What If Plouffe and Sano Both Excel?

[strumdatjaguar]

Here are the options I see - if both perform well::

1.  Trade Plouffe - Call up Sano to play 3B?

2.  Trade or DH Hunter, move Plouffe to RF and call up Sano to play 3B?

3.  Mauer's injured again, so keep Plouffe at 3B, call up Sano to play 1B, or vice versa?

4.  Most controversial:  Keep Plouffe, Trade Sano?

 

The good news is that the Twins may have many options with position players, depending on the success, or lack thereof, of Buxton, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, Polanco, Sano, Plouffe, and Santana.  Remember, Plouffe only hits 30 this year and has played OF and other infield positions in the past - so it shouldn't be presumed that he would automatically get traded if Sano is called up.  It's going to be an interesting year to see who progresses and who doesn't.  The Twins can afford to have a few perform poorly or get injured with the amount of depth they have - then everything may become obvious as to who plays where.   But it is going to get very interesting if most perform well.  The Twins will have the enviable "problem" of too many good players for too few positions. 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I think when Sano comes up, Plouffe can be moved to LF, RF, DH or 1B if we decide to keep him.  Ideally, those 4 positions are locked down and we get the great problem of too much talent.  But if he's playing well, he'll be worth a lot on the market anyway.

 

I don't think the Twins are going to trade Sano to keep Plouffe, for a variety of reasons.

[Kwak]

"Both play well".  OK, but there would be one huge difference--Plouffe would be with the Twins and Sano would be in the minors.  "Playing well" isn't equivalent.  Juxtapose their performance with the statement "...Prospects aren't players...".  Let me also remind posters that GMs really do incorporate "the mone thing" into their decision process.  The likelihood that Sano's "service time" would be juggled in order to add an additional season of team control is high.  Summing up, if this scenario were to actually happen, I wouldn't expect it to impact the Twins until mid 2016.  Considering the "difficulties of centerfield",  I can't believe the Twins would leave themselves without any viable alternative at 3B.

[kab21]

I don't think this a problem that the Twins will face during the season.  Sano is not coming up until late June even if he is killing it.  That's the reality of baseball economics.

 

At that point all of Mauer, Vargas, Hunter and Arcia need to be healthy and performing (in addition to Plouffe and Sano).  those odds seem like 1,000,000 to 1.  If all 6 are doing great then it's a good problem to have.

 

In addition to that it assumes that Sano is playing defense at an MLB quality level.  People seem to be hoping for the best when I would be surprised if he isn't the equivalent to Arcia at 3B (or worse).

[nytwinsfan]

Fantastic problem to have. I think the first and most important question is whether they think Sano will be able to handle 3B for at least the next couple of years. If so, then they trade Plouffe. If they are unsure, then there is a tricky situation where they need to get Sano reps at 3B but keep Plouffe for the short-term, perhaps playing outfield (platooning with Arcia or Rosario).

[VandyTwinsFan]

I've noticed a lot of people consider moving Plouffe to the outfield. I don't recall his games in the outfield so he must not have been Delmon Young level awkward. However, after watching how slow his feet are when he runs the bases I don't think he's going to be anything great out there. It looks like he's running on his heels, which is not conducive to a quick first step forwards or backwards nor top end speed, both of which are much more important for an OF than an IF. I'm just highly skeptical of big Plouffe playing a decent OF.

[Linus]

First off, I want to second the notion that this will not be a problem this year.  Sano isn't going to be up until later in the season.

 

If the Twins are comfortable moving forward with Sano at third, then you absolutely trade Plouffe.  The idea that he can just slide into the outfield is a mistake - he has never been a good fielder at any other position other than 3rd and we don't need to watch him learn the outfield at 30 years old.

[nytwinsfan]

First off, I want to second the notion that this will not be a problem this year.  Sano isn't going to be up until later in the season.

I guess I don't understand why that's not a problem "this year?" It won't be a problem at the beginning of the year, but it will once they bring (or want to bring) Sano up later in the year. Right? Isn't later in the season "this year?" What am I missing here?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, this would be an ideal situation, and to be honest I think it's pretty realistic. If both do well this year, my guess is Plouffe is traded in the offseason and Sano is promoted to MLB for 2016. I don't expect Sano in a major league uniform this season unless there's a temporary opening at 3rd or DH (and Sano is hitting well). Plouffe would fetch a nice price on the market if he improves off of 2014.

