Mauer: Buy or Sell?

[DocBauer]

Of course, it's with Mauer that things ALWAYS get interesting. Let us reflect for a moment. For his career, his quad slash is: .319/.401/.459/.860. Now....look at those numbers again...and again...say them out loud, or loudly in your brain if at work or a quiet place...and then we'll move on. While it's true there are plenty ballplayers who have/can/will produce a higher SLG%, .459 doesn't stink, especially considering his entire career thus far has been behind the plate except for ONE season.

 

We won't bother to get in to his MVP season directly, of his 6 All Star appearances, or his 3 batting titles or his 5 Silver Slugger awards. Nawww....we won't do that to remind everyone what an amazing overall hitter this guy has been, regardless of position really, because we're really focused on the here and now and future.

I said last year that IMO moving to 1B was absolutely not going to make Mauer a sudden slugger. No matter how big and strong and overall athletic he is, he just isn't a big uppercut, willing to risk the SO for the sake of a big swing kind of hitter. But I did say, and maintain, there would be a bump in production from not being so fatigued behind the plate, and also actually playing 150 games between 1B and some occassional DH. Joe had one big year that inflated some of his numbers, but also a couple of bi-lateral/concussion/voodoo/bad mojo years that deflated his stats as well. Career numbers based on a 150 games played: 36 Dbls/ 12 1/2 HR's/ 86 Runs/ 79.5 RBI.

 

Honestly, the only knock I can find there is the RBI number. Not horrible, not great. Interesting note here, in Mauer's first 7 seasons, based on a full 150 games played, he would average 85 RBI. The past 4 seasons, he would average 70 RBI per 150 games played. Some of that is obviously due to personal injury. But some of that is almost certainly attributable to the talent hitting ahead of him, and perhaps behind as well.

Now it's true Mauer has never played in 150 games in a ML season thus far. But it's also true he's been a catcher almost exclusively up until last season, one of his bad 4 years, on a poor team, still dealing with and recovering from his concussion issues.

 

I believe Mauer really and truly has felt great this off season, that he really is working as hard or harder than ever, and that he will actually play in 150 games between 1B and a few games at DH as well. I believe his slash numbers will be pretty much just about where they have always been. He's only 32, his legs and whole body will feel better as the season goes along now that he has a different mitt and his egg is scrambled any longer, and I don't believe he's forgot how to hit. In fact, more time to adjust to Target Field might actually allow for some adaptation on his part.

 

There are reasons to hit him 1st, comparing him, as I have before, to Boggs and Downing. And while I suppose he could hit 2nd, I just don't see putting a hitter of his quality but limited speed in that spot, I truly prefer him in the 3 hole, Mauer being Mauer, but am willing to discuss leadoff. Regardless, I am buying on Mauer and a comeback...in which Mauer will probably state that he never really went anywhere after all.

 

How about you? Buying or selling on Mauer?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Buying! Though when I read the words "quad slash" my first thought was that Mauer found another body part to hurt.

 

He should continue to improve at first base. Under Molitor, he will be drilled continuously. I eventually see Mauer batting about fifth or sixth but maybe not this year. He does seem to profile as a leadoff hitter but how many leadoff hitters are 6-foot-6? It will be interesting to see that first lineup later this week.

[h2oface]

I am a hopeful buyer.  This is a very key year for him. One cannot live on past laurels. He was one of the greatest catchers ever.  If one just considers his performance from 2011 forward, he has been a different player.  Injuries are part of the game, and part of his performance. He really is at a crucial point. He either starts to become a great firstbaseman, or he doesn't.  If he doesn't, career stats won't be very representative of future potential or expectations.

[KGB]

 

I am a hopeful buyer.  This is a very key year for him. One cannot live on past laurels. He was one of the greatest catchers ever.  If one just considers his performance from 2011 forward, he has been a different player.  Injuries are part of the game, and part of his performance. He really is at a crucial point. He either starts to become a great firstbaseman, or he doesn't.  If he doesn't, career stats won't be very representative of future potential or expectations.

 

I'll also fall in the hopeful buyer category. I really think he need to change his approach at the plate to reduce his strike outs and he should get back to .300+ average. In 2013, he was saved by his high BABIP or he would have been below .300 due to the high strike out rate. In 2014, he hit .342 BABIP and still finished at a

.277 batting average, so unless the strike go down, the average will have a hard time going up.

[Minniman]

The Twins traded away three players that led their respective teams in batting average last season.  Yeah, they got some pitching prospects, but all of those hits, all of that base speed, and all of that defense has not been filled by prospects like the Twins had hoped.

