A's Trade 3B Donaldson to Toronto

[Seth Stohs]

This evening, the Oakland A's traded All Star 3B Josh Donaldson, one of baseball's most valuable players the last couple of seasons, to the Toronto Blue Jays. In return, they received 3B Brett Lawrie, RHP Kendall Graveman, LHP Sean Nolin and SS Franklin Barreto. 

[nicksaviking]

Not a bad return, but Donaldson looks to be under-valued here.  Looks like another case of the A's moving a guy before he gets cost prohibitive.  Those guys have to get a new stadium, hopefully in a more prosperous section of the Bay area.

[biggentleben]

Mentioned in the offseason thread already.

 

Lawrie covers 3B for the A's, Nolin slots into the rotation as he was going to do for the Blue Jays, Graveman will be getting a lot of helium this offseason as a 3/4 starter type who blew through the minors last offseason, and Barreto is an 18 y/o middle infielder who posted an .865 OPS last year in low-A.

[TheLeviathan]

I would tend to think the Blue Jays got good value here. This is only one top 100 prospect and a flailing former top prospect.

[biggentleben]

I would tend to think the Blue Jays got good value here. This is only one top 100 prospect and a flailing former top prospect.

 

Lawrie and Donaldson are virtual equals defensively, but Lawrie can't stay healthy.  Both are first year arby eligible, but Lawrie will get 1/3 to 1/2 of what Donaldson does and is 4 years younger.  I still like the deal for Toronto, but it's a high-risk, high-reward return for Oakland that could pay off huge in the end as well.

[TheLeviathan]

Lawrie and Donaldson are virtual equals defensively, but Lawrie can't stay healthy. Both are first year arby eligible, but Lawrie will get 1/3 to 1/2 of what Donaldson does and is 4 years younger. I still like the deal for Toronto, but it's a high-risk, high-reward return for Oakland that could pay off huge in the end as well.

A lot of that hinges on Lawrie translating that talent finally. I just have to think there might have been more out there for Oakland for a guy this good with this much team control left.

[twinsfan34]

And with the possible redux trade of  Matt Holiday-Carlos Gonzalez-Michael Taylor in the works (Samardjia)...could be a really rough few years ahead for Mr. Beane and his A's.

 

Despite his trades, and to his credit, Mr. Beane is an expert in dumpster dives and drafting.

[nicksaviking]

And with the possible redux trade of  Matt Holiday-Carlos Gonzalez-Michael Taylor in the works (Samardjia)...could be a really rough few years ahead for Mr. Beane and his A's.

 

Despite his trades, and to his credit, Mr. Beane is an expert in dumpster dives and drafting.

 

And signing guys who's skills take advantage of their unique ballpark.

[Bark's Lounge]

This trade looks to be in the favor of the Bluejays upon first glimpse, but Beane might have some blueprint for this move. I will take a guess and he is going to trade Shark or Kasmir for more prospects.

 

This might be the end of the A's couple year run and Beane took some high risk chances last season and feels the itch to push the restart button. Maybe the writing is on the wall through his spectacles and he thinks it is time to build a new model. He definitely gained some depth with the starting pitchers he acquired and the SS has some upside in the distant future. Brett Lawrie, if he can stay healthy, has a chance to be an impact player. This trade to me, is a semi-kind of surrender, but I think the A's can still have a chance next year, probably not, but maybe.

 

For the Bluejays, they certainly have acquired a player in Donaldson who is on the cusp of elite, but this does not fill any holes for them, they still need a second baseman. Lawrie was slated to either play 2B or 3B, now that he is gone - the Bluejays are still in the same position they were in before this trade, but with less SP depth, but one has to imagine that Anthoupolos has a plan also, but now it is narrowed down to 2B and a starting pitcher.

 

We'll see what happens, but both of these teams do not thrill me. It is a noteworthy trade that will in the end not have a lasting effect on both ball clubs.

[ashbury]

Guess I'll be the contrarian here and expect that in a few years we'll look back at this as a good trade for the As.

[jokin]

And signing guys who's skills take advantage of their unique ballpark.

 

You got that right, Nick.  Sean Nolin led the Eastern League in 2013 in IFFB% (w/ more than 90 IP- 11.8% [vs., May @ 11.1%]) and he was 3rd in the International League in 2014 (w/ more than 87 IP, 11% [vs. Meyer 10.3%, May 10.0%]). Trevor May was the 2014 H/9 leader in the IL @ 7.1, Nolin was #5 @ 7.6.  Those are the kind of batted ball numbers that are tailor-made for O.Com.

