Zulgad: Hicks Confident He Can Contribute

[Thrylos]

I was taking the quotes from the Judd Zulag and reading past the drama.  By his own admission, Hicks is the person who made the decision to stop switch hitting, without considering the consequences i.e.  he hadn't hit righthanded against righthanded pitchers in a long time.  After the failed experiment in the minors, he announces he's switch hitting again.  I call that bad behavior.  Do we know there was a lack of coaching or managing?  Gardenhire seemed like he already had one foot out the door.  Did Brunansky not do anything to help Hicks?  I can't say for sure either.  But is does sound like Hicks has taken some responsibility for his career:  he's worked to get in better shape and has seemed to have a plan for AB's. 

 

 

This whole righthanded thing, is a lack of coaching, as far as I am concerned.  If the Twins have better on-field management and coaching, players would not feel like making those decisions themselves.  And Hicks is not the only one.  Multiple Twins players went ahead and made similar decisions and looked for outside help, because apparently the Twins' staff did not provide enough help for them.

 

It is the manager's and the coaches' job to make sure that a. Hicks knows what he should be doing, b. why he should be doing that and c. be on board with what he should be doing so everyone is on the same page.

 

Apparently that was not the case.  In my book, it is the manager's and the coaches' fault.  And, again, not the only player who has not seen eye to eye with the manager and his coaches in the Gardenhire regime (and who subsequently been thrown under the bus publicly for that....)  There is one single common parameter here.  Do you want to blame a dozen or so players or that common parameter?

[Shane Wahl]

I think I disagree with both of you. I don't think Hicks had any bad behavior. I also don't think it was bad coaching or bad behavior from the coaches.

 

What I do think is that baseball is a really, really hard game, and playing baseball in the Major Leagues is incredibly hard. 

 

I believe in Aaron Hicks. I think he's a good kid, and he works and he wants to be good. I believe he can be, but if he's not, it won't be because he didn't try or he wasn't coached well or right. Baseball is really hard!

 

I mostly agree with this, but find myself between you and Thrylos in my view of the previous regime. They didn't handle him well at all at the manager/GM level, but I don't know what would be wrong with the coaching.

 

Hicks has historically been a bit slow to develop and only really started to do well a bit into 2012 in AA. He did really well for the final two months of 2012. With that and ST, the Twins decided to rely on short samples. It was a mistake. 2013 should have been AAA with a September call up. 2014 should have been the first extended look. That would have been more proper development pacing, in my view. In 2014, he final got more time in AAA, was ok, and came up for a short period and was OK. If one just looks at 2014's MLB numbers as the true first 2/5 of MLB time for him, one will have a different view of him. 2013 left a very bad taste in people's mouths and they can't divorce that mistaken season with the whole package. I think it would be a silly mistake to now send Hicks back to AAA. The slugging is going to come around. A .250/.350/.380 line is not at all out of the question for him in 2015.

[tobi0040]

I mostly agree with this, but find myself between you and Thrylos in my view of the previous regime. They didn't handle him well at all at the manager/GM level, but I don't know what would be wrong with the coaching.

 

Hicks has historically been a bit slow to develop and only really started to do well a bit into 2012 in AA. He did really well for the final two months of 2012. With that and ST, the Twins decided to rely on short samples. It was a mistake. 2013 should have been AAA with a September call up. 2014 should have been the first extended look. That would have been more proper development pacing, in my view. In 2014, he final got more time in AAA, was ok, and came up for a short period and was OK. If one just looks at 2014's MLB numbers as the true first 2/5 of MLB time for him, one will have a different view of him. 2013 left a very bad taste in people's mouths and they can't divorce that mistaken season with the whole package. I think it would be a silly mistake to now send Hicks back to AAA. The slugging is going to come around. A .250/.350/.380 line is not at all out of the question for him in 2015.

 

The issue for me with this prediction (.250/.350/.380), is that it would take an entirely different approach.  Hicks has been way too tentative at the plate so far to have any shot at slugging .380, particularly last year. 

[Shane Wahl]

The issue for me with this prediction (.250/.350/.380), is that it would take an entirely different approach.  Hicks has been way too tentative at the plate so far to have any shot at slugging .380, particularly last year. 

 

Well, Hicks addresses this in the article.

[Linus]

I think Hicks definitely needs to start in AAA and gain confidence in swinging the bat.  His high OBP is not going to last in the big leagues as pitchers will challenge him and not risk walking the guy.

