Josh Willingham trade value?

[Curt]

The Twins would take Bryce Harper for Willingham, right? OK no one would offer that much and the Twins would also accept less. So there is a line somewher where, above it, the Twins would accept a deal. This is true for every player on every team. Poorly managed and desperate teams tend to draw the lines in the wrong places. The Twins have misplayed their new stadium so far, imo. I hope they are not desperate but I hope they realize the size of the hole they are in. You have to be willing to part with players who are playing well as they are the only ones with value.

[Guest USAFChief]

I doubt the Twins are seriously considering flipping Willingham. Whether or not it's even a good idea is debatable, and IMO I doubt ownership or management is ready to admit to themselves or the fan base that a total rebuild is necessary. Hell, I'm not sure it is...it's very possible if ownership was willing to spend the money they might be able to buy their way back into contention. The everyday lineup isn't that far away if they can keep the core together and healthy.

[Highabove]

Kind of have to agree with this. I liked the proposed topic because I really wasn't sure what I'd do. I sure don't want Willingham to go, I look forward to his at bats and you are locked in the whole plate appearance. But at the same time if a contender is willing to part with a top prospect and maybe a couple other talents with some upside I'd like the twins to make the trade.

 

And for those complaining about not wanting to watch a game without him since we are rebuilding then don't watch at all ever. This is baseball it happens when you arent a major market team live with it and enjoy watching prospects.

I was not referring to simply watching a game, just turn on the TV for that. I am referring to buying tickets to watch a game.

We just assume that hundreds of thousands of fans will continue to buy tickets and pay Big Market prices to see a bad product.

The Twins can still have a watchable product while they are rebuilding. Even bad teams have a few players who Fans come out to watch.

The Twins are not a Major Market Team, but they are also not a Small Market Team. (subject to change)

[SwainZag]

The Twins would take Bryce Harper for Willingham, right? OK no one would offer that much and the Twins would also accept less. So there is a line somewher where, above it, the Twins would accept a deal. This is true for every player on every team. Poorly managed and desperate teams tend to draw the lines in the wrong places. The Twins have misplayed their new stadium so far, imo. I hope they are not desperate but I hope they realize the size of the hole they are in. You have to be willing to part with players who are playing well as they are the only ones with value.

Ideally the only way the Twins part with Willingham is if someone is willing to overpay at this point. The guy is a historically fast starter, he is 33 years old, he plays a below average defense at a corner OF position and he has 2.5 years left on his contract. As good as his numbers have been thus far, no team is going to give up a over the top prospect package for him.

[Guest USAFChief]

I was not referring to simply watching a game, just turn on the TV for that. I referring to buying tickets to watch a game.

We just assume that hundreds of thousands of fans will continue to buy tickets and pay Big Market prices to see a bad product.

The Twins can still put out a watchable product while they are rebuilding. Even bad teams have a few players who Fans come out to watch.

The Twins are not a Small Market Team ether. (subject to change)

This is spot on. "Don't watch" is about the least insightful response I can imagine. The Twins are in the entertainment business, competing for disposable income. If you seriously think that fewer fans in TF and fewer eyeballs watching FSN is any kind of way to improve the team, or something that ownership/management isn't concerned about, your opinion is seriously flawed.

[twinslover]

Does anyone know how long this team had been looking for a RH power hitter before this year? The answer is forever. I don't think Willingham get moved this year unless the Twins get back major league ready starting pitching prospects and that is very unlikely. Either way, the lineup is and will continue to be irrelevent when it comes to winning if this rotation does not improve dramatically. Remember the Rangers before they loaded up with pitching? They scored tons of runs, but were never a contender. A winning organization always starts with pitching. Terry Ryan knows this and will consider any option available to improve the Twins staff. The only "untouchable" player on this team is Mauer and that's only because no GM would touch his contract.

[Jim Crikket]

This is spot on. "Don't watch" is about the least insightful response I can imagine. The Twins are in the entertainment business, competing for disposable income. If you seriously think that fewer fans in TF and fewer eyeballs watching FSN is any kind of way to improve the team, or something that ownership/management isn't concerned about, your opinion is seriously flawed.

It's a fine line, however. You're right that fans who want the team to eventually improve need to continue supporting it with their eyeballs and their wallets. That said, if everyone does that, it would mean near-sellouts regardless of the quality of the play on the field. That would send the message to ownership that it really doesn't matter how good the talent is or how competitive the team is because people will buy tickets, regardless. There has to be a mix of both... ownership needs to know there ARE consequences to them for not putting a quality product on the field. And fans have to understand that there will be good and bad years and you don't just turn your back on the team when things take a downward turn for a year or two.

