Neal: Twins in on Ervin Santana

[nicksaviking]

That's exactly what would happen. Frontloading accelerates inflation, backloading keeps prices down.

 

One contract on one team wouldn't make much difference but if frontloading were to become standard practice, than any dollar saved for a later window would buy a fraction of what it could otherwise. That's why it doesn't happen much. It might benefit one team in one year but its not in ownership's collective long term interest.

 

I'd agree, but this would be that year as the Twins won't be against their double secret, self imposed salary cap.  If they get competitve in the next couple years, they may.

[zenser]

If the Twins were to sign Santana, which pick would be lost? Are the comp picks and competitive balance picks protected?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins were to sign Santana, which pick would be lost? Are the comp picks and competitive balance picks protected?

I believe so... I think it goes directly to the second round pick.

 

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nope, the team loses their "second-highest selection".
 

The first ten selections in the draft are protected. Teams with protected picks will surrender their second-highest selections.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/explaining-qualifying-offers.html

[Willihammer]

 

I'd agree, but this would be that year as the Twins won't be against their double secret, self imposed salary cap.  If they get competitve in the next couple years, they may.

I agree it can make perfect sense from the Twins perspective because one team's interests will at times be at odds with the long term interests of MLB owners, depending on where they are in arbitration raises, free agents, etc. and where they sit in the standings. But if everyone frontloaded their player contracts when they hit one of these windows like the Twins are in, it would impact prices in the players favor.

 

Not every FA is looking to sign a 4+ year deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars. There are players looking for 2-3 year deals who would be impacted, and over time trickle down the chain to affect the minimum wage and minor leaguers. Backloading, specifically backloading at a rate less-than-the-current-rate-of-salary-inflation suppresses that.

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree it can make perfect sense from the Twins perspective because one team's interests will at times be at odds with the long term interests of MLB owners, depending on where they are in arbitration raises, free agents, etc. and where they sit in the standings. But if everyone frontloaded their player contracts when they hit one of these windows like the Twins are in, it would impact prices in the players favor.

Not every FA is looking to sign a 4+ year deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars. There are players looking for 2-3 year deals who would be impacted, and over time trickle down the chain to affect the minimum wage and minor leaguers. Backloading, specifically backloading at a rate less-than-the-current-rate-of-salary-inflation suppresses that.

 


I guess I just don't understand why that would happen unless team's were using current salray instead of AAV. No agent is going to sit across from the table from a GM trying to peddle the idea a comparable player with an AAV of $15 million should only be worth $6 million because that's what his salary was last year. Neither side would be naive enough to think the other truely doesn't understand the difference.

[PseudoSABR]

Ervin Santana ‏@ErvinSantana_54  11m11 minutes ago
I was told I would never make it because I'm too short...It doesn't matter what your height is, it's what's in your heart.

#KirbyPuckett

[TheLeviathan]

My recollection of the union's stance the last time this was brought up was concern that future free agents would be measured against the back end of other players' deals, so that the diminished future salaries would have some chance of influencing prices for new contracts for other players.  I'm not saying that's a great point, but I am pretty sure it was mentioned as a concern.

 

Exactly.  Everyone is right that it would be smarter to not value people based on their dollar figure that year and players and owners to varying degrees would be smart to frontload.

 

But the reasoning behind avoiding it has nothing to do with smart vs. stupid - it's a union driven phenomenon to avoid the perception of "bargain" stars because they believe (wrongly IMO) that this would create negotiating leverage for owners.

 

Since there is nothing more evil and toxic to a union than giving away negotiating leverage.....we have our current situation: virtually no frontloaded contracts.  Just the way it is, not really a commentary if it is smart or not, that's just the explanation.

[Trevor0333]

Santana's tweeting Puckett quotes, must be a done deal.

 

I'm sure it's a 4/65, don't love it, don't hate it.

[nicksaviking]

Ervin Santana ‏@ErvinSantana_54  11m11 minutes ago

I was told I would never make it because I'm too short...It doesn't matter what your height is, it's what's in your heart.

#KirbyPuckett

 

This Puckett fella, played for the Giants did he not?

[TheLeviathan]

Santana's tweeting Puckett quotes, must be a done deal.

 

I'm sure it's a 4/65, don't love it, don't hate it.

 

Same for me, I have guys I would've rather taken a chance on but Santana is a good pitcher and we had the money to spend.