 

Mauer is not seeing the pitches he was with better hitters on base in front of him and better hitters protecting him.  His lack of a power swing means pitchers can challenge him if he gets behind in the count.  Without players on base, does it matter if he gets a hit?  If I was a pitching coach, I would pitch Mauer at the edges early, get up on the count with the expanded strike zone, and challenge him to hit your best pitch.  What is there to lose?

[jimmer]

I'm definitely buying.  He was having a great 2013 before the concussion and we started seeing more of the regular Mauer in the 2nd half of 2014 as he moved farther away from it. Not quite himself, but moving that way.  

 

I think he will be close to normal in 2015 and will be even better in 2016 after MLB addresses the called strike zone that has expanded over the last 5 years.  Strikeouts are up all across baseball, not just him, and so we'll see how it goes when baseball addresses that.

[KGB]

 

 

I think he will be close to normal in 2015 and will be even better in 2016 after MLB addresses the called strike zone that has expanded over the last 5 years.  Strikeouts are up all across baseball, not just him, and so we'll see how it goes when baseball addresses that.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2279903-what-can-mlb-do-to-solve-its-expanding-strike-zone-problem

 

The strike zone is actually being called more accurately, so I think it's more an approach at the plate the Mauer needs to look at, you either change or your history. Strikes out have increased, but not close to what Mauer's increase has been over the last 2 years.

 

Also the increase in strike outs as a league probably has a lot to do with the current batters approach. Taking more pitches has not lead to an increase in walk per 9 inning, but the strike out total has continued to increase. I hate MLB trying to change the rules, when it really looks like it's a problem developed by just a poor approach by batters.

[jimmer]

 

 

I think he will be close to normal in 2015 and will be even better in 2016 after MLB addresses the called strike zone that has expanded over the last 5 years.  Strikeouts are up all across baseball, not just him, and so we'll see how it goes when baseball addresses that.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2279903-what-can-mlb-do-to-solve-its-expanding-strike-zone-problem

 

The strike zone is actually being called more accurately, so I think it's more an approach at the plate the Mauer needs to look at, you either change or your history. Strikes out have increased, but not close to what Mauer's increase has been over the last 2 years.

 

Also the increase in strike outs as a league probably has a lot to do with the current batters approach. Taking more pitches has not lead to an increase in walk per 9 inning, but the strike out total has continued to increase. I hate MLB trying to change the rules, when it really looks like it's a problem developed by just a poor approach by batters.

yes, I understand the strike zone is being called more accurately (due to MLB providing umpires pitchf/x info and letting them know they'll be graded on the accuracy of calling the strike zone based on that info). That doesn't mean an adjustment doesn't need to be made because if it's called one way for most of his career and it just keeps expanding, that takes time.  But yes, the approach by MLB batters should change.

 

Also, I imagine part of the increase in his K rate last year was the concussion.

 

And MLB recognizes the issue and will look to address the strike zone in 2016. MLB has changed the strike zone a few times and the last time the strike zone got lower.  Maybe they should change it back.

[Riverbrian]

I'm buying Mauer while knowing I should sell.

 

I'm not worried about his defense at 1B at all. By the end of last year... Mauer was playing high quality D. He's doing fine at the position.

 

It's his offense that concerns me but I also think it could be a quick fix for him.

 

He should be one of the best hitters in the league and he wasn't last year.

 

If Mauer isn't going to be that 20 plus homer guy that he was... that one year... back in 1962... and I don't think he's going to be that guy...  

 

He needs to be able to use the whole field then... not just the opposite way. 

 

If he could add pulling the ball to his repertoire. He could come back as one of the best hitters in the league.

[gunnarthor]

I don't think he'll ever be elite again, so is that a sell?  I think he can be a good player - if you like WAR, maybe a 3 WAR type.  But not a 5 WAR elite guy he had been.  He has too much going against him 

 

1) he's older and doesn't seem the type that'll age well.  Most catchers don't.  I don't think he'll have a Molitor or Hunter like 30s.  

2) His strike out and walks have been moving in the wrong direction for years.  That's unlikely to reverse now.

3) His babip was about normal for him last year so I think he's sacrificed power to adjust to the shifts, so we'll have to accept a .100 iso from him.  Unless he's an elite on-base guy, that's a big hit.

4) I don't think he's an elite on-base guy anymore.  .300/.370/.400 is more likely than a .320/.400/.430 line at this point.

5) He's always had injury issues.  He's missed 38 games/season b/c of injuries.  He's not all of a sudden going to be an iron man.  120 or so games is probably what we should expect from him.