[tpb8]

I doubt the Twins are seriously considering flipping Willingham. Whether or not it's even a good idea is debatable, and IMO I doubt ownership or management is ready to admit to themselves or the fan base that a total rebuild is necessary. Hell, I'm not sure it is...it's very possible if ownership was willing to spend the money they might be able to buy their way back into contention. The everyday lineup isn't that far away if they can keep the core together and healthy.

When has this organization EVER payed for high-end free agents? I mean....EVER? They have not and they never will. If you are waiting for them to hold onto all of the vets and then go out and "buy their way back into contention" you are waiting for something that has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. Like Delmon Young walking or Nick Blackburn striking someone out. It just doesn't happen. That's no solution.

 

Look at the history of this organization and look at Terry Ryan's track record and then tell me how they Twins front office is going to address their needs. Deal in reality a little bit.

[Dilligaf69]

Unless they get blown away with an offer which i doubt then they should just keep him. He's already 33 and although VERY affordable you won't get a top of the rotation prospect for him...teams just don't give those types. Next deadline or winter of 2013 if he's still producing then I can see a trade.

[nicksaviking]

It seems that the people who want to hold onto Willingham are thrilled that he is exceeding expectations. So than does that mean he should be traded after he has come back to earth when his value is down and the Twins would get less for him? The next couple of years do not look to be bright so the negativity is going to follow regardless of having a possible 30 HR LF. When was the last time someone said they were happy that the Twins held onto Marty Cordova after two strong first seasons despite the fact that the Twins were in the middle of desperate rebuild mode? A better example would be established star Chuck Knoblauch. Fans were up in arms about trading him away despite the fact that they had just completed their fifth losing season in a row, yet it turned out to be a great move for the Twins and no one's complaining now. Knoblauch was a career Twin who was a big part of the last World Series team. Willingham has been here two months. Fans would get over it.

[Mike Sixel]

I would 100% prefer not to trade Willingham, but I don't see a good path to improving this team other than rolling the dice on a bunch of prospects for veterans. Willingham's $21MM deal is the largest FA deal in Twins' history. let that sink in for a while......back? We all know that in the offseason, they'll say they consider Greinke or some other great pitcher, but it is foolish to tie up that much money and that many years in a pitcher. That will leave them with Marquis quality pitchers to choose from. Go look at the 2B, 3B, SS options next year for free agency, it's ugly. You think Willingham is old? Not even close compared to the names on those lists. If you are not willing to trade your good players, and you won't sign free agents to big money deals, and you won't trade prospects for veterans, how do you propose getting better?

[PMKI]

What kind of prospect could the Twins expect to receive if Willingham maintains what he is doing and the Twins are willing to part ways with him?

[greengoblinrulz]

Agree there 'could' be a market for him, but if you're not blown away with a Type A prospect....not interested.

Don give away a guy like him.....but listen.

[Dilligaf69]

I agree with Bonnes......I just don't want to become a team that's constantly rebuilding...like the Pirates and the Cubs and Royals etc... Also people want Gardy fired...well look at how many managers the teams I just mentioned have gone thru??/ and still they have nothing. I think Span is more likely to get traded and could maybe fetch more then Hammer. I agree they have to upgrade their starting pitching but you would'nt you trade from your OF depth in the minors rather then a cheap RH slugger which we have'nt had in yrs!

[Dilligaf69]

What kind of prospect could the Twins expect to receive if Willingham maintains what he is doing and the Twins are willing to part ways with him?

 

Change your avatar I had it first...

[cr9617]

But is the situation really that desperate? Granted, starting pitching sucks on a historical level, but if one or two things go right that can bounce back quicker than people are thinking in a year or two. If either Diamond or Walters turns out to be a for-real back-end starter, if Gibson recovers well from TJ surgery (which happens more and more all the time), if we pick up 1 or 2 decent arms via free agency, the rotation is no longer a disaster - not where we'd like it, granted, but not a disaster.

 

And notice - over the last 22 games, the Twins are 11-11 - 500 ball. Are we going to contend this year? No. But I'm not assuming that 100 losses is a given. 90, probably, but not 100.

Do you realize how many "ifs" are in this statement? And sooner or later, Walters will most likely come back down to earth and prove he's nothing more than a fill-in. His minor league track record is average, at best. Diamond has only a little more upside than Walters.

Do you really think the Twins will go out and overpay for a free agent pitcher or two? They never have before. The Jason Marquis, Sydney Ponson and Livan Hernadez type guys don't count.

