Zulgad: Hicks Confident He Can Contribute

[Otto von Ballpark]

Projected over a full season those are basically Dozier's numbers.

Think you might want to look at that slugging percentage again...

[Riverbrian]

I'm not giving up on Hicks and I don't think anyone should give up on a 25 year old 5 tool young baseball player.

 

But the Twins have to seriously consider running out of options on him before he figures it out.

 

To me... The only logical approach is to start him in AAA and have him earn his way to the bigs in Rochester.

 

Forcing him into the starting CF job for the third straight year makes no sense to me.

 

I'm not giving up on Hicks and I think the best way to demonstrate that you are not giving up on Aaron Hicks... is by placing him... sensibly in AAA... Where he's a phone call and plane flight away when he says he's ready with performance and not words. 

 

This will be year number 3 of my scratching my head over the Twins approach to CF and Hicks is at the center of all of It.

[dxpavelka]

No.  No they are not.

Let me do the math for you:  Hicks BA:  250:  Dozier career high BA:  .244; HIcks OBP:  .348:  Dozier career high OBP:  .345; I'm willing to concede slugging %.  Hicks projected RBI:  69:  Dozier career high RBI:  71;  Hicks projected SB:  15:  Dozier career 162 game average SB:  18.  Did I miss anything?

[jimmer]

this should get interesting.  got to get some popcorn.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Let me do the math for you:  Hicks BA:  250:  Dozier career high BA:  .244; HIcks OBP:  .348:  Dozier career high OBP:  .345; I'm willing to concede slugging %.  Hicks projected RBI:  69:  Dozier career high RBI:  71;  Hicks projected SB:  15:  Dozier career 162 game average SB:  18.  Did I miss anything?

The difference in SLG is about 120 points, which is huge, and a straight minus-120 points of OPS too.  That's about the difference between Dozier and Eduardo Nunez last year.  In terms of OPS+, it's 115 vs 80.

[jimmer]

Hicks wRC+ in Sept/Oct of 2014 was 91.  Dozier's career wRC+ is 100, and last year it was 118.

 

ZiPS projections has Dozier at 104 for 2015.

ZiPS projections has Hicks at 82 for 2015. 

[TheLeviathan]

Let me do the math for you:  Hicks BA:  250:  Dozier career high BA:  .244; HIcks OBP:  .348:  Dozier career high OBP:  .345; I'm willing to concede slugging %.  Hicks projected RBI:  69:  Dozier career high RBI:  71;  Hicks projected SB:  15:  Dozier career 162 game average SB:  18.  Did I miss anything?

 

spycake sort of answered that.  Conceding slugging % means conceding your comparison wasn't all that great.

[dxpavelka]

Hicks wRC+ in Sept/Oct of 2014 was 91.  Dozier's career wRC+ is 100, and last year it was 118.

 

ZiPS projections has Dozier at 104 for 2015.

ZiPS projections has Hicks at 82 for 2015. 

That and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee.  Not the good kind but coffee nonetheless.

[adorduan]

Guys who slug .300 don't have long major league careers.

[USAFChief]

Lets please stick to discussing the play on the field, and stop taking potshots at other posters. Thanks.

[TheLeviathan]

In case you missed the game tonight...Hicks' defense in CF was in midseason form.

 

 (I'll link as soon as I can find one)

[Willihammer]

LOL

http://m.mlb.com/video/v41059283/bos-min-bogaerts-hits-a-two-run-shot-deep-to-center

[tobi0040]

LOL

http://m.mlb.com/video/v41059283/bos-min-bogaerts-hits-a-two-run-shot-deep-to-center

 

That was really bad.  The path, angle, and timing of the jump.  Oh yeah, turns out there is a wall there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I couldn't do anything but laugh when that happened last night. I believe my quote from the game thread was:

 

"OMG, Hicks. Come on, man."

 

I was hoping that after the play, the camera would pan over to right field and show Hunter on the ground, doubled over in laughter.

[nytwinsfan]

Let me do the math for you:  Hicks BA:  250:  Dozier career high BA:  .244; HIcks OBP:  .348:  Dozier career high OBP:  .345; I'm willing to concede slugging %.  Hicks projected RBI:  69:  Dozier career high RBI:  71;  Hicks projected SB:  15:  Dozier career 162 game average SB:  18.  Did I miss anything?

Also, besides slugging (which is a big difference), Hicks will realistically be playing corner outfield for the Twins after this year (if he is playing for them at all). A corner outfield has a higher expectation for hitting than a 2B. True, HIcks will be a good defender for a corner outfielder, but he would have to be incredibly good to make up for his slugging, or lack thereof.

[Parker Hageman]

Like this?

