Offseason outlook at mlbtraderumors

[gunnarthor]

Another poster mentioned this - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-minnesota-twins-5.html

 

Lots of stuff in there, including projected arbitration dollars.  But also this -

 

"One interesting point to consider (a topic which Andrew Bryz-Gornia noted at SB Nation’s Twinkie Town) is the future of Plouffe. The former first-rounder quietly had an excellent season (3+ rWAR and fWAR) and looks to have found a home at third base. The only problem is that Miguel Sano is the Twins’ heir apparent at third and could force his way onto the Major League roster next season. It’s possible that the Twins could once again shift Plouffe’s position to a corner outfield spot (they employed a similar trajectory with Michael Cuddyer early in his career), but with an in-house stopgap such as Escobar under control, Plouffe strikes me as an under-the-radar trade target for teams in need of help at the hot corner."

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Beat me to it - thanks for posting it!

 

I like that they acknowledge the key areas for improvement - the rotation and the outfield. 

 

I wouldn't be disappointed if the Twins managed to sign McCarthy, the GB% is a good point for a team like the Twins with a better infield than outfield defensively.

 

Commenters are quick to point out the bad Pelfrey contract (thanks)

[Mike Sixel]

Sano is not coming up anytime soon next year, imo. There is zero reason to trade Plouffe at this point. Zero.

 

Sano might not even stick at third. I don't think I trade Plouffe at all for the next two years.......no way.

[gunnarthor]

I don't think there's a lot out there on the FA front.  McCarthy could be ok but ... kinda bland.  Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco are locks for the rotation.  I think Gibson has pitched well enough that we can expect some improvement and Nolasco can't be this bad but that leaves two spots.  If Pelfrey is healthy, he gets one.  May doesn't have much left to prove in AAA.  I thought Milone would be better than he was with us.  Meyer should be in the majors.  I know that pitchers get hurt and they'll probably end up using 10 starters over the course of the year, but I don't really want another Pelfrey type blocking starts from May and Meyer.  

 

I'd rather they try and upgrade the OF defense instead.  I've been advocating Rasmus for a while but maybe Ryan can pull off a trade to add a solid player to LF instead.  

[Boom Boom]

Sano is not coming up anytime soon next year, imo. There is zero reason to trade Plouffe at this point. Zero.

 

Sano might not even stick at third. I don't think I trade Plouffe at all for the next two years.......no way.

 

Yup.  I've got to see Sano first come up, and also prove he's got the chops to handle third base before I'd even consider it.

 

I'd even consider having Sano take reps in left field just to keep Plouffe at third.

[Mike Sixel]

If they can't find a high upside SP......I'd much rather they concentrate on OF defense than OF offense right now (assuming they can't find both......).

[Brandon]

There are numerous good pitchers available for trade this off season.   would be ok if we traded for one of them.

[jay]

Ooh, I love these.  It's like a teaser for the Offseason Handbook.

[Mike Sixel]

Yup.  I've got to see Sano first come up, and also prove he's got the chops to handle third base before I'd even consider it.

 

I'd even consider having Sano take reps in left field just to keep Plouffe at third.

 

Put Sano in RF (get it over with), and trade Arcia and something else for something else.......but I'd like to give Sano a shot at 3B in AAA before I made that decision.....but I'd make it sooner than probably the Twins. 

[jokin]

Beat me to it - thanks for posting it!

 

I like that they acknowledge the key areas for improvement - the rotation and the outfield. 

 

I wouldn't be disappointed if the Twins managed to sign McCarthy, the GB% is a good point for a team like the Twins with a better infield than outfield defensively.

 

Commenters are quick to point out the bad Pelfrey contract (thanks)

 

 

Absolutely!  I've been in favor of this move since his last FA.  I'm wondering what it would take to convince him to consider the Twins,former A's teammate Kurt Suzuki to place a couple phone calls?

[TheLeviathan]

I love the idea of shopping Plouffe, I just have doubts about receiving fair value in return.

[tobi0040]

I think Sano needs every shot at 3B as that is where his value is the highest.  He is a big guy but has a cannon, so hopefully some footwork with new coach Molitor (prediction) can help. 

 

But we need clarity there before you move Plouffe, he is a darn good 3B at a thin position.  You would hate to move him and then need to find a 3B because Sano does not move out.

