FA Pitching Targets

[drjim]

I agree we are not doing this.

I believe the high profile opt outs have all been one way though (A-Rod and CC for example).  So the player can opt out after 3 but if they have a Zito like implosion the team can't opt out.  That would be worst case.

 

There is a common denominator there as well - Boras guys signing with the Yankees. Rumors aside that is my prediction for Scherzer too and I would assume some sort of opt out as well. A virtually impossible contract for 25-27 teams in MLB to sign.

[Brandon]

How about Buerhle an his 1 year 19 million left on his contract?  He's not a long term investment or a FA but what about getting him for next year? 

[DocBauer]

I'm afraid of sounding redundant here, but, what the heck.

 

I'm not opposed to the Twins making a major move and signing a big time potential #1 SP. He'll, I'd dance a jig! Point in fact, I don't feel the Twins are that far from being an actual competitive team. Please don't laugh. The argument the past few seasons has been a lack of talent, and lack of depth of talent. But this season, finally, that is begining to change. The jury is still out, we aren't talking final products yet to be sure, but with athletic "talents" like Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Dozier, Hughes, Gibson arriving, possibly Pinto as well, coupled with solid players like Escobar, Nolasco, Perkins and Plouffe...with the likes of Sano, Buxton, May, Meyer, Rosario and maybe Hicks and Berrios, the "talent" and "potential" is starting to arrive, or will soon.

 

The Twins have real money to spend, and I believe they are willing to do so. I just also feel a big SP move has to make at least a little sense. People have been clamoring for promotions for May and Meyer. May gets first shot, shows some flash, but is disappointing at first. Suddenly, his last three starts are solid to good. Meyer is filled with outstanding upside.

 

All I'm saying is, signing a big time FA SP who begins next season between 31-33 next season is probably a huge initial lift to the rotation and the team in general. History would suggest 3 high quality seasons followed by, very possibly, gradually declining seasons from there hopefully, unfortunately, possibly big declines. Is this time table conducive to the rebuild taking place and the arrival and success of the other talented Twins roster around them?

[notoriousgod71]

Chris Young fits the bill.

 

Veteran? Check.

 

Soft tosser? Check.

 

Gives up home runs? Check.

 

Basically guaranteed to miss much of 2015 due to injury? Check.

[kab21]

You strike me as someone who would be aware of the history of 6-8 year contracts for pitchers. People have been making the same arguments you just did to convince themselves to keep signing these disasters.

 

It is 100% about the years, and is exactly the reason mid-market teams like the Twins don't lock themselves into contracts like that

 

That history is silly to look at.  the one thing that it tells me is that the Twins shouldn't get caught up in a bidding war for average pitchers (Hampton and Zito) for elite dollars.  Or really that they shouldn't spend more than 50M for any average players older than 30.

[The Wise One]

That history is silly to look at.  the one thing that it tells me is that the Twins shouldn't get caught up in a bidding war for average pitchers (Hampton and Zito) for elite dollars.  Or really that they shouldn't spend more than 50M for any average players older than 30.

At the time Zito signed his ontract h had won a Cy Young and had 3 all star appearances. Not bad for an average player. Mampton had recently finished 2 in the Cy and had an ERA somewhere in the 3's ndtrending down

[Otto von Ballpark]

At the time Zito signed his ontract h had won a Cy Young and had 3 all star appearances. Not bad for an average player. Mampton had recently finished 2 in the Cy and had an ERA somewhere in the 3's ndtrending down

I think the word "average" here doesn't mean they were average among all players, just that they were closer to average among free agent starting pitchers (the context of this thread) than elite.  They both had pedestrian FIP, BB/9, and K/9 numbers, were both coming from significant pitcher's parks, and in the case of Zito, he was already 3 seasons removed from an elite ERA too.  Those were bad deals on the day they were signed, unless the teams simply had money to burn (which may have been the case).

 

The lesson learned?  If you are going to spend elite money on a player, actually aim to get a thoroughly elite player, and don't get too sidetracked by age or a few million dollars.  Better to get a 32 year old Cliff Lee than a 28 year old Zito, I say.

