Some player statistics that might prove interesting

[DocBauer]

Hey gang...some thoughts running through my head lead me to a little bit of player research and what I thought to be some interesting statistical analysis. The following 5 player CAREER MLB statistical comparisons are all Twins players, not random MLers, and as stated, they are career numbers, not a pick and choose good or bad year scenarios to skew anything. 

 

Bear with me, there is a point that I find interesting, and I believe most of you will as well. The following 5 players are listed by career OPS, lowest to highest, as I had to pick some order of reference, and chose this route. I also tossed in SB numbers to show additional, potential, effectiveness as to offensive production.

 

 

Player  AVG    OB%  SLG%   OPS  SB's   CS   SB%

 

A:         .226    .304     .266     .570     91     55     62%

B:         .245    .323     .323     .646     104   36     74%

C:         .240    .332     .318     .649     22     15     59%

D:         .251    .310     .344     .654     36     27     57%

E:         .264    .305     .380     .684     57     14     80%    

 

OK, so career numbers for these Twins...or former Twins...current or former ML ballplayers and Twins. Exact power numbers and R's or RBI aren't really necessary, though they could potentially provide their own interesting information, because each of these 5 ballplayers is a "utility" player. Therefore, I concentrated on base numbers, where things such as SLG or OPS would seem to be more indicitive of production than pure numbers.

 

While none of the 5 is a supreme hitter or OB% machine or big time power threat, there are certainly differences between them all. Clearly some hit better than others, provide more contact, provide more pop, and have more speed and better overall ability to steal a base successfully.

 

Any guesses?

 

Here is your key:

 

A: Al Newman

B: Nick Punto

C: Jeff Reboulet

D: Denny Hocking

E: Eduardo Nunez

 

The point?

 

In the past 25 plus years, Newman, Reboulet, Hocking and Punto would configure the primary 4 "utility" infielders that the Twins have employed on their roster.  Al Newman, a fan favorite, a bit of a catalyst when acquired for the memorable 1987 season, and a future milb coach for the Twins, won 2 World Series with our beloved Twins as the primary utility infielder, despite actually showing on here that he was actually the poorest offensive contributor of the bunch.

 

Reboulet and Hocking certainly saw a mixed bag of ups and downs with the Twins during their careers, and Punto saw success as a player, individually to be sure, but especially as a teammate on some very nice Twins teams. Yet Punto, who played on mostly winning teams, and who I always liked and appreciated, ranks below Reboulet and Hocking both in overall OPS, despite clearly winning the speed/SB argument. And to be fair, there are a few different ways you could argue the relative value of these players offensively, as well as overall. 

 

But what I'm not sure can be argued so easily is the fact that all 4 of these players were relevant, very relevant, to the Twins as a whole when they played. They each spent several years as THE primarily utility guy. Not THE GUY to lead a team, but the guy who could come off the bench to give a break, or fill in, etc, and do the best they could to help the team out in the long haul of a season.

 

So this brings us to Nunez. 

 

As I stated elsewhere earlier..yesterday...I'm tired of trying to defend Nunez who I think is an OK ballplayer, especially when he's the last guy on the bench!  But when curiosity got the better of me, and I looked this information up, I took one more charge!

 

Look, I'd probably rank the other 4 guys ahead of Nunez when it comes to overall glove work. Do I know this? Can I prove it? No, I really can't. Because unfortunately, Nunez not only has less time with the Twins thus far, but I've probably watched him, with my own eyes, less than the other guys from Newman on down. Reputation printed on the internet tells me he's anywhere from OK to the most god-awful player to ever wear a glove and take to a baseball field. From what I HAVE seen, he's clearly not that bad. 

 

But here's the kicker. Not only does he appear to be a far better overall hitter and offensive contributor than any of the other long tenured Twins utility infielders of the past, but he's also NOT the Twins primary utility infielder like the other 4 players were. He's a SECOND utility player, the 25th man on the roster...potentially. He's a guy who is solid to OK to THUD defensively at multiple positions. I go with the middle ground. Personally, I'd work his butt off daily in the OF and even at 1B just to make certain I had the most versatile player, 25th man on the roster I could find.

 

Offensively, I'm not sure many teams could touch his overall production with THEIR 25th man. And haven't we been talking and debating for a good year now about the importance of the whole roster, including the last man on the bench? Now, you don't have to be a Nunez supporter. But before we resort to bashing him again, you might just consider what he can do, and what he can bring to the team, vs. not being a gold glove primary utility man.

[Oxtung]

Ops+

 

Nunez 86

Punto 76

Reboulet 72

Hocking 69

Newman 58

 

You make some good points. I guess everybody has their own trade offs between offense and defense.

[Paul Pleiss]

Nunez in the bane of my existence. You don't need a 2nd utility man.

[jay]

He's a SECOND utility player, the 25th man on the roster...potentially.