[ashbury]

With the turnover in on-field management, I'd be inclined more than usual to let them judge during spring training whether he's benefiting from instruction and is getting good at bats.   I don't mean simply good stats, since you can fatten up in spring against the wanna-be's and never-were's on the other teams.   But if he's punishing "his" pitches when the bad pitchers are in there, and laying off "their" pitches when the big boys are taking their turns, I'd bring him north.   I'm not in favor of platooning him, in this age of 12- and 13-man pitching staffs, unless the rest of the roster is so solid that a CF platoon causes no compromises elsewhere; and I especially don't build a platoon around the less-used (vs LHP) half of it.

[tobi0040]

Well, Hicks addresses this in the article.

 

Saying you are going to be more consistent and doing it are different things. I am guessing he wasn't hoping on being inconsistent the last few years

[dxpavelka]

Agree 100% with Chi-Town above.  I consider myself a harsh critic of how the player has been handled, but not of the player.  I think handing him the center field job for the third time is wrong and short-sighted.  Further, using him as the right-handed component of a platoon does basically give up on him being a starting center fielder. 

 

I am convinced that sending Hicks to the minors is the best way for him to reach his potential.  If he hits well in Rochester, he could and should be on a plane back to Minneapolis before Memorial Day.  The young man has tools, but I don't know if he has the skills to be a regular outfielder in the major leagues. 

I don't think anyone is advocating HANDING him, or anyone else, the CF, or any other, job.  But if the kid WINS the job (like he has the last 2 years) bring him north and pencil him in the lineup. I'd make the same statement about Jordan Schaefer, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton or any other reasonalbe option.    Best player plays until he's not the best player.  We want to be critical of how the player has been handled, but let's be honest, what could be more of a mishandling of this or any other player than to have him win a job and be told he still didn't do enough?

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think anyone is advocating HANDING him, or anyone else, the CF, or any other, job.  But if the kid WINS the job (like he has the last 2 years) bring him north and pencil him in the lineup. I'd make the same statement about Jordan Schaefer, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton or any other reasonalbe option.    Best player plays until he's not the best player.  We want to be critical of how the player has been handled, but let's be honest, what could be more of a mishandling of this or any other player than to have him win a job and be told he still didn't do enough?

He "won" the job like Bill Belicheck wins "best head coach named Belicheck". They literally cleared the roster of any relevant competition two straight years.

[Thrylos]

The issue for me with this prediction (.250/.350/.380), is that it would take an entirely different approach. Hicks has been way too tentative at the plate so far to have any shot at slugging .380, particularly last year.

If you look at his career MiLB numbers his average isoD is .100 with very little deviation. His average isoP is .150 with bit more deviation (ranging from 0.094 to .265). Given, both of those number will improve the closer he gets to his prime. If he hits .250, a .250/.350/.400 slash line should be expected, which higher than what Shane actually has indicated. If he hits .275 (which is his MiLB average) then you are looking at .275/.375/.425 (.800 OPS) which in this day and age and ballpark translates to about 122 OPS+ (give or take a couple)

 

Can he do it? No question. It is a matter of continue being selective and making better contact in the majors. Will he do it? We will find out, but the potential is there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Through 600 AB, Hicks has an OPS of .606.  31 XBH. 140 K's and 60 BB.  He was 23 and 24 and promoted before he was ready.

 

Through 1,017 AB's, Gomez started with an OPS of .623.  66 XBH.  241 K's and 55 BB's.  He too was promoted too early.  He was a little younger, those were 21-23 stats.

Certainly Hicks has time to turn it around, but this is one of those times where I find batting average to be a useful indicator if a player can at least handle MLB pitching.  At the career points you chose, Gomez was at a .246 BA, Hicks is at .201.  Also, despite being a hacker, Gomez was at 21.9 K%, versus 26 for Hicks.  Hicks doesn't have much room to take more K's if he tries to be more aggressive/powerful at the plate.

 

Also, interestingly, Gomez's isolated power increased every year of his MLB career until this past season when it finally leveled off, although they were pretty minor increases up until his 25th birthday when it really exploded.  Hicks obviously took a huge step backward in that department last year.  So this a big year for Hicks, after turning 25 in the offseason.