 

Add that Nolin is a MiLB 9.2 K/9 strikeout pitcher, and you've got a big, soon-to-be 25-year-old LHSP who is odds-on a likely regular rotation guy. I can easily see him with the potential to quickly surpass Drew Pomerantz and Jesse Chavez in the A's pitching hierarchy.

[biggentleben]

Guess I'll be the contrarian here and expect that in a few years we'll look back at this as a good trade for the As.

 

I think it's a fair trade as it is, despite what guys like Keith Law might say.  I think the highest upside is absolutely in the Oakland end while the highest floor is in the Toronto end.

[jokin]

Guess I'll be the contrarian here and expect that in a few years we'll look back at this as a good trade for the As.

 

Au contraire, Sir Contrarian, you are not alone.  I think Beane took a good calculated risk.  Brett Lawrie is plenty young enough (only 25 in January), and talented enough, to bounce back from these nagging, but non-chronic injuries.   In which case, Beane can flip him in a year or two, and get another good haul in return.  In addition,  MLB.com has already put 18-year-old Franklin Barreto as the A's #3 prospect, with an ETA to the majors in just two years.  In a couple of years, before the 2017 season starts, in exchange for Donaldson, the A's might have a couple of good rotation starters, plus a potential high-impact rookie starting position player, plus whatever haul they might get from trading a rejuvenated and impactful Lawrie after 2015 or 2016.

[big dog]

And Mr. Beane once again plays Stratomatic baseball.  I'll repeat something I said during the summer- I would have a hard time being a fan of a team that was constantly rebooting by trading away very good and popular players as if they were stocks, trying to capture some small alpha of difference.  Especially since, like most active fund managers, his returns don't have much of a payoff.

 

I continue to think that his fan base would like to keep a few talented players around for a while, just for kicks.  So of course now he's going to trade Shark- that's what he does.  Analysts love it, the fans stay away,  And the A's have only won one playoff series since 1990 (beating the Twins in 2006, of course), but Beane's a genius.   In fact, they have 6 first-round exits since 2000, not including the one-game wild-card loss this fall.  He gets a pass on the same thing people here use to trash the Twins.

 

I don't think his trades are bad, in a vacuum- far from it.  But what's he really done?  Besides not persuade anyone to build the team a stadium, not persuade fans to attend the games, and having a lot of first-round exits in the playoffs?  Oh, right, Brad Pitt played him in a movie.

 

I'll hold Beane to the same standard people hold Ryan and other GMs.  Don't show me "value-maximizing" trades.  Show me the ring.

[TheLeviathan]

I think anyone wanting to see this as a good move by Beane are forgetting how frequently these kinds of moves by him don't work out.  The Tim Hudson trade was a disaster, the Dan Haren netted only one thing of value and that was flipped for Matt Holliday who was flipped for a poor package.

 

He doesn't have nearly as sterling a record trading as he does drafting and signing.  Lawrie has struggled to be league average, Nolin's K rate has declined as he advanced with most people giving him a fourth starter ceiling, and Graveman is likely a reliever.

 

They gave that up for an elite defender with a 126 and 142 OPS+ the last two seasons who has four years of team control left.  Sorry, but as a guy with a lot of respect for what Billy Beane has done, this stinks of another Tim Hudson deal.  In fact, the package here makes me think they know something about Donaldson the rest of us don't.

[old nurse]

Beane can draft pitchers but his 2014 position players were acquired by trade or FA (Crisp, Moss, Cespedes). Even then, this year his rotation this year was mostly acquired through trades due to injuries

[old nurse]

The Twins probably wouldn't have had quite the pitching prospects they were looking for,, but dang.

[Linus]

Fun stuff to think / post about instead of the hypothetical situations.

 

I think Beane's reputation is better than his results due to Moneyball, etc. which I think is an advantage he simply doesn't have anymore.

 

To make matters worse, he has stadium and payroll issues that somewhat force him to push the boundaries in a way other clubs don't have to.  Makes for good fun for us armchair GMs.

[beckmt]

I found a couple of items interesting.  Think this trade was about equal, but Beane has to push boundaries due to his ballpark and payroll concerns.  Second item was it is hard to build a very good farm system when you are drafting every year higher than 10.  Sort of like the Wild you get good players, but not any franchise players unless you are very lucky or roll the dice everyear by taking injured players or high injury risk players.  Beane went all in last year and it did not work out, so this year is to regroup on the fly and hope things roll your way. 

Trades seem to be way up this year, should be an interesting offseason.  

[maxisagod]

Franklin Barreto is a personal favorite of mind. Top International signing of his class, can stick at short, five tools, and just low enough down the totem pole where his value is still a question mark, so his market is not fully developed, but he could explode into a top 20 prospect.  I think this will turn into a big win down the road for the A's, like Chuck Knoblauch trade good, where the Jays get a piece to help them compete now, and the A's get years and years of value for a decade. 

