensive metrics suggesting it's not a true evaluation but no noise in the defensive metrics of a guy more than a decade younger?  The need to attempt to debunk the info telling us our soon to be 40 year old's defense is bad is getting a bit sad. I wonder of people will believe their eyes this year when they see if for themselves.  Don't need metrics to tell us he's bad now.

 

If he hadn't been a Twin previously I doubt the Twins even sign him and if they did, I doubt too many are defending his bad defense unless they just felt the need to defend every move Ryan makes, which happens I guess.

[jimmer]

A almost 40 year old SHOULD be seeing his defensive abilities drop.  This isn't a shot, it's just how things normally go.

[jimmer]

It's going to be another 'wait till next year' kind of season. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure. How and who?

 

 I hate this question because embedded in it is this assumption we can know who was or was not available.  I can assure you of this - if you think Shane Robinson was the best we could do I have a very, very hard time believing that.

 

Pollock, Bourjos, Dyson, Gentry, or Maybin or anyone that is a better complement to Schaefer.  The idea that the best we could do in CF is Hicks, Schaefer, and Robinson is just ridiculous.  

[jay]

I hate this question because embedded in it is this assumption we can know who was or was not available. I can assure you of this - if you think Shane Robinson was the best we could do I have a very, very hard time believing that.

Well we can easily know who was available via free agency of any type, although that requires mutual interest. If the answer is they should have traded for someone, we should be able to readily identify candidates that would have the right mix of age, contract, and availability. Problem is, that mix is probably a bit different in many eyes.

 

If we're talking about what the Twins should have done, we should be able to talk in specifics. If we can't, it's fair to ask whether or not we're getting to the right conclusion in the first place.

[jay]

Shane Robinson wasn't signed to be the CF solution. That solution is what I take to be implied in the type of statement that "they should have addressed CF". Obviously, he's not that and isn't intended to be that.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well we can easily know who was available via free agency of any type, although that requires mutual interest. If the answer is they should have traded for someone, we should be able to readily identify candidates that would have the right mix of age, contract, and availability. Problem is, that mix is probably a bit different in many eyes.

If we're talking about what the Twins should have done, we should be able to talk in specifics. If we can't, it's fair to ask whether or not we're getting to the right conclusion in the first place.

 

But we can't talk in specifics about anything in your first paragraph.  I don't have specific names because I'm not the one getting phone calls and neither were you.  I could say Ben Revere and we have no idea if that was a possibility, but I know this:

 

The odds of Shane Robinson, Jordan Schaefer, and Aaron Hicks being the best we could do coming into this season are extremely remote.  And it should have been a priority to improve both our starter at that spot and our Aaron Hicks insurance.  We did neither.

[jay]

The odds of Shane Robinson, Jordan Schaefer, and Aaron Hicks being the best we could do coming into this season are extremely remote. And it should have been a priority to improve that spot.

If the priority was to do anything possible to improve that spot for this season, I'm sure you're right.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If the priority was to do anything possible to improve that spot for this season, I'm sure you're right.

 

The original question was "should we?" and my response was most definitely.  A third consecutive year with miserable CF options is just inexplicable.  I think it will be a very harmful decision for this season.

[jimmer]

It's a fool's errand to try and significantly improve the rotation while ignoring the defensive shortcomings of your team.

[jorgenswest]

The decision to sign Hunter can only work out if mentoring is a thing and he is a skilled mentor. It guarantees poor defense and no future upside. It is the kind of decision that continues the cycle of mediocrity. A better defender should have been a priority.

 

The decision to go with Schafer is a risk that teams projected for 90 losses can take. Give him two months. See if the talent once seen in him comes to the front. If not, turn it over to one of Hicks, Rosario or Buxton.

 

They do need to find someone with more upside than Robinson. watch the DFA lists.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

That's not really true though.  Of OFers with 400 AB at their position, only

17 out of 34 CFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

9 out of 31 LFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

7 out of 30 RFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

And only 29 out of 81 OFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

Part of that is b/c defensive numbers are still pretty rough, year to year (Adam Jones went from constant negative numbers to a positive 9 last year) and part is because measurements are still not that accurate.

I made an assumption. I will follow up.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

The decision to sign Hunter can only work out if mentoring is a thing and he is a skilled mentor. It guarantees poor defense and no future upside. It is the kind of decision that continues the cycle of mediocrity. A better defender should have been a priority.

 

It helps if the people he was supposed to mentor are actually on the team as well, or did the team decide to pay the mentor 10M just for ST mentoring :-)

[Thrylos]

 

  A third consecutive year with miserable CF options is just inexplicable.  I think it will be a very harmful decision for this season.

 

But it might be the final nail in Ryan's coffin, so 2016 might be different...

[jimmer]

Speaking of OF defense. Guys at MLB Network just got done saying that the best OF defense in baseball is 'easily' the Pirates.  I look at Gordon, Cain and Dyson and wonder if the Pirates OF defense is better at all much less easily the best OF defense in baseball.  Again, confusing offense with defense.

[Mike Sixel]

Since zero rookies are on the roster.....who is Hunter mentoring?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's not really true though.  Of OFers with 400 AB at their position, only

17 out of 34 CFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

9 out of 31 LFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

7 out of 30 RFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

And only 29 out of 81 OFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

Part of that is b/c defensive numbers are still pretty rough, year to year (Adam Jones went from constant negative numbers to a positive 9 last year) and part is because measurements are still not that accurate.

It wasn't my argument, but you are looking at the wrong column.  Def WAR or dWAR includes the positional adjustment for comparing players to other positions.  Corner OF are going to get penalized big by that.  You want the UZR column, or Fielding runs (or Rfield at B-Ref).

 

I also wouldn't use PA as your threshold -- go to the fielding leaderboard and use innings to get a more accurate list of full-time outfielders.

 

And by definition, since WAR uses fielding runs above or below average, you will pretty much get a 50/50 split positive and negative.  (Unless you're looking at the Lake Wobegon team. )

 

I guess the original poster could see how those above average guys are distributed among teams, although given the imprecision of WAR, you really shouldn't treat guys just a couple runs below average as definitively below average, especially on defense for a single season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's not really true though.  Of OFers with 400 AB at their position, only

17 out of 34 CFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

9 out of 31 LFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

7 out of 30 RFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

And only 29 out of 81 OFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs.

 

Part of that is b/c defensive numbers are still pretty rough, year to year (Adam Jones went from constant negative numbers to a positive 9 last year) and part is because measurements are still not that accurate.

I wasn't trying to make this a technical argument. Basically what I said was that a lot of teams have at least one OF who is average both at the plate and in the field. Twins don't have that person. Teams with deficiencies are actively seeking to upgrade. Chicago got Adam Eaton. JD Martinez went to Detroit last year and this year Cespedes. Martinez might or might not turn out to be a league average fielder or hitter but I don't think Detroit is worried about LF this year. I think the Twins are being incredibly passive by signing the Alex Presley and Shane Robinson types. It feels to me like the Twins are just assuming that Buxton is eventually going to save the day for everyone.

[gunnarthor]

 

. I think the Twins are being incredibly passive by signing the Alex Presley and Shane Robinson types. It feels to me like the Twins are just assuming that Buxton is eventually going to save the day for everyone.

Well, yeah.  Teams tend to do that with top prospects.  Cubs traded away Villaneuva, Twins traded away AJ,  Rangers eventually traded Kinsler, Nats left room open for Harper, etc.

 

Didn't make a lot of sense to block CF.  Robinson is, if you like defensive stats, an exceptional defender and Schafer is pretty good.  So they might not have much of a bat in CF but they'll have pretty good defense there.