Ryan on Nolasco for 2015

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nolasco has a track record to be a solid #3 starter. I say let him come back next year and start over. Forget this year. Lots of pitchers have a bad year, an anomoly. He's been solid for a long time. He'll make the adjustments. 

Throwing out his rookie year and this year, Nolasco has a 95 ERA+, averaging 192 IP per season.  That could be a #3, especially on durability, but not sure that's a "solid" #3.  I sure don't like it as the upside for a $37 million bet on a guy coming off a 72 ERA+ and possible injury, especially when that 95 ERA+ record was compiled ages 25-30 and the coming seasons will be ages 32-34.

 

I wish I could have your optimism, Seth.  You represent the Lake Wobegon view at Twins Daily, where instead of everybody being above average, everybody "will make the adjustments."

[tobi0040]

And, because I hate this hatred for a phrase " pitch to contact" more than just about anything. There isn't a team in the major leagues that isn't telling their pitchers to throw strikes and hit the corners. The Twins don't hate strikeouts. They do hate walks. I don't think this is unusual. 

 

The Twins have had pitchers in recent years who miss the corners and get hit hard. And, as others have pointed out, the defense isn't real strong to go with that. There will be hits. 

 

Hughes is doing what the Twins would want... He throws strikes. Most of the time they're on the corners. He's pitching to contact yet he has the ability to miss bats. He is striking out 8.1 per nine, the most he's had in 5 years (since he was a bullpen guy). 

 

Trevor May can miss bats, but after his first couple of starts, he couldn't throw strikes. They returned the focus to throwing strikes. He got hit a bit, made some adjustments, and now he's striking out quite a few too. In his first three starts, he walked 13 and struck out 3 in 9 innings. In his 6 starts since, he has walked 8 and struck out 34 in 30.2 innings. I bet the Twins are just fine with those ratios... I bet every team in baseball would agree.

 

It's not that they don't want strikeouts. Pitchers just have to have the ability to do that. I'm no Rick Anderson supporter, but "Pitch to Contact" is not the issue. 

 

Salary plays a role too.

 

Pitchers that get a lot of strikeouts have good stuff and cost more.  Max S. has a career 9.6 k per 9.  Lester is a career 8.2.  Shields is at 7.7 which is not crazy high,but coupled with a 3.6 K to BB ratio is pretty special 

 

My gut says we are not seriously in the running for either three.

[Seth Stohs]

Salary plays a role too.

 

Pitchers that get a lot of strikeouts have good stuff and cost more.  Max S. has a career 9.6 k per 9.  Lester is a career 8.2.  Shields is at 7.7 which is not crazy high,but coupled with a 3.6 K to BB ratio is pretty special 

 

My gut says we are not seriously in the running for either three.

 

Which speaks to the need to develop those guys rather than pay them when they're 30-31 years old and on the downhill slope of their careers. 

[Mike Sixel]

I say roll with Nolasco, odds of doing better next year are low, imo.

[Mike Sixel]

Which speaks to the need to develop those guys rather than pay them when they're 30-31 years old and on the downhill slope of their careers. 

 

How's that going? Not so well.....

[Platoon]

I just don't see it happening.  He is rock bottom value right now.  Ryan would have to eat a TON of that salary to get him out of the Twin Cities.

 

Since the twins refuse to trade when a player is top dollar, maybe they will give away at bottom dollar.... Or more likely they will do the wort possible thing! NOTHING,

[Linus]

And, because I hate this hatred for a phrase " pitch to contact" more than just about anything. There isn't a team in the major leagues that isn't telling their pitchers to throw strikes and hit the corners. The Twins don't hate strikeouts. They do hate walks. I don't think this is unusual. 

 

The Twins have had pitchers in recent years who miss the corners and get hit hard. And, as others have pointed out, the defense isn't real strong to go with that. There will be hits. 

 

Hughes is doing what the Twins would want... He throws strikes. Most of the time they're on the corners. He's pitching to contact yet he has the ability to miss bats. He is striking out 8.1 per nine, the most he's had in 5 years (since he was a bullpen guy). 