 

Given his winter league stats too, I'm inclined to say that Hicks probably shouldn't sniff the MLB roster to open the season unless there are at least two CF injuries in camp.  He needs a chance to really thump in AAA.  Eddie Rosario probably shouldn't break camp unless there are about 4 injuries and no room on the 40-man roster to add someone else.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you look at his career MiLB numbers his average isoD is .100 with very little deviation. His average isoP is .150 with bit more deviation (ranging from 0.094 to .265). Given, both of those number will improve the closer he gets to his prime. If he hits .250, a .250/.350/.400 slash line should be expected, which higher than what Shane actually has indicated. If he hits .275 (which is his MiLB average) then you are looking at .275/.375/.425 (.800 OPS) which in this day and age and ballpark translates to about 122 OPS+ (give or take a couple)

That MiLB ISO is propped up a bit by 2B and 3B, which I imagine are easier to collect against minor league defenders (and perhaps with an 18-22 year old's speed).  I don't know that it would translate 1:1 to the majors.

 

Also, the "gets his average up to .250" line of reasoning started last offseason when he looked like a bit of a BABIP victim his rookie year.  Last year he had a normal BABIP in MLB, and his average climbed all the way to... .215.  And his ISO dropped to .059.

 

And the MiLB isolated discipline may not translate 1:1 to the majors either, at least not after he's modified his approach to hit higher than .201.

 

I think .250/.350/.380 is probably his realistic upside at this point in time.  And like you said, it will take work to get there.

[Mike Sixel]

He's consistent, consistently bad. Consistent =/= good.

 

*edit, I really, really hope he succeeds this year. Mainly because I want everyone to succeed, but partly because it would show just how far you can go with talent and work, but that you need to work, not just have talent. Good luck to Mr. Hicks.

[stringer bell]

I don't think minor league tendencies necessarily translate to major league performance.  Two current Twins didn't hit for near as much power in the minors--Dozier and Arcia--while Arcia has faltered in plate discipline. 

 

Hitting is difficult and Hicks needs to show that he has what it takes to hit in the majors.  It will eventually be up to both the front office and the field staff to determine whether Hicks has turned a corner.  Jorgenswest wrote a good blog about the importance of spring training and it shouldn't solely be about statistics.  What we know is that Hicks looked good the last two springs, particularly in 2013, but couldn't back that up with acceptable performance when the games counted.  In that respect, the bar needs to be set much higher for him.  The tools are there, but the performance has been lacking. 

[dxpavelka]

He "won" the job like Bill Belicheck wins "best head coach named Belicheck". They literally cleared the roster of any relevant competition two straight years.

He hit .352 with an OPS of .979 the last two springs combined.  Yeah, OK he didn't WIN the job. 

[Mike Sixel]

Which is why you should take spring training stats with a grain of salt the size of Charles Barkley's ego.....

[dxpavelka]

Certainly Hicks has time to turn it around, but this is one of those times where I find batting average to be a useful indicator if a player can at least handle MLB pitching.  At the career points you chose, Gomez was at a .246 BA, Hicks is at .201.  Also, despite being a hacker, Gomez was at 21.9 K%, versus 26 for Hicks.  Hicks doesn't have much room to take more K's if he tries to be more aggressive/powerful at the plate.

 

Also, interestingly, Gomez's isolated power increased every year of his MLB career until this past season when it finally leveled off, although they were pretty minor increases up until his 25th birthday when it really exploded.  Hicks obviously took a huge step backward in that department last year.  So this a big year for Hicks, after turning 25 in the offseason.

 

Given his winter league stats too, I'm inclined to say that Hicks probably shouldn't sniff the MLB roster to open the season unless there are at least two CF injuries in camp.  He needs a chance to really thump in AAA.  Eddie Rosario probably shouldn't break camp unless there are about 4 injuries and no room on the 40-man roster to add someone else.

If neither Hicks nor Rosario (or Buxton) makes the opening day roster then it's last year all over again just cross out Fuld/Mastroiani & substitue Shane Robinson. 

[stringer bell]

He hit .352 with an OPS of .979 the last two springs combined.  Yeah, OK he didn't WIN the job. 

Spring training stats are fool's gold.  The sample sizes are small and competition is uneven--the early games feature a lot of minor leaguers and a smattering of major leaguers just getting their work in.  I recall in 2013, Hicks hit three homers (all RH) in Clearwater with the wind blowing out and blowing strongly.  That 3-homer game had a lot to do with Hicks' lofty numbers. 

 

If he isn't driving the ball, is struggling left handed, and swinging and missing a lot, that would trump a .300 BA or .800 OPS this spring. 

[dxpavelka]

Which is why you should take spring training stats with a grain of salt the size of Charles Barkley's ego.....