[jokin]

Nolin's K rate has declined as he advanced with most people giving him a fourth starter ceiling, and Graveman is likely a reliever.

 

  In fact, the package here makes me think they know something about Donaldson the rest of us don't.

 

Sean Nolin K-rates for his primary team and level-

 

2010-  A- 10.24

2011-   A    9.39

2012-  A+  9.38

2013-  AA 10,00

2014-  AAA 7.63

 

I don't see the trend in declining K-rate you speak of.

 

His minor league stat line, on the surface anyway, appears would work quite well in the spacious  Colosseum.

[twinsfan34]

I believe he sold Donaldson, at least 1-2 years too quick.

For the 2015 Season:
2015 Payroll will be sans Cespedes and Jim Johnson as they are off the books at $10M a pop in 2014 ($20M total). Donaldson's Arb1 wouldn't have been that spendy (~$4.5M-$8M).

 

For the 2016 Season:

Donald's Arb2 (~$8M-$12M) would be comparable to Coco Crisp and Kazmir who are playing 2015 at $10M-$13M, thus coming off the books is $23M in those two players.

The puzzling parts when you're trying to 'off salary'.
Brandon Moss cost $4.1M in 2014 and for 2015 will be a Arb3 player...he'll cost ($7M-$11M) and provide 1/3 the WAR (2-2.6) as Donaldson (7.4-8).

Add to the fact, it seems every year Beane just throws away $10M at someone.

 

Recent ones include:

2014 - Jim Johnson (RP) - $10M

2013 - Chris Young (OF) - $8.7M

2010 - Ben Sheets (P) - $10M

 

So who's Beane's candidate for 2015? I don't believe he's signed that $10M waste just yet, however, let's go with what we have. Let Billy Butler be presented as exhibit A.

Butler will cost $6.7M, $11.7M, & $11.7M each of the next 3 years. Butler is at best, a 2-3 WAR player with no Def to offer in sight. He had a NEGATIVE total WAR in 2014. He'll be 29 next year and his affinity for Dunkin Donuts isn't getting any weaker. Donaldson is 7-9 WAR for the same cost for the next two seasons. Year 3, he'll cost more than Butler's $11.7M. But my argument was 2 years, not 3. I would look to trade Donaldson, in year 2 at the All-Star break (if not competing) or Winter 2016.

 

Here's two articles making some guesses on salaries for the A's Arb eligible players:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/10/3/6895901/2015-oakland-athletics-salary-arbitration-and-payroll-estimate

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2015.html

 

 

Other References:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/oakland-athletics/

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mossbr01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/butlebi03.shtml

[Thrylos]

Great trade for the A's.   Do not look now, but Lowrie is just 24 and his OPS+ been around 100 for a while and the As are not loosing much there (.247/.301/.421 vs .255/.342/.456 for Donaldson in 2014; both had worse 2014s than 2013s).  Both of the pitchers are very good prospects with mid-rotation or end of pen stuff, and the 18 year old shortstop might be the key to that trade.  .311/.384/.481 26 SB and 6 HRs as an 18 year old in short season A Ball  (73 games) is nothing to frown about.

 

If the Twins get anything similar to this for Dozier, they should do it in a heartbeat. 

[Mike Sixel]

Let me know when the As lose 90 games under Beane. ....

[TheLeviathan]

Let me know when the As lose 90 games under Beane. ....

Billy Beane is a great and resourceful GM, but that doesn't make him infallible. He got two pitchers considered backend starters, an oft injured former top prospect who hasn't produced and a SS in A ball with promise.

 

That just isn't much of a haul for a guy making very little money with a ton of control left. I think it's hilarious people are suggesting Lawrie's cheaper Arby prices are a win for Beane. They're only cheaper because Donaldson is miles better as a player! Of course you pay less for a worse player, that isn't a win.

[Mike Sixel]

I was commenting on those that think he isnt good in general, not this trade. They don't bottom out, and yet still rise up again. Big contrast with many other teams.

[jokin]

I was commenting on those that think he isnt good in general, not this trade. They don't bottom out, and yet still rise up again. Big contrast with many other teams.

 

Were you thinking of any team in particular, here?

[Mike Sixel]

Were you thinking of any team in particular, here?

nope.

[big dog]

Let me know when the As lose 90 games under Beane. ....

Let me know when he wins more playoff series than one. That's my goal.

[Mike Sixel]

Gotta get to the playoffs to win any series......I assume you dislike TR, then? Since the Twins don't win series, and don't even get to the playoffs?