FA Pitching Targets

[Pius Jefferson]

If they decide to sign a mediocre starting pitcher please make a it a mediocre starter in the American league.

 

If the story is accurate about Tommy Milone having a dead arm after only 150 innings, I don't see the necessity of keeping him around.

[DJL44]

With Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell, Milone,  Sean Gilmartin, it makes no sense for  the Twins to go after Mediocore pitchers. They have a AAA staff full of them. With Trevor May, Phil Hughes, Gibson, Alex Meyer and Mike Pelfrey (like or not and I dont, we are stuck with him) It makes no sense for the Twins to go after anybody right handed. That really leaves Lester as the only real option to sign. I seriously, seriously doubt that the Twins will out bid Boston and Chicago for Lester. I also doubt with the starting options the Twins have they go out and sign a Corria type pitcher. They already have one...Pelfry. The Twins aren't going to sign any starting pitchers this year. That is my opinion. Next year is all about finding what sort of Depth they have. Meyer, May, Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco is going to be your June rotation barring injury.

 

Johnson or Darnell might make the team as a long reliever but they're a far cry from mediocre starting pitchers. Handedness doesn't matter at all if the pitcher is effective.

 

I do agree that there is no reason to sign another low-end innings eater like Correia or Pelfrey. I'm not sure there was ever a reason to do that.

 

May has not earned a job yet in my opinion. I think there will be one spot for Meyer or May.

[tobi0040]

If that's how the contracts shake out, Shields looks like he could be the best value -- real ace potential at 2/3 the AAV, and maybe 60% of the total guarantee, of Scherzer or Lester.  He is a few years older, which is not without risk, of course, but it could be like buying a used luxury car rather than a brand new model.  (Heck, at those prices, you could get BOTH Shields and Santana for the price of Scherzer or Lester -- that would be an interesting debate!)

 

I think 5/80 for Shields is a tad low.  I see him closer to $20M AAV. No doubt he will likely get fewer years than the big two though.  I will try my best and not get too excited about any of these four.  I think a bounce back retread on a minor league deal sounds about right.  Maybe we can send a guy to look at Harden again (joke).  But something like that is much more likely.

 

I have never understood the logic of since we have a bunch of righties we need a lefty.  I don't see much cross over between a righty one day making the lefty the next better.  I think this type of logic can net  a less talented pitcher, something this team does not need.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Here's a list of potential FA Starters, according to MLB Trade Rumors:

 

in ITALICS : I think these guys will stick with their current club/option will be picked up

underlined : I think the Twins should kick the tires on these

 

 

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Scott Baker (33)
Josh Beckett (35)
Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout
A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option
Chris Capuano (36)
Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout
Kevin Correia (34)
Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout
Ryan Dempster (38)
Gavin Floyd (32)
Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout
Jason Hammel (32)
J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option
Aaron Harang (37)
Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014
Roberto Hernandez (34)
Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option
Kyle Kendrick (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (40)
Jon Lester (31)
Colby Lewis (35)
Francisco Liriano (31)
Paul Maholm (33)
Justin Masterson (30)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (34)
Brandon McCarthy (31)
Franklin Morales (29)
Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Peavy (34)
Wandy Rodriguez (36)
Ervin Santana (32)
Joe Saunders (34)
Max Scherzer (30)
James Shields (33)
Misael Siverio (24) - Cuban defector
Kevin Slowey (31)
Carlos Villanueva (31)
Ryan Vogelsong (37)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Jerome Williams (33)
Randy Wolf (38)
Chris Young (36)

 

Then there's also a guy that could be posted for free agency from his Japanese team, right hander Kenta Maeda. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24418251/kenta-maeda-the-next-big-nbp-export-now-that-tanaka-has-signed

[Monkeypaws]

Of course getting Lester would be a nice add to Hughes, both rumored to be available for Santana back in the day.

 

Maybe it's meant to be.

[DocBauer]

My opinion, FWIW, none of the big names excites me. The reason is simple, it's not my money, but it is my beloved team and my common sense.