[nytwinsfan]

Also, related to Sano, there are tons of tweets from spring training of Sano's power being prodigious. Great. But I have only seen one tweet about his fielding generally (the gist of which he might even bigger than a year ago and thus, speculatively, too big to play third) and not a single tweet about how his arm looks. Is he making throws from third? If so, is he taking it easy (per the team or doctor) or is he letting them fly? This seems like the biggest, most important issue of all, and none of the reports I follow on twitter seem to be mentioning or discussing it. If anyone has seen tweets or reports about his arm/throwing, I would love to be pointed to them.

[nicksaviking]

3B has become a position of scarcity these days.  Plenty of teams employe a 3B that hits like a 2B used to.  If Plouffe is still above average and plays good defense, you have to sell high on him. 

 

But not until next off season. 

 

The team still has to see Sano perform well, AAA numbers or even two months in the majors isn't going to be enough.  If all looks good by the end of the year, and Plouffe has value, let the bidding start.  I wouldn't wait until into 2016 though, as Plouffe's value will drop a ton if he starts being considered a corner OF.  Also you'll get the internal issue of playing the likely superior defender out of position just to get the young guy reps at 3B.  That doesn't always go over well with some folks.

[James]

I can't wait for this to be a problem. 

 

Let's say that both Plouffe and Sano are doing well, and it's time to bring up Sano.  I have a feeling that there will be several teams that will be calling the Twins about Plouffe.  Some team that is making a playoff push is going to need a 3B, and I think July is going to be just about the peak of Plouffe's value (at least for this year).  I really think that a team will end up giving up more (as in better) pieces in July than in the offseason.

[Linus]

I guess I don't understand why that's not a problem "this year?" It won't be a problem at the beginning of the year, but it will once they bring (or want to bring) Sano up later in the year. Right? Isn't later in the season "this year?" What am I missing here?

Because for the last 6 weeks of the season, they both can be on the club and then Plouffe can be moved in the off season.

[nytwinsfan]

Because for the last 6 weeks of the season, they both can be on the club and then Plouffe can be moved in the off season.

 

Ok, well, (1) Sano may be up before the rosters are expanded (I certainly hope he is), and (2) even assuming the Twins are not in contention (a good assumption), you still want Sano and Plouffe to both be playing pretty regularly, to get a feel for Sano and to keep Plouffe's trade value high. But that's fair, and may make it less of a problem.

[nytwinsfan]

I can't wait for this to be a problem. 

 

Let's say that both Plouffe and Sano are doing well, and it's time to bring up Sano.  I have a feeling that there will be several teams that will be calling the Twins about Plouffe.  Some team that is making a playoff push is going to need a 3B, and I think July is going to be just about the peak of Plouffe's value (at least for this year).  I really think that a team will end up giving up more (as in better) pieces in July than in the offseason.

I think people generally agree the Twins would be able to deal Plouffe (and in the scenario where he is playing well, for quite a bit). The question is what happens if the Twins are not yet certain whether Sano can stick at third, and so it is risky to trade Plouffe until we know how Sano will do at 3rd.

[Boom Boom]

If both are playing well and both are active on the 25-man at any point, I'm pretty sure they will have Sano play a different position and keep Plouffe at third.

[iTwins]

I'm assuming that Plouffe excelling at third means his defense continues to improve? If that's the case, I could see the Twins moving Sano to 1B or even the OF and leaving Plouffe at third. Sano's defense has always been the "weak link" in any future projections, so if the team has a capable defender there in Plouffe, I would think that Sano would be relocated.

[tobi0040]

The question that needs to be answered is can Sano play 3B.  If he can, Plouffe would likely have a lot more value to the Twins if he was traded (because of the scarcity at 3B) versus playing a corner OF spot.

 

If Sano can't stick at 3B, Plouffe is a valuable player on this team at 3B.  The last option is a super sub type role for Plouffe.  He has always hit lefties very well, but he could also backup 3B, 1B, LF, and RF.  But I think we could get a more valuable piece in a trade than a sub type player.

[nytwinsfan]

If both are playing well and both are active on the 25-man at any point, I'm pretty sure they will have Sano play a different position and keep Plouffe at third.