 

Trevor May can miss bats, but after his first couple of starts, he couldn't throw strikes. They returned the focus to throwing strikes. He got hit a bit, made some adjustments, and now he's striking out quite a few too. In his first three starts, he walked 13 and struck out 3 in 9 innings. In his 6 starts since, he has walked 8 and struck out 34 in 30.2 innings. I bet the Twins are just fine with those ratios... I bet every team in baseball would agree.

 

It's not that they don't want strikeouts. Pitchers just have to have the ability to do that. I'm no Rick Anderson supporter, but "Pitch to Contact" is not the issue. 

Thanks, Seth.  You saved me a rant.  The Twins have never said they want their pitchers to get hit; I'm sure they would prefer 27 consecutive strikeouts.  What they are saying is that they want to avoid walks and unfavorable counts by throwing lots of strikes even if it means some balls put in play, hopefully in the form of weak grounders.

[Willihammer]

Nolasco, like Correia, Worley, Marquis, can only point to past success in the NL. I don't know how many more of these guys we need to whiff on but it should be clear that an average #3 in the NL is probably an average #4 in the AL and if he moves to the Twins from the NL becomes an average #6. Nolasco also had an elbow injury which isn't totally reflected by his 32 game stint on the DL. By his own admission, it had been bothering him prior to hitting the DL so there is a gigantic red flag for future injury & ineffectiveness right there. Counting on him to "rebound" into the healthy player he was in the NL seems pretty foolish at this point, and thankfully that doesn't seem to be Ryan's plan.

[Oxtung]

Which speaks to the need to develop those guys rather than pay them when they're 30-31 years old and on the downhill slope of their careers. 

 

I think everyone agrees with that as a general philosophy.  Unfortunately that isn't the reality we live in.  The Twins haven't developed an Ace since Santana.  So their choice is either pay for one or don't have one.

[Willihammer]

Nolasco for Crawford?

 

Crawford's actually had a decent bounceback. He is owed 24m more than Nolasco over the next 3 years.

 

edit: Looks like CC has a limited no-trade clause in his contract.

[Winston Smith]

I'd make the Nolasco for Crawford trade.

[Kelly Vance]

I think the Twins would have to take Carlos Silva and Milton Bradley for him.

I don't think the Twins could trade him for Omar Bradley.

[nicksaviking]

I think everyone agrees with that as a general philosophy.  Unfortunately that isn't the reality we live in.  The Twins haven't developed an Ace since Santana.  So their choice is either pay for one or don't have one.

 

And drafting/scouting them is a different story.  Houston was the team with the foresight to offer him a contract.  Wth pardons to Brad Radke, the Twins haven't drafted/signed AND developed an ace since Frank Viola in 1981 and their only other homegrown ace would have been Bert Blyleven in 1969, though I'd entertain the idea that Dave Boswell would have become one had he not gotten injured.

 

Identifying piitchers that could develop into top of the rotation arms seems to be the biggest issue. Hopefully May and Meyer will work out great, but it would be nice if they could draft their own and not have to deal off assets to acqure these pitchers.  Hopefully Berrios and Stewart make the scouts evaluating the pitchers look good for the first time in a couple decades.

[Blackjack]

Anything you could get for Nolasco, right now, when he's at his lowest value, wouldn't be worth the piece of paper its written on.  If they keep him they at least have the possibility of a servicable starter next year.

 

Do you suppose after this cluncker of a year he'll come to camp ready to prove something??

[tobi0040]

Anything you could get for Nolasco, right now, when he's at his lowest value, wouldn't be worth the piece of paper its written on.  If they keep him they at least have the possibility of a servicable starter next year.

 

Do you suppose after this cluncker of a year he'll come to camp ready to prove something??

 

Well, he did say he will be "hungry" next year.  He is probably a hit with Gardy, the one liners that don't really mean anything and are not quanifiable.  For those of you who thought he was going to be "hungry" this year, um....sorry?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Which speaks to the need to develop those guys rather than pay them when they're 30-31 years old and on the downhill slope of their careers. 