 

The Twins not only broke tradition, but practically annihilated it last season by signing Nolasco, (who I believe WILL earn the remaining portion of his contract), and Hughes, and even re-signing Nolasco for depth while STILL making an honest attempt at Garza as well. I believe Jim Pohland in sincere in spending money to restore the Twins to a winning, contending club, and feel he proved it with last offseason's signings, and even the Morales shot. I just don't know that the top SP names that are being tossed about make sense. Would the fan in me. E excited if one is signed? Yes! But I just don't know that signing any of the big names makes sense.

 

I'd be ecstatic for Lester or Scherzer! And I've read reports that SEEM to indicate most of the big market, big money teams aren't looking at jumping in to big money, long term contracts. But when push comes to shove, will that actually prove true? I just don't see spending 20M+ for 6-7 years being smart money spent. You have Nolasco signed, a possible extension for Hughes, as well as raises for the other players on roster, not to mention a possible trade or additional FA addition or two to flesh out the roster, while being tied to a huge contract for a SP reaching the 34-35 age. Shields would be even older.

 

I soooo wanted the Twins to sign Scott Kazmir two seasons ago. I sooo wanted the Twins to sign him last offseason. If only they had listened to me and signed both him and Hughes like I dreamed off! LOL

 

I think the Twins would spend real money...even with May, Meyer and Berrios in the wings...18-22M if it was only 3 years. But would any of the big names, or their agents, accept something like that? Serious doubts.

 

I've heard mention of signing an equivalent to Hughes signing. IF the Twins make a move, I think that's the direction they go. Bash the FO all you want, but they have shown lately they are willing to spend, but there is a difference between smart investments and over spending to eventually throw money away on a 35yo pitcher who may be done and still owed money. But they are, I believe, also smart enough to see what they have in front of them, and not sign another Correia or Pelfrey at this point, which is also bad money/investment thrown away.

 

So who IS a potential "Hughes" signing should be the question. Is that Peavy? Masterson?

[biggentleben]

Here's a list of potential FA Starters, according to MLB Trade Rumors:

 

in ITALICS : I think these guys will stick with their current club/option will be picked up

underlined : I think the Twins should kick the tires on these

 

 

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Scott Baker (33)

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option

Chris Capuano (36)

Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

Jason Hammel (32)

J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option

Aaron Harang (37)

Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Hiroki Kuroda (40)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Francisco Liriano (31)

Paul Maholm (33)

Justin Masterson (30)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (34)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Franklin Morales (29)

Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Ervin Santana (32)

Joe Saunders (34)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Misael Siverio (24) - Cuban defector

Kevin Slowey (31)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

Jerome Williams (33)

Randy Wolf (38)

Chris Young (36)

 

Then there's also a guy that could be posted for free agency from his Japanese team, right hander Kenta Maeda. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24418251/kenta-maeda-the-next-big-nbp-export-now-that-tanaka-has-signed

 

Bruce Chen was released, so I'm not so sure he's going back to his team.

[biggentleben]

So who IS a potential "Hughes" signing should be the question. Is that Peavy? Masterson?

 

I think that guy will be Gavin Floyd in this year's market.  I honestly hope the Braves make a move on him for an incentive-laden deal.  He looked very good in his Atlanta starts, and people heard elbow injury and may have lazily assumed ligament/muscle issues, but he should be able to do a winter throwing program and be ready for the first day of spring training.  Plus, the Twins would love to be able to pull another Jim Thome one over on the ChiSox.

[Otwins]

Anyone know why Masterson is so bad this year?  Two of his last three years are very good.  He will turn 30 about when next season starts. He is interesting- price should be reasonable.

[biggentleben]

Anyone know why Masterson is so bad this year? Two of his last three years are very good. He will turn 30 about when next season starts. He is interesting- price should be reasonable.

His stuff can flatten out a ton because of his arm angle. He's always had terrible splits RHB vs LHB in his career, so unless he's dominating one side of the plate, he's just not even an average pitcher. He would be a very good reliever, but he had a good run as a starter, so he'll now be allowed to fail miserably as a starter before being moved to the pen.