 

Heck, if you are going to sign any significant FA (Nolasco/E. Jackson level), you may be better off passing on average-ish players too, unless perhaps you have a specific need, money to burn, or are desperate (Twins and Nolasco probably qualify here).  Instead put the money towards an elite level talent.  Elite level guys cost more, of course, but they generally have a lot further to fall before they become useless or net negatives.

 

Of course, not a lot of truly elite level guys reach FA.  Kershaw, King Felix, Sale, etc., all extended before FA.  Lee and Sabathia were pretty special in that regard.  This year, Scherzer and Lester may not quite be "elite" among all pitchers depending on your criteria but they are probably pretty darn close to elite among the available FA SP pool.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Chris Young fits the bill.

 

Veteran? Check.

 

Soft tosser? Check.

 

Gives up home runs? Check.

 

Basically guaranteed to miss much of 2015 due to injury? Check.

I think he's only looking for a one year deal, though, so the Twins don't want him in the short term. If he can sit on the 60 Day DL for a two year contract, that's more in line with their usual additions /snark

[Physics Guy]

Of course, not a lot of truly elite level guys reach FA.  Kershaw, King Felix, Sale, etc., all extended before FA.  Lee and Sabathia were pretty special in that regard.  This year, Scherzer and Lester may not quite be "elite" among all pitchers depending on your criteria but they are probably pretty darn close to elite among the available FA SP pool.

I've seen a few posts mention waiting and not signing an elite FA starter this year and wait to line up better with when our young players have matured a bit more.  So I did a search for 2016 FA:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/2016-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Possible targets include Price, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Latos, Kazmir, Leake, Fister and Kennedy.  The issue is that I seem to remember much the same last year.  I suspect half or more of those guys ends up signing an extension. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yes, if a good to great player makes it to Free Agency, they either were somehow damaged goods or an injury risk  OR they want more money than the original team was willing to shell out for an extension.

 

It means that the guys that  do become free agents are expensive, risky, or both. The Twins saw that before with Nolasco this year. Hughes was a bit undervalued by the Yankees, I bet they woud really have liked to have him back this year given the circumstances. 

 

Hughes is usually the exception rather than the rule for Free Agents, though there seem to be a few of them every year.

[tobi0040]

How about Buerhle an his 1 year 19 million left on his contract?  He's not a long term investment or a FA but what about getting him for next year? 

 

I think something like that is much more likely than signing a top pitcher.  Cliff Lee a few years back had 3/60 left. I could see the Twins giving up a prospect in exchange for a shorter commitement.  In the case of Mark B., it would be more of a salary dump on their end and not require much I am guessing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think something like that is much more likely than signing a top pitcher.  Cliff Lee a few years back had 3/60 left. I could see the Twins giving up a prospect in exchange for a shorter commitement.  In the case of Mark B., it would be more of a salary dump on their end and not require much I am guessing.

Why would a contending team need to dump the one-year salary of a healthy 115 ERA+ pitcher?

[tobi0040]

Why would a contending team need to dump the one-year salary of a healthy 115 ERA+ pitcher?

 

I didn't bring up Mark B., just making a broad statement that somewhere in the league a good pitcher has 2-3 years left with a nice commitment.  I think trading for a player like that is more likely than signing Max Scherzer for $160M.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I didn't bring up Mark B., just making a broad statement that somewhere in the league a good pitcher has 2-3 years left with a nice commitment.  I think trading for a player like that is more likely than signing Max Scherzer for $160M.

If you want to talk likely, standing pat is probably more likely than either of these options.

 

And is this hypothetical player of yours any good?  You brought up Cliff Lee as an example from a year or two ago, but all indications are the Phillies were never interested in simply dumping his salary, they wanted a significant return.  (Same for Hamels.)  Buehrle from a few years ago is a possible example, but that trade was so big, it's hard to say it was a straight dump of Buehrle specifically, even if it was clearly a salary dump trade overall.

 

The guys you are referencing would most likely be Edwin Jackson, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Ricky Nolasco types.  I don't think anyone wants another one of those on the Twins unless they came very, very cheaply (other team picking up most of the tab).  If you want better pitchers than that, you are going to have to pay in talent, and the Twins don't have enough talent to do that right now.