 

But the only reason that situation would arise would probably be if they were not sure about Sano's future at 3rd, in which case they would want to get him reps at third to make that deterimination. If they are sure about Sano at third, they trade Plouffe.

[mk]

If I had a vote, it would be to play Sano at 3rd and use Plouffe as a super utility - most often platooning with Arcia in the OF.

[nytwinsfan]

I'm assuming that Plouffe excelling at third means his defense continues to improve? If that's the case, I could see the Twins moving Sano to 1B or even the OF and leaving Plouffe at third. Sano's defense has always been the "weak link" in any future projections, so if the team has a capable defender there in Plouffe, I would think that Sano would be relocated.

If Sano's defense is bad, then yes, but I think it has more to do with Sano's defense than Plouffe's, because if Sano is at all serviceable at third, he needs to be there. Otherwise you are kicking Mauer or Vargas out of the lineup.

[nytwinsfan]

If I had a vote, it would be to play Sano at 3rd and use Plouffe as a super utility - most often platooning with Arcia in the OF.

Completely agree, with the caveat that as soon as you are comfortable with Sano at 3rd for at least a few years, we should trade Plouffe.

[jay]

I'll be surprised if Plouffe gets traded away during his remaining arb control, regardless of what Sano does. This team needs more players that are at least average, not fewer. Positions are not so binary that Sano and Plouffe are an either/or proposition. They'll find a spot for him (or Sano).

[strumdatjaguar]

When I originally posted this, I didn't and still don't envision Sano coming north out of Spring Training.  However, if Sano is doing well in the minors and Plouffe is excelling at the MLB level, then the Twins seriously have to consider trading Plouffe prior to the July 31 trade deadline.  The remaining arbitration time makes him an even more attractive player in trade.  If there is no good offer then Plouffe becomes a super utility guy or whatever.   IF Sano is hitting the ball with power and average, but playing lousy defensively at 3B, then the Twins will have another difficult question to answer, with Mauer blocking 1B.

[nater79a]

I can't wait for this to be a problem. 

 

Let's say that both Plouffe and Sano are doing well, and it's time to bring up Sano.  I have a feeling that there will be several teams that will be calling the Twins about Plouffe.  Some team that is making a playoff push is going to need a 3B, and I think July is going to be just about the peak of Plouffe's value (at least for this year).  I really think that a team will end up giving up more (as in better) pieces in July than in the offseason.

 

Bingo! This is exactly what SHOULD happen (assuming the Twins are out of the race on July 31st).

[Shane Wahl]

3B has become a position of scarcity these days.  Plenty of teams employe a 3B that hits like a 2B used to.  If Plouffe is still above average and plays good defense, you have to sell high on him. 

 

 

I watched MLB Network's ranking of the 10 best third basemen. Plouffe was on no one's list. And then they rattled off 8 more guys . . . and Plouffe wasn't on the list. 

[tobi0040]

I'll be surprised if Plouffe gets traded away during his remaining arb control, regardless of what Sano does. This team needs more players that are at least average, not fewer. Positions are not so binary that Sano and Plouffe are an either/or proposition. They'll find a spot for him (or Sano).

 

But what if we get a player for Plouffe that is at least average and plays SS, or is a starter?  I think that is entirely reasonable.

[tobi0040]

I watched MLB Network's ranking of the 10 best third basemen. Plouffe was on no one's list. And then they rattled off 8 more guys . . . and Plouffe wasn't on the list. 

 

Among guys with 300 PA, he was 10th in WAR.  Seems like that should get him to top 18.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/WARBR/order/true/minpa/300

[strumdatjaguar]

Plouffe plays for a team in flyover country.  We don't get no respect!   The GMs will show more respect at the trading deadline than the eastern media.

[Thrylos]

Also, related to Sano, there are tons of tweets from spring training of Sano's power being prodigious. Great. But I have only seen one tweet about his fielding generally (the gist of which he might even bigger than a year ago and thus, speculatively, too big to play third) and not a single tweet about how his arm looks. Is he making throws from third? If so, is he taking it easy (per the team or doctor) or is he letting them fly? This seems like the biggest, most important issue of all, and none of the reports I follow on twitter seem to be mentioning or discussing it. If anyone has seen tweets or reports about his arm/throwing, I would love to be pointed to them.

 

They are not fielding balls in game situations yet.  They are having drills.  That's why you do not hear much about the above.  Yet.  Give it a week and you will hear plenty.