[kab21]

My opinion, FWIW, none of the big names excites me. The reason is simple, it's not my money, but it is my beloved team and my common sense.

 

The Twins not only broke tradition, but practically annihilated it last season by signing Nolasco, (who I believe WILL earn the remaining portion of his contract), and Hughes, and even re-signing Nolasco for depth while STILL making an honest attempt at Garza as well. I believe Jim Pohland in sincere in spending money to restore the Twins to a winning, contending club, and feel he proved it with last offseason's signings, and even the Morales shot. I just don't know that the top SP names that are being tossed about make sense. Would the fan in me. E excited if one is signed? Yes! But I just don't know that signing any of the big names makes sense.

 

I'd be ecstatic for Lester or Scherzer! And I've read reports that SEEM to indicate most of the big market, big money teams aren't looking at jumping in to big money, long term contracts. But when push comes to shove, will that actually prove true? I just don't see spending 20M+ for 6-7 years being smart money spent. You have Nolasco signed, a possible extension for Hughes, as well as raises for the other players on roster, not to mention a possible trade or additional FA addition or two to flesh out the roster, while being tied to a huge contract for a SP reaching the 34-35 age. Shields would be even older.

 

edited out

 

 

You say it isn't about the money but then the only reason that you list to not sign a big FA is money.  Strange.

[freshinthehouse]

Throw a godfather 4 year deal at Shields

 

Package Nolasco and 8-10 mill and convince some NL team to take him off our hands

 

Go into next year with:

 

Shields

Hughes

Gibson

Millone/May/Pelfrey/Meyer can fight for the last two spots

 

It's no great shakes, but it's a start.

[DocBauer]

You say it isn't about the money but then the only reason that you list to not sign a big FA is money.  Strange.

Big, long term money tied up in an aging player no longer viable. Possibly to the point of being released, and yet still being paid, still tying up team funds. Sorry, thought I had made that more clear.

[SheboyganBrats]

I'd like to see the Twins spend the big money and sign an ace, but only if they're willing to spend even more to bring in a legit LF and one other player (CF, RF, SS?) to make the team relevant next year.  I don't know why they would spend a ton of money to bring in a big name pitcher and then field essentially the same team. Just to continue piling up losing seasons?  I might be wrong, but I don't think one pitcher, even a very good one, will be able to turn the whole thing around by himself in the early years of his contract.  IMHO, the kids (Buxton, Sano, Santana, Arcia, Vargas, Meyer, et. al.) will take a few years to get over their growing pains once they're all in the majors. It might not be unreasonable to let them develop and wait a year or two before bringing in the big gun, if we're only talking about getting one guy.  I realize that consigns us to watching another season or two of losing baseball until the kids have the kinks worked out, but, realistically, I think that's what we're looking at.

[Physics Guy]

Big, long term money tied up in an aging player no longer viable. Possibly to the point of being released, and yet still being paid, still tying up team funds. Sorry, thought I had made that more clear.

I don't like the idea of "sunk cost" on salaries either, but here's the thing.  Let's say Shields even gets 5yrs/$100M.  Is it possible they don't see much value the last two years?  Sure it is.  But who do the Twins currently have on their roster who will get a big pay day in the next five years?  Mauer's contract expires in four years and Shields' would in five, about the time they have to start paying the new guys on the roster.  They can pay Shields $20M a year and still be well below their "salary cap".  They only have $60M committed for next year.  They can afford it, even if he isn't very valuable at the end of the contract.  At worst, I don't see him worse than what we've been trotting out at the #4 & #5 spots in our rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

Think about that last year as a signing bonus for the earlier years........just part of the cost of having a player be good for 3 years is the bad 4th year. If you aren't willing to live with that, you probably are not ever signing a big time FA.

[kab21]

Big, long term money tied up in an aging player no longer viable. Possibly to the point of being released, and yet still being paid, still tying up team funds. Sorry, thought I had made that more clear.

 

This means that it's still about the money.