[Steve Lein]

 

Honestly, the only knock I can find there is the RBI number. Not horrible, not great. Interesting note here, in Mauer's first 7 seasons, based on a full 150 games played, he would average 85 RBI. The past 4 seasons, he would average 70 RBI per 150 games played. Some of that is obviously due to personal injury. But some of that is almost certainly attributable to the talent hitting ahead of him, and perhaps behind as well.

Now it's true Mauer has never played in 150 games in a ML season thus far. But it's also true he's been a catcher almost exclusively up until last season, one of his bad 4 years, on a poor team, still dealing with and recovering from his concussion issues.

 

This is a big point of contention on him for me, actually. The Twins need Mauer to be more of a "run producer" (drive guys in) and not a "run creator" (get on base). Despite his great slash lines, Mauer (outside of his MVP year) has never been even average at "producing runs" (things like hitting with RISP, RBI's, etc...). He has a great line in RISP situations, but those lines come with a ton of singles to CF/LF and walks, which do not bring in runs. But, this is also a direct result of:

 

The Twins traded away three players that led their respective teams in batting average last season.  Yeah, they got some pitching prospects, but all of those hits, all of that base speed, and all of that defense has not been filled by prospects like the Twins had hoped.

 

Mauer is not seeing the pitches he was with better hitters on base in front of him and better hitters protecting him.  His lack of a power swing means pitchers can challenge him if he gets behind in the count.  Without players on base, does it matter if he gets a hit?  If I was a pitching coach, I would pitch Mauer at the edges early, get up on the count with the expanded strike zone, and challenge him to hit your best pitch.  What is there to lose?

 

The type of player Mauer is, relies a ton on the other hitters in the lineup, and you hit the nail on the head. No Cuddyer. No Morneau. No Span. No Revere. Those are the types of guys that bring out the best in Joe, so hopefully this is a year guys like Santana, Vargas, and Arcia start producing like those before them, and bring Joe along for the ride.

[jimmer]

 

This is a big point of contention on him for me, actually. The Twins need Mauer to be more of a "run producer" (drive guys in) and not a "run creator" (get on base). Despite his great slash lines, Mauer (outside of his MVP year) has never been even average at "producing runs" (things like hitting with RISP, RBI's, etc...). He has a great line in RISP situations, but those lines come with a ton of singles to CF/LF and walks, which do not bring in runs. But, this is also a direct result of:

 

 

 

How do singles not bring in guys with RISP? And if they don't, does that say more about the runners themselves in scoring position and/or the 3B coach because a single with RISP to the OF should be scoring guys in scoring position.

 

And he has a career .479 slg% with RISP?  How is that just a ton of singles?

[jimmer]

Mauer mostly batted 2nd in 2013. Do you think Mauer's RBI totals might have been affected by having our leadoff guys being 29th out of 30 MLB teams in OBP and 11th out of 15 AL teams in OBP from our #9 batters? Yes, obviously, the concussion happened that ended his season, but before that, when the guys in front aren't getting on base, it's hard to knock them in.

 

In fairness, even with not enough Ops withRISP due to runners not getting on base in front of him, he also hit horribly with RISP that year. Then last year he had an OPS in the .900s with RISP...

[Mike Frasier Law]

I'm buying. I was buying last year, but I underestimated the lingering effects of his 2013 injuries. Looking at his 1st half v. 2nd half splits, it looks like he started moving to his old self:

 

Career: 319/401/459/860 with 12.1% bb rate and 131 wRC+ (100 is league average offensively)

2014 1st half: 271/342/353/695 10.0% bb rate and 96 wRC+

2014 2nd half: 289/397/408/805 14.5% bb rate 125 wRC+

 

Side note: I like wRC+ because of its simplicity.

 

Benefits: it measures value actually created offensively and situationally. It controls for park factors and league effects, so you can compare different years. It is also easy to understand because 100 is average, 110 is 10% above average, etc.

 

Downside is that it does not adjust for position. So the fact that Mauer hit 31% above average over his career is pretty amazing. The fact that he did it playing catcher is astounding. Last year, 17 1b were 100 wRC+ or greater. Only 4 catchers did so, one of whom was Suzuki at 107.

[jimmer]

I'm buying. I was buying last year, but I underestimated the lingering effects of his 2013 injuries. Looking at his 1st half v. 2nd half splits, it looks like he started moving to his old self:

 

Career: 319/401/459/860 with 12.1% bb rate and 131 wRC+ (100 is league average offensively)

2014 1st half: 271/342/353/695 10.0% bb rate and 96 wRC+

2014 2nd half: 289/397/408/805 14.5% bb rate 125 wRC+

 

Side note: I like wRC+ because of its simplicity.

