Offseason outlook at mlbtraderumors

[drjim]

If they trade Plouffe for a MLB player that fills another hole, that would be ok with me. If they deal Plouffe for a guy in A ball, or 2 years away or more, I will not be happy. Not sure they can get a legit LF for Plouffe right now.

 

Then I assure you you will be OK with the offseason in regards to Plouffe. They absolutely are not dumping him for a minor leaguer.

 

Why wouldn't they be able to get a legit LF (or SP) for a legit 3B? There are actually a lot of teams that could potentially use Plouffe - NYY, Bos, Bal (if Hardy leaves and Machado goes to SS), Atl?, Phil?, Mil?, StL (depending on how it shakes out), Pit (if Alvarez moves to 1B), Cin, LAD, SF, perhaps more.

[tobi0040]

Then I assure you you will be OK with the offseason in regards to Plouffe. They absolutely are not dumping him for a minor leaguer.

 

Why wouldn't they be able to get a legit LF (or SP) for a legit 3B? There are actually a lot of teams that could potentially use Plouffe - NYY, Bos, Bal (if Hardy leaves and Machado goes to SS), Atl?, Phil?, Mil?, StL (depending on how it shakes out), Pit (if Alvarez moves to 1B), Cin, LAD, SF, perhaps more.

 

I too think he has more value than most speculate.

[drjim]

Nothing wrong with Trevor Plouffe, but he seemed to have gotten a lot more praise than I thought was expected for a player of his caliber.  Whether Sano comes up this year or not, if his value is percieved to be that of a decent trade chip, I'm all for moving him because I really only view him as a slightly better than average player. 

 

I like the buy low SP options like Masterson.  I hate the buy high SP options like McCarthy.  Career year and with an anomoly of a K%? No thanks on the 3 year deal it will take to get him. 

 

Plouffe is a legit 3B this year and probably has a couple relatively similar years in him. But I absolutely would trade him for value in the OF or SP.

 

And I agree on your SP thoughts. They are in a position, now that they have some depth in the minors, to try a buy low high upside guy like Masterson and perhaps someone like Brett Anderson if the price is right.

[Mike Sixel]

Teams win by having above average players all over the field with a sprinkling of elite players.  Teams lose by having gaping black holes on the field. A slightly above average player is worth 8-10MM  a year in FA, where would you find more of those, if you trade them away?

[jay]

Nolasco to the Dodgers

Crawford to the Twins

Hamels to the Twins

Arcia to the Phillies

Mid-level prospect from Twins to Phillies

Mid-level prospect from Dodgers to Phillies

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

That might happen if the Phillies fire Ruben Amaro - he wouldn't trade Marlon Byrd for a package like that, I'm guessing he wants even more for Hamels - he'd probably get as a far as "Buxt-" before Ryan hangs up the phone.

[tobi0040]

That might happen if the Phillies fire Ruben Amaro - he wouldn't trade Marlon Byrd for a package like that, I'm guessing he wants even more for Hamels - he'd probably get as a far as "Buxt-" before Ryan hangs up the phone.

 

I think it takes much more than Arcia and a series of mid-levels for Hamels as well.  I think they get two blue chips or hold onto Cole.

[Brandon]

To build on this point some more, 3B might be where Dozier ultimately ends up once Polanco comes up and Sano moves to the OF.

 

They could start the season with Santana/Escobar/Nunez/possibly part time 3B stopgap manning the position, with Sano getting first shot and then shuffling a little once Polanco is ready. Take a little hit on offense but would be potentially a very solid defensive infield.

Dozier didn't have the arm for SS he probably doesn't have the arm for 3B.

[Brandon]

There are other tradechips then Plouffe on the team.  Why trade him now when we can trade one of the other chips.  Also we need a solid starter.  Cincy has several.  The Mets have 2.  I was going to ask about a trade of Escobar to the Mets for Gee or Niese? or atleast the framework of a deal. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Great, and then you possibly have the still-all-too-real scenario of Sano not working out at 3B, and a utility guy playing out of position at 3B both before Sano gets here and after, if he fails, until.... when....? Just who is the next ACTUAL 3B option at the position in this outcome?

My post sort of assumes that you like Sano's odds of sticking at 3B.  If that's not the case, obviously you probably hold onto your incumbent third baseman.

 

That said, Plouffe may have just had a peak season, he's starting to cost more money, and he will flip over to "the wrong side of 30" in 2016.  Even if you keep him and Sano doesn't stick, you're still more than likely going to need another solution at the position, long-term and perhaps even short-term.

[tobi0040]

There are other tradechips then Plouffe on the team.  Why trade him now when we can trade one of the other chips.  Also we need a solid starter.  Cincy has several.  The Mets have 2.  I was going to ask about a trade of Escobar to the Mets for Gee or Niese? or atleast the framework of a deal. 