 

Sure there are some pitchers that fall apart at the end but many have decent seasons all the way to the end.  And taking this strategy pretty much means that you can never sign a really good FA ever because this is the risk with nearly all of them.

[golfboy1]

I'm not against the Twins going after a top tier FA pitcher but their history indicates they won't so I'm not counting on them changing. If they did, I'd prefer Lester. I'm concerned about Scherzer holding up for much longer...plus he wants $200 million. Shields has been a very good pitcher but he is older & KC's defense & park have helped him out. I'm afraid he will turn into Correia in a couple of years.

 

 One guy that might be worth going after is Edinson Volquez.  He has good stuff, if he stays healthy. They might be able to get him for a 2/3 yr. deal at a reasonable price.

[biggentleben]

I'm not against the Twins going after a top tier FA pitcher but their history indicates they won't so I'm not counting on them changing. If they did, I'd prefer Lester. I'm concerned about Scherzer holding up for much longer...plus he wants $200 million. Shields has been a very good pitcher but he is older & KC's defense & park have helped him out. I'm afraid he will turn into Correia in a couple of years.

 

 One guy that might be worth going after is Edinson Volquez.  He has good stuff, if he stays healthy. They might be able to get him for a 2/3 yr. deal at a reasonable price.

 

I wouldn't touch Volquez with a 10-foot pole.  He has been doing well this season on smoke and mirrors, but looking at his track record, he's not done well multiple times in pitching ballparks.  I'd stay away, and certainly stay away for any multi-year deal.

[Willihammer]

Maeda baby

[drjim]

My opinion, FWIW, none of the big names excites me. The reason is simple, it's not my money, but it is my beloved team and my common sense.

 

The Twins not only broke tradition, but practically annihilated it last season by signing Nolasco, (who I believe WILL earn the remaining portion of his contract), and Hughes, and even re-signing Nolasco for depth while STILL making an honest attempt at Garza as well. I believe Jim Pohland in sincere in spending money to restore the Twins to a winning, contending club, and feel he proved it with last offseason's signings, and even the Morales shot. I just don't know that the top SP names that are being tossed about make sense. Would the fan in me. E excited if one is signed? Yes! But I just don't know that signing any of the big names makes sense.

 

I'd be ecstatic for Lester or Scherzer! And I've read reports that SEEM to indicate most of the big market, big money teams aren't looking at jumping in to big money, long term contracts. But when push comes to shove, will that actually prove true? I just don't see spending 20M+ for 6-7 years being smart money spent. You have Nolasco signed, a possible extension for Hughes, as well as raises for the other players on roster, not to mention a possible trade or additional FA addition or two to flesh out the roster, while being tied to a huge contract for a SP reaching the 34-35 age. Shields would be even older.

 

I soooo wanted the Twins to sign Scott Kazmir two seasons ago. I sooo wanted the Twins to sign him last offseason. If only they had listened to me and signed both him and Hughes like I dreamed off! LOL

 

I think the Twins would spend real money...even with May, Meyer and Berrios in the wings...18-22M if it was only 3 years. But would any of the big names, or their agents, accept something like that? Serious doubts.

 

I've heard mention of signing an equivalent to Hughes signing. IF the Twins make a move, I think that's the direction they go. Bash the FO all you want, but they have shown lately they are willing to spend, but there is a difference between smart investments and over spending to eventually throw money away on a 35yo pitcher who may be done and still owed money. But they are, I believe, also smart enough to see what they have in front of them, and not sign another Correia or Pelfrey at this point, which is also bad money/investment thrown away.

 

So who IS a potential "Hughes" signing should be the question. Is that Peavy? Masterson?

 

Thanks for this post, counter to most of what is said, but also very reasonable and probably realistic.

 

I'm starting to come to this way of thinking, mostly because the Shields contract is going to blow past what I thought was possible a month ago, and I think the Twins are going to have less money than I anticipated.

[drjim]

Think about that last year as a signing bonus for the earlier years........just part of the cost of having a player be good for 3 years is the bad 4th year. If you aren't willing to live with that, you probably are not ever signing a big time FA.