 

If you get absolutely blown away AND you think it is an 80%+ chance Sano sticks, then maybe you take a calculated risk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think there's a lot out there on the FA front.  McCarthy could be ok but ... kinda bland.  Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco are locks for the rotation.  I think Gibson has pitched well enough that we can expect some improvement and Nolasco can't be this bad but that leaves two spots.  If Pelfrey is healthy, he gets one.  May doesn't have much left to prove in AAA.  I thought Milone would be better than he was with us.  Meyer should be in the majors.  I know that pitchers get hurt and they'll probably end up using 10 starters over the course of the year, but I don't really want another Pelfrey type blocking starts from May and Meyer.   

"Another Pelfrey type"?  I don't want the current Pelfrey type blocking anyone either.

 

I pretty much agree, though -- any rotation upgrades this offseason should either be at the top, or at least have top potential (like recent Kazmir/Liriano reclamation projects).  I have no problem if a legitimately good starter pushes a weak link in the current group out -- I just don't want to add anyone who will likely be just another weak link to sort through.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd hate to punt on next year, before the season starts. Dealing Plouffe and starting Sano in AAA would be an admission, imo, that they aren't even trying next year.

[jokin]

Put Sano in RF (get it over with), and trade Arcia and something else for something else.......but I'd like to give Sano a shot at 3B in AAA before I made that decision.....but I'd make it sooner than probably the Twins. 

 

Sano is not coming up anytime soon next year, imo. There is zero reason to trade Plouffe at this point. Zero.

 

Sano might not even stick at third. I don't think I trade Plouffe at all for the next two years.......no way.

 

If Sano has a first half like he had in Ft Myers, the clamor to get him to Minnesota will be deafening.  The Twins should be gently ticking the phone lines for indications of interest for both Plouffe and Arcia, but only with the idea of pulling the trigger on one or the other when and if Sano proves to be ready.  3rd base has finally stabilized, why put it into a state of chaos or having yet another player playing out of position before Sano's future position has been more firmly established?

[Winston Smith]

Trading Arcia for a starter would be my idea. You could move Plouffe to RF and have Escobar play 3rd until Sano comes up if he does.

 

I actually think Plouffe would be better in the outfield than what Arcia is and maybe end a plus player that way. Arcia gives away as many runs as he produces, imo.  Arcia really needs to be a DH and part time outfielder and we have plenty of DH types right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sano is not coming up anytime soon next year, imo. There is zero reason to trade Plouffe at this point. Zero.

 

Sano might not even stick at third. I don't think I trade Plouffe at all for the next two years.......no way.

I think I agree... but Plouffe may be at the peak of his value too.  There is a very real chance you won't be able to trade him for much useful (or get much useful play out of him) if/when Sano is ready, assuming you believe Sano will stick at 3B.

 

That said, Plouffe's "peak" value probably isn't that high either -- it's not like other teams don't know his age/history.  Still, it's one of the few spots the Twins could make a calculated move with right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think trading Plouffe will be an issue next season as long as Sano comes back healthy and hitting. Until then, I'd keep Plouffe at 3rd for another year. I also think that if he builds off of this season, he's going to be worth quite a bit more this offseason.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It might not be a big enough deal for MLB Trade Rumors to mention - but there is the issue of what the Twins will do with the trio of Herrmann, Parmelee, and Colabello. I think at least two of those guys will be removed from the 40 man, most likely the last two.

 

The Twins will need to make room for some of the new kids, some the fringy players may be removed. Not really sure what the Twins think of Nuñez  - it seems like he was a valuable utility guy, but maybe they will prefer Escobar as their long-term Eduardo.

[SwainZag]

Trading Arcia for a starter would be my idea. You could move Plouffe to RF and have Escobar play 3rd until Sano comes up if he does.

 

I actually think Plouffe would be better in the outfield than what Arcia is and maybe end a plus player that way. Arcia gives away as many runs as he produces, imo.  Arcia really needs to be a DH and part time outfielder and we have plenty of DH types right now.

 

What kind of value does Arcia have right now?  Right now he plays below average defense and strikes out 25% of the time.  The power potential is there, but I highly doubt he brings back anything more than a bottom of the rotation type guy.....which we seem to have a plethora of.