 

https://vine.co/v/O0l2XuFdz9w

[TheLeviathan]

I've had the, um, "privilege" of watching Hicks play CF for 2+ years now.  He's just not any good people, let's all accept that and move on.  He'll probably play alright in a corner, but thank god Buxton is getting his butt out of CF sooner rather than later.  I mean, just look at that comedy of crappiness he called an attempt to make a catch.  And I'm not just talking about doinking the wall - NOTHING about his attempt to catch that was remotely athletic.

 

He's just one of those dudes that for all the athletic tools, just can't put them together into a package that plays good defense.  

[tobi0040]

I've had the, um, "privilege" of watching Hicks play CF for 2+ years now.  He's just not any good people, let's all accept that and move on.  He'll probably play alright in a corner, but thank god Buxton is getting his butt out of CF sooner rather than later.  I mean, just look at that comedy of crappiness he called an attempt to make a catch.  And I'm not just talking about doinking the wall - NOTHING about his attempt to catch that was remotely athletic.

 

He's just one of those dudes that for all the athletic tools, just can't put them together into a package that plays good defense.  

I think the thought has been, young, good athelete, fast, can steal bases.....therefore he will be a good centerfielder. 

 

That has not been what we have seen.

[Mike Sixel]

And yet, we were told, over and over, that he was a good CF defender......

[dxpavelka]

Also, besides slugging (which is a big difference), Hicks will realistically be playing corner outfield for the Twins after this year (if he is playing for them at all). A corner outfield has a higher expectation for hitting than a 2B. True, HIcks will be a good defender for a corner outfielder, but he would have to be incredibly good to make up for his slugging, or lack thereof.

What many on here are failing to understand is that you are basing your opinions of Hicks on what he has done the last two seasons.  If he again performs at those levels this whole conversation will become mute except to those who have a strong allegiance to the Rochester Red Wings.  For him to remain relevant those parts of his game (slugging %) not already nearly on par with Dozier's will have to improve significantly.  If that happens those parts already at or near Dozier's level will most likely improve as well.  I saw nothing in the second half of 2014 to lead me to believe that Dozier's game will elevate to another level.  Bottom line is that if Hicks does not significantly improve his game he will be gone in two years or less.  I'm not disputing that.  Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out.  But if he does improve, he will end up being a superior ball player to Dozier.  Whether the rubes like it or not.

[Ultima Ratio]

This will be a nice thread to bookmark and revisit.  The kid was/is lost.  Plays with little urgency and alertness. But a de facto MLB CF unless miracles happen in AAA with his development.

 

I also hope to eat crow.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For him to remain relevant those parts of his game (slugging %) not already nearly on par with Dozier's will have to improve significantly.

Not only did it completely lack slugging, it was 69 September plate appearances -- not sure we can use that to conclude that any part of Hicks's game is "already nearly on par with Dozier's".  Dozier's been demonstrating that AVG/OBP/BB%/K% (plus slugging) for at least 1200 PA, two full seasons.  And two fewer September singles for Hicks and that AVG is down to his .215 mark for the season; 2 more K's and his K% is up around the danger zone again.  It was just a pitifully small sample to base any conclusions on, especially at that modest performance level.  Even .200 hitters have occasional 69 PA stretches of .250.

[TheLeviathan]

And yet, we were told, over and over, that he was a good CF defender......

 

Which is why we should always take reports on minor league defense with a huge grain of salt unless it comes directly from someone watching them every day.  It's just impossible to get a good scouting sample on defense without extensive viewing.

[stringer bell]

That wasn't a very good play at all by Hicks.  However, one play in the first game of spring training isn't going to convince me one way or another about Hicks' defensive abilities.  The fielding metrics have been mixed at best.  I have seen him make a couple of fine leaping catches at the wall, but that doesn't convince me of his overall defensive ability either. 

[dxpavelka]

Not only did it completely lack slugging, it was 69 September plate appearances -- not sure we can use that to conclude that any part of Hicks's game is "already nearly on par with Dozier's".  Dozier's been demonstrating that AVG/OBP/BB%/K% (plus slugging) for at least 1200 PA, two full seasons.  And two fewer September singles for Hicks and that AVG is down to his .215 mark for the season; 2 more K's and his K% is up around the danger zone again.  It was just a pitifully small sample to base any conclusions on, especially at that modest performance level.  Even .200 hitters have occasional 69 PA stretches of .250.

You are absolutely right sir.  The man has fewer than 550 big league plate appearances.  An extremely small sample size.  And to take you last comment to its logical conclusion-even .300 hitters have occasional 69 PA stretches of .250 as well.

[Willihammer]

Its almost like a ticking time bomb with Hicks and the wall. He just seems to have no bearning of where he is when his feet hit dirt. Eg. Concussion in TB last year. Either that or park his but about 5 feet in front of the track maybe.