 

This is much more acceptable if the Twins were surefire contenders the next three years. Otherwise you really risk extended mediocrity by pumping up the team in the next year or two when they probably won't be ready to make the playoffs, and then you roster a declining player while the rest of the roster is (ideally) improving.

 

You can't expect the Twins to just swallow 15-20% of their payroll space. The main issue is that Shields (or whoever) is mediocre (but not terrible and not injured) in the later years and the Twins keep running him out when they have a better option in the minors or they would possibly be able to sign a better free agent for the next season.

[DJL44]

I like the idea of Jake Peavy on a 1 year Jack Morris type deal. I like Brandon McCarthy on a 3 year deal. There will be some decent pitching available in the 2nd tier.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

I still think Ryan somehow trades Nolasco this offseason, signs another Correa like pitcher and goes with a rotation of Hughes, Gibson, Milone, May, FA/Meyer out of ST.

Is it really the smart move to trade Nolasco this offseason? I think they might have gotten more for him at the deadline, when a pitching-hungry team would have seen any veteran with a halfway decent track record as an upgrade, than in the offseason when he'll be judged for the generally crappy full season he's had. Who knows what Ryan can pull off but I kind of think the Twins would be better off waiting at least through part of next season and seeing if Nolasco builds his value back up either to trade partners or to them.

 

...and Mike Pelfrey (like or not and I dont, we are stuck with him)

The Twins are stuck paying for him, but I bet they don't treat him as stuck in the rotation. He has one more year on his contract and I think they can stomach having him around as an expensive reliever or AAA starter.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

DJL44, on 12 Sept 2014 - 10:25 AM, said:

    Handedness doesn't matter at all if the pitcher is effective.

 

Exactly.

[Thrylos]

Meyer and Nolasco could be better next season than Hughes was this season.  The Twins' problem now is that they have too many pitchers under contract for 2015.   I see it hard to get another free agent pitcher unless they trade Pelfrey and I really see no takers.  He might actually return and be pretty good.  May and Milone might lose in this scenario...

 

Meyer

Nolasco

Hughes

Gibson

Pelfrey

 

could be a pretty nice rotation.

 

I think that performance is partially a matter of the pitching coach and this will (hopefully) change soon.

[Badsmerf]

I don't really see any chance Pelfrey is good. He has had 2 good years out of 9, both in the NL, and both before 2 season ending injuries. I really don't see much of a chance he is anything other than one of the worst starting pitchers in the league... again. His only chance at saving his career is in the bullpen... and that isn't even a guarantee he'll succeed. I wouldn't even waste my time with him in the starting rotation, even with an assumption he performs well, is his performing well better that 5 guys  that will be on the 40 man roster? I highly doubt it.  I hope there is rioting at TF if he is given a starting rotation spot. 

[Kwak]

Throw a godfather 4 year deal at Shields

 

Package Nolasco and 8-10 mill and convince some NL team to take him off our hands

 

Go into next year with:

 

Shields

Hughes

Gibson

Millone/May/Pelfrey/Meyer can fight for the last two spots

 

It's no great shakes, but it's a start.

Nolasco has 3 years remaining on his contract--he will get a spot in the rotation.

[goliath]

sign Ray Searage

[kab21]

Meyer and Nolasco could be better next season than Hughes was this season.  The Twins' problem now is that they have too many pitchers under contract for 2015.   I see it hard to get another free agent pitcher unless they trade Pelfrey and I really see no takers.  He might actually return and be pretty good.  May and Milone might lose in this scenario...

 

Meyer

Nolasco

Hughes

Gibson

Pelfrey

 

could be a pretty nice rotation.

 

I think that performance is partially a matter of the pitching coach and this will (hopefully) change soon.

 

This is only a problem if the Twins have too many good pitchers in the rotation.  Pelfrey will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot but there is no way that he is guaranteed a spot regardless of his contract.  They certainly don't need to trade him to bring in a FA starter that would be the best pitcher in the entire rotation.