You've got to base your decisions on something.  If you keep looking backward you'll get there sooner rather than later.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If neither Hicks nor Rosario (or Buxton) makes the opening day roster then it's last year all over again just cross out Fuld/Mastroiani & substitue Shane Robinson. 

Hicks made the team to open last year.  I don't want a repeat of that.

 

Plus we still have Danny Santana, with two Eduardo's slated for utility duty.  I wouldn't rule him out.

[stringer bell]

If neither Hicks nor Rosario (or Buxton) makes the opening day roster then it's last year all over again just cross out Fuld/Mastroiani & substitue Shane Robinson. 

Not to be too nit-picky, but Mastro had 12 plate appearances with the Twins last year.  Further, the guy who played the most center field last year was the 23 year old  Twins rookie of the year Danny Santana.  If things play out that way in the spring, I wouldn't be broken up about it.  Also remember, a major league season is really long.  If Hicks or Rosario don't go north with the team, but tear it up in the minors, that would be fine.  Having one of those two replace a Robinson by June 1 would give them plenty of time to gain experience. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Spring training stats are fool's gold.  The sample sizes are small and competition is uneven--the early games feature a lot of minor leaguers and a smattering of major leaguers just getting their work in.  I recall in 2013, Hicks hit three homers (all RH) in Clearwater with the wind blowing out and blowing strongly.  That 3-homer game had a lot to do with Hicks' lofty numbers.

Yeah, if you simply knock those 3 HR down to 3 2B, Hicks loses 145 points of SLG/OPS for that spring!

 

He did OK by B-Ref's "Opposition Quality" measure but that isn't super-precise either...

[dxpavelka]

Hicks made the team to open last year.  I don't want a repeat of that.

 

Plus we still have Danny Santana, with two Eduardo's slated for utility duty.  I wouldn't rule him out.

Infielders playing outfield.  Like I said.  Last year all over again and again.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Infielders playing outfield.  Like I said.  Last year all over again and again.

Or, opening day CF in way over their heads.  Last TWO years all over again.

 

The infielder that played CF regularly last year turned out pretty good, and at the very least doesn't look like he is struggling with confidence or adapting his game to MLB.  I can live with that for the first two months while Hicks and/or Rosario get their games together in AAA.

 

I'll defer some to the judgement of the new coaching staff if they really think Hicks is ready this time (or longer shot, that Rosario would be ready), but I would not be surprised or disappointed if they thought both needed more AAA time.

[TheLeviathan]

Since Hicks plays an average CF at best, the downgrade to Santana was more than made up for by the offensive difference.

 

If Molitor thinks things have changed, fine. But given the roster construction he has very limited options regardless of what Hicks does.

[stringer bell]

Infielders playing outfield.  Like I said.  Last year all over again and again.

The meme has been repeated and there's more than a grain of truth--Bartlett was brutal in two games, Escobar played a memorably bad game in center field and there's more.  However, Danny Santana, after an understandably rocky start in center was more than adequate as a defender and was a godsend as the leadoff hitter.  It could be that Danny Santana won't ever be a regular infielder. He could end up being a true super-utility guy.  He wasn't good defensively at short in spring training last year.  With another year's work in the OF, I think he would be an above-average defender in center or left. 

[adorduan]

In the article Hicks said in September it all clicked.  Hicks hit .250/.348/.300 with nine runs batted in and two stolen bases in 21 games last September. If that's clicking, he's never gonna make it.  I think he's going to end up being a AAAA player.  I hope I'm wrong though.

[dxpavelka]

Or, opening day CF in way over their heads.  Last TWO years all over again.

 

The infielder that played CF regularly last year turned out pretty good, and at the very least doesn't look like he is struggling with confidence or adapting his game to MLB.  I can live with that for the first two months while Hicks and/or Rosario get their games together in AAA.

 

I'll defer some to the judgement of the new coaching staff if they really think Hicks is ready this time (or longer shot, that Rosario would be ready), but I would not be surprised or disappointed if they thought both needed more AAA time.

As I said:  If the guy wins the job.  And that will be decided by the coaching staff.  Not me. Not you.

[dxpavelka]

In the article Hicks said in September it all clicked.  Hicks hit .250/.348/.300 with nine runs batted in and two stolen bases in 21 games last September. If that's clicking, he's never gonna make it.  I think he's going to end up being a AAAA player.  I hope I'm wrong though.

Projected over a full season those are basically Dozier's numbers.

[TheLeviathan]

Projected over a full season those are basically Dozier's numbers.

 

No.  No they are not.