 

I don't see a centerpiece of Escobar netting anything of value.  He had a couple of really good months at the plate, but his numbers pre-this year are pretty bad.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Maybe Alceides Escobar, but Eddie I think needs another season with similar or better numbers before he's the centerpiece in a trade.

[drjim]

I don't see a centerpiece of Escobar netting anything of value.  He had a couple of really good months at the plate, but his numbers pre-this year are pretty bad.

 

Yes. Escobar has some value but like you said he can't be the centerpiece to get a mid-rotation starter.

[TheLeviathan]

No doubt he would help our defense, but if Buxton is up this year he can't play a corner.  I don't see the long term potential to justify even taking reps from Schafer or Hicks.

I'm not going to hold off on improving CF to wait on Buxton. If Boujos can rebound from his buy low point now, then you have a good problem to have when Buxton is ready.

 

Bourjos alone would make me pretty optimistic going into next year.

[tobi0040]

I'm not going to hold off on improving CF to wait on Buxton. If Boujos can rebound from his buy low point now, then you have a good problem to have when Buxton is ready.

 

Bourjos alone would make me pretty optimistic going into next year.

 

Yeah.  If we got him on a 1 year deal and cut Schafer that would be fine. Especially if it locks in Santana at SS. 

 

I just think we really like Schafer and he will be in the mix next year.  Along with a LF we bring in, Arcia, and Hicks.

[RealTwinsFan357]

My top two trade candidates are Plouffe and Pinto. If it's to improve the outfield and rotation rather than to get more prospects, this could help our team now. Escobar can definitely fill in as a stop-gap third baseman until that position solidifies, and if Sano can't stick there I would be OK with trying Dozier or Santana at third, especially if Polanco sticks at short.

[USAFChief]

If Bourgeois was a solution in CF, it seems odd he'd be on his third team in three years.

 

I think people are overreacting to a perceived need to improve the OF defense at all costs.

[tobi0040]

If Bourgeois was a solution in CF, it seems odd he'd be on his third team in three years.

 

I think people are overreacting to a perceived need to improve the OF defense at all costs.

 

I sort of agree, but being beat out for the Angels is sort of explainable.

[stringer bell]

 

If Bourgeois was a solution in CF, it seems odd he'd be on his third team in three years.

 

I think people are overreacting to a perceived need to improve the OF defense at all costs.

Chief, I have agreed with your take about corner outfield defense. Still do. That said, having a ++center fielder would improve the outfield defense dramatically IMHO. If Bourjas (sp?) can hit enough to hold that spot it would really be helpful. Not sure about the bat though.

[tobi0040]

 

Chief, I have agreed with your take about corner outfield defense. Still do. That said, having a ++center fielder would improve the outfield defense dramatically IMHO. If Bourjas (sp?) can hit enough to hold that spot it would really be helpful. Not sure about the bat though.

He has not been able to in the past, that is for sure (.690 OPS).

[TheLeviathan]

If Bourgeois was a solution in CF, it seems odd he'd be on his third team in three years.

 

I think people are overreacting to a perceived need to improve the OF defense at all costs.

 

Well that's a poor way to judge things.  He was dealt from LAA because they already have a pretty nice CF you may have heard of.

 

He didn't work well in St. Louis but his defense is exceptional and both of his complete years in LAA were fine offensively.  It's price dependent, but he'd fit a variety of needs for the club.  (Buy low, defensive CF, cheap, good speed)

[SwainZag]

What about Arcia and Dozier to the Jays for Jose Bautista and a AA pitching prospect.

Arcia is borderline defensively but enough of a developing power hitter that it would likely interest the Jays.

Same for Dozier, team controllable guy so for Joey Bat's you have to give up two solid pieces.

Dozier and Arcia are good players but the Twins have not done a lot of winning with either guy in the line-up.

Dozier is the guy that you might be able to build around in a trade for Bautista.

The positions that Arcia and Dozier play project strength in the Twins farm system. If your going to deal from a position to attract a big bat or a quality starting pitcher why not deal from a position of strenghth?

To me you can back fill Doziers spot with any number of players, Escobar to start or a Polanco or Rosario could fill this role and provide about as much defense as Dozier does. You lose some power and some pop but you gain some speed and offset the defense. Dozier is easily the most marketable and valuable trade trip the Minnesota Twins have. He is a player with enough value that he would actually net something decent in return.

 

I don't want to see the Minnesota Twins deal away two center fielders again and then struggle to back fill the starting position on a major league roster for two plus years again. Hicks appears to have been much farther away than a Polanco or Rosario project to be. Escobar is a solid defender and just enough of a bat that he could be a solid to good second basemen.