We didn't sign/draft many guys with that potential for many years either.

[Kwak]

Well, he did say he will be "hungry" next year.  He is probably a hit with Gardy, the one liners that don't really mean anything and are not quanifiable.  For those of you who thought he was going to be "hungry" this year, um....sorry?

That turkey was stuffed with $49MM--it's impossible to be hungry.

[kab21]

Nolasco for Crawford?

 

Crawford's actually had a decent bounceback. He is owed 24m more than Nolasco over the next 3 years.

 

edit: Looks like CC has a limited no-trade clause in his contract.

 

This is the type of creativity that would be needed to trade Nolasco.  However this would require unprecedented creativity to do.  That's the reason that I don't think it has any chance of happening.  It is a win-win for both teams also since the Dodgers need to move an OF'er and are quite thin in the rotation.

 

But I am 99% sure that Nolasco will be a Twin on opening day.

[Pius Jefferson]

I just hope he's good enough for long enough to garner interest from another team because I don't see him ever being of value long-term for the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is a win-win for both teams also since the Dodgers need to move an OF'er and are quite thin in the rotation.

Really? Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, plus Haren with a player option?

 

The Dodgers might be hard to predict, but I don't think they're going to pay big (and taking a gamble on Nolasco would be paying big at this point) to fill the very back end of their rotation with a noted mediocrity.  This year they filled it with a 1-year deal for Haren, the expiring contract of Beckett, Paul Maholm, the former Fausto Carmona... last year they filled it by giving up a few non-prospects for Nolasco's expiring deal.

[clone52]

And drafting/scouting them is a different story.  Houston was the team with the foresight to offer him a contract.  Wth pardons to Brad Radke, the Twins haven't drafted/signed AND developed an ace since Frank Viola in 1981 and their only other homegrown ace would have been Bert Blyleven in 1969, though I'd entertain the idea that Dave Boswell would have become one had he not gotten injured.

 

Identifying piitchers that could develop into top of the rotation arms seems to be the biggest issue. Hopefully May and Meyer will work out great, but it would be nice if they could draft their own and not have to deal off assets to acqure these pitchers.  Hopefully Berrios and Stewart make the scouts evaluating the pitchers look good for the first time in a couple decades.

 

How can you give Houston credit for scouting  Santana and not the Twins?  Sure, Houston found him first, but didn't have the foresight to protect him in the Rule V draft and the Twins scouting department realized he would be a good pick.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How can you give Houston credit for scouting  Santana and not the Twins?  Sure, Houston found him first, but didn't have the foresight to protect him in the Rule V draft and the Twins scouting department realized he would be a good pick.

Twins definitely deserve plenty of credit for Santana, and even some for Liriano.

 

I think the draft/sign distinction is important, though, if only to identify why we've basically never been able to find these pitchers as amateurs (or even pitchers with this kind of upside that don't make it for whatever reason)?

 

Thank goodness the amateur slots and spending caps came in 2012.  Hopefully, Berrios, Stewart, and Thorpe represent a new breed of Twins amateur pitching talent acquisition.

[LaBombo]

It's not that they don't want strikeouts. Pitchers just have to have the ability to do that. I'm no Rick Anderson supporter, but "Pitch to Contact" is not the issue. 

An organization that repeatedly finishes last in strikeouts in MLB by a wide margin and talks up "pitch to contact" inspires about as much credibility and respect as Pee Wee Herman saying "I meant to do that".

[bird]

We didn't sign/draft many guys with that potential for many years either.

The last time a clear consensus "ace" was on the board when we drafted was 2013, and we drafted him (Kohl Stewart). The time before that was back in 2001, and they screwed up and took Mauer over Prior.

[bird]

An organization that repeatedly finishes last in strikeouts in MLB by a wide margin and talks up "pitch to contact" inspires about as much credibility and respect as Pee Wee Herman saying "I meant to do that".

The only people I ever hear talking up this pitch to contact garbage on behalf of the Twins are all right here on Twins Daily.