[jmlease1]

The problem is the other side. There is no starting pitching and there isn't going to be any really good starting pitching barring some miracles. And historically, as far as defense goes, THAT'S THE HARD PART. So do you tear down the half that we already are fortunate to have or do you gamble on the other side somehow coming together?

 

I suspect the consensus here is that it needs to be torn down, but that's almost always the easiest (and least interesting) choice in my opinion. One doesn't have to look any further than the Wolves or Gopher football team to realize that sometimes taking a couple steps back just means taking a couple of steps back. Or the Royals or Pirates to see how difficult it can be to build those two cores at the same time to become relevant again.

This is exactly the problem with tossing Willingham/Morneau/Span or even Mauer over the side for prospects. If a bunch of those prospects all come together at the right time and are supplemented with smart FA acquisitions, then the team is back as a contender and could have another lengthy run. The other side of that coin is the Royals, who have been rebuilding for 20 years (2 winning records in 20 years. And how many times have we heard about all the great KC prospects about to break through?). Pittsburgh is even worse (and has made even more foolish FA veteran signings). It's tough to catch lightning in a bottle.

 

Here's the other argument in favor of hanging on to at least some of your veterans: it positions you better to win when a couple of prospects break through, instead of needing 4-6 to be ready at the same time. When the Twins were still in the Dome it made more sense to flip the vets and go looking for more prospects because it didn't make sense to lose money on a team that couldn't win. This Twins team isn't going to win, but as constructed it won't lose money. Keeping some of these veteran assets will help it stay more competitive on the field, too, which will keep butts in the seats.

[Rosterman]

A contract like Willingham's was great for the Twins and is perfect for trading. His worth goes up if he keeps his average high (between .260-.270) and keeps banging the ball.

 

It was a good investment for the Twins, cause he can always switch to DH if the Twins had a viable candidate to replace him in the outfield. Right now, no they don't. Benson is a year away again. Hicks two years. Both can be pushed.

 

And if he is traded, it will be for 2-3 prospect pieces, guys that may contribute, but are blocked from the major in other organizations.

 

It will be interesting to see.

 

No player on the Twins is untouchable. Even Mauer.....

[Mike Sixel]

So which 2B, SS, 3B, RF, SP, SP, SP prospects do you expect to break through in the next two years while Wilingham is here? They were the 2nd worst team in baseball last year, and will probably be in the bottome five again next year. They lose (probably) Liriano and Pavano. I'd expect them to be in the bottom 5-10 again the year after next, Willingham's last year. So, what good will it do to keep him, from a winning perspective? To me, if you lost 85 or 95, it's the same thing.

[Mike Sixel]

That should say bottom five this year....not next year.

[cr9617]

A contract like Willingham's was great for the Twins and is perfect for trading. His worth goes up if he keeps his average high (between .260-.270) and keeps banging the ball.

 

It was a good investment for the Twins, cause he can always switch to DH if the Twins had a viable candidate to replace him in the outfield. Right now, no they don't. Benson is a year away again. Hicks two years. Both can be pushed.

 

And if he is traded, it will be for 2-3 prospect pieces, guys that may contribute, but are blocked from the major in other organizations.

 

It will be interesting to see.

 

No player on the Twins is untouchable. Even Mauer.....

All true.....

 

Except Mauer...he's untouchable, but not from the Twins perspective.

[Dark Kinetic-Grip]

All true.....

Except Mauer...he's untouchable, but not from the Twins perspective.

There is a noble way out of this conundrum for both Joe Mauer and the Twins, but it would require Joe Mauer to man-up as both a man and a true Minnesotan. Go back and rewrite the contract with a $10M/yr guarantee, and a tiered system of incentives leading up to the full $23M/yr. Joe Mauer would return to home-town hero status immediately and forever, he's just got to ask himself, is an extra $100M in the bank going to be enough to make up for where he's actually headed in baseball history?

[bird]

What a great thread! Thanks everyone for an intelligent and thoughtful discussion.

[Shane Wahl]

Willingham is not going to be traded this year given that he has two more years on his contract. Sheesh.

[nicksaviking]

There is a noble way out of this conundrum for both Joe Mauer and the Twins, but it would require Joe Mauer to man-up as both a man and a true Minnesotan. Go back and rewrite the contract with a $10M/yr guarantee, and a tiered system of incentives leading up to the full $23M/yr. Joe Mauer would return to home-town hero status immediately and forever, he's just got to ask himself, is an extra $100M in the bank going to be enough to make up for where he's actually headed in baseball history?

You don't seriously think the players union would let Joe even consider this do you? I really doubt you'd give back your paycheck if your boss said you were doing a satisfactory job but they were hoping for more.