[tobi0040]

Ervin Santana ‏@ErvinSantana_54  11m11 minutes ago

I was told I would never make it because I'm too short...It doesn't matter what your height is, it's what's in your heart.

#KirbyPuckett

 

A good sign for the pro-Ervin guys, like myself.

 

Another tidbit, his name is actually Johan Santana but he goes by Ervin because of another pitcher in the league at that time.

[Trevor0333]

Watch Ryan is the mystery Masterson 1 year offer & he signs both pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

 

Since there is nothing more evil and toxic to a union than giving away negotiating leverage.....we have our current situation: virtually no frontloaded contracts.  Just the way it is, not really a commentary if it is smart or not, that's just the explanation.

 

That illogical idea sounds about right.  The union sure isn't giving the agents much credit if they think they couldn't spot GM's trying to use such twisted facts.

[Trevor0333]

A good sign for the pro-Ervin guys, like myself.

 

Another tidbit, his name is actually Johan Santana but he goes by Ervin because of another pitcher in the league at that time.

I just don't like giving up the 2nd but that's also likely keeping the bidding/price tempered as well.

[nicksaviking]

Same for me, I have guys I would've rather taken a chance on but Santana is a good pitcher and we had the money to spend.

 

A four year deal to a guy with a partially torn UCL.  Good luck.  I'll be disappointed if he can't post similar K numbers also.  I'm not expecting him to.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't like the deal but I'm certainly not going to kick and scream if the Twins somehow magically decide that a $100m payroll will not starve the Pohlad children.

[Willihammer]

I guess I just don't understand why that would happen unless team's were using current salray instead of AAV. No agent is going to sit across from the table from a GM trying to peddle the idea a comparable player with an AAV of $15 million should only be worth $6 million because that's what his salary was last year. Neither side would be naive enough to think the other truely doesn't understand the difference.

As mentioned, there's a time value to money. A front loaded contract has more present value than a backloaded one, that's what both sides are concerned about, not AAV. I would be shocked if the term "aav" entered a multi-year contract negotiation at any point.

[nicksaviking]

I don't like the deal but I'm certainly not going to kick and scream if the Twins somehow magically decide that a $100m payroll will not starve the Pohlad children.

 

Yeah, just like with Nolasco last year, I wasn't  fan of the deal, but I'll applaud Ryan for not sitting on is hands.  I rip him enough for being conservetive, I'd be a hypocrite for not recognizing when he's not.

[tobi0040]

Yeah, just like with Nolasco last year, I wasn't  fan of the deal, but I'll applaud Ryan for not sitting on is hands.  I rip him enough for being conservetive, I'd be a hypocrite for not recognizing when he's not.

 

Yeah.  You have to look at the market rates.

 

Lester  6/155

Liriano 3/39

Mccarthy  4/48

 

You rarely get a good deal in free agency unless you take a guy with some sort of issue that pans out. Like Phil Hughes. Those are riddled with risk too.

 

I prefer 4/50 or so to a guy that is our second best pitcher now.  Over not adding talent to one of the worst rotations in the sport.  I am not overly concerned that this move stops us from keeping our young core together.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Watch Ryan is the mystery Masterson 1 year offer & he signs both pitchers.

Just reported that Masterson has a deal with the Red Sox.

[tobi0040]

Just reported that Masterson has a deal with the Red Sox.

 

I can't ever recall this much action on one day and it is 11 AM

[TheLeviathan]

I can't ever recall this much action on one day and it is 11 AM

 

These Winter Meetings have truly lived up to the billing.  Trades and contracts are flying all over the place.

[nicksaviking]

Twins are not signing anyone as usual with the exception of last year this team is going to stand pat. I don't buy for one minute that they did not try to trade Eduardo Escobar for Dillion Gee.

The Twins reported offer to Santana 4 years 50 million is a joke and only a veiled attempt to pretend they were interested in signing Ervin Santana and to say look we tried to put our money out there like they always do but nobody would take it. When Santana's agent is already on record saying he wants 4 years and 65 million you don't put an offer out there that 77% of that, if you get to 85 to say 88% of what they are asking you likely hook the player. Santana is likely looking at his last big contract and wants to be set for the rest of it, there is risk involved but a lowball offer at 12.5 million per season when a player made 14.1 last year and you already know is not going to accept less than that is not really making an offer. I know the Twins start out low as they always do with an initial offer, but with as much competition as there is for this guy if you really want him, and you think he can help stabalize your rotation, you go to ownership and say let's stretch a little bit and get this guy. On Nolasco last year I think they panicked and were not competing against anyone else but were so desperate to get something done that they way overpayed the market on Nolasco. This year there is a lot of heat and competition for Santana and a lot of people seeking his services so I don't know what benefit it is to get it out there that the reported offer is a low end of the potential market type offer.  