I want Danny Santanna with his arm and speed all day every day at short stop.

Danny Santanna is going to be the starting short stop on any Twins contender that contends for an actual championship and makes a playoff run. Santanna has too valuable an arm to be wasting anywhere else, the kid is an elite level defender and the right kind of spark you want in a leadoff guy. He just has that it factor to him. Escobar can provide to the Twins what Dozier can so to me he is an expendable valuable commodity.

 

I don't see how this trade makes sense for the Twins.  Bautista turns 34 in 2 weeks and while he is still a productive player at his age, he has 2 years left on his deal both $14M.  He is likely gone in 2 seasons.  

 

Meanwhile you are trading 27 year old Dozier, who is coming off his best season and is controlled for 4 more seasons and 23 year old Arcia, who while he isn't a + defender, I think we have only seen a glimpse of the hitter he can be.  IMO this type of trade would be a step back for a team in the current situation the Twins are in.

[Physics Guy]

Well that's a poor way to judge things.  He was dealt from LAA because they already have a pretty nice CF you may have heard of.

 

He didn't work well in St. Louis but his defense is exceptional and both of his complete years in LAA were fine offensively.  It's price dependent, but he'd fit a variety of needs for the club.  (Buy low, defensive CF, cheap, good speed)

What two complete years with LAA?  He didn't break 200 PA other than 2011.  It's pretty hard to gauge his batting record without more data.  Was he playing only when he had good matchups?  His .692 career OPS is pretty good for a defensive CF, but it would mean more if he had two or three full seasons worth of AB's.

[Platoon]

If Bourgeois was a solution in CF, it seems odd he'd be on his third team in three years.

I think people are overreacting to a perceived need to improve the OF defense at all costs.

The twins OF defense would look completely different with even an adequate CF. For all his physical talent Santana really did not help out the corner guys at all. I like Santana a lot. As a middle infielder and lead off man. Who knows, someday he could even be a decent CF, but I hear they have another guy coming up the pipe. Oswaldo is not going to win any Gold Gleves, but I have the distinct feeling that if you trade him, in 2-3 years the level of remorse will make the whining over Cuddy, Morneau, Span, and Revere pale in comparison. Big guys like him do not become polished hitters at 23.

[Thrylos]

Sano is not coming up anytime soon next year, imo.

 

rewind a year ago:

 

Sano was a couple years ahead of Vargas (in my book) and Vargas was held back by the Twins' organization (again, in my book) last season (and for reference, I had ranked Vargas as the Twins' 5th prospect mid 2014, try to see any similar rankings )

 

If you like what Vargas did after he was called up and rolling your eyeballs about Kubel, Willingham, Morales and Colabello taking at bats instead of him, you would love Sano.

 

I promise.  He is ready, let him rip.

 

(and do you all remember Barry Larkin and Randy Bush? That would be a perfect role for Plouffe)

[biggentleben]

This time of year is when the real crazy trade ideas come out, even more so than either trade deadline.

 

The comment earlier about the dearth of good free agent pitching options is simply wrong.  This may be one of the best free agent pitching classes in decades.  With the commonality of extensions for young players, especially pitchers, you don't typically see guys like Lester, Shields, and Scherzer in one free agent class, let alone the guys in the tiers below.  I think someone's going to get a very good deal on a guy like Gavin Floyd this offseason because there's so much good pitching available that people will see "injured elbow - out for rest of 2014" and think ligament and leave him alone.  The interesting part will be seeing which players get drastically overpaid because a team thinks it's "setting the market" early.

[stringer bell]

(and do you all remember Barry Larkin and Randy Bush? That would be a perfect role for Plouffe)

Barry Larkin!  HOF shortstop. Don't think Plouffe is up for that. Sorry, Thry, couldn't resist.

 

On the larger point of Sano, without the injury I suppose he would already be up and perhaps hitting better than Vargas. A years worth of rust will have to be scraped off, so I expect it will be midseason until he is ready.

[Thrylos]

Barry Larkin!  HOF shortstop. Don't think Plouffe is up for that. Sorry, Thry, couldn't resist..

 

Oops! Geno

[jorgenswest]

They can improve the OF defense considerably by bringing up Buxton once he passes the service time date a couple of weeks into the season. Let him provide outstanding defense while he figures out major league pitching. I don't want to see any veteran delaying his start with the Twins.

 

Schafer has a 72 OPS+ after 1400 major league plate appearances. He is 28. His only adequate position defensively is LF where his bat will never play. If the new manager see a bench role for a 5th OF/ pinch runner, keep him until they need the roster spot for an extra pitcher.