[CDog]

There is a noble way out of this conundrum for both Joe Mauer and the Twins, but it would require Joe Mauer to man-up as both a man and a true Minnesotan. Go back and rewrite the contract with a $10M/yr guarantee, and a tiered system of incentives leading up to the full $23M/yr. Joe Mauer would return to home-town hero status immediately and forever, he's just got to ask himself, is an extra $100M in the bank going to be enough to make up for where he's actually headed in baseball history?

1) Fairly sure major leauge baseball deals can't be re-worked. 2) I've said it before, but it sure is icky to me when people decide they're in charge of what other people should do with their money. 3) He has to buy something to make up for a path possibly heading to the Hall of Fame? Or the positive baseball history that's already done? (Three batting titles as a catcher, for instance.)

[Mike Sixel]

mauer is under no obligation to do anything with his deal. None. He can rework his deal, but it cannot decrease the amount of money he gets, that's a summary of the rule...not the whole rule.

[Dark Kinetic-Grip]

You don't seriously think the players union would let Joe even consider this do you? I really doubt you'd give back your paycheck if your boss said you were doing a satisfactory job but they were hoping for more.

I think perhaps I'm arguing for a strategic and moral direction, more than the a legal or realistic one. The players union wouldn't like it at all--though I understand their point--I recall well how my beloved Oakland A's players were treated in the early 70's by Charles O. Finley, and watched the great players leave one by one, for good reason.

 

From an outside perspective, the current contract practices of MLB seem insane and unsustainable, at least in creating a league where 30 or so teams can *actually compete*. Sigh. Maybe a bit of owner collusion at this point would be a good thing, again.

 

I seriously have just as much fun these days at a Saints game. That's something for MLB to think about, if nothing else.

[2003freak2003]

Too many nerds in here who have probably never played baseball and focus too much on numbers and stats and probably just hopped on the twins train the past 5 years. Mauer Restructure deal will save all. HAHA. You have got to be kidding me.

[jokin]

I would 100% prefer not to trade Willingham, but I don't see a good path to improving this team other than rolling the dice on a bunch of prospects for veterans. Willingham's $21MM deal is the largest FA deal in Twins' history. let that sink in for a while......back? We all know that in the offseason, they'll say they consider Greinke or some other great pitcher, but it is foolish to tie up that much money and that many years in a pitcher. That will leave them with Marquis quality pitchers to choose from. Go look at the 2B, 3B, SS options next year for free agency, it's ugly. You think Willingham is old? Not even close compared to the names on those lists. If you are not willing to trade your good players, and you won't sign free agents to big money deals, and you won't trade prospects for veterans, how do you propose getting better?

 

This is the Twins misconception that they use as an excuse not to do a better job at researching the available FA pitchers and spending a little money and upgrading an obviously glaring need. As I pointed out in another topic, there were plenty of available FA pitchers if the Twins were willing to step up to the plate and fulfill their promise to the fans in return for having a new playground built for them.

 

To reiterate, with the purging of the high-priced players from last season and acquisition of Willingham, Doumit and Carrol, the Twins were down to a $94 Million payroll to start this season, with the subtraction of either a Blackburn or Liriano, the Twins easily could have afforded going after some near-ace-to-decent quality starters and still had their payroll at or below the 2011 $112 Million. Marquis was a joke signing, seemingly everyone except Terry Ryan knew that to be the case. I proposed signing 3 starters with short-term contracts, keeping the risks low and buying time for the TJ-surgery arms to heal and the farm system to produce #3-5 level SPs like, hopefully Diamond.

 

My non-Marquis-type plan was signing these three (who all signed one-year contracts with their current clubs):

 

1)Eric Bedard Age: 33 Team: Pitt. $4.5 Mil. OBA: .247/ WHIP: 1.35/ERA: 3.12

 

2)Paul Maholm Age: 29 Team: Cubs $4.25 Mil. OBA: .245/ WHIP: 1.26/ ERA: 4.62

 

3)Edwin Jackson Age: 28 Team: Wash. $10.958 Mil. OBA: .219/ WHIP: 1.03/ ERA: 3.17

 

<There are no statistical anomalies, most of these numbers are close to their career averages.

 

>The AL average for OBA is .251/WHIP: 1.31/ERA: 4.05

 

>The Twins average for OBA is .285/WHIP: 1.42/ERA: 5.25

 

These guys were very available and a good set of negotiations could have realistically landed all three (admittedly, Jackson would have been the toughest) and, there were others that signed short-term deals that currently sport similar or even better numbers. Even if the Twins overpaid to outbid the other teams to acquire these guys, they still could have come in at a salary number at, or under the 2011 payroll.