[bird]

I'd love to see a poll of TD contributors on how many pitchers on average in each year's Rule 5 draft are consensus future aces.

 

If one is complaining that the Twins have simply refused or failed to draft those guys, then one must believe there are about one and one half dozen of these fellas in every draft, and we bypass them all the time.

 

It's one thing to wonder, or even theorize, that the Twins have historically not had as keen an eye for pitching prospects as a few other organizations. It's an entirely different thing to make simplistic declarations like we've seen so tirelessly for years.

 

The Twins only draft guys who throw strikes? The Twins avoid guys with velo? The Twins don't know how to recognize a prospect with an ace ceiling? Be fair about it. Could the lack of aces be at least in part because a vast majority of the two dozen aces in existence in MLB today were not available for us to draft?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The last time a clear consensus "ace" was on the board when we drafted was 2013, and we drafted him (Kohl Stewart). The time before that was back in 2001, and they screwed up and took Mauer over Prior.

First of all, I think it was pretty clear I was talking draft AND international signings.

 

And it's not simply a matter of drafting "clear consensus aces" with the top picks of the first round -- that's something a monkey could do (or even lower, a fan on a message board ).

 

It's drafting (or signing) anyone, ever, that can even flash that kind of potential anywhere in pro ball.  We're talking 20 years with Ryan/Smith at the helm, and I'm not sure if we ever signed a single Trevor May type during that time (4th rounder, very dominant A-ball season at young age rocketed him onto prospect rankings).  Bunch of college control guys, Garza easily the standout of the group (and of course we inexplicably traded him right away).  Maybe there were development issues at play too, but it's not like we had guys flash this stuff in A-ball and fail to advance -- we just haven't signed anybody who registered much in the lower minor league levels either.

 

Super-cheapness has been my go-to excuse, but there have been plenty of guys like Trevor May who haven't broke their team's budgets.  The good early returns on the 2012-2013 classes suggest the Twins wanted even more control on bidding for this type of talent, so hopefully we are better going forward.

[Mike Sixel]

Given that there are dozens of SP better than what the Twins have thrown out there for the last few years, I'm guessing other teams are doing better at drafting and developing pitchers. For the last few years, they haven't had a guy you can even call a 3 for more than 1 year in a row that they drafted. How about we even start there, don't build the worst SP staff in baseball for multiple years. Even that would be improvement....

[LaBombo]

The only people I ever hear talking up this pitch to contact garbage on behalf of the Twins are all right here on Twins Daily.

Then maybe when repeatedly asked about it they should have simply said 'We have no idea what you're talking about' instead of saying 'We're tired of talking about it, so we're sticking with the same philosophy but not calling it "pitch to contact" any more, according to a Tom Powers interview, which contains this paragraph:

 

But in truth, the Twins organization got carried away with the term, too. They noted that they drafted fellows who pitched to contact, traded for guys who pitched to contact and described prospects as youngsters able to pitch to contact. To the rest of us, that sounded like an awful lot of contact.

 

So no, it's not the imaginations of a few crazy TD posters...  They've used it a ton, and it is a widely despised phrase.

[tobi0040]

Then maybe when repeatedly asked about it they should have simply said 'We have no idea what you're talking about' instead of saying 'We're tired of talking about it, so we're sticking with the same philosophy but not calling it "pitch to contact" any more, according to a Tom Powers interview, which contains this paragraph:

 

But in truth, the Twins organization got carried away with the term, too. They noted that they drafted fellows who pitched to contact, traded for guys who pitched to contact and described prospects as youngsters able to pitch to contact. To the rest of us, that sounded like an awful lot of contact.

 

So no, it's not the imaginations of a few crazy TD posters...  They've used it a ton, and it is a widely despised phrase.

 

Or the other common phrase "he is not going to strike many guys out, just throw it over and let your defense take care of the rest".

 

That sounds an awful lot like pitch to contact. 

 

In addition. they have a history of stressing pitch counts and convincing strike out pitchers to be "more efficient" by "not trying to strike everyone out".  An obvious example if LIriano.