 

I think the better option would be to pony up the dough for a Buehrle circa 2012 FA starter.  Shields is obviously a very different pitcher, but his age and record share some similarities to Buehrle circa 2012.  We wouldn't get him for 4/58 like the Marlins did Buehrle, but we could possibly blow away other offers for him without breaking the $100 million mark.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, signing Buehrle for 4/58 would have been a pretty nice move for the 2012 Twins, instead of the Jason Marquis experience (and as a side benefit, we may not have felt as compelled to buy a ticket for the Ricky Nolasco experience either).  A very good example of where it pays to overpay.

 

Shields should be notably more expensive, but I have a feeling he could be a similar worthwhile target.

[tobi0040]

Also, signing Buehrle for 4/58 would have been a pretty nice move for the 2012 Twins, instead of the Jason Marquis experience (and as a side benefit, we may not have felt as compelled to buy a ticket for the Ricky Nolasco experience either).  A very good example of where it pays to overpay.

 

Shields should be notably more expensive, but I have a feeling he could be a similar worthwhile target.

 

I agree, but that is with the benefit of hindsight.  Not all 4 year deals in free agency turns out well.  But if you lack talent, you can either wait for prospects or go after them.  We have done enough waiting. 

 

I also see risk in the current Twins strategy.  Just about every year since 2007 or so, the Twins have had at least one rotation spot devoted to talent-less veteran.  The price range from $3M (Marquis) to $6M (Pelfrey).  Some could argue we have had $11M the last few years with both Pelrey and Correia. We don't want to give a picher a 4-5 year deal because it is risky, but haven't we give the equivalent of a 5 year, $20-$30M deal to five different pitchers, wthout the upside?  In the case of Livan, Marquis, Pefrey, and Ponson we haven't even had one years worth of pitcing.  So $4M to pay for 10-15 starts is actually MORE expensive, not less.

[nicksaviking]

How about Buerhle an his 1 year 19 million left on his contract?  He's not a long term investment or a FA but what about getting him for next year? 

 

$19 millions for another soft-tossing lefty who needs to rely on his defense to get him 85-90% of his outs?  No thanks.

 

I'm sure the Twins front office still loves him though.

[Linus]

I agree, but that is with the benefit of hindsight.  Not all 4 year deals in free agency turns out well.  But if you lack talent, you can either wait for prospects or go after them.  We have done enough waiting. 

 

I also see risk in the current Twins strategy.  Just about every year since 2007 or so, the Twins have had at least one rotation spot devoted to talent-less veteran.  The price range from $3M (Marquis) to $6M (Pelfrey).  Some could argue we have had $11M the last few years with both Pelrey and Correia. We don't want to give a picher a 4-5 year deal because it is risky, but haven't we give the equivalent of a 5 year, $20-$30M deal to five different pitchers, wthout the upside?  In the case of Livan, Marquis, Pefrey, and Ponson we haven't even had one years worth of pitcing.  So $4M to pay for 10-15 starts is actually MORE expensive, not less.

Very interesting observation and a weakness of TR (who I like).  I remember in his first stint we had Rondell White, Tony Bautista and a couple other fill in veteran free agents who did absolutely nothing.  However, when you added up their salaries, it came out to $10+ million per year which is the equivalent of a good player, especially back then.

[DJL44]

somewhere in the league a good pitcher has 2-3 years left with a nice commitment.

 

Derek Holland

Jeremy Hellickson

Scott Feldman

Chris Sale (ha, good luck)

Bartolo Colon

Ian Kennedy

Josh Collmenter

John Niese

Matt Garza

[James Richter]

Don't look now, but Nolasco's post-DL numbers are pretty close to his career (and 2014 AL) averages, and trending in the right direction.

 

I think the Twins' best option would be to try to get somebody who has been excellent in the recent past but struggled in 2014 on a 1-year deal. Plenty of money to outbid the competition, Target Field is a decent option for someone who's been suffering in a hitter's park, the Twins' offense looks like it can provide better than average run support. A player like that, should they succeed, has value at the trade deadline, or can be given a QO, or the Twins would have first crack at an extension. As some others have mentioned, Masterson, Anderson & Morrow are interesting possibilities in this category.

 

Assuming they ever will, it's probably a year too early for the Twins to be thinking about a Lester or Scherzer caliber FA. If they were to do so, however, they could make the best offer by front-loading salary and offering an opt-out. For example, they could match Tanaka's 7-year, $155M contract, paying out $90M over the 1st 3 seasons and $65M after the opt-out. If he's good, he takes the opt-out, we get a comp pick, and some other team overpays for his decline. If something goes wrong, $16M/year isn't such an albatross, and it's tradeable if he's able to put things back together towards the end of the deal.

