Who will be the 5th starter?

[jay]

The venerable Strib posted a Q&A with Terry Ryan. His response to a question on pitching is below.

I read it as:
- He acknowledges Gibson, Hughes, Santana and Nolasco as having rotation spots
- May and Meyer are "about his turn" and "have plenty of minor league innings", but he also says "reach down" about them
- Milone and Pelfrey are "the type of depth you're going to have to have" to make it through the season.

So, who is going to be the fifth starter coming out of spring training and why?

----------------------

Q Do you need more quality arms these days than you used to?

A Historically, I think it takes quite a few pitchers and I don’t think it matters if we’re talking about 1990 or 2015. You always need quantity, and if you have a combination of quality and quantity you’re in very good shape.  ...

 

For the full article, click here.

[Willihammer]

Assuming the front 4 are healthy (knock on wood) I think Pelfrey gets it. Its a contract year, I think they hope he can be healthy and effective enough to keep Milone, Meyer and May in AAA until the deadline.

 

I suspect Ryan would love to trade Nolasco this summer too.

[DaveW]

I would be shocked if Pelfrey is even in the mix for the opening day rotation.

 

I think it goes to whoever has the best spring between Milone, May and Meyer.

[JB_Iowa]

I think Ryan steps back and leaves it up to Molitor and Allen (for the most part).

[Otwins]

I too think that it is whoever has the best spring but I think Pelfrey is in the mix. It will be interesting to see what happens to the pitchers that do not win that 5th spot.  Do they head for the bullpen, minors or a little of both? Hard to say because it does not seem to be business as usual this year. Tampa has never been afraid to put rookies in their rotation. Will Allen carry that philosophy with him? Can't wait for spring training.

 

Merry Christmas

[twinsfanstreif]

Meyer hands down, he has the most upside and strikeout ability. No way they let him dominate AAA pitching one more year or let him rot in the bullpen without giving him a shot. May has some upside too but before last year most thought he would be a set-up/closer guy in the future so put him in long relief with the chance to spot start and potentially take over for Nolasco if he can't cut it again, if not he could end up being an 8th inning option. With Milone we know what we have, he doesn't have much upside past a #4 or 5 starter and we should treat him as depth. Pelfrey is done and he shouldn't even be here, I suspect he either gets cut or shows some promise and is flipped for a low level prospect to a team lacking depth, there is no way we block Meyer for him if we're smart.

[DaveW]

I think Pelfrey could actually be a pretty solid bullpen option.

[DaveW]

My prediction is:

 

May wins the job, Pelfrey to the pen, Meyer to AAA for a month or two to stay stretched out and then either someone gets injured/ineffective or they trade Nolasco to open up room for Meyer by May 31st

[PseudoSABR]

If Pelfrey is healthy, I assume he'd have to be on the 25-man roster, or DFA'd; I can't see the Twins doing that.  I think Pelfrey and Milone make the roster one in the bullpen and the other in the rotation.  Perhaps if Meyer or May blow everyone away, the Twins may go with the youngster out of the gate, but that's not their typical MO.

 

Does Milone actually have options left?

[Brandon]

I think Meyer starts in AAA regardless as he has options unless he kills it in spring with great control and low pitch counts.  I think it will start with a veteran Pelfry or Millone and May will either be in the bullpen or minors.  Come May 1rst I suspect that can change. 

 

Not to contradict myself, while I think the above is how it plays out it, the 5th starter will be the one who deserves it the most in spring training.  I think it would be interesting if it was Berrios.

[Platoon]

I doubt they will let Meyer see a major league stadium until the deadline passes. And frankly I think it will take a total meltdown (or injuries) by several starters for anyone to see him before September. Sadly I fear it will be Milone who comes north, unless he is not heathy.

[kab21]

Pelfrey almost certainly gets the first shot at it.  If he doesn't look good then I think it's a competition between Milone and May.  I would prefer that Meyer starts slowly in AAA skipping a start and then throwing 4-5 innings/start to keep the workload down until a June callup.

 

Of course this is all assuming that Nolasco and the other pitchers are healthy.  There could easily be two opening day spots available (short term).

[DocBauer]

I just don't see any way Pelfrey isn't the 4th option here, and probably headed to the pen where I agree he has a chance. He throws hard, would throw a little harder in the pen. He wouldn't have to worry about facing batters twice, more than likely. And after missing last year, and the end of '13, I sure don't know that anyone could have high expectations for him in the rotation. And this time, no extension in Pelfrey's future unless he is lights out in the bullpen. There is too much talent, too many available arms to place bets on his return. In fact, nothing personal, he might not even finish or make the season unless he is absolutely 100%.

[DaveW]

Also one thing to look out for: If May Meyer and Milone all "look the part" more or less I think it opens up a trade possibility in regards to Gibson and to a lesser extend Milone as well. (Obviously I think Nolasco would be the  preferred one to be shipped out, but it may take some time to rebuild that trade value) Gibson might be able to net the Twins are solid prospect or fill a hole in another position. (Very good corner OF? MI? C? etc)

[adjacent]

Reading the interview, Ryan mentions first Meyer and May, practically sayng the it would be nice if they are ready. Then he speaks about Milone and Pelfrey as "depth". Maybe I am reading too much into what he is saying, but from his words it looks like Meyer and May will have their chance first, and then, if there are problems, Milone and Pelfrey. Am I reading this wrong/

[kab21]

I just don't see any way Pelfrey isn't the 4th option here, and probably headed to the pen where I agree he has a chance. He throws hard, would throw a little harder in the pen. He wouldn't have to worry about facing batters twice, more than likely. And after missing last year, and the end of '13, I sure don't know that anyone could have high expectations for him in the rotation. And this time, no extension in Pelfrey's future unless he is lights out in the bullpen. There is too much talent, too many available arms to place bets on his return. In fact, nothing personal, he might not even finish or make the season unless he is absolutely 100%.