 

Well let's wait to see where Santana signs before we overreact and call it a joke.

 

After he signs, we are all allowed to overreact.

[SwainZag]

Twins are not signing anyone as usual with the exception of last year this team is going to stand pat. I don't buy for one minute that they did not try to trade Eduardo Escobar for Dillion Gee.

The Twins reported offer to Santana 4 years 50 million is a joke and only a veiled attempt to pretend they were interested in signing Ervin Santana and to say look we tried to put our money out there like they always do but nobody would take it. When Santana's agent is already on record saying he wants 4 years and 65 million you don't put an offer out there that is 77% of that figure, you may start at say 80 percent and if you get to 85 to say 88% of what they are asking for,  you likely hook the player. Santana is likely looking at his last big contract and wants to be set for the rest of it, there is risk involved but a lowball offer at 12.5 million per season when a player made 14.1 last year and you already know he is not going to accept less than that is not really making an offer. I know the Twins start out low as they always do with an initial offer, but with as much competition as there is for this guy if you really want him, and you think he can help stabalize your rotation, you go to ownership and say let's stretch a little bit and get this guy.

On Nolasco last year I think they panicked and were not competing against anyone else but were so desperate to get something done that they way overpayed the market on Nolasco. This year there is a lot of heat and competition for Santana and a lot of people seeking his services so I don't know what benefit it is to get it out there that the reported offer is a low end of the potential market type offer. With the Yankees now in pursuit and the Giants still interested you know were are pretty much 4th to 5th fiddle in this deal. I get the sense the Twins don't really want to sign Ervin Santana they just want the illusion that they were trying to do something to be out there.

Everyone in the division did something to improve themselves at these winter meetings, the Twins the last place team stood pat and patted themselves on the back that they tried to spend some money but just couldn't find any takers.

This franchise is not serious about getting better or contending they are content to take your money at the turnstile and play studio baseball.

 

Pessimistic much?  At least wait until he makes a decisions to rip the team for not signing him and sitting on their hands.  Seems like a fair offer from what is reported.  Also....you should learn about paragraphs, makes things easier to read.

[Linus]

A four year deal to a guy with a partially torn UCL.  Good luck.  I'll be disappointed if he can't post similar K numbers also.  I'm not expecting him to.

I'm glad they are hopefully getting a pitcher that isn't more back of the rotation stuff but I completely agree about the UCL issue.  Because Ryan values durability, I 'm surprised this is happening.

[SwainZag]

I'm glad they are hopefully getting a pitcher that isn't more back of the rotation stuff but I completely agree about the UCL issue.  Because Ryan values durability, I 'm surprised this is happening.

I haven't seen anything regarding the UCL since before the 2014 season, are there any new reports?  I also imagine a pretty in depth physical will be happening before as well.

[DaveW]

If they get it done for 4/65 I will be pretty damn pleased. Yes, he isn't the "ace" everyone dreams for, but for 15 mil a year you are getting a guy who is dependable, has a long history of success in the AL and will keep you in ballgames.

To the people complaining about signing a 32 year old...that's just the nature of the game, any good to great younger pitcher 27-29 is either locked up, uber expensive or has a lot of red flags (injuries, ineffectiveness etc)

 

The Twins rotation was still a dumpster fire last year, getting a guy who can slot in as a really nice #3 (or a poor mans ace until one of Meyer etc step up) is a good move for this club that will hardly hamstring the future. This also opens the door to possibly moving Nolasco if he can regain his form, or being able to move one of the young pitchers like Gibson to fill an additional hole.

[DaveW]

I haven't seen anything regarding the UCL since before the 2014 season, are there any new reports?  I also imagine a pretty in depth physical will be happening before as well.

Yeah, Santana has pretty much been as healthy as a starting pitcher in MLB can possibly be (knock on wood...twice), if there is anything close to a significant UCL injury I'm sure the Twins and others would stay away or not offer 3-4 years.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Nope, in Ervin Santana, I see a guy who is inconsistent until he is pitching for a contract. 

 

Anyone is welcome to address how much confidence they have that Santana will be $15 million dollars better than Alex Meyer the next few years.