Interesting stuff, Doc. Nunez is fine as an end of the bench guy, but this quote is where I'd pass on having him on the Twins roster. The FIRST utility guy doesn't play all that much in the first place. I can't imagine a scenario where there's much value in having a second utility guy.

 

If we're finally going to have an extra bench spot due to a 12-man pitching staff, why do you want to use that spot on a backup to the utility guy?

[Seth Stohs]

I don't think Nunez is a bad player. I do think versatility is important in the 25th roster spot. I don't think it needs to be a 2nd utility infielder, even though the Twins have typically had two utility infielders going back to the TK days. 

 

I'll never get too worked up over the 25th man on the roster. I think a manager can go several directions. Could have a power hitting bench option. Could have a speed guy. Could have a defense guy. The two options for 25th man right now appear to be:

 

Eduardo Nunez - OK at 3 infield positions and 2 outfield positions... runs OK, hits OK...

Chris Herrman - OK at 1B, corner outfielders and a solid catcher... runs OK, hits OK...

 

Some of it might depend on how they feel about Josmil Pinto's ability to catch. They could have Herrmann as the backup catcher, and then Pinto would be the 25th man who is a right-handed power bat off the bench who could catch in a pinch.

[stringer bell]

Nunez is out of options. If the Twins value what he brings to the table, he is on the team. I hope Pinto isn't pigeonholed as a "bat only", that really decreases his value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'll never get too worked up over the 25th man on the roster. I think a manager can go several directions. Could have a power hitting bench option. Could have a speed guy. Could have a defense guy.

I tend to agree that the 25th man isn't terribly important, I'm just confused as to what Nunez actually brings to the table. He's not a power hitter or good bat. He's not a defensive wizard. He's just kinda... There.

 

And for just over $1m, it seems the Twins are just throwing money away. That guy can be found at the minimum at almost any point in the season. I know money doesn't really matter to the Twins right now but still, the decision doesn't really make sense to me.

[DocBauer]

Interesting stuff, Doc. Nunez is fine as an end of the bench guy, but this quote is where I'd pass on having him on the Twins roster. The FIRST utility guy doesn't play all that much in the first place. I can't imagine a scenario where there's much value in having a second utility guy.

If we're finally going to have an extra bench spot due to a 12-man pitching staff, why do you want to use that spot on a backup to the utility guy?

Yes, I see your point. But I think, generally, on a baseball roster, isn't that last guy often a "utility" type? It's not like football, for instance, where the roster is large enough for a 2 deep. Herrmann would be a utility type, just different than Nunez. If we kept Robinson he'd be a utility OF, yes? My point is simply that Nunez, if he's the guy, has the ability to do a few things.

[bird]

What I'd want from the bench on THIS team, in order of importance:

 

1. Defensive replacement(s) for Hunter and/or Arcia. Schaeffer is an adequate answer, Herrmann would give them another option for this.

 

2. Reliable catcher. Please Josmil, get better behind the plate real fast. Herrmann would be less than satisfactory, but not criminal as a choice for 2015.

 

3. True utility. Escobar is almost perfect here. The next best options are in the minors. Nunez would be less than satisfactory, but not criminal as a choice in 2015. But as has been pointed out, redundant.

 

4. Bench bat with power. Pinto works here. Schaefer, Nunez, Herrmann, and even Escobar would not, because most every bat in the lineup stands a better chance than any of them as a pinch hitter.

 

I'd go with Schaefer, Pinto, Escobar, and Herrmann.

[Danchat]

 

I don't think Nunez is a bad player. I do think versatility is important in the 25th roster spot. I don't think it needs to be a 2nd utility infielder, even though the Twins have typically had two utility infielders going back to the TK days. 

 

I'll never get too worked up over the 25th man on the roster. I think a manager can go several directions. Could have a power hitting bench option. Could have a speed guy. Could have a defense guy. The two options for 25th man right now appear to be:

 

Eduardo Nunez - OK at 3 infield positions and 2 outfield positions... runs OK, hits OK...

Chris Herrman - OK at 1B, corner outfielders and a solid catcher... runs OK, hits OK...

 

Some of it might depend on how they feel about Josmil Pinto's ability to catch. They could have Herrmann as the backup catcher, and then Pinto would be the 25th man who is a right-handed power bat off the bench who could catch in a pinch.

Nunez can hit much better than Herrmann. Though I don't believe in having 2 utility guys on the bench, Nunez's bat is good enough to be a pinch-hitting option late in ballgames. Herrmann's only value is that he can play a bunch of positions, but he can't do much with the bat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think Nunez is a bad player. I do think versatility is important in the 25th roster spot. I don't think it needs to be a 2nd utility infielder, even though the Twins have typically had two utility infielders going back to the TK days. 

TK also had a 10 man pitching staff (actually maybe only 9 in the playoffs).  Even as late as 2001 TK only had an 11 man staff.  He could afford to carry a 2nd utility infielder.