 

Because the one getting paid without an option to the minors will be given every chance to start.  His leash is pretty short by now and it's likely that he doesn't look good enough in camp to keep the spot.

 

Even though it makes sense we have not heard anything about Pelfrey going to the pen.  I think that happens if he doesn't keep the 5th spot but so far he's a starter.

 

[jay]

Reading the interview, Ryan mentions first Meyer and May, practically sayng the it would be nice if they are ready. Then he speaks about Milone and Pelfrey as "depth". Maybe I am reading too much into what he is saying, but from his words it looks like Meyer and May will have their chance first, and then, if there are problems, Milone and Pelfrey. Am I reading this wrong/

I read it the exact same way. I wasn't sure if it was just wishful thinking or not, so thanks for at least confirming I'm not the only one.

[Boom Boom]

I suspect it will be Pelfrey because it has been the Twins' MO to let the veteran guy play himself out of his spot, and they like him for reasons beyond his on-field performance.

 

That was the MO in the Gardenhire era, anyway. It will be interesting to see how roster decisions are affected by a new manager, but the final decisions were always the GM's to make.

[Paul Pleiss]

When Alex Meyer opens the season in AAA I'm going to start throwing things in Terry Ryan's general direction, and screaming. It'll be a good ol' temper tantrum.

[kab21]

I read it the exact same way. I wasn't sure if it was just wishful thinking or not, so thanks for at least confirming I'm not the only one.

 

Or they are measured words so people think there is an actual competition when in fact there isn't.

[Siehbiscuit]

I'm still in the move Meyer to the bullpen for he first couple months and keep innings off his arm. Around June 1, unleash him.

 

May should be better and hopefully he can beat out Milone for a spot in ST. I want the best 5 starters, not the 5 best paid.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, if you read that as actual competition I refer you to the football QB competition analogy again, the phrasing is the exact same.

 

He's hoping for pressure to "reach down" for them. I think the decision as all but made barring injury: this is Milone and Pelfrey's competition for two roles, but both have spots already.

[DaveW]

Yeah, if you read that as actual competition I refer you to the football QB competition analogy again, the phrasing is the exact same.

 

He's hoping for pressure to "reach down" for them. I think the decision as all but made barring injury: this is Milone and Pelfrey's competition for two roles, but both have spots already.

Id be willing to bet a healthy amount that the 5th starter is neither Pelfrey or Milone unless one absolutely kills it in ST and wins it outright.

[stringer bell]

I believe Milone has an option remaining.  I think he either wins a spot in the rotation or he is in Rochester.  Pelfrey wins a spot or inherits Swarzak's role, with a possible move down the road to 1) starting rotation 2) late inning setup duty or 3) trade or release.  May and Meyer figure in as well and if either is clearly better than the competition they make the squad in the rotation.  If not, I don't see room in the bullpen.  My prediction:  The four penciled in as starters plus Milone.  May and Meyer both to Rochester and Pelfrey to the 'pen.  What I am hoping for:  minor injury to one of the four, adding both Meyer and May to the rotation with a healthy Milone in Rochester. 

[TheLeviathan]

Id be willing to bet a healthy amount that the 5th starter is neither Pelfrey or Milone unless one absolutely kills it in ST and wins it outright.

Why, every year, do we keep fooling ourselves that spring training matters?

[jay]

If there's one thing that is clear, it's that there isn't a consensus among the audience here on how it will turn out.

 

I'll keep hoping it's May with Meyer and Pelfrey in the pen plus Milone at AAA.

[stringer bell]

Why, every year, do we keep fooling ourselves that spring training matters?

It does matter in a truly open competition.  Gibson won and kept a starting spot in the rotation last year.  It is getting in shape time for some of the veterans.  If Hughes or Santana struggle this spring it won't amount to a hill of beans.  Sometimes "competitions" are no such thing.  For example, Suzuki was going to be the starting catcher and Bartlett was going to make the team no matter what they did between the lines.   

[TheLeviathan]

Of course ST has value for getting ready physically for the season, but even in an "open competition" is it really that valuable?

 

You're playing against bastardized lineups for shorts stints with often 8-9 guys pitching in a single game.  It's part of why the notion that a true open competition is silly in any sport.  Is Teddy Bridgewater lighting up future CFL players really grounds to give him a job over Cassell?  Is Tommy Milone blowing away a B squad for 3 innings better than May giving up two runs against an A squad in three innings?

 

ST doesn't matter for anything more than physical prep.

[jokin]

It does matter in a truly open competition.  Gibson won and kept a starting spot in the rotation last year.  It is getting in shape time for some of the veterans.  If Hughes or Santana struggle this spring it won't amount to a hill of beans.  Sometimes "competitions" are no such thing.  For example, Suzuki was going to be the starting catcher and Bartlett was going to make the team no matter what they did between the lines.   

 

And Danny Santana wasn't going to make the team last ST, even though it was very obvious that both Florimon and Bartlett couldn't play.

[tobi0040]

I think the Twins are done with Pelfrey as a starter.  I hope nothing is a given for him and hope they move him to the pen and with a very good spring he can make the team there.

 

Barring really dramatic differences in spring between M and M, I think May gets the 5th spot.  Then the Twins either start Meyer in the pen like Johan, or starting at AAA. That is a hard one to predict because I think the Twins will do whichever they think is the best path for him starting with the Twins. I have no clue which way they lean.