[jokin]

I think I agree... but Plouffe may be at the peak of his value too.  There is a very real chance you won't be able to trade him for much useful (or get much useful play out of him) if/when Sano is ready, assuming you believe Sano will stick at 3B.

 

That said, Plouffe's "peak" value probably isn't that high either -- it's not like other teams don't know his age/history.  Still, it's one of the few spots the Twins could make a calculated move with right now.

 

Great, and then you possibly have the still-all-too-real scenario of Sano not working out at 3B, and a utility guy playing out of position at 3B both before Sano gets here and after, if he fails, until.... when....? Just who is the next ACTUAL 3B option at the position in this outcome?

[TheLeviathan]

Also, count me as thrilled if the Twins pursued Bourjos.  He could almost immediately improve our OF defense in leaps and bounds.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't want to trade high anymore, I want them to try to win. Dealing Plouffe with no replacement is a punt on the year, I am not interested in another year of 90 losses......zero interest in it. zero.

[tobi0040]

"Another Pelfrey type"?  I don't want the current Pelfrey type blocking anyone either.

 

I pretty much agree, though -- any rotation upgrades this offseason should either be at the top, or at least have top potential (like recent Kazmir/Liriano reclamation projects).  I have no problem if a legitimately good starter pushes a weak link in the current group out -- I just don't want to add anyone who will likely be just another weak link to sort through.

 

Unfortunately, the quote has been "rotation depth".  That does not sound like what needs to happen, sign one guy that is better than the other five.  Get a 4-6 year deal and jump-start this thing.

[chopper0080]

Yeah, I will believe in Sano when I see him at the major league level.  Too many things can derail prospects between A-Ball and the Majors.  Same goes for Buxton.  Besides, since when has having too many good players ever been a problem for a team?

 

Get the best pieces you can in trades, don't create holes that can't easily be filled, and sign legitimate talent when you can.  As a GM, that is your job.  Provide major league ready talent to your mjor league level roster, and create a farm system that is fostering and developing athletic talent.  Figuring out ways to make all of the pieces fit is the manager's job, and if there is a total logjam of talent, the GM can make moves at that time.

 

Let's not put the cart before the horse at this point.

 

Sign a manager.  Hire a staff.

 

Use trades and free agency to acquire quality MLB talent.

 

Worry about too much talent or guys coming up when they force you to.    For a team coming off it's fourth consecutive 90 loss season, that shouldn't be too difficult.

[tobi0040]

Also, count me as thrilled if the Twins pursued Bourjos.  He could almost immediately improve our OF defense in leaps and bounds.

 

No doubt he would help our defense, but if Buxton is up this year he can't play a corner.  I don't see the long term potential to justify even taking reps from Schafer or Hicks.

[drjim]

I'd hate to punt on next year, before the season starts. Dealing Plouffe and starting Sano in AAA would be an admission, imo, that they aren't even trying next year.

 

But what if they trade Plouffe for a CF or SP? They wouldn't trade Plouffe for prospects.

[drjim]

But what if they trade Plouffe for a CF or SP? They wouldn't trade Plouffe for prospects.

 

To build on this point some more, 3B might be where Dozier ultimately ends up once Polanco comes up and Sano moves to the OF.

 

They could start the season with Santana/Escobar/Nunez/possibly part time 3B stopgap manning the position, with Sano getting first shot and then shuffling a little once Polanco is ready. Take a little hit on offense but would be potentially a very solid defensive infield.

[Mike Sixel]

If they trade Plouffe for a MLB player that fills another hole, that would be ok with me. If they deal Plouffe for a guy in A ball, or 2 years away or more, I will not be happy. Not sure they can get a legit LF for Plouffe right now.

[nicksaviking]

Nothing wrong with Trevor Plouffe, but he seemed to have gotten a lot more praise than I thought was expected for a player of his caliber.  Whether Sano comes up this year or not, if his value is percieved to be that of a decent trade chip, I'm all for moving him because I really only view him as a slightly better than average player. 

 

I like the buy low SP options like Masterson.  I hate the buy high SP options like McCarthy.  Career year and with an anomoly of a K%? No thanks on the 3 year deal it will take to get him.