 

Holy cow, was Jason Maxwell ever a waste of a roster spot in 2001.  He apparently was on the team the whole season except June when he was injured, and he got into 39 games, 21 starts, 78 PA, 53 OPS+.  After a 56 OPS+ the year before.

 

Nunez should be better than that, although barring injury, I don't know that his usage should be much more.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If it is Nunez, hopefully he is just there in case of injury.  Outside of the four guys ahead of him, they don't have another middle infielder on the roster except for Jorge Polanco, who they were willing to call up last year but maybe they want to avoid that this year?  The only other 3B capable guy on the 40-man is Sano, and they certainly don't want to force his call-up to cover for an injury.

 

That said, even if they don't want to call on Polanco in an emergency again, they have some fungible parts on the 40-man roster they could easily remove to call up Bernier, Beresford, etc.:

 

Oliveros

Pressly

Stauffer

Thompson

Nunez himself

 

[jay]

Yes, I see your point. But I think, generally, on a baseball roster, isn't that last guy often a "utility" type?

With 12 position players, yes. 3 bench spots typically for a backup catcher, utility IF and 4th OF. That assumes a full-time DH in the AL, who can usually backup at 1B.

 

With 13 position players (which we aren't used to), there's already a backup for each position in those spelled out above -- either directly or by shuffling.

 

With 13 position players, I see more value in that extra guy being someone who can do something really well, situationally. Nunez is okay at a lot of things, but he isn't that guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The following 5 player CAREER MLB statistical comparisons are all Twins players, not random MLers, and as stated, they are career numbers, not a pick and choose good or bad year scenarios to skew anything. 

Using the career numbers for the other guys probably skews things more.  You're including the years that got them cut from the Twins (Reboulet's 1996 comes to mind), not to mention their decline phase years.  Three of these guys played until age 35+, so I would hope Nunez's stats through age 27 compare favorably with their career numbers!

 

Also OPS/OPS+ skews things in Nunez's favor, as it is generally understood that OPS overvalues SLG compared to OBP.  Rbat would be a better figure to use (and can easily be combined with Rbaser and Rdp to include base running value).

 

And of course you're glossing over defense and positional ability, which is probably the most important consideration for a utility infielder.

 

Still, using career numbers, here's another look:

 

Nunez is 13 runs better on offense (per 502 PA) than the worst of this group, but he gives that away and more on defense (20 runs worse per 1200 innings than the next worst defender Hocking).  He's 19 runs worse per season overall compared to the average of the other 4, which is about 2 full wins per season.

 

Nunez also appears to have less "versatility" than the others too -- less than 5% of his career innings have been logged at 2B, and his SS innings are already trending down at age 27.

[Minniman]

Al Newman, a fan favorite, a bit of a catalyst when acquired for the memorable 1987 season,...

 

 

Al Newman was basically an out before he stepped into the batters box.

 

He had a nice smile and some hustle but not much else.

[ashbury]

 

Al Newman was basically an out before he stepped into the batters box.

 

He had a nice smile and some hustle but not much else.

He made that throw to home.

[goulik]

Al Newman was basically an out before he stepped into the batters box.

 

He had a nice smile and some hustle but not much else.

.298 OB%... Not quite as bad as you describe it but not good...85 and 91 were horrific statistically though.

[USAFChief]

He made that throw to home.

The ol' 6-4-2 double play, IIRC. Or was it 5-4-2?

[ashbury]

 

The ol' 6-4-2 double play, IIRC. Or was it 5-4-2?

I would have said short, but I looked it up and it was indeed Gaetti who started it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

.298 OB%... Not quite as bad as you describe it but not good...85 and 91 were horrific statistically though.

Huh. I never would have guessed this going into the search but...

 

In 1985, the AL OBP was .327.

In 1987, the AL OBP was .333.

In 2014, the AL OBP was .316.

 

Wow, offense has really declined. Even in an age when the walk is king, the OBP is still way down from the mid-80s. isoD has not increased meaningfully in the past 30 years. Those differences are primarily average-driven.

[bird]

Hey Chief, Ash.

 

What was that Viet Nam thing?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wow, offense has really declined. Even in an age when the walk is king, the OBP is still way down from the mid-80s. isoD has not increased meaningfully in the past 30 years. Those differences are primarily average-driven.

Yup.  AVG and ISO are each down about 15-20 points in the last 5 years, down to a level not consistently seen since the early 1970's.

[jimmer]

 

Yup.  AVG and ISO are each down about 15-20 points in the last 5 years, down to a level not consistently seen since the early 1970's.

Umpires calling a larger (and more accurate by the book) strike zone over the last 5 years mixed with crack down on steroids and it was bound to happen, I believe.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yup.  AVG and ISO are each down about 15-20 points in the last 5 years, down to a level not consistently seen since the early 1970's.

I expected a decline in AVG and SLG... What surprised me the most was that OBP-BA hasn't increased in a meaningful way.