[beckmt]

I believe that either Latos or Leake could be had in trade as Cincinnati has too much salary committed and wants to shake up the ballclub(remember the bad Brandon Phillips contract they cannot unload).  Maybe if the Twins could get an extension agreement in place a trade could be the correct thing to do(want Latos not sold on Leake).  I am bringing this up to want the Twins to avoid overpaying average plus ballplayers whose back end of the contracts become an albatross to making a competitive club.  Twins have about a 4 year window with no huge salary commitments outside of Mauer so it should be possible.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree, but that is with the benefit of hindsight.  Not all 4 year deals in free agency turns out well.

I don't know if it's hindsight -- Buehrle was probably one of the safer bets to be solid over the life of a 4 year deal.  Maybe his performance wouldn't be worth $14.5 mil per season, but a guaranteed solid starter on the 2012-2015 Twins was probably worth that much, easily.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I believe that either Latos or Leake could be had in trade as Cincinnati has too much salary committed and wants to shake up the ballclub(remember the bad Brandon Phillips contract they cannot unload).  Maybe if the Twins could get an extension agreement in place a trade could be the correct thing to do(want Latos not sold on Leake).  I am bringing this up to want the Twins to avoid overpaying average plus ballplayers whose back end of the contracts become an albatross to making a competitive club.  Twins have about a 4 year window with no huge salary commitments outside of Mauer so it should be possible.  

These two pitchers are both a year away from FA.  You're not going to get much of a discount on them on an extension, and you're still going to have to give up some talent to get them for 2015.  And the talent overpay (or any talent loss, really) is by far worse for the present day Twins than a simple cash overpay.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Assuming they ever will, it's probably a year too early for the Twins to be thinking about a Lester or Scherzer caliber FA. If they were to do so, however, they could make the best offer by front-loading salary and offering an opt-out. For example, they could match Tanaka's 7-year, $155M contract, paying out $90M over the 1st 3 seasons and $65M after the opt-out. If he's good, he takes the opt-out, we get a comp pick, and some other team overpays for his decline. If something goes wrong, $16M/year isn't such an albatross, and it's tradeable if he's able to put things back together towards the end of the deal.

They could always add cash later if they had to trade such a player, without front-loading.  Pretty sure the Twins won't pursue an elite FA, but I am even more sure they wouldn't bother with any financial gimmicks in the process (and that probably includes an opt-out too -- the Twins seem to like to deal in certainties -- unfortunately pursuing the best players on an open market naturally involves a fair amount of uncertainty).

 

Otherwise, I like your suggestion of aggressively pursuing some upside guys on short deal (even if we were willing to pursue an elite FA, their quantity is so limited there is no guarantee would could nab one).

[USAFChief]

I believe that either Latos or Leake could be had in trade as Cincinnati has too much salary committed and wants to shake up the ballclub(remember the bad Brandon Phillips contract they cannot unload).  Maybe if the Twins could get an extension agreement in place a trade could be the correct thing to do(want Latos not sold on Leake).  I am bringing this up to want the Twins to avoid overpaying average plus ballplayers whose back end of the contracts become an albatross to making a competitive club.  Twins have about a 4 year window with no huge salary commitments outside of Mauer so it should be possible.

 

I've mentioned Latos before as someone with enormous upside who might be available this winter. I think this is a realistic target and someone I hope Ryan takes a real shot at. They're not going to sign any of the top FA's, and I can't see the internal options being enough to turn 2015 around.

[tobi0040]

I've mentioned Latos before as someone with enormous upside who might be available this winter. I think this is a realistic target and someone I hope Ryan takes a real shot at. They're not going to sign any of the top FA's, and I can't see the internal options being enough to turn 2015 around.

 

I like Latos but I am not sure I see a fit. He is a free agent after next season.  So you have to give up prospects and sign the guy (or give up top prospects for a rental).  He has a career 3.41 ERA, much better than Homer Bailey who got a $100M deal a year from free agency.

 

Do we want to trade one of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, or Dozier and then dole out a $100M deal?