 

Benefits: it measures value actually created offensively and situationally. It controls for park factors and league effects, so you can compare different years. It is also easy to understand because 100 is average, 110 is 10% above average, etc.

 

Downside is that it does not adjust for position. So the fact that Mauer hit 31% above average over his career is pretty amazing. The fact that he did it playing catcher is astounding. Last year, 17 1b were 100 wRC+ or greater. Only 4 catchers did so, one of whom was Suzuki at 107.

exactly.  His career wRC+ of 131 would have put him tied for 7th in the majors last year for 1Bs. His wRC+ of 143 in 2013 would have but him 5th last year, a hair below Miguel Cabrera.  His normal bat plays just fine it 1B and if his defense is above average he's a very good 1B option even without the HRs.

[gunnarthor]

I think one of the real insults to Mauer, over the years, has been people keep saying he was a good hitter "for a catcher."  But he was a great hitter, period.  HIs OPS+, for example, was higher than many sluggers, same with wRC+ etc.  (I just don't think he's that hitter anymore but I really hope I'm wrong).  

 

I think you could quibble with some things, as Steve has shown, but generally he was a great hitter.

[Steve Lein]

How do singles not bring in guys with RISP? And if they don't, does that say more about the runners themselves in scoring position and/or the 3B coach because a single with RISP to the OF should be scoring guys in scoring position.

 

And he has a career .479 slg% with RISP?  How is that just a ton of singles?

 

I've shown this data several times here before. The most common RISP situation is a runner on 2B. It's much harder for a single to get those guys in then you think. Should they score most of the time? Maybe. I'd like to see that percentage. But I do know he gets a lot of line drive and grounder singles, and to the left side of the field (e.g.: in front of such runners). A line drive gets to the OF-er faster. A ground ball can require a runner to make sure it's getting through before taking off. Then the fact he draws a lot of walks in those situations. These are all contributing factors to this.

 

But like I mentioned before, if the team around him is better, Mauer's game is elevated. This would be a reason I'm "buying" on him this year, because I'm "buying" on a lot of the other guys.

[jimmer]

I've shown this data several times here before. 

I haven't been here that long, and what about the .479 slg% with RISP part?  Let's look at that. Last year there were 209 players who had 400 or more plate appearances for the season.  Only 29 had a better slg% than .479.  #29 was Puig at .480.

 

 

It's fair to know that most hits in general are singles, whether that be with RISP or not, for all players across the board.  He is not uncommon in that regard as far as hits with RISP.

[laloesch]

The Twins traded away three players that led their respective teams in batting average last season.  Yeah, they got some pitching prospects, but all of those hits, all of that base speed, and all of that defense has not been filled by prospects like the Twins had hoped.

 

Mauer is not seeing the pitches he was with better hitters on base in front of him and better hitters protecting him.  His lack of a power swing means pitchers can challenge him if he gets behind in the count.  Without players on base, does it matter if he gets a hit?  If I was a pitching coach, I would pitch Mauer at the edges early, get up on the count with the expanded strike zone, and challenge him to hit your best pitch.  What is there to lose?

 

Well put.

[Platoon]

Buyer. For several reasons. He is a better fielder than most give him credit for, at a position he has only played a year. And off a concussion at that. His hitting numbers should speak for themselves. Please remind me exactly how many catchers in the 100 plus years of baseball recorded history have won ONE batting title? The wishful thinking that he should hit for more power does not take into account that his swing virtually precludes power. Lastly he is probably the face of the Twins. He stayed here, albeit for a pretty good deal, but that he could have gotten anywhere. He quietly puts up with some pretty prolific verbal abuse for his stature, and the sports page is the only page where you see his name.

[h2oface]

How do singles not bring in guys with RISP?

 

Sharp single to left........ runner more than likely will not score from second. Same with a sharp single to shallow center, in a lot of cases. That is were Mauer hits a  great deal of his singles.  The third base coaching judgement and decisions will hopefully be better this year than the last couple of years. That will help.

[Shane Wahl]

I will be busting out my player predictions soon. But for now, I might as well take advantage of this and give a sneak peak (Mauer is one of only 8 players I have actually finished doing this for):

Joe Mauer: .309/.403/.420 (.823), 37 doubles, 6 homers, 2 steals.

[Paul Pleiss]

I'm buying Mauer. I'm buying Maur a tall glass of 2% milk at Perkins and I'm letting him have as many refills as he wants to wash down a plate of flap jacks before he goes out and clubs a pair of Joe Mauer doubles.